2011 Roster

[ashie62]

MFS62 wrote: The rainout yesterday leaves the Mets without a starter on Saturday. Pelfrey today and Sunday Neise and Dickey for the Wednesday doubleheader Gee and Misch on Thursday and Friday Ollie on Saturday ? It would be very interesting. Later

I am available. Beyond that can Duda pitch?

[ashie62]

Gwreck wrote: Really? Bay, Beltran, Wright and Reyes are all very good-to-excellent players. If healthy and playing (reasonably) well, the Mets should be ok.

I would really, really, like to believe that.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Thanks for restoring the thread to threadness.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Ashie62 wrote: Gwreck wrote: Really? Bay, Beltran, Wright and Reyes are all very good-to-excellent players. If healthy and playing (reasonably) well, the Mets should be ok. I would really, really, like to believe that.

Same.

Even if they do play up to their utmost potential, though... without above-average support (Davis improving, Pagan and Dickey supplying at least what they did this year, getting average-to-good performances out of 3/4 of the other rotation-dwellers, a deep and resilient and cheapish bench), that's a team that's good enough to finish second to a weaker Phils team than they've got now.

And, as Lefty the new guy said, it's a big "if."

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, well I'm in. All the way in.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We were counting on the ifs for 2010, and that didn't work out.

Not to say that 2011 can't be different. There may be reason to be hopeful, but at this point there seems to be little reason to be optimistic. (But let's see what the offseason brings...)

[Lefty Specialist]

I'm pessimistic if that's the roster. I know it won't be.

But if you're missing Johan for at least half the year, things get pretty scary. In 2011, Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Gee, '?' is at least as risky as Santana, Pelfrey, Perez, Maine, Niese was at the beginning of this year. Yes, they got unexpected contributions from Dickey and Takahashi, but those kind of things aren't a given.

Someone else made the point about the Phils. Their injuries this year were at least as significant as those suffered by the Mets, but while they kept on trucking, the Mets capsized. And even healthy, the Mets have difficulty with things like hitting with men in scoring position or with the bases loaded.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The problem isn't having "if"s. The problem is, jointly, having "if"s on which you absolutely must rely and the distance between the best-case "if" and the bottom-floor of "if not." The Phils-- and teams built like 'em--seem to have multiple "outs" each season that allow them to absorb even absurd injury waves; even when they were missing 3/4 of the starting infield, they still ran Polanco, a red-hot Werth, a capable Ibanez and Victorino out there most nights. In short, they're Marianas-Trench deep (if you haven't already, look at the amount of times over the last 3-4 seasons Utley's-- hell, Utley AND Rollins-- have missed significant time over the last few years... all division winners).

[Guest Edgy DC]

We hit our storms and Jerry was skippering the ship.

Remember that. Jerry. Sending Francoeur out there 3,000 games in a row.

[Fman99]

God damn, please, please, ship Ollie and Luis Castillo off to paid-to-not-be-in-my-face land. I see their faces on page 1 and I get erect with rage.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: We hit our storms and Jerry was skippering the ship. Remember that. Jerry. Sending Francoeur out there 3,000 games in a row.

That is also true.

That is also a lot of games.

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The problem isn't having "if"s. The problem is, jointly, having "if"s on which you absolutely must rely and the distance between the best-case "if" and the bottom-floor of "if not." The Phils-- and teams built like 'em--seem to have multiple "outs" each season that allow them to absorb even absurd injury waves; even when they were missing 3/4 of the starting infield, they still ran Polanco, a red-hot Werth, a capable Ibanez and Victorino out there most nights. In short, they're Marianas-Trench deep (if you haven't already, look at the amount of times over the last 3-4 seasons Utley's-- hell, Utley AND Rollins-- have missed significant time over the last few years... all division winners).

they did start Wilson Valdez a whole ton. It certainly feels like they got more out of him then we did.

[Guest Edgy DC]

We really have to get away from scapegoatage on the players. How many games has Ollie even been allowed into in this disastrous second half? How many game have they lost because of this mythical other 25th roster spot holder that he kept off the team?

