I'm concerned. ... About the future.

[Vic Sage]

style and syntax aside, what did he say that you feel was untrue?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Howie Megdal, formidable challenger to Tim Marchman's throne as gloomiest writer on all things Mets, is also concerned about the future.

Here's two:

For the Mets, it's like the late '70s all over again

If you're old enough to remember the Mets of the late 1970s, the 2012 Mets might be ringing a bell for you. Back then, as now, a group of popular players had just left: Tom Seaver, Tug McGraw; Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran. The fans were frustrated, then and now, at an ownership group that wouldn't or couldn't spend enough money to keep the team from deteriorating. And the Mets' spin, then and now, was that it was all part of a long-term plan. The 2012 Mets are playing at a 77-win pace, whereas their 1977 counterparts finished 64-98. But their rosters aren't dissimilar, statistically: Both teams had five everyday players worth at least one win above replacement player. (Briefly on this stat, commonly referred to by stats-geeks as WAR: It represents a player's value, measured in wins, over the best available player a team could replace him with.) The 1977 fivesome was Lenny Randle (4.0), John Stearns (3.2), Steve Henderson (2.5), John Milner (1.6) and Lee Mazzilli (1.0). The 2012 fivesome is David Wright (5.6), Daniel Murphy (1.8), Ruben Tejada (1.8), Scott Hairston (1.5) and Josh Thole (1.1). In 1977, all five of those players were 28 or younger. Randle played third base, Milner first base, Stearns catcher, and Henderson and Mazzilli were outfielders. In 2012, four of the five are 29 or younger; Hairston, an outfielder, is a veteran of 32. Wright plays third base, Murphy second base, Tejada shortstop, Thole catcher. Among pitchers, the 2012 Mets have three with at least one WAR: R.A. Dickey (3.4), Jonathon Niese (1.4), and Johan Santana (1.1). They are unlikely to have any other pitcher reach that threshold; the next two highest on their list, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee, are both out for the season. The 1977 Mets had three as well (four, really, but by this point in 1977, they'd traded Tom Seaver): Nino Espinosa (3.1), Jerry Koosman (2.7) and Skip Lockwood (1.5). Jon Matlack was just under that threshold at 0.9, while young, talented Pat Zachary and Craig Swan (0.7 and 0.5, respectively), stood ready to play the parts of Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. If that appears to sell Harvey and Wheeler short, consider that Zachary had been a huge prospect and was the center of the Seaver trade, while Swan went on to win an E.R.A. title. The median outcome for the two prospects can't be much different than what the Mets ultimately got from Zachary and Swan. Median outcome isn't the same thing as predestined outcome, of course: Harvey and Wheeler could turn into the new Seaver and Koosman. But it is unclear that anything other than hope for the future separates the 2012 team from the 1977 team, which, for those who may not remember, went on to become a 66-96 1978 team and a 63-99 1979 team, before the Mets were sold to a new owner.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2012/08/6400179/mets-its-late-70s-all-over-again

______________________

How long before the Mets find themselves in a Reyes situation with R.A. Dickey?

The Mets have finally started treating R.A. Dickey like a meaningful part of their future again. And on Thursday, Dickey returned the favor. Just hours after Terry Collins announced that the Mets were scrapping an ill-advised plan to start Dickey on short rest repeatedly, Dickey went out and shut down the Marlins, 6-1. His complete-game victory was the first home win for the Mets in just over a month. His success illustrates a challenge for the Mets: Dickey is an undeniably valuable commodity, but his long-term role, for a team unlikely to contend in 2013, has everything to do with what they can afford and when they can afford it. Perhaps the smartest move Sandy Alderson has made (with the trade of Carlos Beltran for prospect Zack Wheeler a close second) was the signing of R.A. Dickey to a massively discounted contract after his breakout 2010 season. Dickey earned $2.75 million in 2011, $4.25 million this year, and the team holds a $5 million option on him for 2013, a no-brainer to pick up. For that money, he's been 16th in the major leagues in ERA+ among full-time starters since the start of the 2011 season. He's gotten more attention for 2012, but he's been a plus starter for three seasons now. Where the difficulty comes in is evaluating exactly how aggressively the Mets want to or can push to keep Dickey around. Arguably, the major leverage they have would be in signing him to an extension this coming winter. Dickey would earn far more than $5 million in 2013 on the free agent market; a long-term extension that includes a significant bump up in 2013 could be enough to convince Dickey to stay with the Mets. But 2013 looms as a season without much room for the Mets to bump up anyone's salaries. The payroll is at $91.6 million in 2012, down from $143 million in 2011. As it stands now, if the Mets simply pick up Dickey's option, along with David Wright's, they'll have more than $73.6 million committed to six players: Dickey, Wright, Jason Bay, Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese and Frank Francisco. If you consider the $5.5 million it will cost the Mets to buy out Santana's 2014 option and the $3 million to do the same with Bay 2013 costs, that elevates the already-committed 2013 money to just over $82 million for six players. So if the Mets simply filled out the roster with entirely league-minimum players, payroll would remain the same in 2013 as it was in 2012. And there's no reason to think that number is going up to any significant degree. Bay and Santana come off the books in 2014, but if the Mets wait until the winter of 2013 to try and sign Wright and Dickey, they'll be going up against every other team that could use a star third baseman and frontline pitcher. The reasons to act now are significant; the reasons to wait are self-inflicted. So it isn't any wonder that even though Dickey has been open to negotiating an extension, it hasn't happened. Instead, we are treated to another "talks to begin in the near future" column that simply recycles the team line on Jose Reyes and David Wright. But the Mets run a real risk that if Dickey is simply allowed to play through his 2013 option, he'll hit the open market as a reliable, top-shelf starting pitcher. His market value will be diminished somewhat be his age (he'll have just completed his age-38 season) but even that is mitigated by his role as a knuckeball pitcher. His comps are people like Phil Niekro, who threw 12 200-inning seasons from age 35 on, and others who pitched well into their 40s, like Charlie Hough and Tim Wakefield. The Mets know what kind of valuable pitcher they have in R.A. Dickey, just as they know what they have in David Wright, and had in Jose Reyes. But the plan appears to simply hope financial circumstances change before they are forced to give him up.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2012/08/6409332/how-long-mets-find-themselves-reyes-situation-ra-dickey

