Standings, 2009

[Guest Edgy DC]

Florida is making another small move in the east, while the Mets have relinquished the wild card for now.

Colrado has absolutely exploded, knocking a ton of net games back off as they move from next to last to the middle of the pack.

NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # Philadelphia 36 25 .590 --- --- --- New York 32 29 .525 4.0 4.0 98 Florida 32 33 .492 6.0 8.0 94 Atlanta 30 32 .482 6.5 9.5 95 Washington 16 45 .262 20.0 63.5 82

NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # San Francisco 34 28 .548 --- --- --- St. Louis 34 30 .531 1.0 1.0 99 New York 32 29 .525 1.5 2.0 100 Cincinnati 31 31 .500 3.0 6.5 98 Chicago 30 30 .500 3.0 6.5 99 Florida 32 33 .492 3.5 9.0 96 Colorado 31 32 .492 3.5 9.0 101 Atlanta 30 32 .482 4.0 11.5 97 Pttsburgh 30 33 .476 4.5 16.5 96 Houston 29 32 .475 4.5 16.5 97 San Diego 28 34 .452 6.0 31.5 95 Arizona 27 37 .422 8.0 53.5 92 Washington 16 45 .262 17.5 167.5 84

[Willets Point]

All thing considered, 4 GB in mid-June ain't too shabby.

[Gwreck]

The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins). I can certainly see the Mets passing them, maybe with a Philly injury and the Mets getting some players back.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The Mets have turn it on, though. One way, and not a crazy one, of looking at "The Phillies aren't as good as they were last year (particularly Lidge and Rollins)," is to realize the Phils sure have the potential to get better.

[Benjamin Grimm]

="metirish (in another thread)":20pgmzma]With 101 games to go what would the Mets need to do realistically the rest of the way? After they fired Willie they went 55-38 in the remaining 93 games . Need to win 60 games?[/quote:20pgmzma] I haven't done this yet this year, but here's what Baseball Prospectus is currently saying: Average wins by position in NL East: 92.7 86.4 80.7 74.6 61.7 92.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 36 25 .514 88.8 73.2 46.66633 14.85141 61.51774 .04575 -1.48791 Mets 32 29 .544 87.7 74.3 41.41762 13.35543 54.77305 .17262 -0.79291 Marlins 32 33 .485 79.3 82.7 6.56945 4.60971 11.17916 .04267 6.61307 Braves 30 32 .485 78.1 83.9 5.33545 3.61399 8.94944 .10715 -7.83416 Nationals 16 45 .456 62.1 99.9 .01115 .00837 .01952 -0.00110 -0.04799 The Dodgers are at 97.4% for the playoffs, 94.3 for the division. The most likely wild card team is Colorado, currently in 3rd place, with 17.4%. (Phillies are the second most likely wild card, followed by the Mets and the Giants.) In the American League, the Red Sox score highest, at 77.8% for the playoffs. Yankees are at 47.0%. They both are about equal for the wild card (at 26 to 27 per cent), but the Red Sox are way ahead for the division, leading 50.4% to 20.6%. I can see why that Orioles fan is boasting, by the way. His team's chances: .05655 division .22353 wild card .28008 overall.

HahnSolo Jun 16 2009 12:45 PM

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 16 2009 12:53 PM

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet. I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