It's not even on Francoeur for how bad he played. Texas is proving there's a role for him on a winning team. It's the leadership that allows successful players to emerge and that generates the conditions for their success. If this happens, you won't resent underperforming players (who happen every year),because they'll fade from relevance. Jerry has failed terribly in this regard.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy DC wrote: We hit our storms and Jerry was skippering the ship. Remember that. Jerry. Sending Francoeur out there 3,000 games in a row.

In the end, Jerry Manuel was exposed to be the typical bumbling manager that Met fans, over the last 20 years, have come to expect. But in Jerry's defense, he had little to work with in 2010, and wasn't dealt a contending team. Catcher and second base were black holes. Jason Bay was a bigger bust than George Foster was, whether due to injuries, diminished skills or the Citi Field psych-out. Angel Pagan's a 4th outfielder; his playing time against left-handed pitching ought to be kept to a minimum. (I realize that Jerry might be blamed for this one, but if not Angel against lefties, then who? And would it have made enough of a difference to overcome the other deficiencies)? Reyes was not at full strength for one third of the season. And for all of the promise and potential that Ike Davis exhibits, he's a below average hitting first baseman this season and therefore, more liability than asset relative to the NL's other first baseman.

Jeff Francoeur should not be getting several hundred plate appearances in a given season and Manuel probably got less rather than more out of the talent that he was managing. But the Mets problems run deeper than those two.

[Gwreck]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: and therefore, more liability than asset relative to the NL's other first baseman.

WAR tells us Ike is #8 in the NL this year.
He is behind Pujols, Votto, Gonzalez, Huff, Fielder, Howard and Dunn.
Ahead of LaRoche, Glaus, Lee (CHC), Sanchez, Berkman (pre-trade), Helton, Loney, and Jones.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Gwreck wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: and therefore, more liability than asset relative to the NL's other first baseman. WAR tells us Ike is #8 in the NL this year. He is behind Pujols, Votto, Gonzalez, Huff, Fielder, Howard and Dunn. Ahead of LaRoche, Glaus, Lee (CHC), Sanchez, Berkman (pre-trade), Helton, Loney, and Jones.

Ike Davis is a terrific fielder. WAR includes defense. I was writing about his hitting. Right now, Ike's about the 9th or 10th best hitting 1B in the NL, up from the very bottom of the barrel. He's having an excellent September. Still, you're not gonna make the playoffs with players that are 8th best WAR at their positions.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: and therefore, more liability than asset relative to the NL's other first baseman. WAR tells us Ike is #8 in the NL this year. He is behind Pujols, Votto, Gonzalez, Huff, Fielder, Howard and Dunn. Ahead of LaRoche, Glaus, Lee (CHC), Sanchez, Berkman (pre-trade), Helton, Loney, and Jones. Ike Davis is a terrific fielder. WAR includes defense. I was writing about his hitting. Right now, Ike's about the 9th or 10th best hitting 1B in the NL, up from the very bottom of the barrel. He's having an excellent September. Still, you're not gonna make the playoffs with players that are 8th best WAR at their positions.

It's about the team, now how each individual position matches up. I mean, Pagan's top 8 in WAR leaguewise isn't he? He was fluttering around there for a while actually, and was much higher around the time he was snubbed for the All-Star game.

[Guest Edgy DC]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Jeff Francoeur should not be getting several hundred plate appearances in a given season and Manuel probably got less rather than more out of the talent that he was managing. But the Mets problems run deeper than those two.

I brought up Francoeur not to hang him, but to argue against hanging.

Regarding Ike, I actually think you need plenty of eighth-best guys. And I think there's a good chance he's better than eighth next year.

