Phils

[Edgy MD]

Howard Johnson didn't have a particularly good season in 1986. He started slow and Knight started Hot and by mid-May, Ray Knight was the third-basemen and Johnson backing him and Rafael Santana up. But he always said he was satisfied with his part in the team because he hit the homer that finished the Cardinals off.

I tend to wonder if players really look at things that way, whether they can feel that sort of thing as well as they claim to. And I wonder if the Mets could go into the clubhouse last night and say, "Gee, I think we just ended the Phillies' season. I could just feel the morale lift off of them. The whole park smelled like surrender."

Now, they'd be fools to state that out loud, because they aren't exactly streaking ahead like the 1986 team, or in any sort of catbird seat at all. Lots of work to be done. The Phils management, in all likelihood, will play this out for the next few weeks, hoping against the odds that Howard and Utley back in the lineup and Halladay back in the rotation and a reborn Lee and lots of division play can light a fire under the team, at least until the end of July, when they have to make the hard choices.

Anyhow, a lot of talk out there on the information superhighway that the 2012 Phils died last night, extra wild-card spot be damned. I dunno, seems a little over-zealous, but a good win under any circs.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Not dead yet. Anybody remember 2007?

[Edgy MD]

A little bit.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

They've passed on! This ballclub is no more! They have ceased to be! They've expired and gone to meet their maker! They're a stiff! Bereft of life, they rest in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'em to the bench they'd be pushing up the daisies! Their metabolic processes are now 'istory! They're off the twig! They kicked the bucket, they shuffled off their mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-BALLCLUB!

[Guest themetfairy]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Not dead yet. Anybody remember 2007?

No counting out division rivals prematurely!

[MFS62]

Make believe its a monster movie - pump some more rounds into 'em, just to make sure.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I definitely should have included "off the twig" as an option.

[TransMonk]

I chose "dead". If they would have pulled off the win last night, I might feel differently...but that spark was snuffed.

Having to leap the rest of the division from last place is a different situation than 2007 and I don't think they have the tools. Getting Howard and Halladay back may provide a start...but they really only have 3 weeks to prove that they can contend before Amaro has to decide if he is selling. Unless they are excellent between now and the deadline, I would think they will try to sell what they can in order to re-stock their bare farm system.

[ashie62]

Not yet...unless they sell

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Phils didn't give away last night's game-- the Mets took it, by taking advantage of the baserunning overzealousness, and working great at-bats against an on-point Papelbon. Tuesday night notwithstanding, the Phils came to Citi with gameplans in tow, and-- for the most part-- executed said plans with some aplomb; considering how undermanned they are at present, they played a pretty damn good series.

Add Halladay, a slight improvement in the 'pen, and, say, a Rollins hot streak to that mix, and you've got a team that can do some damage (provided they don't "sell" soon).

[Ceetar]

themetfairy wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Not dead yet. Anybody remember 2007? No counting out division rivals prematurely!

unless it's March and we're talking about the Mets obviously.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Add Halladay, a slight improvement in the 'pen, and, say, a Rollins hot streak to that mix, and you've got a team that can do some damage (provided they don't "sell" soon).

It's Ryan Howard they need to bank on. I don't see Victorino or Rollins doing much improving beyond say offsetting Ruiz coming back down to earth. There was no way the pitching was going to be what it was last year, and even if Lee has a good second half and Halladay returns to be Halladay, they'll have less offense and won't be able to make up that ground.

[Edgy MD]

So, I take that as a "Dead" vote for Ceetar.

Guess I'm rooting for them against Atlanta this weekend. Not that I think they're safely dead, but they're deader than the Braves.

Howard probably gets activated during the series, but maybe not by tonight.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: So, I take that as a "Dead" vote for Ceetar. Guess I'm rooting for them against Atlanta this weekend. Not that I think they're safely dead, but they're deader than the Braves. Howard probably gets activated during the series, but maybe not by tonight.

oh, i left out that I voted 'not dead'. They're in ICU and could certainly make a full recovery, I just don't believe it's going to happen. They're certainly less dead for the Wild Card as well.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ceetar wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Add Halladay, a slight improvement in the 'pen, and, say, a Rollins hot streak to that mix, and you've got a team that can do some damage (provided they don't "sell" soon). It's Ryan Howard they need to bank on. I don't see Victorino or Rollins doing much improving beyond say offsetting Ruiz coming back down to earth. There was no way the pitching was going to be what it was last year, and even if Lee has a good second half and Halladay returns to be Halladay, they'll have less offense and won't be able to make up that ground.

