Santana. . .trade deadline.

[Mex17]

Yes, I know that it's way early to be thinking about this, but I seem to like thinking early about things like this.

IF Santana is healthy and pitching like Santana AND the Mets are hopelessy terrible and out of it by the All-Star Break, would Sandy try to restock the farm yet again?

Here is a quick, hasty, list of teams that will probably be contending, along with a few of their better prospects that I put together, focusing on OF and a little bit of lefthanded pitching. Maybe some of you know more about them than me?

TIGERS
-Nick Castellanos

CARDINALS
-Oscar Tavares

REDS
-Billy Hamilton, Tony Cigrani

RANGERS
-Mike Olt, Leonys Martin (basically the Dickey package that I wanted from them , only now with Johan)

ROYALS
-Bubba Starling

RED SOX
-Jackie Bradley, Bryce Brentz

BLUE JAYS (again)
-Anthony Gose, Daniel Norris

[Edgy MD]

I guess it isn't too early, but the eggs are going to be scrambled many times over by then.

[ashie62]

We will need Santana in October..

[Theoldmole]

I like that.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mex17 wrote: IF Santana is healthy and pitching like Santana AND the Mets are hopelessy terrible and out of it by the All-Star Break, would Sandy try to restock the farm yet again?

Well, yes, if those two things happen, then looking to deal Santana would be the wise thing to do.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mex17 wrote: IF Santana is healthy and pitching like Santana AND the Mets are hopelessy terrible and out of it by the All-Star Break, would Sandy try to restock the farm yet again? Well, yes, if those two things happen, then looking to deal Santana would be the wise thing to do.

Especially because based on what's been going on and finances (barring a WS run I guess) the Mets just simply can't afford Santana next year even if he wins the Cy Young.

but those two things are working against each other. The more Santana is like Santana the less likely the Mets are hopelessly terrible (hopelessly terrible seems like a long shot anyway)

[Edgy MD]

If the Mets can afford him this year, they can afford him next year.

The question is whether that's the best use of resources, now or later.

[Frayed Knot]

Keep in mind that ...

- there's the no-trade thing to work around.
Those can usually be overcome but they also throw an additional obstacle into the works

- there's money thing to work around:
Will some team be willing to take on even a half-season of Johan's bill and/or will the Mets be willing to eat a portion of it? The more they eat the better the theoretical haul but, as we know, dollars are precious these days.

- there's the problem about the receiving team only getting 1/2 season of Johan - maybe 15 starts worth.

Remember that Dickey was for a full season at a cheap rate* and was considered at least a low-ish risk for the receiving team to extend. Johan would have none of those things going for him so don't expect the same exchange. Yeah, Beltran was just for half a season but he was also an everyday player and Wheeler, despite being promising, was only in A-ball at the time. Guys like Tavares and Olt are among the brightest stars in the prospect market these days and are already in the upper minors.


The idea isn't wrong (even if a bit premature) but I think you'll need to adjust your sights.






* Johan is essentially a $31 million pitcher this year: salary of $25.5 plus there's a $5.5 buyout in order to get out of 2014.
IOW, Johan for 1/2 season costs about 3x what Dickey does for the entire year -- and he might want that option picked up in order to agree to waive the N-T clause

[Lefty Specialist]

Ashie62 wrote: We will need Santana in October..

To round out the foursome for golf?

[smg58]

Two months of Beltran netted us Zach Wheeler, and Beltran was a big injury risk too. If Johan is pitching like Johan (admittedly an enormous if), he should get us a similar catch.

[Vic Sage]

The more Santana is like Santana the less likely the Mets are hopelessly terrible (hopelessly terrible seems like a long shot anyway)

Santana can pitch like vintage Santana, and we could still suck enough to be out of it by July. (e.g., see Dickey, RA / Cy Young season / 2012 Mets)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I would bet against Santana pitching like Santana.

[Vic Sage]

as would i, which makes his trade value for a 2-month rental (considering his massive salary) virtually nil. But i thought the same of Beltran. So I would take a solid A-Ball prospect for Santana in July. Hell, i'd be happy to just give him away for the payroll relief if i thought for a moment that the Wilpons would use the money saved on scouting, player development or draft bonuses, instead of just debt service. But they won't, so let him play out the string, unless somebody comes along with a good offer.

[Fman99]

I refuse to speculate on something like this in December. The idea that we're already selling off pieces at the 2013 deadline makes me sick.

Quit being a bunch of defeatists.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: The more Santana is like Santana the less likely the Mets are hopelessly terrible (hopelessly terrible seems like a long shot anyway) Santana can pitch like vintage Santana, and we could still suck enough to be out of it by July. (e.g., see Dickey, RA / Cy Young season / 2012 Mets)

I didn't say that. But they DO work against each other.

[nymr83]

Santana is old, if there is a good offer, take it. The refusal to accept that your team should be in rebuilding mode led to a decade of Knicks suckitude, I don't care to repeat the experience.

[ashie62]

At this point Santana is too big a question mark to even speculate.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Might as well trade him and Wright while they're at it.

[Gwreck]

Fman99 wrote: The idea that we're already selling off pieces at the 2013 deadline makes me sick. Quit being a bunch of defeatists.

How did selling off pieces in December 2012 make you feel?

[ashie62]

Made me numb...seen alot of this since 1966...

[Fman99]

Gwreck wrote: Fman99 wrote: The idea that we're already selling off pieces at the 2013 deadline makes me sick. Quit being a bunch of defeatists. How did selling off pieces in December 2012 make you feel?

Like shit. I wanted to, you know, come out to root for a DEFENDING Cy Young winner in a Mets uniform, and they blew that up.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Frayed Knot wrote: * Johan is essentially a $31 million pitcher this year: salary of $25.5 plus there's a $5.5 buyout in order to get out of 2014. IOW, Johan for 1/2 season costs about 3x what Dickey does for the entire year -- and he might want that option picked up in order to agree to waive the N-T clause

Santana's buyout is essentially a sunk cost for the Mets, so it's likely they'll be prepared to swallow that (the only way they can really avoid paying it is if more than one team is interested at trade deadline or a particularly brain-dead GM is involved).

[Edgy MD]

So, I guess this didn't happen.