Ashie62 Jun 17 2009 04:52 AM

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 17 2009 05:36 AM

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

Centerfield Jun 17 2009 07:17 AM

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet. I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll] You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence. Benjamin Grimm Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half. Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week. John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first. Edgy DC Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # Philadelphia 37 33 .529 --- --- --- New York 37 34 .521 0.5 0.5 92 Florida 38 36 .514 1.0 1.5 90 Atlanta 34 38 .472 4.0 10.5 88 Washington 21 49 .300 16.0 58.5 77 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # San Francisco 39 32 .549 --- --- --- Milwaukee 38 34 .528 1.5 1.4 99 New York 37 34 .521 2.0 2.5 90 Colorado 37 35 .514 2.5 4.0 89 Florida 38 36 .514 2.5 4.0 88 Cincinnati 35 36 .493 4.0 11.5 88 Chicago 34 35 .493 4.0 11.5 89 Atlanta 34 38 .472 5.5 22.0 86 Houston 33 37 .471 5.5 22.0 87 Pttsburgh 33 39 .458 6.5 31.0 85 San Diego 31 40 .437 8.0 50.5 84 Arizona 30 42 .417 9.5 62.5 82 Washington 21 49 .300 17.5 158.5 75 Willets Point Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM ="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1] That can be interpreted in two different ways: 1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves. 2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place. Gwreck Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM Which do you think it is? Benjamin Grimm Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM Let me rephrase then... Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East. Edgy DC Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM Hey, we're in first place. Edgy DC Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first. The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 43 37 .538 --- --- --- 48.17926 Florida 43 41 .512 2.0 2.0 79 18.79686 New York 39 42 .481 4.5 7.0 78 21.36100 Atlanta 39 43 .476 5.0 8.5 77 11.65843 Washington 24 55 .304 19.0 64.5 64 0.00446 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 45 37 .549 --- --- --- 24.55501 Colorado 43 39 .524 2.0 2.0 79 36.45378 Milwaukee 43 39 .524 2.0 2.0 79 5.20361 Florida 41 39 .513 3.0 5.0 79 2.99581 Chicago 43 41 .512 3.0 5.0 77 3.12304 Cincinnati 40 41 .494 4.5 12.5 77 1.71817 Houston 40 41 .494 4.5 12.5 77 1.13201 New York 39 42 .481 5.5 19.5 76 3.12304 Atlanta 39 43 .476 6.0 23.5 75 2.08225 Pttsburgh 37 46 .446 8.5 46.0 72 0.56024 San Diego 35 47 .427 10.0 61.0 71 0.14075 Arizona 34 49 .410 11.5 77.5 69 0.26129 Washington 24 56 .300 20.0 179.5 62 0.00053 Benjamin Grimm Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second. Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure. But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it. Edgy DC Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks. I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston. Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead. I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead. TransMonk Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM 39-43. This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05. metirish Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days. Edgy DC Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves. Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 48 38 .558 --- --- --- 60.36533 Florida 46 44 .511 4.0 4.0 71 15.70618 Atlanta 43 45 .489 6.0 8.0 70 12.38783 New York 42 45 .483 6.5 9.5 70 11.54009 Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 49 39 .557 --- --- --- 27.11857 Colorado 47 41 .534 2.0 2.0 73 45.51423 Milwaukee 45 43 .511 4.0 6.0 71 2.96857 Florida 46 44 .511 4.0 6.0 40 3.00459 Chicago 43 43 .500 5.0 10.0 71 3.18395 Houston 44 44 .500 5.0 10.0 70 0.71723 Atlanta 43 45 .489 6.0 16.0 69 1.13201 Cincinnati 42 45 .483 6.5 19.5 69 0.68224 New York 42 45 .483 6.5 19.5 69 2.23495 Pttsburgh 38 50 .432 11.0 60.0 64 0.12630 Arizona 38 51 .427 11.5 65.0 62 0.19441 San Diego 36 52 .409 13.0 81.5 62 0.01837 Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 195.5 53 0.00010 Nymr83 Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM ]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058 so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right? Edgy DC Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM Plague years, I believe. Nymr83 Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games. Edgy DC Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off. Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 56 40 .583 --- --- --- 71.92603 Atlanta 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 18.94809 Florida 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 6.65038 New York 46 51 .474 10.5 18.5 56 2.47551 Washington 30 68 .306 27.0 84.5 39 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 54 44 .551 --- --- --- 58.03895 San Francisco 52 46 .531 2.0 2.0 63 9.07787 St. Louis 53 48 .525 2.5 3.0 61 3.54684 Atlanta 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 8.31609 Florida 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 3.47697 Houston 50 48 .510 4.0 8.5 61 0.87862 Milwaukee 49 49 .500 5.0 14.5 60 0.89282 New York 46 51 .474 7.5 32.0 58 0.37380 Cincinnati 44 53 .454 9.5 48.0 56 0.07017 Pttsburgh 43 55 .439 11.0 61.5 54 0.02579 Arizona 43 56 .434 11.5 66.5 53 0.09422 San Diego 38 61 .384 16.5 121.5 48 0.00010 Washington 30 68 .306 24.0 211.5 41 0.00000 Edgy DC Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies. The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is. In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful. Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 58 42 .580 --- --- --- 73.50793 Florida 53 49 .520 6.0 6.0 56 8.16545 Atlanta 52 50 .510 7.0 8.0 55 15.18698 New York 49 52 .485 9.5 15.5 53 3.13963 Washington 32 70 .314 27.0 85.5 35 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 56 46 .549 --- --- --- 18.97177 Colorado 55 47 .539 1.0 1.0 60 45.52084 St. Louis 56 49 .533 1.5 2.0 58 6.05652 Florida 53 49 .520 3.0 6.5 58 4.07728 Atlanta 52 50 .510 4.0 10.5 57 6.77887 Houston 51 51 .500 5.0 15.5 56 0.65272 Milwaukee 51 51 .500 5.0 15.5 56 0.78867 New York 49 52 .485 6.5 26.0 55 0.62566 Cincinnati 45 56 .446 10.5 58.0 51 0.01369 Arizona 44 58 .431 12.0 71.5 49 0.04786 Pttsburgh 43 58 .426 12.5 76.5 49 0.00565 San Diego 41 62 .398 15.5 109.5 45 0.00005 Washington 32 70 .314 24.0 211.5 37 0.00000 Edgy DC Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 56 40 .583 --- --- --- 74.89575 Atlanta 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 13.43997 Florida 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 10.06658 New York 46 51 .474 10.5 18.5 56 1.59770 Washington 30 68 .306 27.0 84.5 39 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 54 44 .551 --- --- --- 58.95294 San Francisco 52 46 .531 2.0 2.0 63 16.21132 St. Louis 53 48 .525 2.5 3.0 61 3.44353 Atlanta 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 2.64151 Florida 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 3.85554 Houston 50 48 .510 4.0 8.5 61 0.39682 Milwaukee 49 49 .500 5.0 14.5 60 0.44886 New York 46 51 .474 7.5 32.0 58 0.12738 Cincinnati 44 53 .454 9.5 48.0 56 0.00121 Pttsburgh 43 55 .439 11.0 61.5 54 0.00172 Arizona 43 56 .434 11.5 66.5 53 0.06649 San Diego 38 61 .384 16.5 121.5 48 0.00031 Washington 30 68 .306 24.0 211.5 41 0.00000 Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032% Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM ="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz] We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives TransMonk Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM ="Edgy DC":1wacunne] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM ="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs] ="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets Edgy DC Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also. San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks. San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 60 45 .571 --- --- --- 75.75257 Florida 55 52 .514 6.0 6.0 51 9.14475 Atlanta 55 53 .509 6.5 7.0 50 14.03328 New York 51 56 .477 10.0 17.5 47 1.06940 Washington 36 72 .333 25.5 79.5 31 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 60 48 .556 --- --- --- 22.82055 Colorado 59 48 .551 0.5 0.5 55 54.46296 St. Louis 59 51 .536 2.0 3.5 54 2.71764 Florida 55 52 .514 4.5 11.0 52 2.38452 Atlanta 55 53 .509 5.0 13.0 51 3.43947 Milwaukee 54 54 .500 6.0 18.0 50 0.41470 Houston 53 55 .491 7.0 24.0 48 0.11615 New York 51 56 .477 8.5 34.5 47 0.27858 Arizona 49 59 .454 11.0 54.5 44 0.11468 Cincinnati 46 61 .430 13.5 77.0 42 0.00048 Pttsburgh 45 62 .421 14.5 87.0 41 0.00063 San Diego 44 65 .404 16.5 109.0 38 0.00000 Washington 36 72 .333 24.0 199.0 31 0.00000 Edgy DC Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy. Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows? Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. Show me something, SHaMs. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 61 48 .560 --- --- --- 58.10719 Florida 58 53 .523 4.0 4.0 49 15.91526 Atlanta 58 54 .518 4.5 5.0 48 25.56209 New York 52 59 .468 10.0 21.5 43 0.41546 Washington 40 72 .357 22.5 71.5 30 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 51.36310 San Francisco 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 18.00222 Chicago 58 51 .532 2.0 4.0 51 4.56220 Florida 58 53 .523 3.0 7.0 49 3.87031 Atlanta 58 54 .518 3.5 9.0 48 4.75462 Houston 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.16014 Milwaukee 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.41311 New York 52 59 .468 9.0 42.5 43 0.08468 Arizona 50 62 .446 11.5 62.5 40 0.03717 Cincinnati 48 62 .436 12.5 71.5 40 0.00078 San Diego 47 66 .416 15.0 96.5 36 0.00003 Pttsburgh 45 66 .405 16.0 107.5 36 0.00000 Washington 40 72 .357 21.5 173.5 30 0.00000 Elster88 Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM ]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. That just depressed the hell out of me. duan Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM i don't know every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together. We've really missed a healthy John Maine. LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM Re: i don't know ="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys] Since mid-2007. Edgy DC Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though. duan Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM ="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg] totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