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think Medgal's first article there is a reach, any two crappy teams might have similarities, his almost seem chosen just to provocatively fit the comparison he wants to make. It wasn't convincing to me anyway. He also overstates Zachry as "huge", sloppily compares McGraw to Beltran etc etc

Now, his larger point may still be up for debate (it's obviously possible we lose 90+ games for the next 2 years) but I don't think anyone trades 1977 for 2012 today and thinks it's a good deal.

The Sherman-bashing is so predictable. He made the very same points astute fans would.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I think Medgal's first article there is a reach, any two crappy teams might have similarities, his almost seem chosen just to provocatively fit the comparison he wants to make. It wasn't convincing to me anyway. He also overstates Zachry as "huge", sloppily compares McGraw to Beltran etc etc.

I agree. Megdal's been sounding like a bad broken record to me ever since the Picard suit settled: He contrives to diss the Mets.

[Edgy MD]

Any credibility he had with me he staked on the impossibility of the case coming to a settlement.

When he's accurate, it's because he's throwing at a big target.

[Frayed Knot]

Most if not all of the 'This Year' is just like 'That Year' comparisons are too forced to mean much.
Analyze your current problems on their own merits and take the steps that will hopefully fix them under the conditions that exist now.

[Gwreck]

Edgy DC wrote: Any credibility he had with me he staked on the impossibility of the case coming to a settlement.

I thought he staked it on the Wilpons having to sell, because of -- in addition to the Picard suit -- future debt payments for the Stadium, SNY and team (loan from Chase, wasn't it?) that they would not be able to afford.

Obviously things are on a financial upswing for the Mets this year (settling with Picard, selling those partial shares; better record than expected) but I think it's premature to say Megal was wrong.

I mean, look at what CF said above. If the Mets are missing the pieces needed to contend, they are going to need to fill them with expensive free agents. I suppose when that time comes (whether this offseason or next) we'll have a better idea of their financial health.

[Edgy MD]

Megdal explicitly stated on more than one occasion that a settlement couldn't happen.

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Any credibility he had with me he staked on the impossibility of the case coming to a settlement. I thought he staked it on the Wilpons having to sell, because of -- in addition to the Picard suit -- future debt payments for the Stadium, SNY and team (loan from Chase, wasn't it?) that they would not be able to afford. Obviously things are on a financial upswing for the Mets this year (settling with Picard, selling those partial shares; better record than expected) but I think it's premature to say Megal was wrong. I mean, look at what CF said above. If the Mets are missing the pieces needed to contend, they are going to need to fill them with expensive free agents. I suppose when that time comes (whether this offseason or next) we'll have a better idea of their financial health.

Some of those partial shares were bought _themselves_ If they had (was it 3?) $60 mill to do that, I think it's far-fetched that they haven't seen the road ahead and what they need to do and afford to get through it. Unless you think that that was their only $60 million, and the other 9 minority guys were simply the only 9 people in the world that could afford it and were willing to invest, but that seems unlikely.

Frayed Knot wrote: Most if not all of the 'This Year' is just like 'That Year' comparisons are too forced to mean much. Analyze your current problems on their own merits and take the steps that will hopefully fix them under the conditions that exist now.

This is a narrative. You can often make it fit however you like it. It can make good stories. (say comparing it to 84 like some of done) but it's otherwise totally meaningless in terms of predicting the future. Hell, if we knew this was like 77, sell everyone for prospects and gamble that way because we know it's not working out. If it's like '84 it's time to acquire the big free agents to put us over the hump with the prospects we know are going to grow and work out.

But I can't comment on what '77 was like. but no-hitter, R.A. Dickey's amazingness? Wright's half season of MVP and getting to see potential in a couple of other places in various degrees from Davis and Tejada and Nieuwenhuis and Harvey among others? I can't imagine the late 70s were like that.

[Edgy MD]

The 2012 Mets average 29,099 fans. The 1977 team averaged 13,171.

Both are odd numbers, and both are obviously inflated, so there you go.

[metirish]

MFS62 wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Joel Sherman surfing this very wave. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/roster_lacks_building_blocks_C8Cv2P6cmUiGkWisPqlEWK Sherman is to sportswriting what Tiny Tim was to singing. Later

good article I thought

�There are multiple things that have kept us from playing very good,� Collins conceded. In other words, this isn�t a simple plug job. Not when you are three outfielders away from having a legitimate major league outfield. Not when you don�t have a starting catcher in a sport already short on catching. Not when significant parts of the Mets� own hierarchy remain unsold that Ike Davis or Daniel Murphy can be part of a first-division right side of the infield. Not when Jonathon Niese is showing second-half endurance issues once more and Dillon Gee has become a physical uncertainty. Not when Jason Bay and Johan Santana are choking the payroll for one more season.

these are fears well expressed here on this forum......

