Who's in Centerfield (2012)?

[TransMonk]

With the losses over the weekend (both the games and otherwise), it looks as if we are using the rest of this year to look towards next year.

Is Angel the answer in center for another year? His offense has regressed after a nice 2010 (like a few here said it would). I'm of the opinion that if he's going to hit the way he has, then he should be playing much better defense...but he's not.

Should a more dedicated amount of playing time go towards youngsters like Pridie and Nieuwenhuis? Do we stay the course with Pagan? Do we make a move from outside the organization?

[smg58]

I'm perplexed by Pagan. It's possible he's playing through a nagging injury. Keep in mind that he had been excellent for us for two seasons, not just one, so this season could turn out to be the aberrant one. I'm sure Niewenhuis will get the opportunity to win a job next year, but I'm not ready to hand him Pagan's just yet.

[Vic Sage]

i wasn't high on Pagan in the first place (i had some exchanges to that effect with Ceetar, if i recall), and my opinion obviously hasn't changed much. he started his career with a few thousand minor league plate appearances that generated a .700+ OPS, then 3 crappy partial seasons for Cubs and Mets, and then had a great HALF season with NY in `09, which earned him his first full-time gig last year, in which he was good, not great.

There were those who saw the `09 half season as his likely future level of production, but he's a very inconsistent ballplayer... streaky, without great instincts, doesn't hit much against LHPs, fast but error-prone baserunner, 2:1 K/BB rate keeping down his OB% and not quite enough pop to justify it. I just never saw him as a great everyday ballplayer... sure, useful as a 4th OFer / platoon guy, but expecting more didn't seem wise to me. And he's played hurt this year (not the first time for that either), so he's probably somewhere between this and last year. Basically a 100 OPS+ guy. Nice, useful, good depth... but a starting CFer on a playoff-bound team? No, i don't think so, and at age 30, i don't see him changing his stripes radically going forward.

[ashie62]

Pagan is paid for and entreched.

[TransMonk]

Ashie62 wrote: Pagan is paid for and entreched.

His contract is up at the end of the season.

[smg58]

I believe he has one more year of arbitration left. He could conceivably be non-tendered if Alderson and Collins have gone sour on him, but I'd be surprised if it came to that.

[Ceetar]

he's got a 105 Mets OPS. He's fast, he's got good range. (wish he could cut down on some of these sillier errors) .713 OPS since returning from the DL with a lowish .289 BABIP. (.318 for his Mets career) Figure luck puts him back towards .750 and he had a bad April.

Anyway, I imagine he'll be teh starter with Niuwenhuis nipping at his tail if need be.

[TransMonk]

smg58 wrote: I believe he has one more year of arbitration left.

Oh, yeah.

Ceetar wrote: ...wish he could cut down on some of these sillier errors...

I can handle a centerfielder who hits as lean as he has this year, but he's gotta play a lot better defensively.

[MFS62]

Pagan is Pridie, with more major league at bats.
I'd rather Pridie be given those at bats going forward.
At least he might not do dumb things in the field and on the bases.
And if he does them, he might not do them again.
Not to say either of them is an every day major league centerfielder.
But until one can be acquired or developed from within, why not Pridie?

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

MFS62 wrote: Pagan is Pridie, with more major league at bats.

I don't believe this for a second.

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: MFS62 wrote: Pagan is Pridie, with more major league at bats. I don't believe this for a second.

Who is to say that if Pridie had been in the majors as long as Pagan has, that he would or wouldn't have developed into the hitter that Pagan has?
Bill James has said that it takes at least 500 major league at bats to see what kind of player you have. Pridie has fewer than 150.

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

MFS62 wrote: MFS62 wrote: Pagan is Pridie, with more major league at bats. I don't believe this for a second. Who is to say that if Pridie had been in the majors as long as Pagan has, that he would or wouldn't have developed into the hitter that Pagan has? Bill James has said that it takes at least 500 major league at bats to see what kind of player you have. Pridie has fewer than 150. Later

Then why are you so certain "Pridie is Pagan"?

[Guest Edgy DC]

MFS62 wrote: Edgy DC wrote: Bill James has said that it takes at least 500 major league at bats to see what kind of player you have. Pridie has fewer than 150.

I'd like to read where he asserts this and the context in which it appears, but I'm certain he has not said that all other information --- minor league performance, apparent ability --- should be discarded until those 500 at-bats have been secured.

Moreover, Angel Pagan is having a poor year, but last year he was a Gold Glove-quality performer in center, and any fallback from that level has to be taken with perspective.

Pridie and Pagan should be compared as far as both having great beards. I'm not going beyond that.

