Nothing But Flores

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

That's the shortstop position in Vegas.

Wilmer's only hitting a little, for him, so far but has played SS for 15 games and the Vegans are winning most of them.

How soon do you dare?

[seawolf17]

Now. They shoulda stuffed Tejada in Ike's suitcase.

[Edgy MD]

It's up to Terry and what his stomach can handle. Fans have to be realistic too.

I really think a young MLB-er needs to be told to consider his position as "hitter" and approach it that way. If you can figure out how to hit major league hitting, you can refine your defensive work later. If you can't, it doesn't matter. We'll figure out a position for you... IF you hit.

In the meantime, you're young enough to get by defensively on your youthful spryness and vigor, and what you learned in the minors.

So we should measure him that way. If we think he's right now a big league hitter, sure, plug him in at short a few days a week. As that's not particularly established, I think it's getting ahead of things to try him as a full-timer over there.

[MFS62]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: That's the shortstop position in Vegas. Wilmer's only hitting a little, for him, so far but has played SS for 15 games and the Vegans are winning most of them. How soon do you dare?

When his OBP (now .338) exceeds Tejada's OPS.
Should be any day now.
Later

[Vic Sage]

tick, tick, tick... as soon as he gets on a roll down there, get his bat in our lineup. We're giving up too many ABs per game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm glad they're trying this in Las Vegas.

And I hope it works.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Flowers are nice anytime.

[Guest vtmet]

Vic Sage wrote: tick, tick, tick... as soon as he gets on a roll down there, get his bat in our lineup. We're giving up too many ABs per game.

IMO, games are won by outscoring your opponent, and then protecting the lead once you have one...even Tom Seaver couldn't win if the Mets were shutout...

might as well use the Davey Johnson principle:
use the offensive (but defensively challenged) shortstop to start the games; and if you have a lead when the bullpen comes in, replace him with Rafeal Santana, I mean Ruben Tejada...

I would say give it until the beginning of May when it starts to warm up a bit in NY (offense typically sucks in Queens on April nights because it's too cold anyhow)...and then let Flores play the role of Hubie Brooks, Kevin Mitchell and Hojo...with Tejada or someone else, playing the role of late inning defensive understudy...

[Vic Sage]

yes, this was the plan i and others advocated in ST... except for the "wait for May" part.

[Edgy MD]

Flores goes down with a jammed finger. Not expected to be serious, but they're sending him for X-rays.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

CUT THE CRAP, DOCTOR, AND HIT ME WITH THE STRAIGHT TRUTHITUDE-- WILL HE EVER FIELD AGAIN???????

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

So look guys, I like Flores. I'm about at the point where I've seen enough of him to say I think he can really hit.

I'm open to the possibility of flipping him but think it's a no-brainer to keep him around as Plan A at second base next year (Herrera, who looks to me like he needs 4 months in AAA, is Plan B and Reynolds/whomever is Plan C.

Muffy goes in a deal for a SS or relief pitcher or OF or whatever.

Yes? No? Why?

[Vic Sage]

They should deal whichever they can get the most for, maybe in a package with an arm, to get either a legit lead-off guy or a slugger, one a SS the other a RFer. Then go out and get the other one, either thru trade or FA.

[Ceetar]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: So look guys, I like Flores. I'm about at the point where I've seen enough of him to say I think he can really hit. I'm open to the possibility of flipping him but think it's a no-brainer to keep him around as Plan A at second base next year (Herrera, who looks to me like he needs 4 months in AAA, is Plan B and Reynolds/whomever is Plan C. Muffy goes in a deal for a SS or relief pitcher or OF or whatever. Yes? No? Why?

Wait wait, you think he can really hit? What have you seen that I haven't?

If anyone wants him and will give us something for him.. sell sell sell as fast as possible.

[Edgy MD]

I'm still open to him, but he seems like he's all arms up there. Not using his legs and torso, and can't really get good wood on anything that isn't in his wheelhouse. The hand-eye coordination is great, but that seems like the bulk of what he has. Square contact has often led to soft liners.

He could put years into polishing his fielding, but what he's got to do is hit and hit and hit enough that his fielding doesn't particularly matter. If he can't OPS at .800 at least, he's not particularly of use, I think.

