Feeling a Draft: MLB June First-Years, 2010

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Just about four months until adoption season again. With our favorites nursing a 7th overall pick this year, it's never too early to start drooling, no?

First, check out two prospects that the Mets won't see drop to their slot: wonderboy Bryce Harper (I had no idea he was a catcher) and Texas schoolboy pitcher Jameson Taillon. Harper's special... but Taillon might be just as interesting a prospect. And if he looks a LITTLE unsignable to a few of the teams-- KC, Pittsburgh, etc.-- in front of us... well... just lookit.

Video of both here. Witness, specifically, the way his fastball gets more giddy-up (and even a little tail action) as the game progresses, and the Wiffle-ball-like movement of Taillon's offspeed stuff from his footage (a long series of clips/sequences from a HS all-star game). And with command, no less... with that gangly, huge, unfinished body, too. (Of less informational value, but more fun, is Harper legging out a triple nicely... then slapping away the third baseman's lingering tag.)

More to the point, maybe-- here's an early stab at a mock draft by Rob Orza of comprehensive scouting hub Baseball Draft Report. He has the Mets passing up Team USA shortstop/Cal State Fullerton Jeter-y sort Christian Colon and Georgia Tech junkball wizard/All-Baseball-Name-Team prospect Deck McGuire for Virginia Tech's Jesse Hahn, a man with a fantastic sinking fastball... and nothing else (sound familiar?). There's some nice breakdowns of other prospects as well through the end of the first round projections.

[Valadius]

I don't want a Jeter-y sort anyway.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Yeah, but how much do you want a guy named Deck McGuire?

[Valadius]

That would be fucking awesome.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

No, my friend. That would be fucking Deck.

(Also, plus-plus curve and change, and plus slider. Droolworthy.)

Similarly funky with the off-speed stuff: lefty Chris Sale and DeAndre Smelter (who, ironically, brings little heat).

[ashie62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Yeah, but how much do you want a guy named Deck McGuire?

Better than Nuke LaRouche?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Jesse Hahn would be an interesting name; to me, Don Hahn was an original Met.

And if "Jesse" is short for Jessica, then it's interesting for yet another reason. (Raise your hand if you remember Jessica Hahn. And bonus points if you remember which famous preacher she scandalized.)

[Centerfield]

I remember.

Especially the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zg34iR1D49c

[Centerfield]

Oh, and it was Jim Baker. The one with the wife with the funky makeup. Tammy Faye? I think?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I would probably draft a Tommy Kitaen, scouting report unseen.

[Guest themetfairy]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Just about four months until adoption season again.

Dang - I was thinking about adopting a prospect or two when I go down to Spring Training at the end of the month.

What are the ramifications of an out of season adoption? Do prospects go stale?

[HahnSolo]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I would probably draft a Tommy Kitaen, scouting report unseen.

I bet he hits lefties.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

HahnSolo wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I would probably draft a Tommy Kitaen, scouting report unseen. I bet he hits lefties.

Well, yes, I'd imagine he would have good-looking splits.

[ashie62]

themetfairy wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Just about four months until adoption season again. Dang - I was thinking about adopting a prospect or two when I go down to Spring Training at the end of the month. What are the ramifications of an out of season adoption? Do prospects go stale?

Only ones named Fernando Martinez

[Valadius]

HahnSolo wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I would probably draft a Tommy Kitaen, scouting report unseen. I bet he hits lefties.

[Guest attgig]

are we really going to go above slot to sign a good prospect? or are we going to get scared like a small market team, and sign someone who's going to be projected as a late 1strounder?

[Frayed Knot]

attgig wrote: are we really going to go above slot to sign a good prospect? or are we going to get scared like a small market team, and sign someone who's going to be projected as a late 1strounder?

C'mon, in which 1st round have the Mets done that?

This whole 'not going over slot' complaint exists but it's NOT that the club willingly passes on known quantities early in the draft out of cheapness.
What they're doing not doing is spending over the recommended levels with later round selections in order to attempt to buy some raw but possibly high-reward kid out of a college commitment that might pay off down the road. That's something they could be doing and should be doing if/when the find the right candidate but it's also a method that's going to produce a lot more misses than hits.

[batmagadanleadoff]

In order to properly evaluate the Mets success at acquiring amateur talent, you have to recognize that the team has developed the strongest pipeline to Latin American talent in all of baseball. The Mets, more than any other team in baseball, are willing to forfeit a first round pick in order to sign a Type A free agent and also, to adopt unreasonably rigid positions favoring baseball's recommended slotting system. The team does this because it's confident that it'll more than make it up by signing prime Central and South American teenaged amateurs who essentially enter USA pro baseball as free agents. It's a deliberate MO.

