Expectations of Eleven: Carlos Beltran

[Edgy MD]

Now we start biting into the main course, as Expectations for Eleven looks at the formerrly highest paid of Mets. Until that Santana guy came along.


Pos: OF
Born: 4/24/77 in Maniti, Puerto Rico
Acquired: Signed a seven-year, $119 million contract in January of 2005.
2010 Stats:

G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	BB-R WAR	FG WAR
64	255	220	21	56	11	3	7	27	3	1	30	39	.255	.341	.427	.768	109	94	4	1	0	4	5	1.5	0.9

Last Word: Carlos, seen here whilst giving 20,000 pounds of food to hungry New Yorkers this Christmastime, has hinted that he's willing to move to right field though nobody has garnered the courage to ask him. Talk is of the trading block and he's said to heard nothing of that either. He likes how his knee fieels but is realistic about the reality that it might night feel so good tomorrow.

What do you expect of Carlos Beltran in 2011?

[Ceetar]

I expect a good year out of him. It's a 'contract year' he's gotta be itching to play a full season. He's in a pretty good lineup. His knee is healthier than it was last year and he'd started to hit the ball around. He's grown used to the brace, where it probably feels a little more natural to be wearing it. (He routinely wore a knee brace anyway didn't he? so it can't be _that_ bad) I'm hoping the new manager actively works with him, and they work in the rest where needed. 140-145 games.

I think he'll hit over .300, with around a .360 OBP. 34 HR, 120 RBI, 12 SB while playing his typical great CF.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think he'll end up in center field instead of right. By mid July, he'll have 12 to 15 homers and he'll be hitting around .280, and he'll be traded for three young players, one of whom will be a top-rated prospect.

[TransMonk]

His contract year will rival 2006 as his best in New York. He won't hit 40 HRs, but he'll bat better than .275. Reyes, Beltran, Bay and Wright in the same lineup will give other teams more nightmares than expected and keep us in more games than expected...even against the Phillies.

I'll be sad to see him traded in July, but it will be a good thing for the Mets in the long run.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: I expect a good year out of him. It's a 'contract year' he's gotta be itching to play a full season. He's in a pretty good lineup. His knee is healthier than it was last year and he'd started to hit the ball around. He's grown used to the brace, where it probably feels a little more natural to be wearing it. (He routinely wore a knee brace anyway didn't he? so it can't be _that_ bad) I'm hoping the new manager actively works with him, and they work in the rest where needed. 140-145 games. I think he'll hit over .300, with around a .360 OBP. 34 HR, 120 RBI, 12 SB while playing his typical great CF.

That is one optimistic Mets fan.

TransMonk wrote: His contract year will rival 2006 as his best in New York. He won't hit 40 HRs, but he'll bat better than .275. Reyes, Beltran, Bay and Wright in the same lineup will give other teams more nightmares than expected and keep us in more games than expected...even against the Phillies. I'll be sad to see him traded in July, but it will be a good thing for the Mets in the long run.

If all those guys are producing and we're still dealing Beltran at the deadline, I shudder to think how bad our pitching must look in your head.

[TransMonk]

Edgy DC wrote: If all those guys are producing and we're still dealing Beltran at the deadline, I shudder to think how bad our pitching must look in your head.

I'd like to be optimistic, but without Santana it just won't be enough.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I want to be optimistic, too. Plus, there's a little sartorial self-interest involved (he's a prominent member of the LWFS jersey family, and I'd rather not have to shunt those to the back of the closet with Mikey until he makes the Met HoF).

But, yeah, anything above a 20-25 HR-, 15 steal- and a .280*/.360*/.470 triple-slash**-projection would seem to be approaching fantasyland borders. I think those are attainable, and I think he puts up about half of them wearing the uniform of Queens.

*Bump up or down 10 points as BABIP dictates.
**Still fun!

[G-Fafif]

The spirit will be willing, the body might come along, the steals probably won't reach double-digits.

[Vic Sage]

.280/20hr - will stay in CF til traded in July.

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I want to be optimistic, too. Plus, there's a little sartorial self-interest involved (he's a prominent member of the LWFS jersey family, and I'd rather not have to shunt those to the back of the closet with Mikey until he makes the Met HoF). But, yeah, anything above a 20-25 HR-, 15 steal- and a .280*/.360*/.470 triple-slash**-projection would seem to be approaching fantasyland borders. I think those are attainable, and I think he puts up about half of them wearing the uniform of Queens. *Bump up or down 10 points as BABIP dictates. **Still fun!

I'm in the minority on this one, but I like my Mets jerseys even more so after the player I'm wearing leaves the Mets.

I think Beltran'll be glad to get the hell away from this stupid furshlugginer stadium the Wilpons signed off on. I know that I would if I had 30+ HR power in a neutral stadium. His injuries might be detracting from talk that he's another CF casualty. Unless it's the injuries. And the not so significant sample size.

[G-Fafif]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I think Beltran'll be glad to get the hell away from this stupid furshlugginer stadium the Wilpons signed off on.

The Lighter Side of Carlos Beltran by Dave Berg.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Veeblefetzer!

[Gwreck]

It's not just the new park. Beltran had a pronounced home/road split in homers when he played in Shea, too: 46 Home and 71 Road from 05-08.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Gwreck wrote: It's not just the new park. Beltran had a pronounced home/road split in homers when he played in Shea, too: 46 Home and 71 Road from 05-08.