[HahnSolo]

Oh, god no, not the BP projections! I vowed not to read these after absorbing them for 2 straight Septembers. have mercy on me, Grimm.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet.

I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.

[ashie62]

BP Over 50/50 shot...Was kinda hoping for 80 percent wire to wire..Probably asking to much on my end

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Picked up a game on the whole division last nite.

[Centerfield]

="Benjamin Grimm":wvotfwll]Don't worry, I have no plans to make this a daily feature... yet. I have my doubts right now that the Mets will be involved in a gripping September pennant race anyway.[/quote:wvotfwll] You think they're gonna run away with the division? Wow, that's some confidence.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 25 2009 01:56 PM

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half. Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Jun 25 2009 01:58 PM

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

Edgy DC Jun 25 2009 10:51 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jul 31 2009 07:51 AM

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # Philadelphia 37 33 .529 --- --- --- New York 37 34 .521 0.5 0.5 92 Florida 38 36 .514 1.0 1.5 90 Atlanta 34 38 .472 4.0 10.5 88 Washington 21 49 .300 16.0 58.5 77 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # San Francisco 39 32 .549 --- --- --- Milwaukee 38 34 .528 1.5 1.4 99 New York 37 34 .521 2.0 2.5 90 Colorado 37 35 .514 2.5 4.0 89 Florida 38 36 .514 2.5 4.0 88 Cincinnati 35 36 .493 4.0 11.5 88 Chicago 34 35 .493 4.0 11.5 89 Atlanta 34 38 .472 5.5 22.0 86 Houston 33 37 .471 5.5 22.0 87 Pttsburgh 33 39 .458 6.5 31.0 85 San Diego 31 40 .437 8.0 50.5 84 Arizona 30 42 .417 9.5 62.5 82 Washington 21 49 .300 17.5 158.5 75