Among the team's many Latin American signings are Jose Reyes, Fernando Martinez, Jesus Flores and Carlos Gomez. And while Gomez hasn't yet panned out, there's hardly a team in baseball that wouldn't have wanted Gomez in their system six or seven years ago. On the other hand, I have nothing against the team maintaining its South of the Border advantage and simultaneously going over slot in the June draft. I mean, are the two approaches mutually exclusive?

[Fman99]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I would probably draft a Tommy Kitaen, scouting report unseen.

Would he be rolling around on David Coverdale's car?

[RealityChuck]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: In order to properly evaluate the Mets success at acquiring amateur talent, you have to recognize that the team has developed the strongest pipeline to Latin American talent in all of baseball. The Mets, more than any other team in baseball, are willing to forfeit a first round pick in order to sign a Type A free agent and also, to adopt unreasonably rigid positions favoring baseball's recommended slotting system. The team does this because it's confident that it'll more than make it up by signing prime Central and South American teenaged amateurs who essentially enter USA pro baseball as free agents. It's a deliberate MO. Among the team's many Latin American signings are Jose Reyes, Fernando Martinez, Jesus Flores and Carlos Gomez. And while Gomez hasn't yet panned out, there's hardly a team in baseball that wouldn't have wanted Gomez in their system six or seven years ago. On the other hand, I have nothing against the team maintaining its South of the Border advantage and simultaneously going over slot in the June draft. I mean, are the two approaches mutually exclusive?

Very true, and certainly nice, but that doesn't preclude them from drafting top talent, too.

Of course, I don't know why anyone puts any faith in mock drafts. They are worse than meaningless.

[Frayed Knot]

I don't know why anyone puts any faith in mock drafts. They are worse than meaningless.

Particularly when the college/HS season hasn't started yet in most places.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Point taken. Posted the mock as more of a window into 32 decent player evaluations, and not so much as a predictive tool.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

My favorite part of the draft, I think, is looking over all the names of the eligible players and realizing that maybe only 1 in a 1,000 will become a household name, but It. Will. Be. A. Household. Name.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo looks at some potential household names, providing a look at some early spring showcases, as well as aVERY early top 10 and 11-20. Bryce Harper is #4 on his list, in favor of a pair of SEC starters: LSU righty Anthony Ranaudo and Ole Miss' Drew Pomeranz.

On Ranaudo (from lsusports.net):

Originally drafted in the 11th round of 2007 draft by the Texas Rangers before deciding to go to college. Hard-throwing right-hander with mid-90s fastball who is considered one of the best pitching prospects in the country ... projected to be one of the starters in LSU�s 2009 weekend rotation ... a big, intimidating pitcher ... throws a curveball and changeup to complement his fastball ... has a tremendous feel for his pitches, especially for his height.

On Pomeranz (from draftamerica.com):

Pomeranz is a big-bodied lefty with solid stuff across the board and two legitimate swing-and-miss pitches. He generally sits 89-92 mph with his fastball that he can throw to both sides of the plate. His curve is his best offering and when he's on, he comes with good depth and tight break at 79-77mph. He can mix-in an upper-70s changeup, which he throws with decent arm speed. Not surprising for a big man, Pomeranz can struggle to get all of the pieces of his motion working together, leading to inconsistent command of his offerings and, more broadly, bouts of wildness. His arm action can get long in the back, though he does an adequate job of hiding the ball with his body and utilizes a windmill-like release, giving him good downward plane on his fastball and a nice angle on his curve, particularly against lefties. He can miss bats and when he's in a groove, mechanically, he has some of the best stuff in the 2010 draft class.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

From Andy Seiler of mlb.com, a look back at Met draft trends under scouting director Rudy Terrasas... and super-premature postulation about where Mets scouts might have their eyes.

Rudy Terrasas has been scouting for almost 30 years now, and it was during his first decade of scouting that he met up with general manager Omar Minaya with the Texas Rangers. Terrasas spent almost 20 years with Texas, and he only left when Doug Melvin was replaced with John Hart after the 2003 season. Terrasas� job with the Mets is his first shot at being a scouting director, and that job was seemingly in jeopardy as the 2009 season came to an end. However, Mets management decided to stick with Minaya, who in turn decided to stick with Terrasas as his amateur scouting director. This year will be Terrasas� fifth draft, so it�s time to look at some trends from his first four. The first trend that�s apparent is a preference for arms in the early rounds. Usually this is in the supplemental first round and beyond, as Terrasas� two first-round picks have both been college bats. Until 2008, Terrasas had not even selected a bat in his first five picks. The last two drafts have featured a fair number of bats, but it�s obvious that Terrasas prefers arms in the second to fifth rounds. A second trend, which lies in pitching, is a preference for bigger, more projectable arms, even in the college ranks. Magnifico was a bit of an anomaly in that he�s �only� 6�1��, but the majority of Terrasas� pitching picks were big or absolutely huge (Moviel). One final trend to look at is that when Terrasas does pick bats, he prefers athletic players with solid defensive ceilings. Davis was the least athletic of the bunch, but he did have a plus arm, and he profiled to be about average at first base. I look for that trend to continue, though Terrasas generally doesn�t pick hitters that are projecting to be plus hitters at the Major League level... ...Since Terrasas has never made a selection in the top ten before, it�s hard to say where the Mets will focus their scouting activities for that pick. I�ve connected them to prep arms so far, but I�m sure they�re searching out players that will signable for slot, while also maximizing the talent. Prep arms are usually not signable for slot unless you drop to the second tier, so that�s a distinct possibility here.

