Pelfrey in 2012

[Frayed Knot]

Declare your predictions and state your case as to the status of one Michael Pelfrey come opening day 2012.

[Ceetar]

I think he'll be resigned.

I'd probably do the same, depending. I'd definitely consider trading for another starting pitcher this offseason, with some of the extraneous 'decent' parts the Mets have. If you could pull in something decent that way, I'd look to swap Pelfrey for a nice prospect or something. Provided Santana is on scheduled for opening day anyway.

[smg58]

He's had enough good years to justify his 2012 salary. Keeping him or trading him depends on other moves the Mets make. They would need to add another starter before he would be expendable. If the Mets make the right bullpen upgrades, they could live with a rotation of Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey, and Gee.

[bmfc1]

I voted with my heart as I hope that he will be non-tendered the second the season ends. I never want to see him pitch for the Mets again. I know that there are logical reasons for keeping him but I don't care.

[metirish]

He'll be resigned , Alderson made some interesting comments the other night about how many innings the starters gave the club this year, he was happy with that but remarked that they need to work on getting the quality to go along with the quantity.

[Benjamin Grimm]

My hunch (and not a strong one) is that he'll be gone. (I don't know by what means.) I think they'll find someone to replace him at a lower price.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: He's had enough good years to justify his 2012 salary. Keeping him or trading him depends on other moves the Mets make. They would need to add another starter before he would be expendable. If the Mets make the right bullpen upgrades, they could live with a rotation of Santana, Dickey, Niese, Pelfrey, and Gee.

You could actually make the case that he's the exact same pitcher he's always been and has shown little growth or regression. And that it's pretty reasonable to expect somewhere between 2010 and 2011 in terms of numbers. The only thing that's really gotten worse is his GB% which is dropped each year. His FB/HR rate is up this year, which may or may not be correlated to the GB% (his GB% wasn't graet last year either, and he didn't give up many home runs) You could certainly make the case that if he could work on the sinker more, throw it more, get mroe GB, that you'd reasonably expect less HRs and less damaging numbers.

[Guest attgig]

i voted that he gets traded away, but i'm pretty sure he'll be in the rotation next year and prove us all pelfrey haters wrong... i still don't want any piece of him when he's out of arb...

[TransMonk]

Ultimately, I think a choice will be made between Capuano and Pelfrey. I'd take Cappy. But, my hunch is that Pelfrey will be in the Mets rotation for one more year.

[MFS62]

IMO what happens to Pelfrey in the off season depends largely on what Sandy can do to improve the pitching. That's a nice way of saying that I would trade his ass in a heartbeat.

I wish Chris Young a very speedy recovery.

Later

[G-Fafif]

Better chance of being around come April than Santorum in 2012.

But maybe not as good as those of Perry in 2012.

[Gwreck]

TransMonk wrote: Ultimately, I think a choice will be made between Capuano and Pelfrey. I'd take Cappy. But, my hunch is that Pelfrey will be in the Mets rotation for one more year.

Their WARs are almost identical (1.6 Capuano, 1.7 Pelfrey) but given that Capuano is likely to get a 2-year deal on the open market (or more) I think the responsible move is to keep Pelfrey. I don't love the move but there aren't exactly a lot of better options for those 200 innings.

I guess we could dump Pelfrey and sign CJ Wilson but the Mets presumably don't have the bucks for that.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Six Millans over one year for Pelf versus eight over two for Capuano? Is that about how we're framing the decision?

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: Six Millans over one year for Pelf versus eight over two for Capuano? Is that about how we're framing the decision?

Pelf might take the two for 8ish. It's an interesting thought. Pelfrey could easily pitch slightly better, and will command in abitration a slight raise again in 2013. You hope minor league options step up by then, but it seems foolish to bank on it. If he's making 4-5 in 2013, instead of looking at 7-8, he'd probably be pretty tradeable if the Mets have Meija/Cohoon/Harvey/etc types looking to push him out.

[smg58]

I was disappointed by Capuano, who wasn't any better than Pelfrey this year, and I think Pelfrey is a better bet to improve (though not a sure thing by a long shot). Given what we'll have at AAA in 2012 and the fact that both pitchers are capable of losing value rather than gaining it next year, I'd have a hard time justifying multiple guaranteed years to either.

[Guest Edgy DC]

They're all capable of losing value rather than gaining it. All capable of getting worse or better. The question remains what those likelihoods are, how much they cost, and how they compare to the alternatives.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Mets draft Pelfrey. One of the oldest threads in our archives.

