Feeling a Draft: MLB June First-Years, 2010

[Frayed Knot]

Yes. There are two basic rules for drafting:
Rule 1: Draft the best available talent regardless of position or perceived need
Rule 2: See Rule 1

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

As per said rules, if either of Taillon or Harper drop due to contract demands and the Mets aren't all over that... well... I'll be so mad, I'll, I'll... I'LL DANCE.

[Frayed Knot]

Some Bryce Harper hype - just in case you weren't sure he'd get enough. You ought to wear a bib while reading, although the odds of him dropping to #7 overall can't be too good.


From BA:

Unsurprisingly, College of Southern Nevada coach Tim Chambers has fielded plenty of phone calls from reporters about Bryce Harper this year. He's given up trying to temper expectations for Harper, the phenom who graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a sophomore and then earned his GED so he could skip the final two years of his high school career and enroll at the Las Vegas area junior college.

"Sometimes I don't know how to answer it," Chambers said. "I think he's the best player ever to play the game. I swear to God, I've never seen anything like it in my life. I've been coaching 21 years. If you factor age and the league he's playing in, he's the best player ever to play the game�it's amazing. I am dumbfounded. I knew he would do well, but I didn't expect this, I really didn't."

No one has ever doubted Harper's talent. Capable of hitting 500-foot home runs, throwing 96 mph off the mound and doing just about everything in between, it's no wonder Harper was dubbed "Baseball's Chosen One" and "the most exciting prodigy since Lebron (James)" by Sports Illustrated.

But there was some sentiment among baseball people heading into 2010 that Harper might not live up to the gargantuan expectations facing him this spring, as a 17-year-old against much older competition in a wood-bat league.

But after going 5-for-13 with three home runs in Southern Nevada's four-game sweep of JC of Southern Idaho this weekend, Harper is hitting .422/.516/.891 with 15 home runs and 42 RBIs in 128 at-bats. He has already breezed past the single-season school record for home runs (12, by Joe Wagner, with metal bats in 2001). He has 54 hits�29 of them for extra bases.

"He's destroying our league, and we're in a good league," Chambers said. "It's wood bat, we have really good pitching in our league, and he's just freaking destroying our league. He should be a junior in high school right now. It's sick, it really is�it's just disgusting. It's unbelievable what he's doing."

Shockingly, just two of Harper's 25 walks have been intentional, a benefit of playing for a very good team that is 34-6. The Coyotes seemingly always have runners on base when Harper comes to the plate, forcing opponents to pitch to him.

After Harper hit his third home run this weekend, Chambers stood in the third-base coaching box and had a conversation with Southern Idaho's third baseman.

"The third baseman looks at me and says, 'Shoot, if you throw him a strike, he hits a home run. What do you do?' " Chambers said. "You walk him, I guess. He's special."

Chambers said the 6-foot-3, 205-pound Harper has also done a fine job behind the plate handling CSN's power arms, and one American League scout last week told BA that he also thought Harper's receiving and throwing were both showing progress, projecting Harper as an average big league defender eventually. He also praised Harper for his play at other positions.

Because the Scenic West Athletic Conference schedule includes doubleheaders on Fridays and Saturdays, Harper has split time between catching and playing right field, center field and even some third base. He'll usually catch one game in each doubleheader, and Chambers said Harper will likely catch more often in the postseason. He said he believes Harper could be in the big leagues as a catcher within three years, but his bat could carry him to the majors in two years if he moved to an outfield spot full-time. And the AL scout said that while Harper wasn't ideal in center field, he's also good there defensively due to his athleticism.

That's high praise for a 17-year-old, but high praise is nothing new for Harper. When a player generates as much hype as Harper has, there inevitably will be skeptics, but Harper is gradually making believers out of all of them.

"The rest of the world, the critics, all the smack-talking everybody does�come watch him, and you'll go, 'Whoa,' " Chambers said. "Bottom line, he's the best amateur baseball player in America. Bottom line."

[Benjamin Grimm]

So which are the six teams that draft before the Mets? Hopefully they're six teams that are not interested in having the greatest player who ever lived.

[Frayed Knot]

1 - Nationals (a Strasburg-Harper 1-2 combo would cost them a pretty penny but might be the best back-to-back amateur picks ever and would go a long way towards turning around that franchise should everything work out as hoped)

2 - Pirates
3 - Orioles
4 - Royals
5 - Indians
6 - Diamondbacks



Mets blew the sixth spot by winning their final three games last year

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Nats might also feel some pressure to keep him from the Orioles.

