A healthy worry about Johan Santana

[Benjamin Grimm]

I feel like I should have known this. I'm sure that Santana's contract details have been public knowledge since the Mets signed him five years ago this month, but I didn't remember the specifics. And we've been told, again and again, that Santana's contract comes off the books after 2013 and that this is "almost certainly" his last year with the Mets.

But if he manages to pitch 215 innings, that probably won't be the case:

NY Mets, Terry Collins have a healthy worry about Johan Santana The two-time Cy Young Award winner�s six-year, $137.5 million deal expires this season, but the contract contains a 2014 player option that vests for $25 million if Santana pitches 215 innings in 2013, and is on the active roster for the final 30 days of the season. By Andy Martino / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Thursday, February 14, 2013, 11:37 PM PORT ST. LUCIE - Johan Santana, in public and private, has spent the past few months saying that he has not felt this healthy in several years, and is ready for a strong, full season. If that happens, a vesting option in Santana�s contract could present a complication for Terry Collins, and impact the ace�s midseason trade value. The two-time Cy Young Award winner�s six-year, $137.5 million deal expires this season, but the contract contains a 2014 player option that vests for $25 million if Santana pitches 215 innings in 2013, and is on the active roster for the final 30 days of the season. The vesting option will also be triggered if Santana wins the Cy Young Award in 2013. If the option does not vest, the Mets can buy it out for $5.5 million. What are Santana�s chances of hitting that innings target? He has not topped 200 innings since 2008, but did so in every season from 2004-2008. In 2009, his year ended on Aug . 25 because of minor elbow surgery, and 2010 and 2012 were shortened by major shoulder surgery and its aftereffects (2011 was a complete injury-related wipeout). But this year, if Santana is indeed back to a regular schedule, and is pitching well enough to either help the Mets mount a surprise wild-card run or become trade bait, the vesting option - combined with the ace�s full no-trade clause - could become a focus. Would a contending team want to acquire a player who is on pace to top 215 innings and be owed $25 million at age 35? Very likely not, unless the Mets, Santana�s agents, and the acquiring team are able to work out an arrangement (the Mets could include significant money, or the new team could work out an extension with Santana, for example). Collins dealt with a similar situation in 2011, when closer Francisco Rodriguez had a $17.5 million option that would vest for the following season with 55 games finished. The situation was a distraction for Rodriguez, who once charged into the manager�s office and asked to restructure his contract to eliminate the clause (Collins told K-Rod that he appreciated the thought, but was talking to the wrong team official). Collins said that because the front office did not interfere in the K-Rod situation, he is not worried about managing Santana�s innings. "No, I�ve got to get him ready and let him go pitch," Collins said. "The person that makes it easy is the general manager. He doesn�t give me a hassle. Sandy (Alderson) just said, even with K-Rod, �You pitch him, you use him. We�ll worry about the other stuff.� That made it easy - just go do your job." Santana, who will throw his first bullpen session of the spring this weekend, also said that he could not think about the vesting option this early in the year. "I have a lot of things to worry about," he said. "Health is one of them. For me, to go through the whole season with no problems and be able to do it, that�s what I am going to be focused on, and that�s what I�m going to be able to do. Whatever happens will happen." Asked about the no-trade clause, Santana said, "There is not much you can do. I�m here right now, and I�m going to be here helping this team. That�s the approach you�re going to have. It�s hard to talk about something that you don�t even know. "When the time comes, we�ll approach it and it might be different. But for now, I�m just focused on getting ready."

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Won't happen. If it does I hope its the move the bankrupts Fred.

[Vic Sage]

F-Rod, Act II.

Do they rest him early and often, on the legit pretext that his damaged arm needs as much rest as possible to make it through the season?
Or do they shut him down late in the year, after we're out of it, on the pretext of wanting to give Wheeler his shot?
Or do they trade him at the deadline, making his contract somebody else's problem?
Or do they do what they usually do... nothing.

[Frayed Knot]

12 pitchers threw 215 or more innings last season

Verlander - DET
Hernandez - SEA
Shields - TBR
Kuroda - NYY
Peavy - CHW
Vargas - SEA
Dickey - NYM
Kershaw - LAD
Cain - SFG
Richard - SDP
Cueto - CIN
Hamels - PHI

Only Dickey, Peavy, & Kuroda were over 30

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

I worry that the option will be will be a needless distraction all season. The team should come out and say something like "We hope Johan has a healthy season, wins the Cy Young Award and triggers the option." so we don't have to hear the discussion every time Terry walks out to the mound in the sixth inning.

[Edgy MD]

If he pitches 215 innings, a lot will have worked out well, and it'd likely be a good problem to have.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: If he pitches 215 innings, a lot will have worked out well, and it'd likely be a good problem to have.

