Winter Signings of 2012-2013

[metsmarathon]

i wouldn't mind seeing pelfrey back, but at a lesser salary than he would otherwise have been due. maybe stuff it with some bonuses. the dude's got potential, he just struggles to harness it fully. and his start to the season was certainly promising.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree; I'd be fine with bringing Pelfrey back, but not at the salary that he'd have to get if he wasn't non-tendered. It's a necessary move.

[Frayed Knot]

BJ Upton to the Braves - 5 year deal

Essentially then he'll replace Michael Bourne. Younger than Bourne but with more power, lower OBP, worse defense.

[smg58]

$15M a year for a guy who can be counted on for a .750 OPS? Better them than us.

[ashie62]

smg58 wrote: $15M a year for a guy who can be counted on for a .750 OPS? Better them than us.

There are folks still waiting for B.J. Upton to break out.

Edited November 28, 2012 by Guest

[metsmarathon]

he's a 3-4 WAR player, per fangraphs (more than i would have expected). that's slightly more than $15M performance value, so if he maintains that level and plays healthy throughout, its not an outrageous deal.

that said, he's surely no lock to maintain that level as he seems to consistently underproduce. and it also leaves no margin against injury or the ravages of age. he's coming on his peak years, though.

it's still a bad deal, but not awful. i;d rather have bourn, though he's older and will likely command more money.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

B. J. Upton may not be quite as good as Bourn with the glove, but if he is, it's because Bourn is damn good. Upton is still a pretty good centerfielder.

That said, I think I'd rather have Bourn's superlative defense and speed versus B. J. Upton's good-to-pretty-good pop/speed/defense. Still... a fair-ish deal, assuming Upton stays the same guy over the life of said deal.

OE: What the guy above me said.

[smg58]

Ceetar wrote: smg58 wrote: Ernesto Frieri had a 2.30 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 68 innings, but why settle for him when you can pay for a more "experienced" closer coming off an injury? Both LA teams are hoping that a seemingly infinite amount of cash can overcome a very finite amount of baseball sense. It hasn't happened yet. if they're thinking about madsen as closer, I hope Sandy's on the phone with the Angels about Frieri right now.

They've put Jordan Walden on the block. There might be a good buy-low opportunity there.

[duan]

I think it seems like quite a lot of dough. He was no better then Angel Pagan in 2012 & 2010.

[Edgy MD]

And I imagine Angel Pagan's agent just got a little breathy.

[Frayed Knot]

duan wrote: I think it seems like quite a lot of dough. He was no better then Angel Pagan in 2012 & 2010.

Interesting comp.
Let's even throw Angel's sub-par 2011 into the mix so as to not seem as if we're just selectively cherry-picking our data here and look at their 2010-2012 seasons collectively

Upton -- 242/317/436; 1,883 PAs; 404 Hits; 69 HRs; 174 XBHs
Pagan -- 281/334/415; 1,824 PAs; 467 Hits; 26 HRs; 145 XBHs

So Upton shows significantly more power [.196 IsoP vs .134] but you'd have to view that with home field factors in mind as Angel put up those numbers in two extreme pitcher environments in CitiField and Telephone Stadium (he didn't even get to use the "easy" version of CF) and virtually all the difference is 2Bs + 3Bs turned into HRs.
Angel balances that out with making fewer outs [approx Lg avg OBP vs below avg]
Both have speed: Upton averages 39 steals vs 12 caught [per/162 games], Pagan's at 29/8
Both play CF and are above average gloves. I get the idea that Upton is less erratic defensively but maybe that's because we got to witness the up-close/warts-and-all version of Angel on a regular basis.
Angel has a rep for spacing out at times, Upton for dogging it.

Now Upton is a full three years younger which is certainly a factor as far as the length & total of a contract. But both are FAs this year and while Pagan seems to be more of a late-bloomer, Upton has really never matched the season he had at age 22 in 2007. It's like he's anti-peaking.

[Ceetar]

.393 BABIP in 2007 in his best year. I'm certainly not upset that he signed for that much as a Brave.

[MFS62]

If I had my choice of the Uptons, I'd pick Kate ..., or are we just talking baseball?

Later

[Ceetar]

MFS62 wrote: If I had my choice of the Uptons, I'd pick Kate ..., or are we just talking baseball? Later

I think David Wright could score with Kate at that plate at least as well as Justin.