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels takes a look at some of the better HS pitchers in advance of June's draft.
He lists these four in particular as having the talent to be possible top 10 picks:

A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS (Florida)
Well known to scouts for a long time, still has projectability at 6-5, 190 pounds but already hits 91-94 MPH with good movement. Mixes in a good breaking ball but will need to improve change-up in pro ball, not unusual for his age. He throws strikes and basically has no major flaws as high school pitchers go.
He has a University of Miami commitment but should be signable if drafted early enough. He's a definite candidate for the Top Ten, and barring a late injury disaster or unusual bonus demands he won't get past 15.

Dylan Covey, RHP, Maranatha HS (California)
Good athlete, not huge at 6-2, 195, but has more than enough arm strength with a 91-94 MPH fastball and a nasty curve. Well-known to scouts on the amateur circuit, like Cole he is relatively polished for his age and has done well against good quality competition.
A University of San Diego signee, he's been rated a Top 20 talent for some time, has done nothing to change that this spring, and could get into the Top 10 under the right circumstances. I doubt he would get past the Angels at 18 and could go as high as the Mets at #7.

Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS (Texas)
This draft is loaded with high school pitching, but just about everyone thinks Taillon is the best of the bunch. Listed at 6-6, 225 last fall, he's up to 6-7, 230, but despite his size he's quite athletic. Clocked as high as 98 MPH, he maintains steady mid-90 velocity. His mechanics are consistent considering his age and size, and he has a killer curveball.
Committed to Rice, he won't be a cheap sign. Assuming that the Nationals do as expected and pick Bryce Harper first overall, Taillon could go to the Pirates at two or the Orioles at three. If they pass, the Royals (willing to spend money on the draft and take risks) are unlikely to shy away.

Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS (Florida)
Committed to the University of Florida, Whitson has ideal size and some remaining projectability at 6-4, 190 pounds. He has a 90-94 MPH fastball, hitting 95 at times, and an advanced slider for a high school kid. He is polished for his age, throws strikes, and has a good balance of current skill, remaining projection, safety, and risk as high school pitchers go.
He is likely go to somewhere in the Top Ten, and certainly won't make it past 15 unless his bonus demands are outrageous.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Baseball Rumor Mill's notes, compiled from ESPN.com and Baseball America reports, included some reports from last week's games on three projected top-10 college starters:

LSU ace Anthony Ranaudo were finally able to pitch at 100% and did so in front of many scouts. His command wasn't there, but Ranaudo was able to sustain his velocity at 90-92 and his off speed pitches looked good. Who Pittsburgh takes at #2 will be the most interesting question of the draft. Ranaudo, if healthy, is one option. Another? Ole Miss's LHP Drew Pomeranz. He went 7IP giving up 2H, 4BB 0ER and struck out 10 to increase his K/BB for the year to a crazy 90/24. Pomeranz might not be the first LHP in the draft as Florida Gulf Coast pitcher Chris Sale is drawing consideration from Kansas City at the fourth pick. He did not help his draft stock on Friday, however, with the following pitching line: 7IP, 11H, 2BB, 8ER, 11K.

[Vic Sage]

what were the picks we gave up by trading Wagner, instead of offering arb?
I mean, now that we know the Mets have absolutely no interest in the player they got for Wagner (Chris "we'd rather play Jacobs" Carter), what did they give up to save a few of Freddie's coupons?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Vic Sage wrote: what were the picks we gave up by trading Wagner, instead of offering arb? I mean, now that we know the Mets have absolutely no interest in the player they got for Wagner (Chris "we'd rather play Jacobs" Carter), what did they give up to save a few of Freddie's coupons?

Assuming things played out in the same fashion but for the Carter-Wagner trade, the Mets would be looking at a #20 and a #36 (supplemental) overall in addition to the #6.

They're also sending the #57 overall to Boston for Bay. So Theo should be very, very nice to Omar at the meetings for as long as O's attending them.

[Guest Number 6]

Apparently, Bryce Harper is a future Yanqui, according to Kevin Goldstein of BP.

The Makeup: This should not be underrated. It's impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn't blown away by Harper's ability on the field, but it's equally difficult to find one who doesn't genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer." How this plays into the negotiation or future evaluation is yet to be determined, as history has shown us that the bigger talent a player is, the more makeup issues teams will deal with. Bench players can't afford to be problems, but plenty of teams happily put up with difficult superstars.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The system kind of plays into that, doesn't it? I mean, if he was a Latino, he'd be playing pro ball and haviing the occasional humbling experience or getting promoted to a level where he'd find some. Here he's playing a level where the competition is a plaything. I think we all know what how jock dominance can feed teenage entitlement.

