"If I ain't starting, I'm departing."

[metsmarathon]

7 starts into 2005, heilman had about a 4.7 era (excluding 3.1 innings of runless relief mixed in)

7 starts into 2008, mike pelfrey had a 5 era.

i think we also tend to forget that heilman had a number of good outings for us this year, and turned out to have been nursing a knee injury the whole while.

not for nothing, but the schaeffer results do tell us that the sum of his positive outings was greater than any other reliever. he had a number of clunkers, true, but which do you think is more the measure of his worth? the handful of true clunker outings this year, or the three prior years of good to stellar relief?

all i'm sayin' is, its freakin' early and inaccurate to write off his career as "he sucked, does suck, and will always suck"

we'd be fools to dump him. i hesitate, now, to put him in the rotation as more than a fifth starter, but only because i don't know that he can start having spent so many years in the pen, and i'm concerned enough about maine that i want a reliable fifth guy. but others, such as looper, have made the transition well enough. i would grant him his wish to be traded if the return were suitable to replace him in our pen.

i would, hedging my bets here, also think that he could be given the chance to compete for a starting spot in spring training, and if we need to fill in for an injury, open the season with him, or allow it to be a tryout for another club. if it doesn't work out - him having the length to start - put him right back in the pen.

[Zvon]

="Nymr83"] what evidence is there that he would be a more effective option, as a starter, than either a FA acquisition, a trade acquisition, or a minor leaguer currently in the organization?

I'm all for an acquisition through market or trade.
If it's a proven successful starter, I'd even rather go that route.
But if they don't do that and there's a spot open....

I figure Perez and Hernandez are gone, so the way things stand now I consider Niese as part of the rotation.

You think they should give the open spot to Brandon Knight?
Now I can see why Heilman is insulted.

I know this is really not a good point business wise but Heilman has always wanted to be a starter.
For this team, he has always done whats been asked of him and he has paid his dues.
It's a fact he can pitch at the major league level.
He should be given what he requests.
A shot at a spot or a trade.

If we do acquire a real starter I have no problem with Neise and Heilman
trying out for that 5th spot during the spring.
And if Aaron gets it Neise can be a nice fallback should he fail.

[Gwreck]

I view Heilman as an extremely valuable reliever who had a bad year. His results in 2005-2007 show him to be an excellent-to-outstanding reliever, and I think the point about Heilman having many quality innings in 2008 is a valid one.

It's too bad the moronic fans ruined things.

[nymr83]

too many people to respond to...

]I really can't see this as anything other than Heilman's agent doing his job and maximizing his client's value.

thats fine, but i thought we were talking about this from the perspective of what a fan who enjoys winning wants to see the team do about it.

]The point in the Pelfrey comparison is not to say that they're the same pitcher (or are going to be) but that the "failed" part of their starting careers were about the same sample size.

the comparison fails because of the different ages and points into their professional careers where they were then.

]not for nothing, but the schaeffer results do tell us that the sum of his positive outings was greater than any other reliever. he had a number of clunkers, true, but which do you think is more the measure of his worth? the handful of true clunker outings this year, or the three prior years of good to stellar relief?

or maybe the schaffer results tell us that he pitched well in games where nobody else deserved points while Smith, Stokes, Wagner, whoever pitched well in games where David Wright hit a homerun and John Maine went 7 innings with 1 run, schaffer is hardly a reliable anything
its not at all fair to try and pull out his bad outings, they are part of who he was and he walked a hell of alot of batters, thats more indicative than anything else.
why should the prior years count more? if i'm projecting a guy for 2009 i'm looking at something like 55% 2008, 30% 2007, 15% 2006 with adjustments made for age, ballpark, injuries, etc.

]I figure Perez and Hernandez are gone, so the way things stand now I consider Niese as part of the rotation.

Hernandez wasn't part of the '08 team anyway so whats he got to do with anything? right now you have 1 guy (perez) who needs replacing and 1 more spot (the spot that was filled by Martinez + a managerie of spot starters)

]I know this is really not a good point business wise but Heilman has always wanted to be a starter. For this team, he has always done whats been asked of him and he has paid his dues. It's a fact he can pitch at the major league level. He should be given what he requests. A shot at a spot or a trade.

thats not a good point baseball wise forgetting business.
i don't believe in "paying your dues" you get "paid your money" so shutup and do as you're told.
it's fact that he has never pitched succesfully as a MLB starter and its fact that he's coming off a terrible year.
he shouldn't be given what he requests, he should be given precisely what is best for the New York Mets winning as many baseball games as possible in 2009.

]It's too bad the moronic fans ruined things.

yeah, its the fans fault that he walks people and gives up homers. thats blaming the victims.

[duan]

I hated the line of
"he's too important to the bullpen"
the fact of the matter is a bullpen arm is a lot less expensive to replace then a starting one.
Ryan Dempster's getting a $52 million contract on the basis of last seasons starting stats, not on his bullpen performance of the previous 3 years or so. The best 2/3 relievers in the market will be lucky to get in the that range.

So if you will, be Aaron Heillman and compare your career arcs to Mr Dempsters and see whether in two years time you'd prefer to have had a decent run at starting to see whether you could be as good a starter as you were a reliever in 06 & 07

[metsmarathon]

]why should the prior years count more? if i'm projecting a guy for 2009 i'm looking at something like 55% 2008, 30% 2007, 15% 2006 with adjustments made for age, ballpark, injuries, etc.

well, if we give him no credit whatsoever for being injured last year, the above formula gives us the following approximate line:

80.2 IP
74 H
38 ER
9 HR
36 BB
74 SO
4.26 ERA

which strikes me as at least serviceable, and definitely not "sucks"

[Frayed Knot]

]the comparison fails because of the different ages and points into their professional careers where they were then

It's not perfect, but also not as huge as you're making it out to be.
Yes, Heilman was two years older than Pelfrey during his early days as a starter (although Pelfrey was a pro earlier on accout of being drafted as a College Jr. rather than as a Sr.) but the results as a starter over pieces of their first 3 seasons aren't all that dissimilar:
AH: 135 IP, 5.85 ERA; 1.49 WHiP
MP: 150 IP; 5.34 ERA; 1.71 WHiP

And, again, I'm not trying to claim that they're the same pitcher or paint a rosy picture of Heilman's 2008 season (he stunk) but rather I'm against this idea of relying solely on limited data from that early in a career to show that he not only wasn't good at it but also as 'proof' that he never can be.
Apply that same standard to Pelfrey or just about any other young pitcher and a big chunk of hurlers in MLB would never have been given the chance to get to where they got.


I think the death of Heilman as a starter was more a product of Peterson's reaction to his pitching motion than it was due to his early career struggles.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Limited data is limited data whether you're 22 or 32.

I'd like to have seen Heilman get a start or two or three last year to see if it helped him make the adjustments he needed to make. If he did modestly well, it might have made him a better releiver. If he did very well, we'd have an opportunity.

As it was, he threw the most dis-spiriting ball four since Kenny Rogers.