[Frayed Knot]

Upton -- 242/317/436; 1,883 PAs; 404 Hits; 69 HRs; 174 XBHs Pagan -- 281/334/415; 1,824 PAs; 467 Hits; 26 HRs; 145 XBHs

Bourn's totals over those same three seasons - the last one-plus with Atlanta

Bourn -- 279/346/376; 2,030 PAs; 506 Hits; 13 HRs; 124 XBHs

So clearly the Braves have upgraded their power, even if at the expense of more outs.
I get the impression that Bourn is the best pure CF of this group (although not in a run-away) and is shirley the best base-stealer averaging 55/12 (SB/CS per/162) for his career.

Upton is two years younger than Bourn.
This also helps to balance the Braves lineup a bit more as the right-handed Upton replaces the LH-swinging Bourn and mixes in with the other left-swinging Atlantans such as Heyward, Freeman & McCann

[ashie62]

MFS62 wrote: If I had my choice of the Uptons, I'd pick Kate ..., or are we just talking baseball? Later

Priceless..

[seawolf17]

Ashie62 wrote: MFS62 wrote: If I had my choice of the Uptons, I'd pick Kate ..., or are we just talking baseball? Later Priceless..

Twelve years, $500 million. MAKE IT HAPPEN, SANDY.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Russell Martin, Pirates, two years, $17 million.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

LOL

[Ceetar]

Swan Swan H wrote: Russell Martin, Pirates, two years, $17 million.

kinda wish the Yankees had trumped that.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Swan Swan H wrote: Russell Martin, Pirates, two years, $17 million.

WOOOO!

[Frayed Knot]

BP points out that the Russell Martin deal (2 yrs/$17 mil) becomes the biggest Pittsburgh FA deal ever!
Prior to this, these were the largest.

Clint Barmes: 2 years, $10.5 million
Derek Bell: 2 years, $9.75 million
Kevin Correia: 2 years, $8 million
Jeromy Burnitz: 1 year, $6 million
Lyle Overbay: 1 year, $5 million

[metirish]

That's nuts!

Ddin't Burnett hate pitching to him, or was that Cervelli?

[smg58]

New free agents thanks to non-tenders include:
John Lannan LHP (unspectacular, but mostly at least adequate and has a local connection)
Tom Gorzelanny LHP from the Nationals (curious to see him on this list as he was a solid lefty arm out of the pen; he could definitely help here but he might have quite a few suitors)
Mark Reynolds 1B/3B (Dave Kingman with a much better glove at 1B; I'd be curious if I thought he could play the outfield)
Ian Stewart 3B (Was awful this year but has talent; could be a useful reserve infielder on a team less loaded with lefty hitters than us)
Rich Hill LHP (another capable lefty into the pool; he's fought his way back from injuries and still has some upside)
Rafael Perez LHP (another lefty fighting his way back)

And from us: Pelfrey, Acosta, and Torres. No surprises there. I'd consider bringing Pelfrey back at a discount. As awful as Acosta was for the first six weeks of the season -- there's no understating it, and he should have been demoted long before he was -- he's generally been much better than that (and was in August and September) and would be worth a minor-league deal. I generally prefer offense over defense with NL reserves, especially in the outfield, so I don't see any benefit to bringing Torres back.

[Frayed Knot]

1B, James Loney - TB Rays - One year deal.

He was the essentially the only real player the BoSox got from the Dodgers in last year's mega-deal, but of course they didn't really want him, just the salary relief and a temporary replacement for A. Gonzalez so he became a non-tendered FA.
I thought this guy was going to be a star when I first saw him. Now he's in the middle of his supposed prime (29 next May) and settling for a $2mil deal coming off his arbitration-determined $6+ last year.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Red Sox reportedly close to a deal with Mike Napoli. Might this shake Saltalamacchia loose?

OE: They signed David Ross earlier, but are apparently looking for Napoli to live at first base more than behind the plate. Still, this is leaves the Sawx with four guys who can catch on the roster, if you count Lavarnway.

[Guest sharpie]

Jason Marquis re-signs with San Diego. BFD.

[Guest sharpie]

Angel Pagan re-upping with Giants.

[ashie62]

Napoli 3/39 Pagan 4/40

[Guest vtmet]

sharpie wrote: Angel Pagan re-upping with Giants.

I can't believe that Pagan got 4 years and $40 Mil from the Giants...yes, he had a nice season, but this is a guy that has been extremely inconsistent so far in his career...