[Guest Swan Swan H]

He also has a girly name.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Swan Swan H wrote: He also has a girly name.

Hell, I've seen video of the guy, but I still keep picturing Ron Howard's daughter with a chest protector and more power.

[Frayed Knot]

The system kind of plays into that, doesn't it? I mean, if he was a Latino, he'd be playing pro ball and haviing the occasional humbling experience or getting promoted to a level where he'd find some. Here he's playing a level where the competition is a plaything. I think we all know what how jock dominance can feed teenage entitlement.

Sure, but Mauer was all-world in several sports at the same age and (as mentioned in the article above) is considered the total opposite.

I had never heard this about Harper before but Goldstein talks to a ton of people about prospects and I assume isn't the type to simply swallow the opinions of one crotchety scout and repeat it as if universal fact.


And on a semi-related topic, Steven Strasburg was just on BB2N and, in civvies, is a totally unremarkable looking specimen. Maybe it was just the camera angles but Aaron Boone looked bigger and fitter.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Speaking of Goldstein... he's started to guess at the top 10 over at BP. As for what he says about the Mets, well... yick.

Multiple sources indicated that the Mets will �go off the board,� or �pull a surprise� at No. 7. �three sources indicated a connection between the Mets and Cal State Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon. �maybe nobody has brought more wide-ranging opinions than Colon. �The Good: �He�s shocked us with his power and he�s proven some stuff with wood bats for us already as well. He�s not a runner, but he has great footwork, great hands, and a good arm. He�s not sexy with upside, but for me, if you are talking about a guy like Manny Machado, you�re hope is that in three years he�s as good as Colon is now.� The Bad: �Based on what I expected, he�s the most overrated and overhyped guy I�ve seen all spring. He�s a 30 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] runner and he�s kind of fat. It�s a gritty utility guy for me, as I just saw no tools there. How many 30 runners are playing shortstop in the big leagues? At best, he�s maybe Ronnie Belliard.�

[Guest Edgy DC]

It seems to me that --- their statements to the contrary --- the Mets may be looking for less projectable well-rounded athleticness than in the past and may be more willing than they had been to land amateur talent with special skills in one area while overlooking notable deficiencies in another. I've been chewing on that notion for a few weeks, and mightn't have mentioned it, except that report feeds into it, as does the presence of guys like Ike Davis, Reese Havens, and Wilmer Flores, and maybe Steven Matz and Eddie Kunz as well.

[Frayed Knot]

I generally don't consider "surprises" in the top ten to be a good thing.
Stick to BAT - Best Available Talent

[Frayed Knot]

John Sickels is in the midst of looking at HS hitters and mentions Manny Machado (referenced above) as one of those deserving to go early in Round 1:


Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private High School, Hialeah, Florida
- Machado has emerged as the top overall player in the high school class, growing from 6-2, 180 to 6-3, 190 over the last 12 months. Scouts are impressed with his glove and he has the range and hands to be a top-flight defensive shortstop. His arm is okay but is very accurate and has a quick release, so it shouldn't be a problem at higher levels. There were some questions about his bat pre-season, but he's shown much better offensive potential this year with a swing that should provide a high batting average with at least decent power as he matures. Pure running speed is his only average tool. Signed with Florida International University, Machado is now aligned with Scott Boras and may be a difficult sign. On talent alone, he would fit perfectly with the Orioles at number three or the Royals at number four.



Also pimps up Austin Wilson, OF, Harvard Westlake High School, North Hollywood, California
- Probably the toolsiest overall player in the high school class, Wilson features excellent power potential, decent speed, and an amazing throwing arm. He's 6-4, 215, and reminds scouts of players like Andre Dawson and Jermaine Dye. He's still somewhat raw as a hitter, but Wilson is extremely intelligent and has a strong work ethic, giving him a good shot at ironing out remaining flaws in his swing. He has a Stanford scholarship and is academically-oriented, giving him plenty of leverage on draft day. Toolswise he belongs in the Top Ten of the draft, but he could end up slipping towards the bottom of the first round if teams get worried about his bonus demands. Current speculation is that he's willing to sign if the money is right.