Willets Point Jun 25 2009 11:11 PM

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1] That can be interpreted in two different ways: 1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves. 2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place. Gwreck Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM Which do you think it is? Benjamin Grimm Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM Let me rephrase then... Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East. Edgy DC Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM Hey, we're in first place. Edgy DC Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first. The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 43 37 .538 --- --- --- 48.17926 Florida 43 41 .512 2.0 2.0 79 18.79686 New York 39 42 .481 4.5 7.0 78 21.36100 Atlanta 39 43 .476 5.0 8.5 77 11.65843 Washington 24 55 .304 19.0 64.5 64 0.00446 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 45 37 .549 --- --- --- 24.55501 Colorado 43 39 .524 2.0 2.0 79 36.45378 Milwaukee 43 39 .524 2.0 2.0 79 5.20361 Florida 41 39 .513 3.0 5.0 79 2.99581 Chicago 43 41 .512 3.0 5.0 77 3.12304 Cincinnati 40 41 .494 4.5 12.5 77 1.71817 Houston 40 41 .494 4.5 12.5 77 1.13201 New York 39 42 .481 5.5 19.5 76 3.12304 Atlanta 39 43 .476 6.0 23.5 75 2.08225 Pttsburgh 37 46 .446 8.5 46.0 72 0.56024 San Diego 35 47 .427 10.0 61.0 71 0.14075 Arizona 34 49 .410 11.5 77.5 69 0.26129 Washington 24 56 .300 20.0 179.5 62 0.00053 Benjamin Grimm Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second. Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure. But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it. Edgy DC Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks. I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston. Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead. I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead. TransMonk Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM 39-43. This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05. metirish Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days. Edgy DC Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves. Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 48 38 .558 --- --- --- 60.36533 Florida 46 44 .511 4.0 4.0 71 15.70618 Atlanta 43 45 .489 6.0 8.0 70 12.38783 New York 42 45 .483 6.5 9.5 70 11.54009 Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 49 39 .557 --- --- --- 27.11857 Colorado 47 41 .534 2.0 2.0 73 45.51423 Milwaukee 45 43 .511 4.0 6.0 71 2.96857 Florida 46 44 .511 4.0 6.0 40 3.00459 Chicago 43 43 .500 5.0 10.0 71 3.18395 Houston 44 44 .500 5.0 10.0 70 0.71723 Atlanta 43 45 .489 6.0 16.0 69 1.13201 Cincinnati 42 45 .483 6.5 19.5 69 0.68224 New York 42 45 .483 6.5 19.5 69 2.23495 Pttsburgh 38 50 .432 11.0 60.0 64 0.12630 Arizona 38 51 .427 11.5 65.0 62 0.19441 San Diego 36 52 .409 13.0 81.5 62 0.01837 Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 195.5 53 0.00010 Nymr83 Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM ]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058 so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right? Edgy DC Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM Plague years, I believe. Nymr83 Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games. Edgy DC Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off. Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 56 40 .583 --- --- --- 71.92603 Atlanta 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 18.94809 Florida 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 6.65038 New York 46 51 .474 10.5 18.5 56 2.47551 Washington 30 68 .306 27.0 84.5 39 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 54 44 .551 --- --- --- 58.03895 San Francisco 52 46 .531 2.0 2.0 63 9.07787 St. Louis 53 48 .525 2.5 3.0 61 3.54684 Atlanta 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 8.31609 Florida 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 3.47697 Houston 50 48 .510 4.0 8.5 61 0.87862 Milwaukee 49 49 .500 5.0 14.5 60 0.89282 New York 46 51 .474 7.5 32.0 58 0.37380 Cincinnati 44 53 .454 9.5 48.0 56 0.07017 Pttsburgh 43 55 .439 11.0 61.5 54 0.02579 Arizona 43 56 .434 11.5 66.5 53 0.09422 San Diego 38 61 .384 16.5 121.5 48 0.00010 Washington 30 68 .306 24.0 211.5 41 0.00000 Edgy DC Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies. The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is. In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful. Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 58 42 .580 --- --- --- 73.50793 Florida 53 49 .520 6.0 6.0 56 8.16545 Atlanta 52 50 .510 7.0 8.0 55 15.18698 New York 49 52 .485 9.5 15.5 53 3.13963 Washington 32 70 .314 27.0 85.5 35 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 56 46 .549 --- --- --- 18.97177 Colorado 55 47 .539 1.0 1.0 60 45.52084 St. Louis 56 49 .533 1.5 2.0 58 6.05652 Florida 53 49 .520 3.0 6.5 58 4.07728 Atlanta 52 50 .510 4.0 10.5 57 6.77887 Houston 51 51 .500 5.0 15.5 56 0.65272 Milwaukee 51 51 .500 5.0 15.5 56 0.78867 New York 49 52 .485 6.5 26.0 55 0.62566 Cincinnati 45 56 .446 10.5 58.0 51 0.01369 Arizona 44 58 .431 12.0 71.5 49 0.04786 Pttsburgh 43 58 .426 12.5 76.5 49 0.00565 San Diego 41 62 .398 15.5 109.5 45 0.00005 Washington 32 70 .314 24.0 211.5 37 0.00000 Edgy DC Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 56 40 .583 --- --- --- 74.89575 Atlanta 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 13.43997 Florida 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 10.06658 New York 46 51 .474 10.5 18.5 56 1.59770 Washington 30 68 .306 27.0 84.5 39 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 54 44 .551 --- --- --- 58.95294 San Francisco 52 46 .531 2.0 2.0 63 16.21132 St. Louis 53 48 .525 2.5 3.0 61 3.44353 Atlanta 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 2.64151 Florida 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 3.85554 Houston 50 48 .510 4.0 8.5 61 0.39682 Milwaukee 49 49 .500 5.0 14.5 60 0.44886 New York 46 51 .474 7.5 32.0 58 0.12738 Cincinnati 44 53 .454 9.5 48.0 56 0.00121 Pttsburgh 43 55 .439 11.0 61.5 54 0.00172 Arizona 43 56 .434 11.5 66.5 53 0.06649 San Diego 38 61 .384 16.5 121.5 48 0.00031 Washington 30 68 .306 24.0 211.5 41 0.00000 Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032% Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM ="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz] We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives TransMonk Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM ="Edgy DC":1wacunne] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM ="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs] ="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets Edgy DC Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also. San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks. San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 60 45 .571 --- --- --- 75.75257 Florida 55 52 .514 6.0 6.0 51 9.14475 Atlanta 55 53 .509 6.5 7.0 50 14.03328 New York 51 56 .477 10.0 17.5 47 1.06940 Washington 36 72 .333 25.5 79.5 31 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 60 48 .556 --- --- --- 22.82055 Colorado 59 48 .551 0.5 0.5 55 54.46296 St. Louis 59 51 .536 2.0 3.5 54 2.71764 Florida 55 52 .514 4.5 11.0 52 2.38452 Atlanta 55 53 .509 5.0 13.0 51 3.43947 Milwaukee 54 54 .500 6.0 18.0 50 0.41470 Houston 53 55 .491 7.0 24.0 48 0.11615 New York 51 56 .477 8.5 34.5 47 0.27858 Arizona 49 59 .454 11.0 54.5 44 0.11468 Cincinnati 46 61 .430 13.5 77.0 42 0.00048 Pttsburgh 45 62 .421 14.5 87.0 41 0.00063 San Diego 44 65 .404 16.5 109.0 38 0.00000 Washington 36 72 .333 24.0 199.0 31 0.00000 Edgy DC Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy. Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows? Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. Show me something, SHaMs. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 61 48 .560 --- --- --- 58.10719 Florida 58 53 .523 4.0 4.0 49 15.91526 Atlanta 58 54 .518 4.5 5.0 48 25.56209 New York 52 59 .468 10.0 21.5 43 0.41546 Washington 40 72 .357 22.5 71.5 30 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 51.36310 San Francisco 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 18.00222 Chicago 58 51 .532 2.0 4.0 51 4.56220 Florida 58 53 .523 3.0 7.0 49 3.87031 Atlanta 58 54 .518 3.5 9.0 48 4.75462 Houston 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.16014 Milwaukee 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.41311 New York 52 59 .468 9.0 42.5 43 0.08468 Arizona 50 62 .446 11.5 62.5 40 0.03717 Cincinnati 48 62 .436 12.5 71.5 40 0.00078 San Diego 47 66 .416 15.0 96.5 36 0.00003 Pttsburgh 45 66 .405 16.0 107.5 36 0.00000 Washington 40 72 .357 21.5 173.5 30 0.00000 Elster88 Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM ]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. That just depressed the hell out of me. duan Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM i don't know every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together. We've really missed a healthy John Maine. LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM Re: i don't know ="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys] Since mid-2007. Edgy DC Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though. duan Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM ="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg] totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

One game out of first place. If Tampa Bay does us a favor tonight, it'll be only a half.

Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

We got a cupcake at home coming up, I don't see how we could get out of this weekend not in first.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The whole field has truncated since the last update, with expansion brethren Colorado and Florida heating up the most. Even Washington has gained some ground.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
Philadelphia	37	33	.529	---	---	---
New York	37	34	.521	0.5	0.5	92
Florida	38	36	.514	1.0	1.5	90
Atlanta	34	38	.472	4.0	10.5	88
Washington	21	49	.300	16.0	58.5	77

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #
San Francisco	39	32	.549	---	---	---
Milwaukee	38	34	.528	1.5	1.4	99
New York	37	34	.521	2.0	2.5	90
Colorado	37	35	.514	2.5	4.0	89
Florida	38	36	.514	2.5	4.0	88
Cincinnati	35	36	.493	4.0	11.5	88
Chicago	34	35	.493	4.0	11.5	89
Atlanta	34	38	.472	5.5	22.0	86
Houston	33	37	.471	5.5	22.0	87
Pttsburgh	33	39	.458	6.5	31.0	85
San Diego	31	40	.437	8.0	50.5	84
Arizona	30	42	.417	9.5	62.5	82
Washington	21	49	.300	17.5	158.5	75

[Willets Point]

="Benjamin Grimm":3i3p78g1]Perhaps the Mets will leave Philadelphia in first place next week.[/quote:3i3p78g1] That can be interpreted in two different ways: 1. The Mets will depart the city of Philadelphia having gained first place for themselves. 2. The Mets will lose and thus the team from Philadelphia will remain in sole possession of first place.

Gwreck Jun 25 2009 11:31 PM

Which do you think it is?

Benjamin Grimm Jun 26 2009 05:45 AM

Let me rephrase then... Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

Edgy DC Jun 26 2009 08:45 PM

Hey, we're in first place.

Edgy DC Jul 07 2009 06:11 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 07 2009 07:18 AM

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first. The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 43 37 .538 --- --- --- 48.17926 Florida 43 41 .512 2.0 2.0 79 18.79686 New York 39 42 .481 4.5 7.0 78 21.36100 Atlanta 39 43 .476 5.0 8.5 77 11.65843 Washington 24 55 .304 19.0 64.5 64 0.00446 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 45 37 .549 --- --- --- 24.55501 Colorado 43 39 .524 2.0 2.0 79 36.45378 Milwaukee 43 39 .524 2.0 2.0 79 5.20361 Florida 41 39 .513 3.0 5.0 79 2.99581 Chicago 43 41 .512 3.0 5.0 77 3.12304 Cincinnati 40 41 .494 4.5 12.5 77 1.71817 Houston 40 41 .494 4.5 12.5 77 1.13201 New York 39 42 .481 5.5 19.5 76 3.12304 Atlanta 39 43 .476 6.0 23.5 75 2.08225 Pttsburgh 37 46 .446 8.5 46.0 72 0.56024 San Diego 35 47 .427 10.0 61.0 71 0.14075 Arizona 34 49 .410 11.5 77.5 69 0.26129 Washington 24 56 .300 20.0 179.5 62 0.00053

Benjamin Grimm Jul 07 2009 06:51 AM

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second. Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure. But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

Edgy DC Jul 07 2009 07:22 AM

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks. I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston. Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead. I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

TransMonk Jul 08 2009 08:07 AM

39-43. This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

metirish Jul 08 2009 08:09 AM

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

Edgy DC Jul 13 2009 08:23 AM

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves. Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 48 38 .558 --- --- --- 60.36533 Florida 46 44 .511 4.0 4.0 71 15.70618 Atlanta 43 45 .489 6.0 8.0 70 12.38783 New York 42 45 .483 6.5 9.5 70 11.54009 Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 49 39 .557 --- --- --- 27.11857 Colorado 47 41 .534 2.0 2.0 73 45.51423 Milwaukee 45 43 .511 4.0 6.0 71 2.96857 Florida 46 44 .511 4.0 6.0 40 3.00459 Chicago 43 43 .500 5.0 10.0 71 3.18395 Houston 44 44 .500 5.0 10.0 70 0.71723 Atlanta 43 45 .489 6.0 16.0 69 1.13201 Cincinnati 42 45 .483 6.5 19.5 69 0.68224 New York 42 45 .483 6.5 19.5 69 2.23495 Pttsburgh 38 50 .432 11.0 60.0 64 0.12630 Arizona 38 51 .427 11.5 65.0 62 0.19441 San Diego 36 52 .409 13.0 81.5 62 0.01837 Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 195.5 53 0.00010

Nymr83 Jul 13 2009 08:50 AM

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058 so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

Edgy DC Jul 13 2009 08:56 AM

Plague years, I believe.

Nymr83 Jul 13 2009 08:59 AM

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

Edgy DC Jul 27 2009 02:02 PM

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off. Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 56 40 .583 --- --- --- 71.92603 Atlanta 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 18.94809 Florida 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 6.65038 New York 46 51 .474 10.5 18.5 56 2.47551 Washington 30 68 .306 27.0 84.5 39 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 54 44 .551 --- --- --- 58.03895 San Francisco 52 46 .531 2.0 2.0 63 9.07787 St. Louis 53 48 .525 2.5 3.0 61 3.54684 Atlanta 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 8.31609 Florida 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 3.47697 Houston 50 48 .510 4.0 8.5 61 0.87862 Milwaukee 49 49 .500 5.0 14.5 60 0.89282 New York 46 51 .474 7.5 32.0 58 0.37380 Cincinnati 44 53 .454 9.5 48.0 56 0.07017 Pttsburgh 43 55 .439 11.0 61.5 54 0.02579 Arizona 43 56 .434 11.5 66.5 53 0.09422 San Diego 38 61 .384 16.5 121.5 48 0.00010 Washington 30 68 .306 24.0 211.5 41 0.00000