[Ceetar]

metirish wrote: MFS62 wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Joel Sherman surfing this very wave. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/roster_lacks_building_blocks_C8Cv2P6cmUiGkWisPqlEWK Sherman is to sportswriting what Tiny Tim was to singing. Later good article I thought �There are multiple things that have kept us from playing very good,� Collins conceded. In other words, this isn�t a simple plug job. Not when you are three outfielders away from having a legitimate major league outfield. Not when you don�t have a starting catcher in a sport already short on catching. Not when significant parts of the Mets� own hierarchy remain unsold that Ike Davis or Daniel Murphy can be part of a first-division right side of the infield. Not when Jonathon Niese is showing second-half endurance issues once more and Dillon Gee has become a physical uncertainty. Not when Jason Bay and Johan Santana are choking the payroll for one more season. these are fears well expressed here on this forum......

Nothing he said here was 'untrue' but he's creating the team in his head that he thinks the Mets should be, not what the Mets actually need to be to win.

Presuming all major league teams have three legitimate outfielders is a stretch anyway, but to say there's no chance Duda or Nieuwenhuis become one is just silly. Andres Torres is already there and Hairston, though unsigned, is a very good 4th guy.

I know Thole's not great an has taken a step back this year offensively but he's OBP is in the top half of catchers. The shortage of catchers helps Thole, it doesn't hurt him.

vague allusions to what what the "Mets' hierarchy feels about Davis and Murphy's ability to be 'first-division' aren't helpful to anything. Davis has shaken off a bad start and Murphy's certainly shown himself to be mostly capable.

The second half isn't exactly fully closed yet, but Jon Niese has NOT shown endurance issues, merely had a bad start or two. first half ERA 3.73, second half 4.09. But its' been 33 innings in the second half. not enough to make sweeping judgements.

Dillon Gee had a medical issue. Does that mean he's a physical uncertainty for NEXT season? never mind he's the 5th starter..

I know Johan's ERA ballooned when he was apparently pitching hurt, but I wouldn't describe his contributions as choking. Sure, he's paid a lot, probably more than he'll produce, value wise, but he's still producing value.

[ashie62]

They stink and will eventually improve, I hope.

[Guest themetfairy]

I believe. I believe.

It's silly, but I believe....

[smg58]

I've always thought, and still think, that Thole could be the backup catcher on a good team. We've seen enough of him to know what to expect.

Murphy is still a bit of a puzzle. His .299/.342/.423 line this season is almost identical to his career line (.295/.344/.437). He's a known commodity with the bat, and those numbers would be rock solid if his glove at second was at least average. He's lugging a -8 in runs saved from the Fielding Bible at second, but on the bright side it's not really a worse number than what it was in May. I don't think the Mets necessarily need to improve on him; I certainly wouldn't move him for less than a starting player, and the team has bigger issues. Like the outfield, for example...

Bay has been horrible this year, and while injuries have factored in, he still hasn't given the Mets more than mediocrity for their $65 million. Torres' one good year with the bat is getting further and further away. His glove keeps him from being awful, but he's hardly inspiring and I wouldn't give him a raise to come back. Duda, quite frankly, needs a .900 OPS to make his outfield defense tolerable, and that ain't happening. He's dealable to a team looking for a first baseman or DH, but he won't boost his value playing out the string in Buffalo. Nieuwenhuis hit as well as a guy with a very high K rate in the minors and little AAA experience could be expected to hit. He has talent, but it's raw. I think he'll improve next season, but how much is an open question.

I think the glass is half full with the pitching. A rotation of RA, Johan, Harvey, Niese, and Gee is actually pretty decent, especially with Wheeler getting closer to a call-up. Familia and Mejia might be in a position to help out in either the rotation or the pen -- but they should decide before training camp whether they want Mejia to pitch as a starter or reliever and then stick with it. The best thing you can say about the pen is that it can't get any worse. I'd bet on Ramirez bouncing back, but that second year they gave to Francisco is going to hurt. Parnell is what his numbers say he is, which is really not bad but nod good enough to be the closer. Alderson needs to find one or two diamonds in the rough to make the pen competitive, but that's not impossible.

And there's always the question of whether or not the Mets are willing to spend. It's possible that the team will use whatever money it has lying around this offseason to extend Wright and Dickey, and that they may have to wait for Bay and Santana to come off the books to get aggressive again on the spending. But we'll see.

[Vic Sage]

themetfairy wrote: I believe. I believe. It's silly, but I believe....

A MIRACLE ON ROOSEVELT AVE?

[Vic Sage]

I've always thought, and still think, that Thole could be the backup catcher on a good team. We've seen enough of him to know what to expect.

agreed; problem being he's our starter, and our backup shouldn't be on a major league roster. Are there any answers in the pipeline? i don't know.

Murphy is still a bit of a puzzle. His .299/.342/.423 line this season is almost identical to his career line (.295/.344/.437). He's a known commodity with the bat, and those numbers would be rock solid if his glove at second was at least average. He's lugging a -8 in runs saved from the Fielding Bible at second, but on the bright side it's not really a worse number than what it was in May. I don't think the Mets necessarily need to improve on him; I certainly wouldn't move him for less than a starting player, and the team has bigger issues. Like the outfield, for example...