[MFS62]

"Raw as a hitter".
Is that another way of saying "Swings at everything and can't hit a breaking ball"?
Just because a guy is "smart", it doesn't mean he will be able to hit.
Moe Berg comes to mind.
And, tools?
Remember Al Shirley?

Omar, howz about picking a ballplayer?

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

You're criticizing Minaya because of an independent scouting report?

The number of high school seniors who are completed products is virtually nil. They're all raw to some degree, mostly very large degrees.

Harvard Westlake is a very comptetitive prep school and students don't tend to go there only to skip college.

[MFS62]

Of course I'm not criticizing Omar for his drafting. That's why I referenced Berg and Shirley - way before Omar. And Berg wasn't a Met.
He has made some really good draft and International choices (Pelfrey, Ike, Mejia, etc.).
Even before he was a GM, he was known for having a keen eye for talent. He has kept that up. I was just having fun with some of the terms in that scouting report and rooting Omar on to make another of his great picks.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Sickels starts delving into college hitters now, and is high on possible NYM pick Christian Colon, at least a lot higher than that one scout Goldstein quotes:


Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton
- The 6-1, 190 pound Colon may be the first four-year college hitter drafted. After a slow start, he's now hitting .325/.432/.618, knocking 11 homers along with 24 walks and just 10 strikeouts in 157 at-bats, giving him more offensive potential than most middle infielders. I love the BB/K ratio. His range and hands work well at shortstop, but his arm isn't exceptional and some scouts see him more as a second baseman long-term. My own view is that he should be able to remain at short, enhancing his value. His work ethic and makeup are also considered excellent.
Colon is a Scott Boras guy, but his overall potential should still get him into the Top Ten picks.



also:

Zach Cox, 3B, University of Arkansas
- If Colon isn't the first four-year hitter drafted, Cox could be. The 6-1, 215 pound left-handed hitter has a pure stroke and excelled last year in the Cape Cod League, showing his skills with the wooden bat. He should hit for both power and average at higher levels. Defensively, he has the arm strength and hands for third base, but perhaps not the range. He could be moved to second base or perhaps the outfield eventually, but I wouldn't give up on him at third. He's hitting .436 with a 30/22 BB/K in 181 at-bats for the Razorbacks, showing strong contact hitting skills but not terrific power yet with six homers.
He could go anywhere from six to 20 in the draft, and I'll try to get a better handle on his slot before I do my mock draft next week.



Yasmani Grandal, C, University of Miami-Florida
- Six months ago, Grandal was considered to be similar to Gibbs: a strong defensive catcher with a decent bat who could get into the lower part of the first round under the right conditions. But while Gibbs has maintained his stock, Grandal has significantly improved his with a breakout season, hitting .429 with 10 homers, 39 walks and 25 strikeouts in 154 at-bats, leading his team in OPS, OBP, and SLG while showing good plate discipline.
Rumors now have him getting into the top 15 picks, maybe the top ten, and even possibly in the top five; one rumor connects him with the Royals at number four overall. I don't know if he'll go that high, but a 6-2, 210 pound left-hitting catcher with power, plate discipline, and a good glove is certainly a very attractive commodity.


Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State University
- A 6-1, 185 pound right-handed hitter, Brentz is hitting .331/.438/.669 with 11 homers. His production has been solid but perhaps not quite as good as his press clippings: his OPS in the Middle Tennessee context is about +26 percent, very good but not spectacular. On the other hand, he's had some problems with a nagging ankle injury, and scouts say he's being worked around in the lineup: he's not getting many good pitches to hit. They continue to focus on his excellent raw power, some scouts rating him as the top power hitter available in the four-year college ranks. He has decent speed and a right field throwing arm.
Brentz should go somewhere in the 12-18 range depending on late May performance and his bonus demands.


