Predict the Mets, 2012

[TransMonk]

Overall, I think the 4th place/under .500 predicitions will be closer to the mark than 97 wins, but obviously, anything's possible. This team has more potential than those of the past few years, so if nothing else they should be exciting and fun.

I do believe the Mets will finish (with a cluster of other teams) within 10 games of the 2nd wildcard, providing what some will call meaningful games in September.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I'm rooting for my child, too. But I'm not banking on her being able to read Ulysses by the end of the summer.

Hope for something vaguely realistic, and you won't be so disappointed that you end up, say, wanting to throw out $5 million dollar assets for having a bad Spring Training, or shitting on a knuckleballer/bearded good/decent guy just because.

[metirish]

" Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane"

[Vic Sage]

"Hope" is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul
And sings the tune without the words
And never stops at all

And sweetest in the Gale is heard
And sore must be the storm
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm

I've heard it in the chillest land
And on the strangest Sea
Yet, never, in Extremity,
It asked a crumb of Me.

- Emily Dickinson

"How wrong Emily Dickinson was! Hope is not "the thing with feathers". The thing with feathers has turned to be my nephew. I must take him to a specialist in Zurich." - Woody Allen

[Edgy MD]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I'm rooting for my child, too. But I'm not banking on her being able to read Ulysses by the end of the summer. Hope for something vaguely realistic, and you won't be so disappointed that you end up, say, wanting to throw out $5 million dollar assets for having a bad Spring Training, or shitting on a knuckleballer/bearded good/decent guy just because.

I'm more or less cool with the notion that it might not play out to 97 wins. Baseball wins are a zero-sum game. All the kids can't be above average. One man's glory is another's disappointment. Cultural advancement, though, that can happen anywhere and any time. So, strive to win, yeah, but don't be a douchebag under any circumstances.

[Fman99]

123-39. Win every fucking thing. BOOK IT.

[bmfc1]

Bump.

[nymr83]

70-92
last in the NL East.
no playoffs

[MFS62]

Where they will finish in the NL East - Fourth
What the final record will be - 78-84

But I'm as excited as a Pointer Sister about this season.
I think the Mets will both play exciting baseball with a lot of offense, as well as begin to show us more than a peek at some of the good prospects emerging from the minors.

Side note - good job, Edgy, in the BP DePodesta interview, even if he dwelt too much on your handle and didn't fully answer what you were asking to my satisfaction.
I thought you were asking if there is going to be a top-to-bottom organizational "playbook" such as the one Frank Cashen brought from Baltimore, from which things (like where to station the cutoff man, defending bunt plays, etc) are taught uniformly across all levels of the organization. He seemed to indicate different coaching will be permitted. Not what I wanted to hear.

Later

[Edgy MD]

This 6-2 team is:

A. large illusion
B. a slight illusion
C. just a thang
D. a brief departure from an otherwise sad reality
E. an ephemeral tease before a cataclysmic disaster

Any re-assessments, or do we wait for game 10?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd wait until May 15 or so.

This has been a lot of fun, but there's a long way to go.

[TransMonk]

Where they are at Memorial Day will be a good indicator to me.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

We've been helped by the opposition in 2 of 3 series being pretty underwhelming themselves so far. I think it's possible what we'ree guilty of is overrating the competition as much as underrating the Mets.

OTOH, Washington looks to have some mojo going themselves. Be great if the 2 of us ran and hid.

[Edgy MD]

Poster	W	L	Pct	Games off
Fman99	123	39	.759	29
Willets Point	102	60	.630	8
Edgy DC	97	65	.599	3
Current Met Pace	94	68	.578	--
metsguyinmichigan	87	75	.537	7
Ceetar	85	77	.525	9
John Cougar Lunchbucket	84	78	.519	10
metsmarathon	82	80	.506	12
Ashie62	82	80	.506	12
themetfairy	81	81	.500	13
Transmonk	78	84	.481	16
MFS62	78	84	.481	16
bfmc1	77	85	.475	17
Benjamin Grimm	76	86	.469	18
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr	76	86	.469	18
HahnSolo	75	87	.463	19
G-Fafif	74	88	.457	20
metirish	74	88	.457	20
Vic Sage	72	90	.444	22
The Second Spitter	70	92	.432	24
Nymr83	70	92	.432	24
Chad Ochoseis	69	93	.426	25
Gwreck	63	99	.389	31

[bmfc1]

Nice job with the chart Edgy.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: Where they are at Memorial Day will be a good indicator to me.

at worst, a 3 over team.

[batmagadanleadoff]

It's no coincidence that I didn't predict the Mets. I usually avoid participating in these threads. Because ya never know.