Murphy's not a puzzle; when we ask ourselves what he is, we know... we just don't like the answer. He's punchless and speedless but he's a solid contact hitter who could be useful in the 2 slot in a lineup with sufficient power and speed elsewhere. But his best defensive position is probably 3B, and that makes him less useful to us since our best player plays there. So he's been played mostly out of position (1B, OF, 2b) with the Mets and hasn't completely embarrassed himself but would have to improve greatly to be average. He might be of more value to a team willing to live with his lack of HR/RBI power at 3b or 1b or DH, and they should see what he's worth, but i wouldn't move him just to move him. I'd prefer to use him as a super-utility guy and find a better 2bman.

Bay has been horrible this year, and while injuries have factored in, he still hasn't given the Mets more than mediocrity for their $65 million. Torres' one good year with the bat is getting further and further away. His glove keeps him from being awful, but he's hardly inspiring and I wouldn't give him a raise to come back. Duda, quite frankly, needs a .900 OPS to make his outfield defense tolerable, and that ain't happening. He's dealable to a team looking for a first baseman or DH, but he won't boost his value playing out the string in Buffalo. Nieuwenhuis hit as well as a guy with a very high K rate in the minors and little AAA experience could be expected to hit. He has talent, but it's raw. I think he'll improve next season, but how much is an open question.

Agreed; it's too soon to write off Nieuwenhuis, and Valdespin may end up pretty good too. Baxter, too, has been consistently productive in a backup role. But i've never had much confidence in Duda, or much use for Torres. Bay? oy.

I think the glass is half full with the pitching. A rotation of RA, Johan, Harvey, Niese, and Gee is actually pretty decent, especially with Wheeler getting closer to a call-up. Familia and Mejia might be in a position to help out in either the rotation or the pen -- but they should decide before training camp whether they want Mejia to pitch as a starter or reliever and then stick with it.

i think the glass is half empty. RA will likely to continue being productive until he starts breaking down physically (he is 37), but Johan has already broken down, and despite his no-hitter this year, i have no reason to believe he'll be a reliable SP going forward. Harvey shows flashes, but his control is erratic, and Niese is inconsistent too. Gee is pretty consistently shit, with a career 92 ERA+ to support that view. Maybe Wheeler is close, maybe he's not. Neither Familia nor Mejia have performed well at higher levels of minors so far, and there seems to be all kinds of doubts and confusion as to what their best roles would be.

The best thing you can say about the pen is that it can't get any worse. I'd bet on Ramirez bouncing back, but that second year they gave to Francisco is going to hurt. Parnell is what his numbers say he is, which is really not bad but nod good enough to be the closer. Alderson needs to find one or two diamonds in the rough to make the pen competitive, but that's not impossible.

the one area where Sandy decided to be active in the FA market and spend some money and it totally imploded. I like Sandy and his approach, but this fact does not instill me with confidence.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'd cut Sandy a lot of slack on the bullpen he put together. I mean the Wilpons gave him what -- three dollars and eighty two cents and a half off coupon on 20 cans of cat food to assemble essentially an entire pen?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Bullpens aren't worth really investing in anyway, the whole thing is a crapshoot, guy to guy, appearance to appearance. What you want are good arms and good luck.

I think we're more or less in agreement here that our needs for next year are up to 3 outfielders, a catcher, and maybe a second baseman.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Bullpens aren't worth really investing in anyway, the whole thing is a crapshoot, guy to guy, appearance to appearance. What you want are good arms and good luck.

And redundancy and, frankly, either the control or the guts to throw strikes.

[Ceetar]

I'm concerned that they'res a major preparation flaw in the pitching, on the coaching side. Mix in some new faces and there's no reason to think it'll completely suck again next year. They could also use some better defense.

Crapshoot wise, it's certainly possible Ramon Ramirez goes back to being a good reliever next year. Parnells good, and there's reason to believe in Edgin at least as a lefty reliever. Rauch has been pretty good (although not under control for next year right?) and I guess Francisco has been almost serviceable, except for a couple of spurts where he's horribly, horribly bad.

[Vic Sage]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'd cut Sandy a lot of slack on the bullpen he put together. I mean the Wilpons gave him what -- three dollars and eighty two cents and a half off coupon on 20 cans of cat food to assemble essentially an entire pen?

my problem isn't with how little he had to spend (though that's a larger issue), or that he didn't get value for the money, it was the decision to spend what little resources he had on a bullpen, knowing that pens are so erratic and how many internal options we had (which were not substantially better or worse than what we could buy for $3.82 + cat food coupon). It's that decision that makes me start to question his judgment. But maybe we were locked in everywhere else and, for what he had to spend, figured the only place he could have an impact is the pen. which is fair enough. believe me, i'm happy to give Sandy the benefit of the doubt.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah, I'm not sure the actual amount of $$ he had to spend could have spent elsewhere as effectively. I trust that they studied that part out and determined as much anyway.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Unless the Mets pulled another R.A. Dickey, I didn't expect for there to be significant improvement from outside acquisitions. They weren't trading prospects and were financially broke. Any real improvement would've come from Duda hitting where he left off -like an All Star. Duda didn't. Or from Bay, showing signs of his pre-Mets days. That didn't pan out either. It's hard to imagine Bay worse than his previous Mets seasons, but Bay managed to lower the impossibly low bar he'd already established. Dickey's Cy Young caliber season is more than offset by Johan's deterioration, Pelf's season ending injury and the rest of the starting staff's inconsistency and mediocrity. Ike Davis is Dave Kingman this season, albeit with a better glove but without the league leading HR totals. We're gonna have to suffer a few bad seasons as part of the rebuild. There's no way around it. And no guarantee that the Mets'll be competitive in a few years, either.