Edgy DC Jul 31 2009 07:45 AM

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies. The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is. In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful. Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 58 42 .580 --- --- --- 73.50793 Florida 53 49 .520 6.0 6.0 56 8.16545 Atlanta 52 50 .510 7.0 8.0 55 15.18698 New York 49 52 .485 9.5 15.5 53 3.13963 Washington 32 70 .314 27.0 85.5 35 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 56 46 .549 --- --- --- 18.97177 Colorado 55 47 .539 1.0 1.0 60 45.52084 St. Louis 56 49 .533 1.5 2.0 58 6.05652 Florida 53 49 .520 3.0 6.5 58 4.07728 Atlanta 52 50 .510 4.0 10.5 57 6.77887 Houston 51 51 .500 5.0 15.5 56 0.65272 Milwaukee 51 51 .500 5.0 15.5 56 0.78867 New York 49 52 .485 6.5 26.0 55 0.62566 Cincinnati 45 56 .446 10.5 58.0 51 0.01369 Arizona 44 58 .431 12.0 71.5 49 0.04786 Pttsburgh 43 58 .426 12.5 76.5 49 0.00565 San Diego 41 62 .398 15.5 109.5 45 0.00005 Washington 32 70 .314 24.0 211.5 37 0.00000

Edgy DC Aug 04 2009 12:41 PM

NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 56 40 .583 --- --- --- 74.89575 Atlanta 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 13.43997 Florida 51 48 .515 6.5 6.5 59 10.06658 New York 46 51 .474 10.5 18.5 56 1.59770 Washington 30 68 .306 27.0 84.5 39 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 54 44 .551 --- --- --- 58.95294 San Francisco 52 46 .531 2.0 2.0 63 16.21132 St. Louis 53 48 .525 2.5 3.0 61 3.44353 Atlanta 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 2.64151 Florida 51 48 .515 3.5 6.0 61 3.85554 Houston 50 48 .510 4.0 8.5 61 0.39682 Milwaukee 49 49 .500 5.0 14.5 60 0.44886 New York 46 51 .474 7.5 32.0 58 0.12738 Cincinnati 44 53 .454 9.5 48.0 56 0.00121 Pttsburgh 43 55 .439 11.0 61.5 54 0.00172 Arizona 43 56 .434 11.5 66.5 53 0.06649 San Diego 38 61 .384 16.5 121.5 48 0.00031 Washington 30 68 .306 24.0 211.5 41 0.00000 Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%

Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 12:50 PM

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz] We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives TransMonk Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM ="Edgy DC":1wacunne] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM ="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs] ="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets Edgy DC Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also. San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks. San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 60 45 .571 --- --- --- 75.75257 Florida 55 52 .514 6.0 6.0 51 9.14475 Atlanta 55 53 .509 6.5 7.0 50 14.03328 New York 51 56 .477 10.0 17.5 47 1.06940 Washington 36 72 .333 25.5 79.5 31 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 60 48 .556 --- --- --- 22.82055 Colorado 59 48 .551 0.5 0.5 55 54.46296 St. Louis 59 51 .536 2.0 3.5 54 2.71764 Florida 55 52 .514 4.5 11.0 52 2.38452 Atlanta 55 53 .509 5.0 13.0 51 3.43947 Milwaukee 54 54 .500 6.0 18.0 50 0.41470 Houston 53 55 .491 7.0 24.0 48 0.11615 New York 51 56 .477 8.5 34.5 47 0.27858 Arizona 49 59 .454 11.0 54.5 44 0.11468 Cincinnati 46 61 .430 13.5 77.0 42 0.00048 Pttsburgh 45 62 .421 14.5 87.0 41 0.00063 San Diego 44 65 .404 16.5 109.0 38 0.00000 Washington 36 72 .333 24.0 199.0 31 0.00000 Edgy DC Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy. Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows? Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. Show me something, SHaMs. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 61 48 .560 --- --- --- 58.10719 Florida 58 53 .523 4.0 4.0 49 15.91526 Atlanta 58 54 .518 4.5 5.0 48 25.56209 New York 52 59 .468 10.0 21.5 43 0.41546 Washington 40 72 .357 22.5 71.5 30 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 51.36310 San Francisco 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 18.00222 Chicago 58 51 .532 2.0 4.0 51 4.56220 Florida 58 53 .523 3.0 7.0 49 3.87031 Atlanta 58 54 .518 3.5 9.0 48 4.75462 Houston 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.16014 Milwaukee 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.41311 New York 52 59 .468 9.0 42.5 43 0.08468 Arizona 50 62 .446 11.5 62.5 40 0.03717 Cincinnati 48 62 .436 12.5 71.5 40 0.00078 San Diego 47 66 .416 15.0 96.5 36 0.00003 Pttsburgh 45 66 .405 16.0 107.5 36 0.00000 Washington 40 72 .357 21.5 173.5 30 0.00000 Elster88 Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM ]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. That just depressed the hell out of me. duan Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM i don't know every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together. We've really missed a healthy John Maine. LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM Re: i don't know ="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys] Since mid-2007. Edgy DC Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though. duan Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM ="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg] totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.

[Gwreck]

Which do you think it is?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Let me rephrase then...

Perhaps the Mets, upon their departure from Philadelphia next week, will find themselves with the best record in the National League East.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Hey, we're in first place.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Wow, I haven't posted since the Mets were in first.

The good news is that, in the day and a half since the Mets last played (and lost), they have passed two teams (one intradivision) in the standings. The bad news is that the sterategy of moving ahead by not playing isn't very sustainable.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	43	37	.538	---	---	---	48.17926
Florida	43	41	.512	2.0	2.0	79	18.79686
New York	39	42	.481	4.5	7.0	78	21.36100
Atlanta	39	43	.476	5.0	8.5	77	11.65843
Washington	24	55	.304	19.0	64.5	64	0.00446

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	45	37	.549	---	---	---	24.55501
Colorado	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	36.45378
Milwaukee	43	39	.524	2.0	2.0	79	5.20361
Florida	41	39	.513	3.0	5.0	79	2.99581
Chicago	43	41	.512	3.0	5.0	77	3.12304
Cincinnati	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.71817
Houston	40	41	.494	4.5	12.5	77	1.13201
New York	39	42	.481	5.5	19.5	76	3.12304
Atlanta	39	43	.476	6.0	23.5	75	2.08225
Pttsburgh	37	46	.446	8.5	46.0	72	0.56024
San Diego	35	47	.427	10.0	61.0	71	0.14075
Arizona	34	49	.410	11.5	77.5	69	0.26129
Washington	24	56	.300	20.0	179.5	62	0.00053

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yikes... eighth place in the Wild Card race? Just a few weeks ago they were in first or second.

