Already a bad deal?

[Centerfield]

As some of you may have heard, Jose Reyes signed a 6 year, $106 million deal with the Miami Marlins. Some on this board went a little nutty insisting he had to be re-signed at all costs. Ahem. Some were more level-headed and called it a bad deal and were glad the Mets passed.

Checking in on Jose after roughly a third of the season has been played has him checking in at .270/.346/.386 (OPS .732). $17 million is a lot to spend on a player with an OPS in the low .700's. Jose has also swiped 16 bases (caught 4 times) putting him on pace to steal about 39 bases. (He's 5th in the league, 7th in the majors). His OPS puts him 9th among shortstops in baseball (Tulowitzky currently does not qualify).

The knock on Reyes has always been his OBP. Last year, even when he hit .337, his OBP was only .384. Also, it was tough to know whether last year was the year he figured it all out, or whether he was likely to revert back to an OPS in the .700's again.

He's 29 years old, and his days of swiping 60 bases seem to be behind him.

If Miami came and offered him back to you now (at full salary), would you take him? Did Sandy make the right call?

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Seems to early to judge, as he may come back and do great things for the Marlins, but I already thought the deal was too much for the Mets to offer and was okay with them trying not to match it or exceed it.

[Edgy MD]

Will they take Bay? Will they take Bonilla?

He certainly will have some spots of 2011-like success going forward, but theyll grow-fewer and further apart.

I'd love to have him back, if the salary thing can be adjusted. Else, the ship has sailed.

[TransMonk]

I'm still happy with passing. The length of the deal was too long and I said so at the time. Jose will have better days (he wasn't always the most consistent player from year-to-year in NYC, either).

The best news for me isn't so much the blah year that Reyes is having, but that the rag-tag bunch of Mets shortstops have combined for 6 more runs, 5 more doubles, 3 more RBIs and just as many HRs as Jose this season.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: If Miami came and offered him back to you now (at full salary), would you take him? Did Sandy make the right call?

Presuming it doesn't affect alternative payroll concerns? In a heartbeat. I think the contract was roughly just right (and even more so for the homegrown legendary Met aspect) and I'd still wager he'll be valuable through all 6 years of it.

Did you know his OBP is over .350 over his last 7 seasons? yeah.

It's also roughly 4 seasons too early to tell if Sandy "made the right call".

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: I'd still wager he'll be valuable through all 6 years of it.

Depending on how you define "value", I'd take that wager.

[Lefty Specialist]

If Florida makes the post-season a few times with him having a hand in it, then it's a good deal. That's how I judge these things, and I'm betting that's how Jeffrey Loria looks at it too.

A-Rod for $25 million/yr to an otherwise mediocre Texas franchise is a waste. A-Rod for $25 million as the capstone of the Yankees in the mid-2000's is a different story.

[Edgy MD]

FanGraphs puts a dollar value on every player's production, according to the market. If he exceeds his salary in that dollar amount, Ceetar wins.

I'm excited at the thought that we may be here at the end of Reyes' contract. Who wants to bet me with regards to Joey Votto's contract?

[TransMonk]

Edgy DC wrote: FanGraphs puts a dollar value on every player's production, according to the market. If he exceeds his salary in that dollar amount, Ceetar wins.

I'm cool with that if Ceetar is. Case of beer...loser's choice?

I made a bet with my brother last Xmas that the Mets would win more games than the Marlins over the term of Jose's deal. I'm currently ahead on that one.

[Gwreck]

These sort of hindsight things are always tough to measure.

Would the Mets have won more games to date with Reyes instead of the Tejada-Cedeno-Valdespin-Quintanilla-Turner lineup we set out there? Yes.

[HahnSolo]

I wouldn't be so quick to judge...Carlos Beltran didn't exactly set the world on fire in the first year of his contract.

[TransMonk]

Gwreck wrote: Would the Mets have won more games to date with Reyes instead of the Tejada-Cedeno-Valdespin-Quintanilla-Turner lineup we set out there? Yes.

I'm not sure how that can be sliced as a blanket yes or no question. If they answer is yes, then it is by a win or two at best.

If that's the question we are going to be asking, then forget Reyes...they should have re-signed Beltran last winter.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

avi

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: If that's the question we are going to be asking, then forget Reyes...they should have re-signed Beltran last winter.

I'll admit I was a proponent of that. He was probably outside their price range as well.

TransMonk wrote: Edgy DC wrote: FanGraphs puts a dollar value on every player's production, according to the market. If he exceeds his salary in that dollar amount, Ceetar wins. I'm cool with that if Ceetar is. Case of beer...loser's choice? I made a bet with my brother last Xmas that the Mets would win more games than the Marlins over the term of Jose's deal. I'm currently ahead on that one.

Not quite what I meant. I don't know that Reyes fangraph perceived value exceeds his contract in his 6th (2017 right?) year. I was more going along the lines of being a contributing player and not a liability or a 2010 Castillo type player. Not a lynchpin or dynamic leadoff hitter, but a helpful player who the Marlins* don't feel like they need an upgrade on. Top third SS in the NL type.

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: Not quite what I meant. I don't know that Reyes fangraph perceived value exceeds his contract in his 6th (2017 right?) year. I was more going along the lines of being a contributing player and not a liability or a 2010 Castillo type player. Not a lynchpin or dynamic leadoff hitter, but a helpful player who the Marlins* don't feel like they need an upgrade on. Top third SS in the NL type.