[Frayed Knot]

- I think he can play 2B
- not sold on him as an everyday SS although more sold than I was that he can at least fake it there part time
- not sure how big a hitter he'll eventually be
- remember that he's still young, [u:31wfq433]several years[/u:31wfq433] younger than the likes of Lagares, deGrom, Harvey, Nieuwenhuis, Mejia, Familia, d'Arnaud, den Dekker, Satin, Campbell. Of current Mets, only Wheeler, Tejada & Montero are within a year and a half of his age, and only Herrera is younger.
- I agree that Herrera needs a half year or more of AAA ball and so not to pencil into the April lineup

All that said, I'm not averse to trading almost anyone for the right price and don't view Flores as a 'Must Keep'.
As I and others have been saying much of this year, a lot of these decision pivot on Muffy.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: All that said, I'm not averse to trading almost anyone for the right price and don't view Flores as a 'Must Keep'. As I and others have been saying much of this year, a lot of these decision pivot on Muffy.

If we're desperate for salary manipulations, which I'm sure some feel that we are, than sure, you might go Flores and let Murphy walk, but it's hard to imagine trading Murphy for more offensive production unless some other team just has absolutely no one to play the position and feels they can spare an outfielder that's a little bit better for him, but then isn't any gain offset by the gamble that is playing Flores or Herrera?

[Edgy MD]

Trading Murphy ain't letting him walk.

is it a gamble? Sure, all trades are. Certainly with somebody as ridiculously consistent and reliable as Murphy. But can they get an offensive upgrade? By packaging him with Niese or Gee or Colon, they sure can.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Trading Murphy ain't letting him walk. is it a gamble? Sure, all trades are. Certainly with somebody as ridiculously consistent and reliable as Murphy. But can they get an offensive upgrade? By packaging him with Niese or Gee or Colon, they sure can.

Err, Murphy's not a free agent. We're not actually suggesting the Mets might just say "fuck it, no arb for you." are we?

yes, sure, there are packages out that that might include Murphy, my point is simply that if you're trading offense to get offense, you better be getting a damn good player.

[Frayed Knot]

Dealing Murphy, if it happens, isn't about saving money, it's about deciding whether to make a long-term commitment to him or not.
We--and Sandy, and Fred & Jeff, and everybody else in the world--know what Danny Boy is at this point. He'll turn 30 by opening day 2015 and can become a FA a year and a few weeks from now.
The options are whether to keep him for another year, to sign him long term sometime in the next year, or to deal him away this winter in an effort to plug other holes while there appear to be several candidates who can play his position.

I'm not advocating that one choice here is the lone correct one, only that a number of other moves may depend on how they pursue this one.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Dealing Murphy, if it happens, isn't about saving money, it's about deciding whether to make a long-term commitment to him or not. We, and Sandy, and Fred & Jeff, and everybody else is the world knows what Danny Boy is at this point. He'll turn 30 by opening day 2015 and can become a FA a year and a few weeks from now. The options are whether to keep him for another year, to sign him long term sometime in the next year, or to deal him away this winter in an effort to plug other holes while there appear to be several candidates who can play his position. I'm not advocating that one choice here is the lone correct one, only that a number of other moves may depend on how they pursue this one.

It's this point I'm contesting. I don't know that any of the options would put up the production Murphy's almost a lock for next year. So I think any move to fill other holes potentially opens up another one.

[Frayed Knot]

'Play his Position' doesn't mean they'll replace him exactly, only that there are other options there and that even if there's a decline from him to [Fill in Blank] it may be worth it to strengthen the team elsewhere.

The worst thing teams can do is to convince themselves that a particular player is irreplaceable. Very few are, and Murphy's not one of them.
He hits but doesn't walk a lot; he hits doubles but not many HRs; he plays an up-the-middle position but not particularly well; he's on OK runner but gets dopey now and then; he's dependable except for when he's not (1 completely missed season and a big chunk of another); and he's about to turn 30.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Trading Murphy ain't letting him walk. is it a gamble? Sure, all trades are. Certainly with somebody as ridiculously consistent and reliable as Murphy. But can they get an offensive upgrade? By packaging him with Niese or Gee or Colon, they sure can. Err, Murphy's not a free agent. We're not actually suggesting the Mets might just say "fuck it, no arb for you." are we?

The term "let Murphy walk" originated with your post.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: Trading Murphy ain't letting him walk. is it a gamble? Sure, all trades are. Certainly with somebody as ridiculously consistent and reliable as Murphy. But can they get an offensive upgrade? By packaging him with Niese or Gee or Colon, they sure can. Err, Murphy's not a free agent. We're not actually suggesting the Mets might just say "fuck it, no arb for you." are we?

