AL MVP vs TC

[Frayed Knot]

There's a decent chance this year of Miguel Cabrera winning the triple crown - and then at the same time NOT being the AL MVP
He's currently leading in two categories and close in the other.

BA:
1st = Cabrera .333
2nd = Trout .327

HR:
1st = Hamilton 42
T-2nd = Cabrera 40
T-2nd = Encarnacion 40

RBI:
1st = Cabrera 129
2nd = Hamilton 123


But then there's Mike Trout, who certainly has the RoY sewn up but also, many still think, is the leader for MVP as well.
He's right there with Cabrera in BA, has 27 HRs despite spending the first month in the minors, and is nowhere near the top in RBI mainly as the result of leading off exclusively

But then Trout leads the league in both SBs (46 of 50) and in runs scored (despite the missed month) and is right up there in OBA (tied with Cabrera for 3rd at .396)
He also leads the league in both WAR and Offensive WAR, is 4th in slugging (Cabrera = 1st) and 2nd (to Cabrera) in OPS
And then there's the whole [crossout:w8d682v2]good[/crossout:w8d682v2] great CF vs mediocre (at best) 3Bman thing to consider.


I think that, not all that long ago, winning a TC would have automatically clinched the MVP award (and probably unanimously) for whoever got it, but I'm not so sure now.

[metirish]

Can you explain Edwin Encarnacion's numbers?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

[Frayed Knot]

metirish wrote: Can you explain Edwin Encarnacion's numbers? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

Everything is virtually the same except that he's managed to turn about a dozen or two doubles into HRs.
Nice trick if you call pull it off.

[metirish]

His name jumped out because my first thought was Juan?

Hamilton will be a FA?, big payday ahead.

[Vic Sage]

Hamilton will be a FA?, big payday ahead.

yeah cuz there's no risk with him!

[HahnSolo]

I almost hate to imply this, but don't overlook all that scrappy white-ness Trout has.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Vic Sage wrote: Hamilton will be a FA?, big payday ahead. yeah cuz there's no risk with him!

"New York City will just be full of temptations for Hamilton to fall off the wagon," every ignorant sports journalist will write.

[Vic Sage]

Cabrera has a small lead in OPS+ and Runs Created, but Trout has such a huge lead in WAR (10.3 to 6.3), that it would take a September collapse for Cabrera to catch him overall. And that might be happening, with Trout cooled off and Cabrera red-hot in the midst of a division & WC race. If that keeps up, Cabrera is a lock.

[Vic Sage]

HahnSolo wrote: I almost hate to imply this, but don't overlook all that scrappy white-ness Trout has.

one would have to expect that, just as recent CY voting has indicated a new generation of younger writers comprise the voting majority (as demonstrated by elections of CYs with fewer wins and better SABRmetric profiles), that such new voters would be less and less influenced by the sins of their fathers. except, you know, if they're choosing between a pale scrapper and a melanin-rich malingerer...

[dinosaur jesus]

Frayed Knot wrote: I think that, not all that long ago, winning a TC would have automatically clinched the MVP award (and probably unanimously) for whoever got it, but I'm not so sure now.

It's hard to say what "not all that long ago" means, since no one's done it since 1967. But there have been Triple Crown winners since they started giving the MVP, and only six have won the award. In 1934 Gehrig finished fifth in the voting. Suck on it, Biscuit Pants.

[Edgy MD]

I don't trust Trout. Firstly, he has yet to face the Mets. Secondly, he's cocking himself to the left (his right) in every photo I see of him. What's that about?



You want my vote, kid? I vote that you get your spine aligned.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It may have something to do with fluid in his ears.

[seawolf17]

Or maybe he just has a neck thing. DON'T MOCK THE DISABLED.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Edgy DC wrote: I don't trust Trout. Firstly, he has yet to face the Mets. Secondly, he's cocking himself to the left (his right) in every photo I see of him. What's that about?.

He's a moderate Republican?