Things look pretty grim, but not so bad that a sustained hot streak wouldn't cure.

But is this team capable of a sustained hot streak? Sure doesn't look like it.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The overlooked here continues to be the turnabout Colorado had had over the last few weeks.

I ain't telling you what to believe, but if you want to still root, take it one team at a time. Root for the Mets, and root like heck against Houston.

Once they pass Houston, the Astros become the Mets allies in helping them pick off the teams ahead.

I'm not going to tell you it's not a slog ahead.

[TransMonk]

39-43.

This is the first time the Mets have been 4 games under .500 since 9/17/05.

[metirish]

The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The pattern of fortune's vunlerability to change dramatically each day in the NL East lends an air of bigitude to the Mets upcoming series with the Braves.

Is anybody in the press noticing the extended surge of the Rockies? Look how dramatically they lead without leading in the wildcard race.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	48	38	.558	---	---	---	60.36533
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	4.0	71	15.70618
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	8.0	70	12.38783
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	9.5	70	11.54009
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	73.5	54	0.00058

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	49	39	.557	---	---	---	27.11857
Colorado	47	41	.534	2.0	2.0	73	45.51423
Milwaukee	45	43	.511	4.0	6.0	71	2.96857
Florida	46	44	.511	4.0	6.0	40	3.00459
Chicago	43	43	.500	5.0	10.0	71	3.18395
Houston	44	44	.500	5.0	10.0	70	0.71723
Atlanta	43	45	.489	6.0	16.0	69	1.13201
Cincinnati	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	0.68224
New York	42	45	.483	6.5	19.5	69	2.23495
Pttsburgh	38	50	.432	11.0	60.0	64	0.12630
Arizona	38	51	.427	11.5	65.0	62	0.19441
San Diego	36	52	.409	13.0	81.5	62	0.01837
Washington	26	61	.299	22.5	195.5	53	0.00010

[nymr83]

]Washington 26 61 .299 22.5 73.5 54 0.00058

so they'll win the division 6 times out of 1,000,000? that takes into account the chances that they trade for Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum, Hanley Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, and Zack Greinke all before the end of the day, right?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Plague years, I believe.

[nymr83]

I also did not take into account the chances that the Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Phillies would all get paid off to lose the rest of their games.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Chicago --- recently compared to the Mets as far as being disappointing --- has re-asserted themselves and edged ahead of the Cards, thought St. Louis still is shown as more likely to win the division according to Baseball Prospectus. The Mets series win helped put a brake on a long streaking period by Houston climbing the standings, and it also allowed them to pass Cincinnati. So the Reds are now one of the teams you are allowed to root for. Milwaukee is sliding and their the next team we are looking for the Mets to pick off.

Washington is eliminated from both races to the fifth decimal place of a percentage point.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	71.92603
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	18.94809
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	6.65038
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	2.47551
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.03895
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	9.07787
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.54684
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	8.31609
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.47697
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.87862
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.89282
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.37380
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.07017
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.02579
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.09422
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00010
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

[Guest Edgy DC]

Not a lot of movement during the series, except, you know, the Mets knocked Colorado off the top perch in the Wild Card race. No matter, says Baseball Prospectus, who is still doubling down on the Rockies.

The Mets are only a game closer to the top, but cut their net gap from 32 to 26, so that's good. Similarly, they pulled three games closer in the Net column in the division race, such as it is.

In other words, this run has been nice, but it has to be sustained to be meaningful.

Catching Milwaukee and/or Houston over the next few days would be very meaningful.

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	58	42	.580	---	---	---	73.50793
Florida	53	49	.520	6.0	6.0	56	8.16545
Atlanta	52	50	.510	7.0	8.0	55	15.18698
New York	49	52	.485	9.5	15.5	53	3.13963
Washington	32	70	.314	27.0	85.5	35	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
San Francisco	56	46	.549	---	---	---	18.97177
Colorado	55	47	.539	1.0	1.0	60	45.52084
St. Louis	56	49	.533	1.5	2.0	58	6.05652
Florida	53	49	.520	3.0	6.5	58	4.07728
Atlanta	52	50	.510	4.0	10.5	57	6.77887
Houston	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.65272
Milwaukee	51	51	.500	5.0	15.5	56	0.78867
New York	49	52	.485	6.5	26.0	55	0.62566
Cincinnati	45	56	.446	10.5	58.0	51	0.01369
Arizona	44	58	.431	12.0	71.5	49	0.04786
Pttsburgh	43	58	.426	12.5	76.5	49	0.00565
San Diego	41	62	.398	15.5	109.5	45	0.00005
Washington	32	70	.314	24.0	211.5	37	0.00000

[Guest Edgy DC]

NL East
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Philadelphia	56	40	.583	---	---	---	74.89575
Atlanta	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	13.43997
Florida	51	48	.515	6.5	6.5	59	10.06658
New York	46	51	.474	10.5	18.5	56	1.59770
Washington	30	68	.306	27.0	84.5	39	0.00000