and, of course,
Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada
- Everyone knows about Harper; he's been hyped for years, and he's actually living up to the hype, hitting .407/.500/.901 with 21 homers, 30 walk and 31 strikeouts in 162 at-bats, with 16 stolen bases in 18 attempts. He's made progress on defense, and his bat is extremely polished for a 17 year old playing against older competition. Two negatives: he might have to move to right field or first base eventually if he outgrows catcher, and his makeup has been questioned of late. I'm not worried about the size issue at this point. On the other hand, the makeup thing is somewhat concerning. His work ethic on the field isn't questioned, but he apparently has a huge sense of entitlement. That is understandable given his age and the fact that he's the best 17 year old hitter to come along in the last 20 years. A big ego goes with the territory and is hardly damning at this stage of his career. The thing that bothers me are reports of him taunting opponents. I'd like more detail about that. Razzing opponents has been part of the game for a century and there's nothing wrong with that, but the fact that it is being pointed out as a specific issue with Harper is unusual. The taunting could be an overblown report that we should ignore. It could be a simple case of 17 year old braggadocio that he'll outgrow. Or it could be a symptom of a larger issue that could alienate teammates and negatively impact his career. There's no way to know yet given his age, and at this point I'm not going to worry about that either, not without more information.
Even if Harper has significant makeup problems and will command a huge bonus, I think the Nationals still have to draft him at number one. Harper is basically Joe Mauer with more power, and you just can't pass that up, even if he doesn't have Mauer's personality.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yesterday was apparently A.J. Cole day in the Mets-blog realm.

Amazin' Avenue/MetsGeek's Alex Nelson tidily profiles the lanky prep righty for AA, pointing up his mechanics, fastball, and "projectability"...

There are two things that A.J. Cole has that you just can't teach: size and arm speed. Cole's primary asset is his projection. He has one of those tall, lanky frames that make scouts salivate. Long legs, long arms. He pairs that with maybe the quickest right arm in this draft... And unlike some other high school pitchers, Cole's mechanics are mostly a positive. There's a little bit of length to his throwing motion (which I'll outline below), but he's still quick to the plate, and he takes a nice, healthy stride. As of right now, I don't see anything that suggests he'll have crippling issues with command, as I do with Jameson Taillon, for example

... and talking down his breaking stuff, and a funky little elbow-pronation issue:

The slider certainly has promise. He throws it at the right speed, he's got a good arm slot for it, and it's a tight offering when everything's going well. But he doesn't always snap it off right, and the result is an inconsistent pitch. Keith Law has suggested that he might be better off switching to a curve ball, and I don't necessarily disagree. But Cole has a three-quarters arm slot that isn't as well suited for a big-breaking curve... What's happening is Cole is twisting his forearm too early, pronating the elbow sooner than necessary and causing his arm to pause slightly. This is usually associated with Tommy John surgery.

Also, there's video.

Michael Diaz, meanwhile, does the same for SNY-affiliated MetsMinorLeagueBlog here.

He generates big time arm speed, with little effort. Reports have his fastball sitting in the low 90s, and tops out at 94. While he lacks a plus fastball right now, Cole does have the frame to fill out and add a few more ticks on his fastball. Cole�s secondary pitches still need refinement. Reports have his curveball sitting in the mid 70s. He has flashed a plus breaking ball, but still needs to be more consistent with it. He needs to stay on top of his curveball, to create the downward break. His curveball tends to flatten out, making it very hittable... Blessed with an ideal pitcher�s frame, and an above average fastball, Cole has a chance to go in the top-10 of the draft.

All in all, it sounds a bit like the scouts who like this guy seem to leer at his body as if he were pitching in a wet-t-shirt contest, and not so much on what he's got now, repertoire-wise. Between this, and his having a very solid backup plan (a commitment to Miami (FL)), he may not be worth the trigger-pull at the 7 slot. But he is 6'5", 190 lbs...

[MFS62]

You can't just look at body type for a pitcher and think "too thin". Pedro Martinez (when he was young), Tim Lincecum and Ron Guidry could fall through a sidewalk subway vent grating.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

MFS62 wrote: You can't just look at body type for a pitcher and think "too thin". Pedro Martinez (when he was young), Tim Lincecum and Ron Guidry could fall through a sidewalk subway vent grating. Later

It's not that he's thin... it's that his build is seen as his biggest asset (or one of his biggest assets, anyway). My thing is, guys like Pedro and Lincecum-- and, on the other hand, guys like Prior (a "great body" for a power pitcher, but a motion that's all arm/scapular load)-- prove that, gigantic human-red-flags aside, it's not how you're built, but how your motion generates power/velocity/spin that counts.

[Frayed Knot]

MFS62 wrote: You can't just look at body type for a pitcher and think "too thin". Pedro Martinez (when he was young), Tim Lincecum and Ron Guidry could fall through a sidewalk subway vent grating.

The race doesn't always go to the swiftest nor the fight to the strongest ... but that's the way to bet.

IOW, sure you can be slight of build and still generate enough arm speed for a 'plus' major league fastball, but if you've got one bullet to spend on a high draft pick you'll probably want to use on the not scrawny one just to be safe.