[Fman99]

Edgy DC wrote: Poster W L Pct Games off Fman99 123 39 .759 29 Willets Point 102 60 .630 8 Edgy DC 97 65 .599 3 Current Met Pace 94 68 .578 -- metsguyinmichigan 87 75 .537 7 Ceetar 85 77 .525 9 John Cougar Lunchbucket 84 78 .519 10 metsmarathon 82 80 .506 12 Ashie62 82 80 .506 12 themetfairy 81 81 .500 13 Transmonk 78 84 .481 16 MFS62 78 84 .481 16 bfmc1 77 85 .475 17 Benjamin Grimm 76 86 .469 18 LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 76 86 .469 18 HahnSolo 75 87 .463 19 G-Fafif 74 88 .457 20 metirish 74 88 .457 20 Vic Sage 72 90 .444 22 The Second Spitter 70 92 .432 24 Nymr83 70 92 .432 24 Chad Ochoseis 69 93 .426 25 Gwreck 63 99 .389 31

This just proves how much more awesome I am than all of you negative Nellies.

[Edgy MD]

I think I miscalculated and metsguy was closest to correct as of that post. I may be more correct today, though. Will recalc tomorrow.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I initially missed this thread (along with many others) during my work related hiatus, but I would have been expecting an 81-81 season and hoping for better. I'm not that sure that I expect much different (maybe 85 or 86 wins) from that at this point. It just seems to me that the Mets are winning with "smoke and mirrors" and I wonder how long it can actually last. Hopefully, I'm underestimating their talent and I will be pleasantly surprised come the end of the season.

[nymr83]

Fman99 wrote: This just proves how much more awesome I am than all of you negative Nellies.

While we'd all love for your prediction to come true, you are still further off the pace than all but the single most pessimistic person.

[Edgy MD]

metsguyinmichigan is our new leading soothsayer.

Poster	W	L	Pct	Games off
Fman99	123	39	.759	32
Willets Point	102	60	.630	11
Edgy DC	97	65	.599	6
Current Met Pace	91	71	.560	--
metsguyinmichigan	87	75	.537	4
Ceetar	85	77	.525	6
John Cougar Lunchbucket	84	78	.519	7
metsmarathon	82	80	.506	9
Ashie62	82	80	.506	9
themetfairy	81	81	.500	10
Rockin' Doc (coming in late)	81	81	.500	10
Transmonk	78	84	.481	13
MFS62	78	84	.481	13
bfmc1	77	85	.475	14
Benjamin Grimm	76	86	.469	15
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr	76	86	.469	15
HahnSolo	75	87	.463	16
G-Fafif	74	88	.457	17
metirish	74	88	.457	17
Vic Sage	72	90	.444	19
The Second Spitter	70	92	.432	21
Nymr	70	92	.432	21
Chad Ochoseis	69	93	.426	22
Gwreck	63	99	.389	28

[Edgy MD]

Records for each predictor represenst their predictions adjusted for the number of games played. Good job MGiM. His W% isn't quite the same as the actual Mets winning percentage as his actual prediction works out to 44.574... before rounding, but otherwise, dead on through 83 games for you.

Poster	W	L	Pct	Games off
Fman99	63	20	.759	18
Willets Point	52	31	.630	7
Edgy DC	50	33	.599	5
2012 Mets	45	38	.542	--
metsguyinmichigan	45	38	.537	0
ceetar	44	39	.525	1
John Cougar Luncbucket	43	40	.519	2
metsmarathon	42	41	.506	3
Ashie62	42	41	.506	3
themetfairy	42	42	.500	4
Rockin Doc	42	42	.500	4
Transmonk	40	43	.481	5
MFS62	40	43	.481	5
bfmc1	39	44	.475	6
Benjamin Grimm	39	44	.469	6
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr	39	44	.469	6
HahnSolo	38	45	.463	7
G-Fafif	38	45	.457	7
metirish	38	45	.457	7
Vic Sage	37	46	.444	8
The Second Spitter	36	47	.432	9
Nymr	36	47	.432	9
Chad Ochoseis	35	48	.426	10
Gwreck	32	51	.389	13

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Well, I did think they'd be better than all those last-place predictions. Would be happy if Fman is eventually correct!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yikes... I can't believe that it was only 20 days ago that the Mets had a .542 winning percentage. (They're now at .480 and project to 78 wins.)

[TransMonk]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: (They're now at .480 and project to 78 wins.)

Ugh, that's me.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets now need to go 16 and 0 to finish with a winning record, 15-1 to end at .500.

They currently project to 73 wins and 89 losses.

[Edgy MD]

Ech.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Vic and the Irish/G-Fafif/Hahn crowd are looking smart.

[Benjamin Grimm]

With only ten games remaining, these are the prognosticators who still have a chance at getting it exactly right:

Transmonk 78 84
MFS62 78 84
bfmc1 77 85
Benjamin Grimm 76 86
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr 76 86
HahnSolo 75 87
G-Fafif 74 88
metirish 74 88
Vic Sage 72 90
The Second Spitter 70 92
Nymr83 70 92
Chad Ochoseis 69 93

Assuming all ten remaining games get played, somebody will end up right on the money unless the Mets go 2-8 or 4-6. My hunch is that they'll go 3-7, giving Vic Sage the bragging rights.