The Lee signing

[metirish]

Edgy DC wrote: To every Yankee fan who snarktastically responded to getting knocked out of the playoffs by Lee's Rangers saying, "Don't over-pitch him too much --- we'll need him to report to spring training fresh and healthy," this is bad for them. Therefore, it's good for America. And what's good for America is good for the Mets. Trust me here. And, by the way, this is Derek Jeter's fault. Pass it on.

Filip Bondy among them, did you save those emails LWFS ?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Now, what we need is ESPN to report this along with footage of Cashman dressed as an elf and rappeling down a wall.

[smg58]

The deal guarantees $120M at last report, with the sixth year being a $27.5M vesting option or a staggering $12.5M buyout.

Does this get Amaro off the hook for the horrible mistake in dealing Lee in the first place? After everything else he's since done, how can he possibly argue that $9M was too much to pay for the guy last year?

That being said, he's managed to talk the Blue Jays into eating a significant portion of Halladay's salary last year, Halladay into taking three years at $20M per when he'd have gotten bigger offers than Lee had he waited, the Astros into eating large portions of Oswalt's contract, and Lee into passing up not one but two larger offers from playoff teams. Jedi mind tricks? Blackmail? How come Ryan Howard's agent appears to be smarter than everybody else?

[Farmer Ted]

Good article from Adam Kilgore which, ironically, he posted prolly minutes before the Lee-Phils deals was announced.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2010/12/cliff_lee_is_going_to_sign_a_b.html

[Frayed Knot]

Does this get Amaro off the hook for the horrible mistake in dealing Lee in the first place? After everything else he's since done, how can he possibly argue that $9M was too much to pay for the guy last year?

Yeah, that's the weird part - well, that and the fact that Lee passed up two (rumored to be) clearly superior offers to take this one. Wonder how the union is going to react to this one? Maybe they're giving his agent a good working over in the sound-proof basement at union HQ as we speak.

Either way, be interesting to hear how Lee's line of reasoning goes. Listened to ten seconds of FAN this morning which featured Carton screaming about how Lee is "too afraid to come to New York". Nothing like dopes using personal decisions to try and make themselves feel tough. Yeah Craig, maybe if you try hard enough you can convince yourself that he skipped the Big Apple on account of he didn't think he was man enough to handle an interview with you.


Philly is clearly in a 'go for it NOW!!!!' mode despite the loss of Werth.
Their 'Big Three' imported hurlers turn 33 (Oswalt), 34 (Halladay), and 33 (Lee) next season - and their position players are all over 30 as well with the exception of Werth's likely replacement Domonic Brown.
Oswalt can walk after 2011 (mutual option) as can Lidge (option). Hamels is free the year after that.
On the field: Rollins & Ibanez are FA after this year; Polanco & Victorino after 2012.
Of their biggest guns, only Utley (32 - and signed thru 2013) and Howard (31 - thru 2017) are around for a while.

[Centerfield]

I appreciate the efforts to find a silver lining here, and maybe in a few years, this will bite the Phils in the ass, but for the next two or three years, this sucks royally for the Mets.

Thank goodness for the Wild Card.

[Willets Point]

Edgy DC wrote: Now, what we need is ESPN to report this along with footage of Cashman dressed as an elf and rappeling down a wall.

Not just any wall, but the tallest (only) skyscraper in Stamford!

[Guest attgig]

WHIPPED!

Apparently incident with Lee's wife had last fall with Yankees fans wasn't forgotten. Besides that, she's not fond of NY. She LOVES Philly.

A good source tells me that Cliff Lee''s wife is the main reason he didn't sign with Yankees. She wanted NO PART of New York, i was told.

[MFS62]

I don't get it - Mrs Lee didn't like the behavior of Yankee fans, then her hubby signed with the PHILLIES???.
I can't wait for him to lose a home game.
She'll need both an umbrella and body armour.

Later

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Edgy DC wrote: And, by the way, this is Derek Jeter's fault. Pass it on.

Of COURSE it's Jeter's fault! What right-thinking star pitcher wants to look over his shoulder and see a freaking tree stump with a glove manning the spot where 70 percent of ground balls are hit?

[seawolf17]

Edgy DC wrote: Oh, and do the world a favor. When the Phillies come to town, treat Ms. Lee like a princess.

We would, but the problem is, Mets fans don't buy tickets to see our own team, and as such, the park will be full of Phillies fans busing themselves up for the game and Yankee fans who can't afford to pay MFY Stadium III prices.

Edgy DC wrote: And, by the way, this is Derek Jeter's fault. Pass it on. Of COURSE it's Jeter's fault! What right-thinking star pitcher wants to look over his shoulder and see a freaking tree stump with a glove manning the spot where 70 percent of ground balls are hit?

I know that's a joke, but you know...

Okay ... here's your silver lining: The five man rotation of Gooden, Cone, Viola, Fernandez and Darling never went to the post-season. Happy, now?

Yeah, because those teams not making the postseason made me really happy. Thanks for the memories.

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

OFF THE LEDGE YANKEE FANS!

The team just signed Russell Martin! Who needs Cliff Lee!

[bmfc1]

I thought that this was a good look at the MFPs for '11 and beyond:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/some-notes-on-the-mystery-team/

[metirish]

bmfc1 wrote: I thought that this was a good look at the MFPs for '11 and beyond: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/some-notes-on-the-mystery-team/

wow

When all is said and done, Opening Day payroll should settle in around $168 million.

[Vic Sage]

Anybody who doesn't see this as a bad thing for the Mets for the next two seasons is being willfully optimistic...NTTAWWT, but its not in my nature.