[Frayed Knot]

Innuresting answer to a question posed to BA about who were the hottest draft picks over the last 20 years [u:31pyjnvf]based on the perception of them at the time[/u:31pyjnvf] they were picked.

It's just one columnist's opinion but ...
- 2 have yet to be drafted as they're in this year's pool
- 10 of the remaining 18 were #1 overall picks
- 4 were #2
- The remaining 4 dropped for real or perceived signability issues including one who fell to #4, two #5s, and, the only one not in a top-5, Todd Van Poppel at #14

By my count the 20 includes just 4 bonafide stars [Rodriguez, Teixeira, Beckett & Mauer]
5 stone-cold busts [all of them pitchers - Prior, McDonald, Wilson, Taylor, Van Poppel],
5 that fall somewhere in-between [upton x 2, Drew, Hamilton, Benson] some of which could still move into the 'Star' category
and 6 where it's still too early to tell



1. Stephen Strasburg, rhp, San Diego State (Nationals, No. 1, 2009)
The latest to wear the mantle of best college pitching prospect ever.

2. Mark Prior, rhp, Southern California (Cubs, No. 2, 2001)
Had slightly less stuff than Strasburg, but proved himself against better competition.

3. Ben McDonald, rhp, Louisiana State (Orioles, No. 1, 1989)
The Strasburg of the pre-Internet era; $824,000 contract was shocking at the time.

4. Justin Upton, ss, Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va. (Diamondbacks, No. 1, 2005)
Tabbed as 2005's top prospect three years earlier, he lived up to the hype.

5. Todd Van Poppel, rhp, Martin HS, Arlington, Texas (Athletics, No. 14, 1990)
Braves passed on Van Poppel because of signability and took Chipper Jones at No. 1.

6. Brien Taylor, lhp, Beaufort (N.C.) HS (Yankees, No. 1, 1991)
Never reached the bigs, but scouts still say he and David Clyde were top prep lefties ever.

7. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Westminster Christian HS, Miami (Mariners, No. 1, 1993)
Had the highest ceiling scouts had seen in years�and still surpassed expectations.

8. J.D. Drew, of, Florida State (Phillies, No. 4, 1997/unsigned)
First 30-30 player in college history sought a $10 million deal and didn't get it.

9. David Price, lhp, Vanderbilt (Devil Rays, No. 1, 2007)
Delivered almost instant payback with ALCS, World Series heroics a year later.

10. Matt Wieters, c, Georgia Tech (Orioles, No. 5, 2007)
A more well-rounded prospect than Bryce Harper is this year, and a switch-hitter to boot.

11. Paul Wilson, rhp, Florida State (Mets, No. 1, 1994)
Like many of the pitchers on this list, he fell victim to injuries.

12. Kris Benson, rhp, Clemson (Pirates, No. 1, 1996)
Lauded as big league-ready, he didn't arrive in Pittsburgh until 1999.

13. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Georgia Tech (Rangers, No. 5, 2001)
Before the 2001 season began, he was considered a better prospect than Prior.

14. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Vanderbilt (Pirates, No. 2, 2008)
Think the Rays might wish they had taken Alvarez over Tim Beckham at No. 1?

15. Bryce Harper, c, CC of Southern Nevada (2010)
Most hyped draft prospect ever, starting with a Sports Illustrated cover story at age 16.

16. Josh Hamilton, of, Athens Drive HS, Raleigh, N.C. (Devil Rays, No. 1, 1999)
Showed all five tools as an outfielder, plus a mid-90s fastball on the mound.

17. Jameson Taillon, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS (2010)
Area scouts say Taillon is the best high school pitcher they've ever seen, better than . . .

18. Josh Beckett, rhp, Spring (Texas) HS (Marlins, No. 2, 1999)
So dominant that he might have been the No. 1 pick in 1998 as a high school junior.

19. B.J. Upton, ss, Greenbrier Christian Academy, Chesapeake, Va. (Devil Rays, No. 2, 2002)
Drew a lot of comparisons to a more physically and offensively developed Derek Jeter.

20. Joe Mauer, c, Cretin-Derham Hall, St. Paul (Twins, No. 1, 2001)
Overshadowed by Prior and Teixeira at the time, he has surpassed them both.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

The lesson I take away from this?

If you're drafting high, you're probably better off drafting a position player.

[seawolf17]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: The lesson I take away from this? If you're drafting high, you're probably better off drafting a position player.

If you're drafting high, you should probably let someone who isn't make your choices.