Who is your personal saviour?

[Frayed Knot]

With the Mets now guaranteed--by virtue of Bobby Parnell pitching in one game this season, blowing the save, and now being out for the season with elbow surgery--to have their fourth saves leader in the last four seasons:
2011 - Francisco Rodriguez
2012 - Frank Francisco
2013 - Bobby Parnell
2014 - ???
the only question remains as to WHO that leader will be.

So who do you THINK (not necessarily hope, although those two can certainly be the same) will lead the team in saves by the time we put this 2014 regular season to bed?
(we'll consider our post-season closer at a later date)

[HahnSolo]

Chaos will reign. All part of Brian Stokes' ingenious plot to hold on to his record of Five Schaefer Relief Pitchers of the Month awards.

[Ceetar]

Going with Familia.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Going with Familia, 'cause I think I predicted he'd do well
in his prediction thread.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Torn between Mejia and Familia, but voted Mejia because I'm more confident that I know how to pronounce his first name.

[Guest sharpie]

Vic Black straightens out at AAA and wins this race.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Dice-Kloser!

[Frayed Knot]

That Farnsworth vote not looking too secure right about now.

For right now anyway, I certainly wouldn't have an objection to Terry simply going with whichever among Mejia/Familia/Valverde who is freshest / looked best during side sessions / matches up best

Meanwhile I wonder how long a committee closer situation would have to work before someone would admit it even could work? There's probably no amount for some (heard Leiter the other night dismiss the thought entirely) as they'd simply use every blown or even shaky save as evidence against the system ignoring the fact that one in every six to eight one-inning saves are being blown now and only around one-in-three are 1-2-3 innings.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Always bet on... well, you'd probably be best served going with the vet retread, or someone currently on the roster. But color me Black.

[Edgy MD]

It's hard to define when a closer strategy "works." What save percentage do you demand to see to validate the manager's choice? 80%? 85%?

Or, since not all save situations are equal (one-run-lead-bases-loaded-no-out-in-the-sixth and three-run-lead-bases-empty-two-out-in-the-ninth being the most extreme examples), do you demand a subtler metric?

It strikes me that saves blown by secondary figures in the earlier innings help obscure the argument. Such failures do not tend reflect on the manager with the standard designated-closer strategy, but they would on a manager that uses multiple players in save situations because those men blowing it in the earlier innings are also part of the mix of potential finishers.

[Frayed Knot]

--- It's hard to define when a closer strategy "works." What save percentage do you demand to see to validate the manager's choice? 80%? 85%?

Which is a large part of the point. No strategy is perfect but you get the idea that all it takes is one blown save by a guy without the term 'designated closer' stamped on his forehead for half the world to pronounce the 'closer by committee' to be a failure. By blown save #2 the other half jumps in.





--- Or, since not all save situations are equal (one-run-lead-bases-loaded-no-out-in-the-sixth and three-run-lead-bases-empty-two-out-in-the-ninth being the most extreme examples), do you demand a subtler metric? It strikes me that saves blown by secondary figures in the earlier innings help obscure the argument. Such failures do not tend reflect on the manager with the standard designated-closer strategy, but they would on a manager that uses multiple players in save situations because those men blowing it in the earlier innings are also part of the mix of potential finishers.

That's why I tracked only the one-clean-inning save situations last year (and am doing it again this season). It's both the most common type of save that 'closers' (however you want to define them) are brought into and it's the most even playing field on which to judge.

[Frayed Knot]

The race as of (almost) the end of May

Jennry Mejia = 4
Kyle Farnsworth = 3
Jose Valverde = 2
Carlos Torres = 1
Daisuke Matsuzaka = 1
Jeurys Familia = 1


I suspect that no other team has had six different pitchers record a save in not quite the first 1/3 of the season.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: The race as of (almost) the end of May Jennry Mejia = 4 Kyle Farnsworth = 3 Jose Valverde = 2 Carlos Torres = 1 Daisuke Matsuzaka = 1 Jeurys Familia = 1 I suspect that no other team has had six different pitchers record a save in not quite the first 1/3 of the season.

If only Parnell had gotten that strike call, we'd have 7!