[batmagadanleadoff]

What I don't get is why the young 'uns like Nieuwenhuis, Duda and Valdespin aren't getting the lion's share of the at-bats going forward? And this Duda demotion -- I've mulled it in my head over and over and over and it still makes no sense to me. Fielding's all the same whether in the Minors or Majors and the guy has little to prove hitting-wise in AAA. I'll give the Mets the benefit of the doubt that they know hundreds and hundreds of things about Duda for every one tiny thing that I know about the guy 'cause that's the only way I can make Duda's demotion jibe. It seems to me though, that the Wilpons are back in meddle mode and that even a rebuild, under this ownership, is about as half-assed as everything else they do. Because now they have to fool the foolable portion of the fan base into thinking they're playoff contenders this year so maybe they can pull in the extra attendance that they apparently still desperately need. So we get to watch Torres and Bay, who won't be part of the future and are barely part of the present, quality-wise.

[Ceetar]

I'd be surprised of Duda's not back on the next homestand. I suppose they might be managing the roster crunch by not demoting someone like Valdespin to bring him back (They're not going to just release Bay. the potential payoff, however miniscule, of him showing anything between now and March 20th is too high for what's at this point maybe 30 AB until rosters expand) until 9/1, but someone getting hurt could change that. Or they do actually trade Hairston, but no one's offering anything for him, so..

The flip side to fielding being the same in the minors and majors is that basically he's still getting in the fielding work they want, and probably more than he would up here. And he wasn't hitting. It's one thing to have a guy take his lumps, but he wasn't playing well at all on either offense or defense, so they decided to get Valdespin the ABs.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Future ... as Envisioned Almost Nine Months Ago