[Frayed Knot]

dinosaur jesus wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: I think that, not all that long ago, winning a TC would have automatically clinched the MVP award (and probably unanimously) for whoever got it, but I'm not so sure now. It's hard to say what "not all that long ago" means, since no one's done it since 1967. But there have been Triple Crown winners since they started giving the MVP, and only six have won the award. In 1934 Gehrig finished fifth in the voting. Suck on it, Biscuit Pants.

What I'm saying is that if someone had won the TC during a span from let's say the last one thru maybe a decade or so ago the writers would have almost automatically given him the MVP because he will have led in the only statistical categories that anyone cared about. Now-a-days I'm not so sure. BB writers are far more likely to at least consider other stats and other facets of the game before voting if not as a trump to the TC stats at least in conjunction with them.

The non-baseball talking heads are already weighing in on this topic with the expected; "ya gotta give it to Cabrera!" and they'll be as confused by and dismissive of 'those baseball number geeks' if he doesn't win as they were when Felix Hernandez won the CY with his "paltry" 13 wins ... but let them squawk all they want.

[ashie62]

metirish wrote: Can you explain Edwin Encarnacion's numbers? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml

Yeah, borrowing Jose Bautista's HGH.

[Edgy MD]

As someone noted on Facebook, we are legally obligated to mention Derek Jeter in any discussion of the American League MVP.

[MFS62]

Speaking of post season kudos, MLB won't stop Melky from winning the batting title.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/09/19/melky-cabrera-bud-selig-batting-title.ap/index.html

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Josh Hamilton is back after sitting out nearly a week with what was first called a sinus infection but now is described as blurry vision caused by too much caffeine and energy drinks -- is there anything that guy is NOT addicted to? -- and immediately hit his 43rd HR to re-take the AL HR lead, one ahead of Miggy Cabrera.


Cabrera's RBI lead is at 9, his BA lead at .008

HR Race:
Hamilton - 43
Cabrera - 42
Adam Dunn - 41 (2 last night while saving the ChiSox's bacon)
Edwin Encarnacion - 41
Curtis Granderson - 40

Edgy DC wrote: As someone noted on Facebook, we are legally obligated to mention Derek Jeter in any discussion of the American League MVP.

Lots of media types are making sure to mention his name as well.
Hell, forget Cabrera & Trout, if Jeter gets more votes than Adam Jones the Orioles should take it to the World Court in The Hague for investigation.

[Edgy MD]

Stil leading, but only his RBI title is looking safe.

Batting Average:
1. Cabrera (DET) .325
2. Mauer (MIN) .323
3. Trout (LAA) .321
4. Beltre (TEX) .319
5. Jeter (NYY) .318

Home Runs
T1. Hamilton (TEX) 43
T1. Cabrera (DET) 43
3. Encarnacion (TOR) 42
4. Dunn (CHW) 41
5. Granderson (NYY) 40

Runs Batted In
1. Cabrera (DET) 136
2. Hamilton (TEX) 127

[Frayed Knot]

Four hits including a HR for Miggy last night

Batting Average:
1. Cabrera (DET) .329
2. Trout (LAA) .325
3. Mauer (MIN) .322
4. Beltre (TEX) .319
5. Jeter (NYY) .316

Home Runs
1. Cabrera (DET) 44
2. Hamilton (TEX) 43
3. Encarnacion (TOR) 42
T4. Dunn (CHW) 41
T4. Granderson (NYY) 41

Runs Batted In
1. Cabrera (DET) 137
2. Hamilton (TEX) 127


And, with a division clinched and their playoff slot set, he's under no obligation to play in the next two days.
Or maybe he'll just lay down a bunt and then sit out.

[Vic Sage]

This race is becoming a real "old school" vs "moneyball" debate. The old-schoolers are saying a triple crown for a division winner should be an automatic MVP, and the Metrics crowd poo-poos the importance of RBI (too lineup and team-dependent) and BA (doesn't measure anything well; OB% and SLG% are better), pointing to WAR instead.