The fact that it's also bad for the Yanks and may one day be bad for the MFPs does nothing to cheer me... well, it does a little to cheer me, but not enough to overcome the grim reality of trying to match up against HALLADAY-LEE-OSWALT-HAMELS with SANTANA (DL)- PELFREY(OCD)- DICKEY (RA)-NEISE (FEH) for the next season or 2.

[bmfc1]

"SANTANA (DL)- PELFREY(OCD)- DICKEY (RA)-NEISE (FEH)"

VS, that was well done.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: Anybody who doesn't see this as a bad thing for the Mets for the next two seasons is being willfully optimistic...NTTAWWT, but its not in my nature. The fact that it's also bad for the Yanks and may one day be bad for the MFPs does nothing to cheer me... well, it does a little to cheer me, but not enough to overcome the grim reality of trying to match up against HALLADAY-LEE-OSWALT-HAMELS with SANTANA (DL)- PELFREY(OCD)- DICKEY (RA)-NEISE (FEH) for the next season or 2.

You never know what's going to happen. Niese was a rookie, but looked really good. You could say Dickey had a better year than oswalt hamels or lee last year. We need more pitchers, but what we have isn't bad.

[smg58]

If I thought the Mets were one good pickup from catching up with the Phillies before yesterday, I'd feel much worse about it. As for 2012 and beyond, I'll worry about it when I get there.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Red herrings and bruised feelings aside, Lee's outperformed Santana in each of the past three regular seasons, really:

2008: Lee (7.3 B-R WAR/7.2 Fangraphs WAR) over Santana (6.4/4.8)
2009: Lee (5.0/6.6) over Santana (3.6/2.7)
2010: Lee (4.3*/7.1) over Santana (4.4/3.5)

(Much stronger peripherals-- K/BB rate, dependability on strand rate/low HR rate, etc.-- produce the Fangraphs-sized gaps.)

I would probably rather have Lee for the next couple of years, if only because of projected durability. (Although it should be noted that, for all of the injury issues Santana's faced over the last two seasons, he's only started five fewer games over that time than the "workhorse" Lee.)

That said, they've got him for at least five, while Santana's only here for three guaranteed.



*Something seems wonky here... I haven't quite sussed out what.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I would also.

That 7.1 last year sure seems to come out of left field, though, doesn't it? Are they somehow including his post-season performances and amplifying them for the higher stakes? That would be interesting, but then he'd look even better in 2009.

[Theoldmole]

My favorite article was Andy Martino in the News saying Lee might regret not taking the extra money from the Yankees. I guess $100 million doesn't go as far as it used to.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Split to the red light.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Edgy DC wrote: That 7.1 last year sure seems to come out of left field, though, doesn't it? Are they somehow including his post-season performances and amplifying them for the higher stakes?

Doesn't look like it. It looks like his fWAR is based on 212 1/3 innings, which is his regular season total. Their glossary entry says nothing about the postseason and if you click the "show postseason" link on the player's page, it lists those stats separately.

[ashie62]

metirish wrote: Edgy DC wrote: To every Yankee fan who snarktastically responded to getting knocked out of the playoffs by Lee's Rangers saying, "Don't over-pitch him too much --- we'll need him to report to spring training fresh and healthy," this is bad for them. Therefore, it's good for America. And what's good for America is good for the Mets. Trust me here. And, by the way, this is Derek Jeter's fault. Pass it on. Filip Bondy among them, did you save those emails LWFS ?

I did

[Guest Edgy DC]

Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: Edgy DC wrote: That 7.1 last year sure seems to come out of left field, though, doesn't it? Are they somehow including his post-season performances and amplifying them for the higher stakes? Doesn't look like it. It looks like his fWAR is based on 212 1/3 innings, which is his regular season total. Their glossary entry says nothing about the postseason and if you click the "show postseason" link on the player's page, it lists those stats separately.

Well that suggests I'm selling him short on last year. He did have a gorgeous first half with the Mariners, before coming back toward earth, if not to it, with the Rangers.

But is his 212 1/3-inning-3.18-ERA season of 2010 really only 1.4% less excellent than his 223 1/3-2.54-ERA season of 2008? I guess I'm failing to properly consider park factors and/or being blinded by the very different won-loss records, but it still seems to be challenging. His walk and strikeout rates are improving but his homer rate is going up (as one might expect).

At any rate, BB-R.com isn''t buying it all.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

That walk/strikeout rate was, like, Pedro-in-his-prime good during the first half of last year. If only by comparison with 2008, 7.1 seems a little high... but the B-R WAR of 4.3 seems way off.

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: That walk/strikeout rate was, like, Pedro-in-his-prime good during the first half of last year. If only by comparison with 2008, 7.1 seems a little high... but the B-R WAR of 4.3 seems way off.

Maybe WAR is not all that its' cracked up to be.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

It's not perfect by any means. But knowing THAT doesn't really help us with getting closer to what actually happened last year, performance-wise. Knowing WHY is much more useful.

[ashie62]

Lee got the going rate for the "Top Dog" available pitcher. The stats have little to do with his salary if Lee is perceived to be the best out there.

Beyond that, Lee didn't like the heat in TX and the cretins in the Bleachers.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Well, either Baseball Reference is way wrong or Fangraphs is way wrong or, most likely, they're both a little wrong, but since Fangraphs has Lee's last three combined years ranked second in baseball and BBR has them 1st, 16th and 23rd for 2008, 9 and 10 (dunno what to click to add em up, cuz I'm a moe-ron), with some rotating cast members ahead of him over those years, I think it's fair to say he has been one of the very best in baseball over that span.