Baseball ProGUESTus
Sunset in Flushing
December 9, 2011

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line. Jonathan Bernhardt is a freelance writer born in Baltimore who lives and works in New York City. He is an occasional contributor to the Et tu, Mr. Destructo? blog. Jarrett Seidler is a life-long New York Mets fan and IT manager living in New Jersey, where he lives and works. ___ It is December 8th, 2011, Major League Baseball�s annual Winter Meetings are well underway, and New York Met Jonathon Niese is one of the more valuable commodities in baseball. He has been for some time now: a six-foot-four, 25-year-old, left-handed starter who can locate both his fastballs and mix in a major-league change is a highly valued asset in any organization. The real draw with Niese, though, is his out-pitch: a bending 12-6 curve that, given a bit more time, could become dominant. He hasn't overwhelmed the NL East so far, but few pitchers in their early 20s do. Niese's strikeout-to-walk ratio has improved every season; his first year in the majors, just under 44 percent of his pitches that were put in play were groundballs. Last year, 51.5 percent. This is exactly the sort of development a team wants to see, because groundball contact leads to an out almost 80 percent of the time, and by definition, it cannot clear the fences. Meanwhile, the percentage of plate appearances against him that end in a base on balls has dropped by half since he entered the league�from 11.6 percent in 2008 to 6.3 percent in 2011. By his peripherals, he is a fine young pitcher for any team to have in the back of its rotation, and if his development continues, he'll be moving to the front quickly. The Mets could use him up there. Ace Johan Santana missed the entire season with a shoulder injury that still hasn�t fully healed, and there's no way to say how good he'll be when he returns. After breakout knuckleball superstar R.A. Dickey, the Mets� leaders in innings pitched in 2011 were Mike Pelfrey and Chris Capuano. Pelfrey is a headcase who throws a number of pitches, none of which consistently strikes batters out; Capuano has departed for the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency. And as fantastic a story as R.A. Dickey is, a 36-year-old knuckleballer who started being effective only two years ago is almost the definition of unprojectable. The Mets had a bad 2011, and Niese is exactly the kind of commodity an established team in the biggest sports market in the world covets as it tries to bounce back into contention: young and talented, with another season of team control before arbitration. Even as a back-of-the-rotation starter, he is promising and cheap enough to allow the team to focus its short-term payroll on other roster spots. Factoring in his age, projectability, and the scarcity of his skill set, he should be effectively untouchable. On December 8th, the Mets begin shopping Niese. -- It is July 31, 2011, Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline looms, and New York Met Jose Reyes is one of the most valuable commodities in baseball. He has been for some time now: an elite shortstop in full command of all his tools, Reyes can hit for average and power, has great speed and an arm that plays well from the hole, and defends his position well. The biggest complaint anyone has about his game is his durability, followed by throwing errors. When a shortstop's greatest perceived flaws are that he doesn't play enough games and that maybe he rushes a throw or two, he is a rare find. It's impossible to complain about Reyes's bat: he hit .354/.398/.529 (.927) in the first half. He is not only the best-hitting shortstop in baseball, he is one of the best-hitting players period. And Reyes is not only hitting, he's hitting hard: by the time the dust settles on the 2011 season, shortstops in the NL will have slugged .374 with Reyes�and .356 without him. Reyes is not actually this fantastic a hitter; he hasn't seen any noticeable spike in the percentage of line drives or fly balls that he hits as opposed to grounders, but his batting average is over .350 on balls in play. A massive part of his power surge is due to his 16 triples; he hits 12 of these at home in the cavernous confines of Citi Field. This is clearly a career year for his bat, and it comes right as his contract with the Mets is about to expire. Reyes will hit unrestricted free agency at the end of the season unless he is re-signed. In theory, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson has a choice: he can keep Reyes and try to re-sign him at the end of the season, or he can trade Reyes to a contender for prospects. By the end of July, the Mets are 55-53, well behind the division-leading Philadelphia Phillies (68-39) and the second-place Atlanta Braves (63-36). They are not in a position to make up that ground; their season is, essentially, over. If they are making moves at the deadline, they should be selling, and Reyes is their highest quality piece. Except that Alderson has already made his decision, or had it made for him: the Mets all but announce through Sports Illustrated's Jon Heyman and Buster Olney of ESPN that Reyes will not, under any circumstances, be traded. They do this over a week before the deadline, and there is justification for it at the time: Reyes has just come back from a hamstring injury that kept him from participating in the All-Star Game, to which he was selected as a starter. Nevertheless, that isn't the sort of injury that keeps a franchise shortstop off the market if his team thinks he'll simply walk in the offseason. The move is taken as a sign that the Mets are committed to re-signing Reyes, and why wouldn't they? He and third baseman David Wright are pillars of the franchise, and Reyes is a top-five talent at the most difficult position to play�and groom a replacement�in Major League Baseball. And he's just now entering the traditional prime years of his career. Why not lock him down for five or six more seasons? Even if the next two aren't any good, with a New York market team's money and resources and a somewhat weak National League, they should be back in the thick of things by the middle of the decade. But this point of view ignores what's really wrong with the Mets, and Jose Reyes remains on the team through the July 31st deadline. Reyes hits .305/.356/.428 (.784) in the second half, which is much less impressive than his numbers from early in the season� and still 100 points higher than the OPS of the average NL shortstop. He remains on the team through August, when the team is 10-16, and September, when it�s 12-16, and the playoffs, which it misses. He remains on the Mets through October and November, when no progress is made on any sort of new deal in New York. He remains on the Mets up until the moment free agency officially begins on December 1st. As the Mets open talks with multiple teams about Jonathon Niese's future on December 8th, Jose Reyes is being introduced in a conference room in a Dallas hotel. He has just signed a six-year, $106 million deal with the Miami Marlins. The Mets never even made him an offer. -- Why did the Mets let one of their franchise players walk, and why are they now shopping one of their most valuable major-league pieces? Because the Mets are owned by the Wilpon family, and their troubles are legion. There is not space enough here to recount the legal turmoil their ties to Bernie Madoff have put the team through, as well as the failures of their real-estate investments when the housing bubble collapsed. Imagine them as a caricature of everything wrong with the financial sector of the American economy, and you'll have paid them their due. They will not be selling the team; not at all. And so that the Wilpons can recoup all the losses they've recently suffered, the Mets will have to tighten their belts and pretend that $90 million is the highest payroll they can afford to run in a metropolitan area over 11 million strong, broadcasting on their own TV station. Sandy Alderson essentially has to act as if he's running a small-market team under the watchful eye of a big-market media. It's an unenviable task, doubly so since he has to pretend like it's all his idea. His problems begin with the decision not to trade Reyes. Unless Alderson is completely unaware of how compensation worked under the previous collective bargaining agreement, the decision to not deal Reyes at the deadline and then not credibly try to re-sign him falls squarely on ownership; otherwise, one hopes, Alderson would have dealt him and gotten something back. As it is, the Mets will receive the Marlins' second-round pick and nothing more. Part of the low-yield return for Reyes is simply bad luck. Under Alderson's predecessor Omar Minaya, the Mets had generally hewed closely to Major League Baseball's draft pick slot recommendations, often drafting easy slot signees with early picks and rarely buying out signability players in the later rounds. Alderson and Vice President of Player Development Paul DePodesta completely reverse this philosophy, plowing the extra couple million dollars a year into player development to maximize impact talent. In 2011, the Mets award bonuses of at least $250,000 in the 11th and 13th rounds to high-upside prep right-hander Christian Montgomery and athletic shortstop Brad Marquez, give a nearly unprecedented $650,000 bonus to shortstop Phillip Evans in the 15th round, and pay about 125 percent of slot to first-round outfielder Brandon Nimmo and supplemental-round pitcher Michael Fulmer to buy them away from college. Suddenly, the Mets are spending heavily to get their preferred talent in the draft, increasing both the projected value of draft picks obtained for Type-A free agents like Reyes and making rebuilding more feasible in general. And then everything goes wrong. First, the Elias Sports Bureau ranks Reyes only in the middle of the Type-A tier, meaning it's possible that the Mets won't even get the highest possible pick from Reyes's new team if that team signs someone above him on the list. Reyes then signs with the Marlins, a team with a first-round pick already protected from Type-A free agent signings. The Mets will still receive a supplemental first, but the compensatory pick from Miami will be a