As if this needs answering: No, no one is suggesting non-tendering him this winter.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: 'Play his Position' doesn't mean they'll replace him exactly, only that there are other options there and that even if there's a decline from him to [Fill in Blank] it may be worth it to strengthen the team elsewhere. The worst thing teams can do is to convince themselves that a particular player is irreplaceable. Very few are, and Murphy's not one of them. He hits but doesn't walk a lot; he hits doubles but not many HRs; he plays an up-the-middle position but not particularly well; he's on OK runner but gets dopey now and then; he's dependable except for when he's not (1 completely missed season and a big chunk of another); and he's about to turn 30.

I'm not saying he's irreplaceable, I'm saying at the moment the Mets don't have the parts to replace him with and his contributions are very much needed. I mean, the next best option right now is probably Tejada.

But Murphy machinations aside, this is about Flores, and him not having shown anything approaching major league ability.

[Frayed Knot]

"I'm not saying he's irreplaceable, I'm saying at the moment the Mets don't have the parts to replace him with and his contributions are very much needed. I mean, the next best option right now is probably Tejada." --- So you're not saying that he's irreplaceable, only that the Mets' current situation makes him currently irreplaceable. Again, you need to avoid getting hung up on that idea. They have several in-house options to replace him and then there's always outside help. Maybe the options don't exactly match current production but that's hardly a given.




"But Murphy machinations aside, this is about Flores, and him not having shown anything approaching major league ability. -- I don't buy that at all.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: "But Murphy machinations aside, this is about Flores, and him not having shown anything approaching major league ability. -- I don't buy that at all.

sorry sorry.

He hasn't shown anything approaching major league production. He might have the skillset to hit. He's certainly still young. But that's not a gamble I'm willing to take. I'd rather trade a better prospect or pay more money or whatever is need for a left fielder than try to include Murphy and roll with Flores.

[Edgy MD]

I'm confused too. If you trade a guy worth 4.5 wins, you either get a package back worth the same (replaced!) or more (shwing!), or less (doh!). They get worse maybe at second but improve somewhere else, or perhaps don't improve but cut salary to be invested somewhere else.

The Yankees traded Alfonso Soriano in his beautiful youthful prime. That was 5.4 wins going out the door. Who were they going to replace him with? Miguel Cairo? Seriously? Booo!

But then, the guy they traded him for, Alex Rodriguez, produced 7.6 wins. Yayyy! I mean, Booo!!!

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm confused too. If you trade a guy worth 4.5 wins, you either get a package back worth the same (replaced!) or more (shwing!), or less (doh!). They get worse maybe at second but improve somewhere else, or perhaps don't improve but cut salary to be invested somewhere else. The Yankees traded Alfonso Soriano in his beautiful youthful prime. That was 5.4 wins going out the door. Who were they going to replace him with? Miguel Cairo? Seriously? Booo! But then, the guy they traded him for, Alex Rodriguez, produced 7.6 wins. Yayyy! I mean, Booo!!!

well, assuming they need to cut salary to invest elsewhere, that's something else. And that's what that A-Rod Soriano trade was. And required some shuffling AND a sacrifice of defensive value on A-Rods part by playing a lesser player at his best position.

But if you put together a package and trade 4.5 wins of player and get back 5.5, but end up playing a 3.5 win player where that 4.5 guy was.. What have you really accomplished.

I'm not saying there aren't trades to be made. But I think Flores might be the more valuable trade pawn anyway. He's the young guy with tools, Murphy's the known quantity with a year left before FA. You're better off trading for the best plug for the LF (or SS) hole rather than trying to spread it around. Too often they've traded the most talented guy in the deal though. McHugh, Pagan. Doesn't always work.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: But if you put together a package and trade 4.5 wins of player and get back 5.5, but end up playing a 3.5 win player where that 4.5 guy was.. What have you really accomplished.

Question mark.

Well, you could argue you've broken even (though I wouldn't), until you factor in what the previous productivity was at the position the 5.5-win guy has been plugged into. Huh? HUH?! HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM HOMERUN APPLES?!

More seriously, right now, I think we're looking at about 2.1 WAR total out of left field, which is higher than I would have guessed.