[Frayed Knot]

The final draft order is now set in stone (Barajas was the final piece to the puzzle)

Met picks:
#7
#89
#122
... and then every 30 picks after that

Pick #57 is the one that wound up being ceded to the BoSox for Bay

[Frayed Knot]

The early view for the top of the upcoming draft is one much deeper in pitching than in hitting - at least on the college level.
So at around the midpoint in the college season, BA reviews two LHPs they think are ticketed for the top 10 in the draft - although, keep in mind, it's just one scout's opinion:


"The scouting consensus is that junior lefthanders Drew Pomeranz of Mississippi and Chris Sale (also mentioned in an above post) of Florida Gulf Coast will both be drafted among the first 10 picks in June, and maybe the top five. Both have excellent stuff and good size, though Pomeranz is considerably more physical at 6-foot-5, 231 pounds than Sale at 6-6, 183.
An American League crosschecker gave a side-by-side comparison of the two lefthanded aces

"For me, they're probably the two best lefties out there, and I would love to have either one of them."
"Sale's fastball probably has more movement than Pomeranz's does. Pomeranz does it as easy as you could see�it looks like he's throwing batting practice fastballs out there, and it's 93-94. It's just a very easy delivery, whereas Sale's a little bit herky-jerky with that delivery; he's got a lot going on. Sale I've seen up to 95, and he can reach back late in the game and maybe get a 93, but he'll pretty much settle at 91-92. Pomeranz can go back in the sixth or seventh and get 93-94 when he wants to. He'll probably pitch with a 60 fastball (on the 20-80 scouting scale), a firm 92. It's truer than Sale's, but the thing I like about Pomeranz's fastball is the angle he's able to create with it�he's able to go to both sides. Sale, with that cross-body finish, kind of struggles to get out on the front side consistently and get his fastball in on righthanded hitters. Pomeranz can get it in on righthanded hitters well. I would see Sale pitching more with a 55 fastball, whereas Pomeranz will pitch with a 60.

"Sale has a good slurvy slider, but Pomeranz has a true 12-to-6 downer curveball that is a true swing-and-miss pitch for me. I would say Sale's breaking ball is a solid 55, and I'd give Pomeranz's a 60. Sale's slider is very effective to lefties because of the angle that he's throwing it from and the direction he's landing in his delivery�everything's pointing away from a lefthanded hitter. When he's throwing that slider slashing across, it's hard for lefties to hit it. Against righties he can bury it on the back foot at times, but he can get around it and give it a sweepy action at other times, and when it's up it can get hit.

"Sale's changeup is really good�I would give it a 60. It's got good arm speed, good fade/sink action. He's able to repeat it and throw it back to back, which I like. He's not afraid to use it against lefties and righties. Pomeranz doesn't really have to use the changeup that much because he's not afraid to pitch with his fastball and he's not afraid to pitch to contact, but when he does throw it, it's a solid-average pitch with a chance to be a 55-type pitch in the future with more use. He's got enough hand feel with it and enough touch with it, there's no doubt it'll be a tick above-average pitch.

"For me, the difference is Pomeranz is a bigger guy, more durable for a starting role, and Sale has a real frail body, for me. I'm not sure how long Sale's body will last, and I have some real questions about the arm action on the back. It's an upside-down takeaway�that's a red flag in the baseball industry, it usually leads to some elbow problems down the road. It's easier for Pomeranz to repeat it and there's less effort there. Over the long haul of a season, Pomeranz won't have to exert as much effort as Sale will have to exert. Command for me with Sale will probably be average, and Pomeranz for me would be a tick above�he throws more quality strikes in the zone. Sale will be a little more scattered.

"With Pomeranz, the body's there, the stuff is there, he's durable, he's pitched in a major conference and been successful, he's pitched with Team USA and been successful. If I had to put my $2.5 million on one, I'd put it there."

[ashie62]

I'd like to see the Mets draft 64 Left Handed Pitchers that can hit and handle a utility role.

[MFS62]

Yeah, yeah, you can never have enough pitching.
BUT, all of these current position players in the minors - Davis, Thole, Fernando Martinez, Capt. Kirk, Havens, Carter, et. al. are lefty batters.
I say the top need is righty hitting prospects, position optional.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

The top need is the best and most talented available players. More specific needs always change by the the time players make it through whatever minor league crucible confronts them.