second-rounder at best�if baseball�s newest big spender signs Prince Fielder as well, that pick drops to a third. Meanwhile, the new CBA implements a strict cap on yearly draft spending. All teams will now have to abide by Major League Baseball's slot regulations�the ones the Mets had just started ignoring this year�at the risk of heavy financial and competitive penalties. This lessens the relative value of the picks the Mets will get back for Reyes, but worse, it eliminates the Mets' ability to buy projectable athletes away from college only a year after they'd started tapping that pool of talent. The new agreement leaves only two avenues essentially uncapped: MLB's traditional free agent market, and the international posting system that brought players such as Ichiro Suzuki and Daisuke Matsuzaka from the Japanese professional league to America. Any player in either market is at best already developed and worst declining�neither of which is an attractive option to a team in New York's position. The reason the Mets are shopping Niese in this environment is because Alderson realizes that with the restrictions imposed upon him, a Mets rebuild will not be short. For a few years, it will be ugly. R.A. Dickey will likely play out the rest of his career on teams fighting the Washington Nationals for fourth place or, at best, the Atlanta Braves or Miami Marlins for third, assuming he's not dealt somewhere else. The Mets' strategy is to spend like they're a Kansas City, a Pittsburgh, or a Baltimore, though one hopes with a bit more competence; Alderson and company are stalling until the cavalry arrives and hoping pitching prospects Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, and Jeurys Familia will lead the charge. When running a full-on, tire-fire, small-market rebuild under a CBA designed to prevent them, the ability to acquire elite talent through the trade market is essential. While Jose Reyes was off-limits at the deadline, long-time Met Carlos Beltran was not; Alderson sent him to the San Francisco Giants and got Zack Wheeler in return. Wheeler was taken sixth overall in the 2009 Amateur Draft and was ranked the 52nd-best prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus this past offseason; Baseball America had him 55th. This year he struck out over 10 batters per nine and showed improved command at High-A, mixing an excellent fastball with a developing curve, and he has the potential to lead a rotation. When you can get a guy like that for two months of a right fielder with an arthritic knee who contractually couldn�t return draft picks as a free agent, you pull the trigger and walk away. Harvey and Familia have broadly similar profiles to Wheeler: good fastballs, potential out-pitch breaking balls, changes that need lots of work, and tons of strikeouts. Harvey was ranked 75th by BP despite never having thrown a professional pitch before this season. Working off his fastball and an excellent curve, he struck out over 10 batters per nine in a year split between High-A and Double-A. Familia rebounded from major control problems in 2010 to dominate the same levels and may reach the majors the fastest of the three. They're not the only talented pitching prospects the Mets have; there's Jenrry Mejia, who already appeared on the big-league club in 2010 as part of Omar Minaya's last, farcical year as general manager, and Michael Fulmer and Darin Gorski have promise as well. But Wheeler, Harvey, and Familia are the most promising and exciting of the bunch, and the Mets are betting the rebuild that the three of them turn into the next Generation K. Generation K, of course, was an abject failure. In 1995, the Mets had three young strikeout artists who caught fire in the minor leagues, skyrocketed through the organization, and looked poised to dominate the majors for years to come. By the end of 1996, that dream was done. Only one of the three men, Jason Isringhausen, pitched in the majors for any substantial length of time, and he quickly moved from the rotation to the bullpen. The other two, Bill Pulsipher and Paul Wilson, ended up like so many other elite pitching prospects, their careers derailed by arm injuries, their time in the majors bitterly short. Hopefully the current crop fares better, but the odds aren't in their favor. The overhand throwing motion is one of the most unnatural, destructive things an arm can do, and many young people with bright futures ahead of them suffer for it. In 2011, Generation K remains as much a cautionary tale against expectation as it does a wistful descriptor. And that's what the current Mets rebuild is depending on: a crop of very good pitching prospects, any of whom could explode at any time. The hitting side of their system is a hodge-podge of filler and risky players with potential. The 2011 class, led by Brandon Nimmo, was very heavy on high-upside, high-school talents, most of whom made only token appearances in rookie ball after signing. It will be years before the Mets can evaluate whether they have any keepers in that lot. They have toolsy hitters Wilmer Flores and Cesar Puello several levels up in A-ball, but neither has converted his tools into skills yet. The most polished position prospects in the system are center fielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and second baseman Reese Havens, both of whom missed much of 2011 with injuries. Havens cannot stay healthy, averaging only 63 games played in his three professional seasons, and Nieuwenhuis�s ultimate future may lie in a corner instead of center. Both will get their shot; with Angel Pagan gone to San Francisco and Ruben Tejada moving over to shortstop, center field and second base could be open on the major-league team as early as spring training. But these players don�t have the high ceilings of their pitching counterparts. New York doesn�t have any cornerstone prospects who play the field; the next Jose Reyes or Carlos Beltran isn't waiting in Double-A. Those guys the Mets will have to go out and get. For fans, a rebuild is often humbling and occasionally humiliating. There are moments of rage during press conferences, envy as rivals grow stronger, and despair as summer marches on, loss after loss. The losing isn't so bad; it's not competing that hurts. Hope is fleeting and untelevised; it lives only in minor-league box scores. A rebuilding team is a miserable shadow of something meant to be fun. And there could be a moment coming for Mets fans more painful and distressing than any moment that's come before, even more so because it is the sort of move that is absolutely essential to a rebuild's success. The Mets have their eyes on tomorrow, and Sandy Alderson knows that to get there he must bargain away today. Today, the New York Mets are David Wright. -- Wright is a conundrum. He turns 29 in a few weeks and should be in the prime of his career, but after hitting .312/.396/.537 (.933) from age 23 to 25, he's slowed to a more modest .284/.364/.463 (.827) since. Perhaps Wright�s dropoff at the plate is due to his ballpark and a string of fluky injuries, including a severe concussion from a fastball to the head in 2009 and a broken back that he played with for nearly a month in 2011. Or, more forebodingly, perhaps it�s a sign of an early decline. In theory, the Mets control Wright for the next two years at $31 million, making him an attractive commodity in a market where many teams are looking to avoid long-term commitments. But the Mets can only effectively market one of those two years. The final year of Wright's contract is a team option with a twist: if Wright is traded before the option is picked up, Wright can void the option year and become a free agent after the 2012 season. At the time of his extension in 2006, it seemed inconceivable that the Mets would ever trade David Wright; he was the young superstar face of a franchise poised to compete in the National League. Five years later, that minor provision is suddenly a major factor for both Wright and the Mets. The new CBA further complicates things, as it removes free agent compensation for departing players acquired during the previous season. Thus, players like Wright may have more value as full-year rentals even though the market can be most competitive near the trade deadline; it depends how the buyer values compensatory picks. Given that it barely matters when Wright is traded, Alderson now needs to figure out which is the real David Wright: the superstar on track for the Hall of Fame, or the solid third baseman with growing injury concerns. If it's the latter, he should trade Wright immediately, because his value will never again be higher. Even if he thinks Wright will come back strong but not as what he once was, he should still deal him�just not until the trade deadline, or even after the 2012 season. (The Mets are free to exercise Wright's team option and then deal him, after all.) And if Alderson thinks that the real David Wright is that guy who hit the majors at age 23 and set New York City on fire, a legitimate Hall of Fame third baseman, then he might even explore extending Wright long-term as a bridge to those hopefully-contending teams four or five years down the road. Make no mistake: it is sunset in Flushing. The Mets said as much when they didn't offer Reyes a contract. Nevertheless, Wright was not on the table at this year's Winter Meetings; it remains to be seen if the Mets will part with him, and if not, whether that's Alderson's call or ownership's. As Jose Reyes begins moving his life down the coast to Miami and Jonathon Niese waits by the phone for the other shoe to drop, all that's left for Mets fans is the sighing, the cursing, the bitter unfairness, and the waiting. But soon it will be spring, and they'll find themselves checking reports from spring training; hearing names like Wheeler and Harvey and Familia maybe for the first time. A year will pass, then two, and those names will become familiar to their lips. They will worry about these names and their arms, perhaps more than is healthy. In time, they will begin to hope. They will check the minor-league box scores and try not to think of 1996. Then they will wait, and wait some more. And one day the sun will rise again.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15644