You beat me to that. I agree.

Later

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Edgy MD wrote: If he pitches 215 innings, a lot will have worked out well, and it'd likely be a good problem to have.

This is what I was going to say too. I'd be happy if Santana can pitch that much.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sure it would be great if he was healthy and productive and pitched 215 innings.

But if that does happen, that $25 million in 2014 is going to be problematic. Especially if he's injured and/or sucky in that year.

[batmagadanleadoff]

What's the problem? Eff Wilpon sez the Mets are in the money again and everything is beautiful.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Your sarcasm aside, I think even the wealthiest of teams are handicapped when they have to spend $25 million on a non-productive player.

[Edgy MD]

While that's certainly true. If he logs 215 innings, he will certainly have had a productive year, and the Mets would likely have had a profitable year.

He still would be unlikely to be worth that money, but the sting would be lessened.

[smg58]

He'd have to pitch awfully well and be injury-free to get to 215 innings. The Mets have perfectly sound baseball reasons to exercise caution with him, and it would take Johan in his prime to get the inning count to where it would even become an issue. If he's actually on pace for it at the All-Star Break, we can discuss it further then

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't think it's anything to panic about either. But I figure it's something we ought to be aware of. And really, I'm surprised that I didn't already know this.

[Centerfield]

I hope he pitches 214 innings and is robbed of the Cy Young because of a prejudice against pitchers on the same team winning back-to-back Cy Young awards when the pitcher that won it the first year was a knuckleballer who is now no longer on the team.

[G-Fafif]

Through 1991, at least one Met pitched 215 or more innings every season save for 1980, strike-shortened 1981, 1982 and injury-ravaged 1987. Since 1991, only four pitchers have pitched at least 215 innings: Hampton in 2000; Martinez in 2005; Santana in 2008; and Dickey in 2012.

To the intuitive point that you have to be having a pretty good season to compile that kind of workload, it wasn't always the case. Sub-90 ERA+ for Mets with 215 or more IP: Jack Fisher three times (1964, 1965, 1967), Al Jackson in 1963 and Mike Torrez in 1983.

[Benjamin Grimm]

To get to 215 innings, Santana would have to average just about 7 innings per start over 31 starts. (6.94 innings, if you want two decimal points of precision.) If he makes a full 34 starts (which is the most anybody seems to get anymore) he would need to average 6.32 innings per start.

Over his time with the Mets, Santana has averaged 6.57 innings per start. In 2012, it was 5.57 innings per start.

[Guest vtmet]

If they are that concerned about him vesting at 215 innings, then they might as well send him to the WBC...it pretty much had a season limiting effect on just about any Met that attended the 2009 WBC...I know that there are articles that try to prove that the WBC has no effect on injuries; but I disagree with the Mets 2009...

Santana had 5 consecutive 215+ inning seasons prior to 2009, averaging 229 innings and 34 starts...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02-pitch.shtml#2004-2008-sum:pitching_standard
then:
2009: 166 innings;
2010: 199 innings;
2011: nothing;
2012: 117 innings;
true, he could have gotten injuries without going to the WBC, but what did the Mets accomplish by sending all of their key players and big contracts to the WBC?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

vtmet wrote: what did the Mets accomplish by sending all of their key players and big contracts to the WBC?

The org earned the good graces of Bud Selig, which went a very long way. They also got to advance the image they were trying to craft at the time of the Mets as a kind of model of modern diversity and inclusion. That got Omar a Gary Smith profile in SI.

[Guest vtmet]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: what did the Mets accomplish by sending all of their key players and big contracts to the WBC? The org earned the good graces of Bud Selig, which went a very long way. They also got to advance the image they were trying to craft at the time of the Mets as a kind of model of modern diversity and inclusion. That got Omar a Gary Smith profile in SI.

Besides Santana...

Reyes:
2005-2008: averaged 158 games and 741 Plate Appearances;
2009: 36 games; 166 PA's;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesjo01.shtml#2005-2008-sum:batting_standard

Beltran:
2001-2008: averaged 152 games; 665 PA's;
2009: 81 games; 357 PA's;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml#2001-2008-sum:batting_standard

Delgado:
2005-2008: averaged 146 games; 632 PA's;
2009: 26 games; 112 PA's;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/delgaca01.shtml#2005-2008-sum:batting_standard

Wright:
2005-2008: averaged 158 games; 691 PA's;
2009: 144 games; 618 PA's;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml#2005-2008-sum:batting_standard

Of the less significant players,
Putz and Oliver Perez went from 34 starts and 47 games to 14 starts and 29 games respectively;
Feliciano and KRod pitched in as many games in 2009 as they did in 2008;
Fernando Tatis actually seemed to benefit, playing in 125 games and having pretty decent numbers, up from 92 games in 2008...