[Gwreck]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: batmagadanleadoff wrote: and therefore, more liability than asset relative to the NL's other first baseman. WAR tells us Ike is #8 in the NL this year. He is behind Pujols, Votto, Gonzalez, Huff, Fielder, Howard and Dunn. Ahead of LaRoche, Glaus, Lee (CHC), Sanchez, Berkman (pre-trade), Helton, Loney, and Jones. Ike Davis is a terrific fielder. WAR includes defense. I was writing about his hitting. Right now, Ike's about the 9th or 10th best hitting 1B in the NL, up from the very bottom of the barrel. He's having an excellent September. Still, you're not gonna make the playoffs with players that are 8th best WAR at their positions.

I know WAR includes defense. It would be fair to judge Ike on an all-around basis if determining whether he's a liability or asset vis-a-vis the competition, right?

[Guest Edgy DC]

He's certainly not a libablity. Let's not confuse average starters with average players --- or average players with hurtful ones.

[Frayed Knot]

If you just wont to look at offense and compare him to other NL 1Bs w/more than 400 PAs, Ike lands 9th of 16 in RC/27 (Runs Created per game)

Votto (9.49) - Pujols - A Gonzalez - Fielder - Huff - Dunn - Howard - G Sanchez
** IKE (5.54) **
LaRoche - Helton - Glaus - Loney - Lee - Cantu - G Jones (4.17)

Not bad for a rookie with less than 300 PAs in the upper minors who was called up probably a half-season before things were planned.
The hope is that he improves with time and increased ABs rather than stalling out there. His strong finish following a mid-season swoon/adjustment period could be read as a positive sign of that.

And, yeah, the glove helps too.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I've been woefully out of it. Is John Maine even throwing or did he have to get the arm cut on again?

[Ceetar]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: I've been woefully out of it. Is John Maine even throwing or did he have to get the arm cut on again?

I don't believe he's throwing. A Phillies team doctor found a problem with his shoulder (that was missed by the previous tests due to the location of it. oddly blocked by the MRI or something) that was never repaired and he had surgery to fix it back in July or something.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Thx. Agree with Lefty Spesh that Johan's hurty arm and unknown return date/form is hugehugehuge.

Like Murphy as a super sorta utility guy if he's OK, and think the OF could be deep & strong next year, especially if Evans gets some ABs and shows he's fo' real.

I don't know what to make of Thole yet.

Scared for 2K11.

[Guest Edgy DC]

There's probably a good chance that the ever-silent Mets are envisioning Murphy as the first-team secondbaseman. The secondbase situation is probably the biggest (or near-biggest) place where the current picture will be different on opening day.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: There's probably a good chance that the ever-silent Mets are envisioning Murphy as the first-team secondbaseman. The secondbase situation is probably the biggest (or near-biggest) place where the current picture will be different on opening day.

I have no idea what the Mets are thinking. I'd explore what options are out there, while monitoring Murphy in winter leagues while shopping Castillo.

I think the bullpen picture will be the differentest, but that's almost always the case.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Another injury Q for anyone in the know.... is Murphy doing 'baseball activities' not XBox related? Or he still recovering?? Would be surprised if 2B isn't filled from the outside.

[Ceetar]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Another injury Q for anyone in the know.... is Murphy doing 'baseball activities' not XBox related? Or he still recovering?? Would be surprised if 2B isn't filled from the outside.

Last I heard on Daniel Murphy was that he was doing baseball stuff in Port St. Lucie, although not games or what not.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Ceetar wrote: A Boy Named Seo wrote: Another injury Q for anyone in the know.... is Murphy doing 'baseball activities' not XBox related? Or he still recovering?? Would be surprised if 2B isn't filled from the outside. Last I heard on Daniel Murphy was that he was doing baseball stuff in Port St. Lucie, although not games or what not.

Ah, good.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Murphy is in Fort Myers, Fla., with the Mets� instructional league team, where he will again play second base. Murphy then is due to get further experience at that position in the Dominican Republic this winter with Aguilas. The Dominican team intends to let Murphy play second base (...) "When I talked to him, he said that was his biggest thing for going to winter ball -- to play second base. He's not worried about hitting," Mets infield coach Chip Hale said. "He's worried about playing second base."

That instructional camp is being overseen by Terry Collins, who I take somewhat more seriously than the standard observer as a possible candidate for Skipper2011.