[batmagadanleadoff]

Check with Sandy': Mets plead ignorance on plans for next year
By Howard Megdal
12:26 pm Aug. 15, 2012

If you don't have any idea what the debt-plagued Mets are capable of doing this winter to improve a 55-61 team, you're not alone. Apparently, general manager Sandy Alderson and owner Fred Wilpon don't have any idea, either. On Saturday night, Newsday's David Lennon approached Wilpon prior to the game at Citi Field and asked him whether the team will be able to improve this winter. "Check with Sandy," came the reply from the man who will determine just how much Sandy can spend. Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal asked Alderson on Tuesday what payroll will be going forward. Alderson said he isn't sure. "I haven't had any conversations with ownership about it," Alderson said. "I'm still focused on 2012, as is the rest of the front office. Over the next several weeks, that focus will shift, but it really hasn't yet." That's strange for a number of reasons. For one thing, the Mets just acquired a catcher, Kelly Shoppach, who the Mets view as a possible contributor in 2013. And earlier this year, the team told Costa it was preparing to offer David Wright a long-term contract. So by the team's own acknowledgement, they are thinking about 2013, at least a little. That should be a welcome relief to those who believe a multi-million dollar corporation ought to plan at least two months ahead. It also flies in the face of Alderson's planning last year. Alderson spoke of payroll projections all year, revealing a number between $130 and $150 million in February, $120 million in May (after Fred Wilpon had asserted in Sports Illustrated that the number would be closer to $100 million), and between $100 and $110 million in September. Ultimately, the Mets clocked in at just under $92 million. If, as the Mets have maintained, the settlement of the lawsuit against them by the trustee for the Bernie Madoff victims and a concurrent minority sale eliminated the uncertainty they were facing, wouldn't things like payroll be stable enough to be revealed just two months until free agency begins? And if Alderson was willing to discuss it last year, why wouldn't he be willing to this year? The answer is that stability never made sense as a reality stemming from the settlement and minority sale. The sale paid a number of past-due obligations, and runs out within 2012, leaving ownership with massive debts and a money-losing team to address them. And the settlement, which likely requires the Mets' owners to pay nothing, came about because the trustee didn't believe the owners had any money to pay even the $83 million judgment that served as a floor in the litigation before the trial was to begin. The reason the payroll question is so massive, as Alderson undoubtedly knows, is that the Mets have a large amount of salary already committed for 2013. Jason Bay and Johan Santana will make $50 million in 2013, between salary and buyouts of their 2014 options. Without contract extensions or other renegotiation, R.A. Dickey and David Wright will earn another $21 million; any extension would probably have to revise those numbers upwards, to entice either to stay. Jonathon Niese and Frank Francisco will earn another $9.5 million. That's a total of $80.5 million for six players, including two in Bay and Santana who are anything but certain to contribute to the Mets in 2013. So if Alderson is to do anything but fill out the roster with league-minimum players--that salary is $490,000 in 2013, or $9,310,000 for 19 players, bringing the Mets to around $90 million--he'll need an increased payroll. The catcher he just acquired, Shoppach, a free agent this winter, will require more money than the minimum to be retained. Yet Alderson's comments yesterday are based on the idea that he hasn't so much as discussed whether he can retain the catcher he just traded for. Of course, at this time last year, Alderson was busy insisting that the then-ongoing Madoff litigation would have no effect on the team's ability to spend, something he then insisted had changed once the litigation had conclded. With the team eager to lock in its season ticket holders for 2013, pushing that renewal date forward several months in 2012 to August 31, they have a clear commercial incentive to trumpet any newfound ability to spend money on players to the world. The fact that they are instead falling back on the implausible claims, like the owner of the team referring budget questions to a general manager who says he hasn't discussed or thought about them, is as revealing as anything they could have said.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2012/08/6448277/check-sandy-mets-plead-ignorance-plans-next-year

[Centerfield]

I get this bad feeling that the Mets are going to suck for a long time.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: I get this bad feeling that the Mets are going to suck for a long time.

seems unlikely.