The facts are that (1) triple crown winners have failed to win MVPs in the past, (2) the triple crown stats are flawed and don't measure other aspects of a player's game (like Trout's excellent defense in CF and game-changing speed on the bases), (3) the triple crown is an arbitrary standard for an MVP (if Hamilton outslugs him by 1 HR, denying him the triple crown, should his case for MVP really be diminished?), and (4) while Cabrera has carried Detroit to a division title (which was partially due to a ChiSox collapse), Trout similarly turned CA's season around, having the best record in the league since his arrival, with a better record than Detroit overall.

So without even getting into a debate about the utility of WAR, I would still make the case for Trout as the best overall player (not just hitter) in the AL. When you factor in his huge edge in WAR, that just verifies my estimation.

[Edgy MD]

I agree.

I'm still surprised that a triple-crown winner --- which hasn't existed since I was one --- could fail to win an MVP, but the facts support it.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, Tyler Kepner in the Times on Sunday was all over the argument that if Miggy goes TC then he should win the MVP but if not it should go to Trout.
Deciding that something is so cut-and-dried based not only just on the superiority of these statistics but not those, but also on the vagaries of what various non-contenders for the MVP (Hamilton, Mauer) do in those categories is such limited thinking that, even if you want to argue in favor of Cabrera, don't do it with THAT logic.

[MFS62]

The old stats VS valuable discussion, and the reason why the Sporting News used to (do they still?) name a "Player of the Year Award" , usually to the player with the best stats, instead of an MVP. You could say the Silver Slugger Awards do the same thing.
I hate to say it, but if you take Captain Intangibles out of the Yankee lineup this year, IMO they wouldn't be anywhere close to winning their division. But if you just condider Trout and Cabrera, the record of the Halos with and without Trout in the lineup is a similar situation.


Later

[metsmarathon]

Batting Average: 1. Cabrera (DET) .329 2. Trout (LAA) .325

be cool if trout caught him in batting average...

[Frayed Knot]

They both got four hits last night.

[nymr83]

Trout in a landslide imo, the defense he provides blows Cabrera away.

[Vic Sage]

MFS62 wrote: The old stats VS valuable discussion, and the reason why the Sporting News used to (do they still?) name a "Player of the Year Award" , usually to the player with the best stats, instead of an MVP. You could say the Silver Slugger Awards do the same thing. I hate to say it, but if you take Captain Intangibles out of the Yankee lineup this year, IMO they wouldn't be anywhere close to winning their division. But if you just condider Trout and Cabrera, the record of the Halos with and without Trout in the lineup is a similar situation. Later

i'm not quite sure i understand your point, but if its about that notion many MVP voters have that "valuable" means the best hitter on a division winner, then i beg to disagree.

"most valuable player" was a phrase created in a more genteel time; it has a literary, metaphorical quality, as was the fashion. It wasn't taken literally, beyond the notion that certainly the best player in the league would be most valuable to his team. In 1911, the first 2 MVPs, TY Cobb and Frank Schulte, both played for 2nd place teams. Even after the award changed and was taken over by the BBWAA in 1931, early winners might be found on non-1st place teams (Chuck Klein, Jimmy Foxx, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Medwick, etc.). It's only in the modern era that voters began to take that phrase literally, overlooking better players for those that were good on good teams. It's frankly moronic. Every team has an MVP; so just let the 2 pennant winners pick their own MVPs and they get the award. And we can continue to overlook the best players in the league. yeah, that's sensible. Or we can get truly literal and think of "most valuable" as that player who created the most win shares per dollar of salary. Because if "value" can't be quantified into a dollar sum, i don't know what can. ON that basis, too, i'm sure Trout beats Cabrera.

[metirish]

Nymr83 wrote: Trout in a landslide imo, the defense he provides blows Cabrera away.

The SNY crew are adamant that his defense will not carry him over the line...it was an interesting discussion , Ron seemed to be the one taking the lead on it......one point brought up was that Trout is not even the most feared hitter ion his own team.....it was a good talk.(anything is better that talking about the game at hand)