[Edgy MD]

I'll take the first 10 years:

1962: 5 different pitchers earning saves.
1963: 6
1964: 8
1965: 10
1966: 8
1967: 6
1968: 7
1969: 6
1970: 9
1971: 3

Good luck finding an opener casting call for closer than 1965:

[list:1iwqajse]Ribant: 3
Richardson: 2
Eilers: 2
Fisher: 1
Jackson: 1
McGraw: 1
Parsons: 1
Bearnarth: 1
Kroll: 1
Lary: 1[/list:u:1iwqajse]

[seawolf17]

Yeah, but all those years were pre-LaRussa, so they don't count for "Saves."

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, my comment about teams being unlikely to have saves from six different guys was about other teams in this ~1/3 of a season.
The Yanx come to mind because of Robertson being hurt for a time but even they've had just four, and not nearly as democratically distributed -- Robertson - 11; Shawn Kelley - 4; and Warren & Phelps 1 each.
I suspect most other teams top out at two or three this early in the season, especially since I can't think of too many closer injuries so far.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I just wondered if we were trending toward a team record.

[Edgy MD]

Mejia: 7
Farnsworth: 3
Torres: 2
Valverde: 2
Familia: 1
Matsuzaka: 1
Eveland: 1

Plenty of season left!

[Ceetar]

I hope Anthony Recker gets on this season.

Who's the most likely guy to throw 3 innings in a 18-3 Mets homer-fest anyway?

[seawolf17]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/fieldPitch.shtml

Looks like the last non-pitcher to get a save was Erv Dusak in 1950, after spending the late 1940s as a utilityman.

The only other postwar guys came up as pitchers. Rick Ankiel got a save, but was a pitcher first, fielder second. Willie Smith did the same. Johnny Lindell came up as a pitcher in 1942, got a save, but then became a non-pitcher, although it looks like he went back to the mound late in his career (but didn't record a save).

[Guest themetfairy]

I felt like bumping this for a mid-season look at our choices.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Black is Black. I want my wager back.

[Edgy MD]

Mejia: 14
Farnsworth: 3
Torres: 2
Valverde: 2
Familia: 1
Matsuzaka: 1
Eveland: 1

Farnnie and Valverde are in the clubhouse, so to speak, but surely we can get Black in on this action. Torres, Rice, Germen... what say you?

OK, maybe not Rice.

[Zvon]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Black is Black. I want my wager back.

haHA. Ditto.

[Frayed Knot]

To reiterate a rushed post in the IGT: Mejia is on a BAD run lately.

- This is now SIX straight outings for Jennry with [u:211g3fqr]2 or more hits allowed[/u:211g3fqr], all one inning outings except for today where he never reached one full IP.
That he managed to squirm out of allowing runs to score in 3 of those 6 outings might make things seem not nearly as bad as it could be.

- Those most recent six games now include two Blown Save/losses

- He's had a "clean" inning (no hits, no walks) in just one of his last 12 appearances.

- Season long ERA is now approaching 4.00


The 'good' thing about this stretch is that we're not dealing with a closer who was lured and signed and paid with some sort of promise (spoken or implied) that he be stamped with the words 'THE CLOSER' on his forehead come hell or high water. IOW, one of the advantages of dealing with a young closer like this is that it should be easy to change on the fly, even it it's just for a short time.
It may be time that Familia, or maybe even Edgin, take the reins for the immediate future while Mejia sorts out his problems or his injuries or whatever.

The race for saves leader isn't over yet!!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The kind of pen we have at present kinda SCREAMS "Closer By Committee," don't it?

[Frayed Knot]

It'd be fine by me if that's the way they went.
The only obstacle is going to be tuning out all those who'll be in a rush to declare it a failure before such heresy can even begin.

[ashie62]

We may need Jesus to save.....

[Edgy MD]

Which is fine.

Part of the the strength of building a solid foundation to your organization is that you don't have to stay wedded to the plan as drawn up. People should be able to step in for each other. People shouldn't have to pitch through injuries.

I'll also put in that category refusing to replace Flores in late-and-close situations.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, Mejia has been terrific, but I'd let him have the surgery and let Jeurys take over for a while. How long does it take to recover from hernia surgery? Is it possible that Mejia would be able to pitch again this year?