Halladay/starting pitching is FAR more important than Howard, or any offensive improvement; this team won the last two division crowns with little-to-no consistent offense. And the other two things I mentioned are more like fat-middle-of-the-bell-curve possibilities than longshots; with a shouting-distance-of-league-average 'pen and starting pitching approaching last year, this team could be well-poised to take advantage of, say, August National doldrums.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

[Frayed Knot]

With Halladay (due soon), a presumably better and luckier Lee, a still good Hamels, plus a returned Utley, Howard (probably tonight), and a revived Rollins, it's too soon to count them out.
Five more games out and/or maybe twenty more off the schedule and I'll consider changing my mind.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Add Halladay, a slight improvement in the 'pen, and, say, a Rollins hot streak to that mix, and you've got a team that can do some damage (provided they don't "sell" soon). It's Ryan Howard they need to bank on. I don't see Victorino or Rollins doing much improving beyond say offsetting Ruiz coming back down to earth. There was no way the pitching was going to be what it was last year, and even if Lee has a good second half and Halladay returns to be Halladay, they'll have less offense and won't be able to make up that ground. Halladay/starting pitching is FAR more important than Howard, or any offensive improvement; this team won the last two division crowns with little-to-no consistent offense. And the other two things I mentioned are more like fat-middle-of-the-bell-curve possibilities than longshots; with a shouting-distance-of-league-average 'pen and starting pitching approaching last year, this team could be well-poised to take advantage of, say, August National doldrums.

Rollins is .005 off his OPS from last year. The last time he had an OPS higher was 2008. There's no hot st reak coming. Even if it all came together and they played at last year's level (career low ERA for ALL of their pitchers) they'd still fall short of the Mets and Nationals pace so far. And they won't. A lot went right last year for them. I'm not sure who we're expecting to be league-average reliever of that bunch.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Since 2007 the Phillies have won 102, 97, 93, 92 and 89 games. To get to 89 wins, which is probably what they need to get in, they would have to win 52 of 78, exactly .667, or a 108 win pace. That's not a hot streak, but half a season at the same pace as the 1986 Mets.

They need to be better than they have been in the past five years - way better, with one exception - over three full months to reach the probable lowest number of wins to get into the playoffs. They're dead.

[Ceetar]

Swan Swan H wrote: Since 2007 the Phillies have won 102, 97, 93, 92 and 89 games. To get to 89 wins, which is probably what they need to get in, they would have to win 52 of 78, exactly .667, or a 108 win pace. That's not a hot streak, but half a season at the same pace as the 1986 Mets. They need to be better than they have been in the past five years - way better, with one exception - over three full months to reach the probable lowest number of wins to get into the playoffs. They're dead.

yeah but..they can influence that 89 win target by how they play against the team they're chasing. Granted it was only a .500 start in 2007, but they played at .608 the second half. But they complemented that with 9 wins against the Mets. Even just 8 doesn't get them in. If they didn't play the Mets at all chances are the Mets don't lose 9 and probably win a slightly higher number that keeps them out.

[metirish]

They are phucked, phuck them.....phucking assholes.

[TransMonk]

Eventually this thread should get moved to our under-utilized "Predictions" sub-forum.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Ceetar wrote: Since 2007 the Phillies have won 102, 97, 93, 92 and 89 games. To get to 89 wins, which is probably what they need to get in, they would have to win 52 of 78, exactly .667, or a 108 win pace. That's not a hot streak, but half a season at the same pace as the 1986 Mets. They need to be better than they have been in the past five years - way better, with one exception - over three full months to reach the probable lowest number of wins to get into the playoffs. They're dead. yeah but..they can influence that 89 win target by how they play against the team they're chasing. Granted it was only a .500 start in 2007, but they played at .608 the second half. But they complemented that with 9 wins against the Mets. Even just 8 doesn't get them in. If they didn't play the Mets at all chances are the Mets don't lose 9 and probably win a slightly higher number that keeps them out.

I'm not sure what point you are making here.

Are you saying that they are contending for the division? They are 13 games out with 78 to go. Washington is on a 97 win pace. If the Nats play .500 the rest of the way they still win 90 games. I think we've already established that the Phillies getting to 90 wins is a pipe dream.

Are you saying they are contending for the wild card? Here is the win total for the team that missed the playoffs the past eleven years, but would get that last spot this year:

89, 90, 88, 89, 89, 85, 88, 91, 87, 92, 90

So let's say that this is the second year of the past twelve that 85 wins would get you in. Even to get there they would need to play at a 100-win pace for the next three months - something they have only done once in the past five years. They would, starting tonight, have to turn on a dime and go from a .440 team to a .615 team in order to get to 85 wins, and hope that six of the seven teams ahead of them in the wild card race slide back to 84 wins at the same time.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

[ashie62]

Mets � Willets Point wrote:

"I'm not dead yet!" "But you will be soon."

[soupcan]

"Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer, dead! Phillies...DEAD!"

[Zvon]

I can't count em out til Ruben Amaro Jr does. That guy keeps cards up his sleeve.

[nymr83]

Dead.

Oh, and Phuck Philly.

[Fman99]

[Guest Swan Swan H]

Trouble in Paradise? Tweeted by Rob Parent of the Delaware County Daily Times:

Looks like Victorino is ticked and that's why he's scratched. Walked into clubhouse, soon saw he was No. 7 in lineup, walked out wordlessly.

Jason Pridie takes his spot in the lineup.

[Edgy MD]

Paradise?