How but an aggregate over the 6 years? I'm not asking for his value to exceed his contract in 2017, but it would need to exceed the contract value in total over the 6 years.

If not, what would be a fair measure over the life of the deal?

[ashie62]

Jose Reyes .270 2 hr 16 rbi Barf..

[nymr83]

Ashie62 wrote: Jose Reyes .270 2 hr 16 rbi Barf..

Are we really citing a leadoff hitter's RBI total to try and make a point about the quality of his play this year? Barf.

[metsmarathon]

Ceetar wrote: Not quite what I meant. I don't know that Reyes fangraph perceived value exceeds his contract in his 6th (2017 right?) year. I was more going along the lines of being a contributing player and not a liability or a 2010 Castillo type player. Not a lynchpin or dynamic leadoff hitter, but a helpful player who the Marlins* don't feel like they need an upgrade on. Top third SS in the NL type.

well, the argument isn't that reyes will or won't be a decent or good player, but rather whether reyes is bing grossly overpaid or not.

"top third SS in the NL type" is a bit ephemeral and unquantified. it's on the right track, and certainly better than "don't be luis castillo"

you could always use average rank among qualified NL SS using WAR, either fangraphs or bb-ref.

but if you're doing that, then why not go straight to the fangraphs dollar value? $17M is about a 4-WAR player in the current market. that may go up or down in the ocming years, but its a decent place to start. i think the deal is a fair one if he gives you close to that over hte course of hte contract. its a good deal if you get much more than 4 WAR per season, and its a bad deal if you get much less.

how much less? dunno. if you get, say, 3 WAR out of reyes in a given season, you're overpaying him by over $4M. that would be a bad deal. is overpaying him by a penny a bad deal? no. i leave it to y'all bettors to figure out the correct level of badness.

for comparison, in 2010, fangraphs had luis castillo worth $2.7M, yet he was paid $6.25 M
another comparison. in 2011, the mfy got $19M of production out of arod, and all they paid was $33M. they also paid $15M for derek jeters $10M of production.

[Ceetar]

I could go into a long discussion on how dollar 'values' apply to actual baseball, but it's 4:55. Basically, I care about total value/WAR not $/per. If the Mets had paid say $50 million for a quality closer in 2007, that'd be a gross overpay but it probably would've gotten them into the playoffs.

[Edgy MD]

The question on the table is this contract and whether he'd earn this amount of money.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: The question on the table is this contract and whether he'd earn this amount of money.

Well, I think the team will think he's worth it. Will he fangraphs $17 million? That's a little less certain and I'm not in love with the way they calculate value.

But sure. I'd wager that he will. Add it to the wagers thread..although keeping that one around and active for 6 years might be tricky.

[Gwreck]

TransMonk wrote: If they answer is yes, then it is by a win or two at best.

Isn't that the sort of thing that WAR measures? Note that I agree that Tejada is probably better than "replacement level" but he got hurt. Cedeno/Valdespin/Turner/Quantanilla? That's replacement level.

Hence the difficulty in looking at things in hindsight. Yes, the Mets would have more wins if they had Reyes rather than their shortstop combo. The difference between Reyes and the hypothetical full-season-Tejada is admittedly less.

they should have re-signed Beltran last winter.

Yes, they should have.

[Edgy MD]

Replacement level is pretty much designed to be the average performance of players grabbed off waiver wires. All those guys would seemingly exceed that.

[Frayed Knot]

Our thoughts at the time of the signing

Basically 18 of the 32 of us who voted (there are 32 of us?!?) were, to varying degrees, of the opinion that Sandy should have matched the deal that Florida gave him.
7 more were on the fence. 7 others wanted no part of it.

[metsmarathon]

in hindsight, the pr disaster angle seems somewhat overplayed, no...?

[Edgy MD]

Ya think?

Modest admiration for the nutjobs still bringing it even as history passes 'em by.

[Ceetar]

if I'm doing the Math right it's about 900 a game or so so far. For a 'fair' comparison they need about 4 more home games which will clear the Yankees series in both years. I think they're down about 32000 through tonight so they'd need to sell about 60k in that Phillies game on Monday to tie. or 140,000 through the series.

Not that it really matters. They'll trail in attendance from last year through to late August probably.

[ashie62]

Nymr83 wrote: Ashie62 wrote: Jose Reyes .270 2 hr 16 rbi Barf.. Are we really citing a leadoff hitter's RBI total to try and make a point about the quality of his play this year? Barf.

It's all part of the package..At any rate.. he is not earning his salary by any metric other than the ability to sign the check.

[Gwreck]

metsmarathon wrote: in hindsight, the pr disaster angle seems somewhat overplayed, no...?

No doubt, although the team winning has a way of ameliorating those things. Mets don't do well, it's a big problem. Mets win, it's "Jose who?"

[Ceetar]

Gwreck wrote: metsmarathon wrote: in hindsight, the pr disaster angle seems somewhat overplayed, no...? No doubt, although the team winning has a way of ameliorating those things. Mets don't do well, it's a big problem. Mets win, it's "Jose who?"

and will be the same for Wright. or anyone else.