One can reasonably assume that if CF existed five years ago, Beltran's 2005-08 home road splits for HR's would be skewed even more. Shea has nothing to do with this. Your data is consistent with what was common knowledge: that Shea was not a HR hitter's park.

Neither is CF.

Edited January 5, 2011 by Guest

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

His knees are shot, he's probably off the juice, and I don't have any fantasies of his being healthy, as productive as he used to be, or worth much on the trade market.

[batmagadanleadoff]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: His knees are shot, he's probably off the juice, and I don't have any fantasies of his being healthy, as productive as he used to be, or worth much on the trade market.

That, too.

[Guest attgig]

he'll be a starting outfielder for the all star game.

he'll hit just south of .300, with 15 home runs, and 58 rbi's. He'll have about 3 steals/3cs, while playing good, but not great CF - losing the speed he once had, but taking great routes to the balls to make up for it.

Come trading deadline, we'll see him get traded along with Krod to anyone who'll give us a top middle infield prospect.

the rest of his season numbers will be moot at that point, but he'll get into the post season, and once again hit 8 homeruns in the LCS leading to another huge payday.

[Gwreck]

Shea has nothing to do with this. Your data is consistent with what was common knowledge: that Shea was not a HR hitter's park.

Yeah, it was more of a counterpoint to your gratuitous shot at the Wilpons and the idea that he's a "Citi Field" casualty (emphasis added).

[batmagadanleadoff]

What was so gratuitous about my Wilpons remark? Joan Payson didn't design CF.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"Extraneous" might be more to the quick.

With all due respect, it's a thread about what we think will happen for Beltran in the coming season, not "How Much Sense Does a Robinson Rotunda Make," Part III.

That said... god DAMN, do I want to see Beltran being all ultrastellar again, if only for another half-season.

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: "Extraneous" might be more to the quick. With all due respect, it's a thread about what we think will happen for Beltran in the coming season, not "How Much Sense Does a Robinson Rotunda Make," Part III. That said... god DAMN, do I want to see Beltran being all ultrastellar again, if only for another half-season.

I think Beltran's HR totals will be 27% less than what he would hit in an alternate universe where everything is as is except that the Mets play their home games at Shea Stadium.

And the JR Rotunda didn't even cross my mind when I calculated my furshlugginer factor for ecch CF.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: And the JR Rotunda didn't even cross my mind when I calculated my furshlugginer factor for ecch CF.

You didn't take Misplaced Dodger Loyalty Gravitational Displacement into account? Bullspit.

[batmagadanleadoff]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: And the JR Rotunda didn't even cross my mind when I calculated my furshlugginer factor for ecch CF. You didn't take Misplaced Dodger Loyalty Gravitational Displacement into account? Bullspit.

I can riff on the JR Rotunda but in this thread, I limited my consideration of CF strictly to its moronic playing dimensions. Did you know that it was the Wilpons who ultimately signed off on the CF field dimensions?

[Edgy MD]

.266 --- 24 HR --- 89 RBI --- 9 SB --- RF, primarily.

[Centerfield]

How much of a wild card is Beltran? He could be injured and miss the whole season, he could play the whole season and hit .260 with single-digit HR's, or he could win the NL MVP. I guess this is true of all ballplayers, but if Beltran did any of these it would only be mildly surprising.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, he seems like the big key to this season. If all goes right with him, they need only one or two other breaks to be in Schaefer City. If all goes wrong, they need only one or two other breaks to be deep in last. And it's hard to guage what is most likely.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm hoping for the best from Beltran. The little boy Mets fan inside of me tells me that Carlos could belt 40 HR's in 2011 just because he did that before.

But if baseball records were actuarial tables, I'd say that Beltran's days of putting up all-star numbers are over and done with.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Angels Weren�t Positive Carlos Beltran Could Play Center Field, Either

Is Carlos Beltran still a center fielder? That's a question the Mets will try and find out during spring training. Even Terry Collins has said that Beltran will have to prove he can still play the position, and that he'll be given the chance to play there during the Grapefruit League schedule to give the team a chance to evaluate his mobility. Of course, part of the reason Beltran's position is unclear is that Angel Pagan is poised to take the center field job, shifting Beltran to right. Still, the question of whether Beltran, a three-time Gold Glove winner, can still play in center is a real one. It's also a concern shared by at least one potential trade partner � or, more accurately, a former potential trade partner, as Joel Sherman reports today that the Mets and Angels had discussions about Beltran. Now, it's possible that these discussions weren't very serious � or that a reasonable trade simply couldn't be worked out. But, according to Sherman, the Angels (a team that's said they were willing to increase their payroll to add offense) ultimately decided that Vernon Wells � even with the huge financial commitment associated with employing Wells for the next four years � was a better move. Their reasons, according to Sherman? Just as you'd expect: concerns over Beltran's health, and, yes, doubts whether he can still play center field.

http://nymag.com/daily/sports/2011/02/the_angels_werent_positive_car.html

[Gwreck]

Conspicuously absent from that article: that Vernon Wells is also a well-below-average centerfielder. I suppose his CF expiration date may be a year or two past Carlos' but it's not a huge difference.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The Angels also thought Torii Hunter was an elite centerfielder (and paid him as such)... and they traded for Vernon Wells without getting money kicked back their way, so I'm not so sure their valuation system is one I'd trust.