I think that the NFL should take notice and start having their Pro Bowl prior to the regular season...the WBC may not be directly linked to the injuries, but when you play a 162 game season with a month long Spring Training, you really don't need a "battle of your patriotism" tournament when players are supposed to be getting conditioned for the long haul of the season...

[Frayed Knot]

... Since 1991, only four [NYM] pitchers have pitched at least 215 innings: Hampton in 2000; Martinez in 2005; Santana in 2008; and Dickey in 2012.

In three of those cases, the pitcher in question had thrown at least 215 innings the previous year as well (something which clearly won't be the case with Johan here) and Dickey in 2011 was almost there with 208 innings thrown.

Those same four 215+ seasons were followed up with years which saw the pitcher:
- jump ship and experience a near doubling of his ERA (Hampton)
- make eight fewer starts and throw just 132 innings (Pedro)
- make seven fewer starts and drop to 166 innings pitched (Santana)
- get dealt away and ???? (Dickey)


Not that I'm suggesting a cause and effect here based on those pitchers exceeding 215 IPs.
Like the WBC data this is just too small a sample to start cherry picking conclusions, however tempting that might be.

[G-Fafif]

... Since 1991, only four [NYM] pitchers have pitched at least 215 innings: Hampton in 2000; Martinez in 2005; Santana in 2008; and Dickey in 2012. In three of those cases, the pitcher in question had thrown at least 215 innings the previous year as well (something which clearly won't be the case with Johan here) and Dickey in 2011 was almost there with 208 innings thrown. Those same four 215+ seasons were followed up with years which saw the pitcher: - jump ship and experience a near doubling of his ERA (Hampton) - make eight fewer starts and throw just 132 innings (Pedro) - make seven fewer starts and drop to 166 innings pitched (Santana) - get dealt away and ???? (Dickey) Not that I'm suggesting a cause and effect here based on those pitchers exceeding 215 IPs. Like the WBC data this is just too small a sample to start cherry picking conclusions, however tempting that might be.

One franchise, 21 seasons, four pitchers reaching the mark. It's a rarity around here at this point, so I'm not really worried/enthused about Johan's chances of getting to 215 IP.

[Ceetar]

yawn, chalk this up to "good problem to have" it's also why I floated the gamble of renegotiating his contract into a 3/36 type thing.

But there's a fair shot Santana pitching at a 215 inning pace is going to bring the pennant race, and the money that comes with that, to afford it. Bay's money is still coming off the books, and if things are really looking up, and the Mets are looking up on the field, it probably isn't a huge issue.

[G-Fafif]

May the Mets go so zimmo on the 215 innings Santana throws this year that Fred personally extend him another six years based on the three shutouts he throws in the World Series.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"May we be cursed for a thousand years with such problems!"

-The bubbe in my head

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: yawn, chalk this up to "good problem to have" it's also why I floated the gamble of renegotiating his contract into a 3/36 type thing.

Santana is set to pull down $25.5 this season plus another $5.5 in a buyout even if he doesn't reach the automatic re-up. I don't think he's going to lock himself up for the next two years for what is essentially an additional 5 mill.
Best at this point to just let this season play out and re-evaluate then.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Ceetar wrote: yawn, chalk this up to "good problem to have" it's also why I floated the gamble of renegotiating his contract into a 3/36 type thing. Santana is set to pull down $25.5 this season plus another $5.5 in a buyout even if he doesn't reach the automatic re-up. I don't think he's going to lock himself up for the next two years for what is essentially an additional 5 mill. Best at this point to just let this season play out and re-evaluate then.

When I proposed it it was to free up some money this year to make things happen anyway. I don't remember the numbers I suggested, probably was more like 3/45 I guess ,given his contract. It was probably a gamble not appropriate to this team's situation, but thought it was an interesting thought. I'm not one that thinks Santana's washed up and done.

[ashie62]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: I worry that the option will be will be a needless distraction all season. The team should come out and say something like "We hope Johan has a healthy season, wins the Cy Young Award and triggers the option." so we don't have to hear the discussion every time Terry walks out to the mound in the sixth inning.

This would be ideal but it is New York...You just know we will be hit over the head by the blogosphere around trade deadline time whether the Mets are in First or last...

There will likey be a Santana buy or sell type thread on this forum this season if there isn't already...

[Benjamin Grimm]

It looks like this won't be an issue.

[Centerfield]

If we're inviting Dice-K to spring training, I'd extend an invite to Johan as well.