[MFS62]

I'd prefer that neither of them have a starting role in CF on the 2012 Mets. I hope the Mets can upgrade at the position. But a lot of players will be auditioning for spots on next year's club. Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. We've seen Pagan make the same mistakes in the field and on the bases over and over. It may not be insanity, but he sure is "baseball dumb". So let's give Pridie (or someone else) a chance. My position is more anti-Pagan than it is pro-Pridie.
That's all.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

MFS62 wrote: Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

Will you please stop using fabricated quotes?

[MFS62]

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/albert_einstein_4.html

Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

[Guest Edgy DC]

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/albert_einstein_4.html Later

Please give me a break. When did Einstein become the successor to Franklin, Twain, and Will Rogers as the pithy American backwoods purveyor of folk wisdom that we can attribute any nonsense to?

Despite the fact that he was theoretical physicist and most of thoughts he asserted would bend our minds just to conceive, he became a social activist in his later years and deigned to speak in language the layperson could understand, but he was no fool and he said no such thing. It's a cute thing for a tee shirt or a bumper sticker, but it has nothing to do with him, and I'd add is a highly debatable point in itself.

[Lefty Specialist]

I don't need Einstein to tell me that the Pridies of the world are a dime a dozen. He's not Angel Pagan as much as he's Jeff Duncan, a guy who got a decent start to his career but gradually was revealed to be nothing particularly special.

[ashie62]

They both suck..but Pagan is more handsome than Jason "Deliverance" Pridie.

[ashie62]

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/a/albert_einstein_4.html Later Please give me a break. When did Einstein become the successor to Franklin, Twain, and Will Rogers as the pithy American backwoods purveyor of folk wisdom that we can attribute any nonsense to? Despite the fact that he was theoretical physicist and most of thoughts he asserted would bend our minds just to conceive, he became a social activist in his later years and deigned to speak in language the layperson could understand, but he was no fool and he said no such thing. It's a cute thing for a tee shirt or a bumper sticker, but it has nothing to do with him, and I'd add is a highly debatable point in itself.

You may be unhappy only because you didn't think of it first.

Tee shirt sales and all, ya know..

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

I think both Pagan and Pridie are placeholders until something better comes along. They're not killing us. There are bigger problems. You can carry either of them there if your left fielder doesn't suck and your slugging first and second basemen aren't on the DL. You don't build around either of these guys, and you jettison them when you can finally upgrade.

[Guest Edgy DC]

But you don't jettison them before free agency dollars make them prohibitive --- not while you have higher priorities to take care of. And you do.

[seawolf17]

Pagan, like Murphy, might have some value on the market. Not as much as he would have had last offseason, but still...

[Guest attgig]

Pagan stays in CF. his defense was horrible this year, but he's quick enough to make up for his lack of instincts. I think he stays as CF next year. If Kirk had played all year, got a sept call up and played well, there may have been a viable chance that he takes over, but with the injury, I don't see that happening.

Pagan stays in CF opening day. if kirk starts tearing itup, pagan gets moved, kirk takes over. if kirk ends up not doing so well, we find someone (i'd say maybe Bourn) to be cf 2013.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Sheesh, that's a real S&P downgrade. I don't love his defense this year --- he plays too deep, and still comes in without confindence --- but he's a far cry from horrible.

Last year, on the other hand, he looked excellent.

[Vic Sage]

metsguyinmichigan wrote: I think both Pagan and Pridie are placeholders until something better comes along. They're not killing us. There are bigger problems. You can carry either of them there if your left fielder doesn't suck and your slugging first and second basemen aren't on the DL. You don't build around either of these guys, and you jettison them when you can finally upgrade.

this.

[smg58]

The defensive metrics strongly disagree about Pagan's performance over the past two seasons. UZR has him at +15 runs in center last year and -3 this year, while the Fielding Bible has him at +7 and +4. Naturally, they both average out to about the same.

[Guest attgig]

smg58 wrote: The defensive metrics strongly disagree about Pagan's performance over the past two seasons. UZR has him at +15 runs in center last year and -3 this year, while the Fielding Bible has him at +7 and +4. Naturally, they both average out to about the same.

it's clear he was far superior last year than this year...

[Frayed Knot]

Also, before we get too anxious to simply hand the job to Nieuwenhuis, his ability to handle CF at the major league level has been questioned by prospect watchers. One of the reasons he's been tabbed as a good though not top-notch prospect all along has been the doubt some have about whether his bat will play as a corner guy or whether he'll wind up as some sort of "tweener" with a CF's bat but a corner OF's glove.