NL Wildcard
Team	W	L	%	GB	Net GB	Elim. #	BP % Champs
Colorado	54	44	.551	---	---	---	58.95294
San Francisco	52	46	.531	2.0	2.0	63	16.21132
St. Louis	53	48	.525	2.5	3.0	61	3.44353
Atlanta	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	2.64151
Florida	51	48	.515	3.5	6.0	61	3.85554
Houston	50	48	.510	4.0	8.5	61	0.39682
Milwaukee	49	49	.500	5.0	14.5	60	0.44886
New York	46	51	.474	7.5	32.0	58	0.12738
Cincinnati	44	53	.454	9.5	48.0	56	0.00121
Pttsburgh	43	55	.439	11.0	61.5	54	0.00172
Arizona	43	56	.434	11.5	66.5	53	0.06649
San Diego	38	61	.384	16.5	121.5	48	0.00031
Washington	30	68	.306	24.0	211.5	41	0.00000

Net Met Post-Season Likelihood:
1.47032%

[ashie62]

="metirish":37imwhfz]The Mets are losers of nine of their last eleven games. I expect to be in fourth place in the next few days.[/quote:37imwhfz] We have a winner! Give the man a set of steaknives

TransMonk Aug 04 2009 12:51 PM

="Edgy DC":1wacunne] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1wacunne] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing. Ashie62 Aug 04 2009 01:00 PM ="TransMonk":1oi9gbzs] ="Edgy DC":1oi9gbzs] Net Met Post-Season Likelihood: 1.47032%[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Met Post-Season Likelihood on Sept 12, 2007: 99.80% Stranger things have happened. Stranger and far more depressing.[/quote:1oi9gbzs] Wow** Strangely that just made my day. After all they are the Amazin Mets Edgy DC Aug 06 2009 08:06 AM Well, that lousy loss the night before last burns the Mets badly as their net post-season odds dip toward the 1% mark. Milwaukee moves up a bit, so the Mets have to eye Houston first, but you know, the Fish are slipping also. San Fran re-takes the top wildcard slot, but Baseball Prospectus still is totally not impressed. They love the Rocks. San Diego joins the Nats among teams not shouldered with the burden of a visible post-season possiblity. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 60 45 .571 --- --- --- 75.75257 Florida 55 52 .514 6.0 6.0 51 9.14475 Atlanta 55 53 .509 6.5 7.0 50 14.03328 New York 51 56 .477 10.0 17.5 47 1.06940 Washington 36 72 .333 25.5 79.5 31 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs San Francisco 60 48 .556 --- --- --- 22.82055 Colorado 59 48 .551 0.5 0.5 55 54.46296 St. Louis 59 51 .536 2.0 3.5 54 2.71764 Florida 55 52 .514 4.5 11.0 52 2.38452 Atlanta 55 53 .509 5.0 13.0 51 3.43947 Milwaukee 54 54 .500 6.0 18.0 50 0.41470 Houston 53 55 .491 7.0 24.0 48 0.11615 New York 51 56 .477 8.5 34.5 47 0.27858 Arizona 49 59 .454 11.0 54.5 44 0.11468 Cincinnati 46 61 .430 13.5 77.0 42 0.00048 Pttsburgh 45 62 .421 14.5 87.0 41 0.00063 San Diego 44 65 .404 16.5 109.0 38 0.00000 Washington 36 72 .333 24.0 199.0 31 0.00000 Edgy DC Aug 10 2009 07:57 PM The Mets are Santa Claus right now, giving hope to all the poor children, first Arizona, then San Diego, who actually has come back from having no chance of winning within five decimal places of a percentage point. Mercy. Not so resuscitated is Washington, who despite winning a fuky eight straight, still aren't showing any numbers but goose eggs, but they've closed their wild card gap from 199 net games to 173. Another seven months at this pace and who knows? Normally I'd cheer the Nats onward, reasoning that any success by a team behind the Mets in the standings helps the Mets pick off opponents, but this week stank so solidly that I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. Show me something, SHaMs. NL East Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Philadelphia 61 48 .560 --- --- --- 58.10719 Florida 58 53 .523 4.0 4.0 49 15.91526 Atlanta 58 54 .518 4.5 5.0 48 25.56209 New York 52 59 .468 10.0 21.5 43 0.41546 Washington 40 72 .357 22.5 71.5 30 0.00000 NL Wildcard Team W L % GB Net GB Elim. # BP % Champs Colorado 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 51.36310 San Francisco 61 50 .550 --- --- --- 18.00222 Chicago 58 51 .532 2.0 4.0 51 4.56220 Florida 58 53 .523 3.0 7.0 49 3.87031 Atlanta 58 54 .518 3.5 9.0 48 4.75462 Houston 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.16014 Milwaukee 55 56 .495 6.0 21.5 46 0.41311 New York 52 59 .468 9.0 42.5 43 0.08468 Arizona 50 62 .446 11.5 62.5 40 0.03717 Cincinnati 48 62 .436 12.5 71.5 40 0.00078 San Diego 47 66 .416 15.0 96.5 36 0.00003 Pttsburgh 45 66 .405 16.0 107.5 36 0.00000 Washington 40 72 .357 21.5 173.5 30 0.00000 Elster88 Aug 10 2009 08:55 PM ]I view Washington's success as a threat by them to somehow catch the Mets in the standings. That just depressed the hell out of me. duan Aug 11 2009 05:34 AM i don't know every time they look like they *just might* put something together that'd mean they'd claw their way TOWARDS being at least able to duke it out in September they lose two straight and fall back off. I'm still cool with saying if they go 13-6 or something in the remaining August games they'll be well in it, but there's only so many times they can fail to actually have one of those runs and still be able to put enough of them together. We've really missed a healthy John Maine. LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Aug 11 2009 12:06 PM Re: i don't know ="duan":exl5k9ys]We've really missed a healthy John Maine.[/quote:exl5k9ys] Since mid-2007. Edgy DC Aug 11 2009 12:53 PM We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though. duan Aug 11 2009 05:08 PM ="Edgy DC":20movskg]We've missed three batsmen a bunch more though.[/quote:20movskg] totally, it's just that Pelfrey & Hernandez seem to alternate good & bad outings and whoever's in the 4th & 5th slots is usually pretty junky so on the days where we don't score 7 runs we lose more then half the time. I sorta feel if we just had one more stable starter we'd be close to .500 now and if the batters came back could make a go of it.