Niese and Parnell content also.

[TransMonk]

I was definitely more disappointed in Pelfrey's 2011 campaign than Capuano's. He was the opening day starter for criminey.

In corporate speak, I would give Capuano a Meets Expectations and Pelfrey a Needs improvement for 2011. Neither would get a raise (which, I guess would be comparable to a multi-year deal).

I'm hoping the point will be moot in 2013 when all of the young studs are hopefully percolating out of the farm system.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Talk about a receding arc. Pelf might've been the most coveted pitcher coming out of his class. He dropped down to the Mets' slot because, as a Scott Boras client, he scared away every team picking ahead of the Mets that might've otherwise had an interest.

The scouts drooled about Pelf's ceiling, all based on his BMOC 97+ MPH fastball coupled with a devastating heavy sinker.

He never threw 97+ in a Mets uniform. Or 97 without the +. And now, his sinker stopped sinking.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

What struck me about the reports were those that said Pelfrey had the heart of a lion, fortitude and maturity etc.

We know now he's a bit of a kitten given to wishywashiness NTTAWWT

[Fman99]

Shoot him into fucking outer space. Enough Pelf.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mets draft Pelfrey. One of the oldest threads in our archives. Niese and Parnell content also.

Mets drafted Josh Thole and Pedro Beato that year too.

From that thread, here's what jumped out at me:

="Johnny Dickshot Jun 07 2005 11]

Pedro Beato

Yes!

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

We just discussed this draft in a recent thread: http://www.cranepoolforum.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=16783&hilit=draft

I think the point was, if every draft produced 3-5 regulars in 4 years, you'd probably have a pretty good team.

[ashie62]

If Pelfrey is going to get about 7 million in arbitration I would non tender him and try and find a couple of Capuano's and spend the rest towards an ace.

[bmfc1]

Terry Collins said he may have put too much of a burden on Pelfrey by naming him the Opening Day starter. Pelfrey finished with the highest ERA by a Mets Opening Day starter since Pete Harnisch in 1997 at 7.03 ERA, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. "I'll take full responsibility if I put the heavy load on his shoulders by naming him the Opening Day starter," Collins said.

What a crock. Collins is politely making excuses for him but yesterday should have been his last appearance in a Mets uniform. Pelfrey doesn't have the brains and the stones to be a successful major league pitcher.

[metirish]

bmfc1 wrote: Terry Collins said he may have put too much of a burden on Pelfrey by naming him the Opening Day starter. Pelfrey finished with the highest ERA by a Mets Opening Day starter since Pete Harnisch in 1997 at 7.03 ERA, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. "I'll take full responsibility if I put the heavy load on his shoulders by naming him the Opening Day starter," Collins said. What a crock. Collins is politely making excuses for him but yesterday should have been his last appearance in a Mets uniform. Pelfrey doesn't have the brains and the stones to be a successful major league pitcher.

yeah really, opening day starter means shite after that start , what a load of bollox.

[Guest Edgy DC]

After going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in 193 and 2/3 innings, with a cavernous home park, is there any reason to necessarily think he'd get seven million?

I would have guessed he was among the league leaders in homers allowed, but he was merely tied for 17th with 21. Bronson Arroyo (who starts for the Reds Tuesday) gave up 44!

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: After going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in 193 and 2/3 innings, with a cavernous home park, is there any reason to necessarily think he'd get seven million? I would have guessed he was among the league leaders in homers allowed, but he was merely tied for 17th with 21. Bronson Arroyo (who starts for the Reds Tuesday) gave up 44!

bah, forum ate my reply.

He agreed to a 3.925 contract last year. Given the year he's had it'd be hard to imagine he wouldn't agree to that again this year, unless someone out there gives big money to a similar type pitcher.

I don't think even Boras is going to stick to his guns, claim the Mets made Pelfrey the Ace and he should be paid like Tim Lincecum.

[Guest Edgy DC]

So, I imagine a smart Mets team wouldn't make a decision until some numbers are exchanged.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Right. There's no need to cut Pelfrey loose prematurely. If you can retain him at an acceptable price, you might as well keep him in the mix.

If he does go to arbitration, and wins more money than the Mets want to spend, they're not obligated to pay it, are they? If I understand correctly, they can release him before spring training and not be on the hook at all, or perhaps for a small portion of the contract.