2008 CPF Ranking Thread

Frayed Knot · October 5, 2008

The list of candidates:

Hitters (26) listed by plate appearances:
J.Reyes - Wright - Beltran - Delgado - Schneider
Castillo - Church - Easley - Tatis - Chavez
Castro - Anderson - Murphy - A.Reyes - Evans
Pagan - Casanova - Alou - Cancel - Nixon
Aguila - R.Martinez - Clark - Molina - Phillips
Nunez

Pitchers (24) by innings pitched:
Santana - Pelfrey - Perez - Maine - Martinez
Heilman - Smith - Sanchez -Schoeneweis - Feliciano
Wagner - Figueroa - Vargas - Stokes - Muniz
Sosa - Ayala - Niese - Knight - Armas
Wise - Parnell - Rincon - Kunz

A few notes to any newbies or part-timers who haven't seen this before and want to participate; since this, like our daily PotG poll, is part of an ongoing project it's one of the few places where we have some actual rules.
What we do is choose the top 30 players from the 50 available on this year's team and rank them from best (30) to worst (1) based on their contributions to this year's team. Anyone or everyone is invited to submit a list of their own..
How you come up with such a list (numbers crunching, gut feeling, Ouija Board) is up to you although you should be prepared to explain and/or defend your choices if your logic (or your IQ) is questioned. Also remember that it's actual contributions to this year's team and that we're not grading on a curve. So no one's rank should be raised or lowered based on how he did in relation to his reputation or contract; or on speculation as to how he would have done if only the stupid manager played him more; or based on how bright a future you think he has with the club.

Unlike our PotG project, this one isn't just a simple case of tabulating quick votes. Instead, it becomes an ongoing discussion in an attempt to reach some sort of consensus and we'll usually keep this thread going as long as there's enough activity to warrant it. If you don't want to submit an entire list you can still join in critiquing the lists of others.
Or you can just ignore the whole thing altogether, what do we care?

Frayed Knot · October 5, 2008

I haven't concocted a whole list yet, but I think it's safe to say that the top six this year, in one order or another, are going to be: Santana, Beltran, Delgado, Wright, Reyes & Pelfrey.
The four hitters no only all played 159+ games this season but had over 100 Runs Created while no one else on the team even reached 50 - the gap was that huge.
On the pitching side it's not quite so massive but I'd still argue that Santana & Pelfrey are significantly ahead of the rest of the pack.
So then the question remains as to the order. I'm going with this one.

30 - Santana
A CY-caliber season (whether he actually wins it or not) which kept getting better as the games got tighter

29 - Wright
Took some hits for coming up small in certain clutch spots, but still topped the team in BA, OBA, SLG, XBHs, RBI, BB, 2Bs, Sac Flies, & Runs Created, plus played some terrific defense despite the occasional case of scatter-arm

28 - Beltran
27 - Reyes
This one was a virtual dead-heat in my mind. Reyes had a higher BA & steals while Beltran better OBA, SLG and SB% . Both had 72 XBHs and were a toss-up in Runs created
I'm giving Beltran the edge based on Reyes's weak September (again!) and I think Carlos played a better CF than Jose did at SS

26 - Delgado
Second half MVP no doubt and a barrel full of huge hits, but the first half counts too as does defense at his position

25 - Pelfrey
A rough start and maybe started to tire towards the end but, in between, he showed why he was a top pick

October 5, 2008

The dropoff from my fourth best offensive Met (Delgado) to the fifth (Church) is quite precipitous. Quite.

Once I factor in defense, Schneider may displace Churchie, but cliff point remains.

Edited October 5, 2008 by Guest

Gwreck · October 5, 2008

I'm not saying I necessarily agree with this list, but to throw into the discussion, here's the 2008 Mets ranked by Win Shares[/url:1p1gygzr]

1. Beltran 33
2t. Wright 29
2t. Reyes 29
4. Delgado 24
5. Santana 21
6. Tatis 14
7. Pelfrey 12
8t. Schneider 10
8t. Church 10
10. Wagner 8
11t. Castillo 8
11t. Perez 8
13t. Easley 7
13t. Castro 7
15t. Murphy 6
15t. Maine 6
17. Smith 5
18t. Sanchez 4
18t. Schoeneweis 4
20t. Pagan 3
20t. Stokes 3
20t. Chavez 3
20t. Feliciano 3
24t. Alou 2
24t. Evans 2
24t. Casanova 2
27t. Heilman 1
27t. Muniz 1
27t. Vargas 1
27t. Figueroa 1
27t. Martinez 1

TransMonk · October 6, 2008

My list...probably not perfect, but just how I see it:

30 Johan Santana
29 David Wright
28 Carlos Beltran
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 John Maine
22 Fernando Tatis
21 Brian Schneider
20 Ryan Church
19 Damion Easley
18 Billy Wagner
17 Pedro Martinez
16 Joe Smith
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Luis Castillo
13 Daniel Murphy
12 Endy Chavez
11 Aaron Heilman
10 Duaner Sanchez
9 Pedro Feliciano
8 Ramon Castro
7 Nick Evans
6 Nelson Figueroa
5 Brian Stokes
4 Marlon Anderson
3 Claudio Vargas
2 Angel Pagan
1 Robinson Cancel

OE: Chavez moved from 18 to 12.
OE2: Flipped Pelfrey and Reyes.

Edited October 6, 2008 by Guest

October 6, 2008

Guys who were more or less available all year from that list:

30 Johan Santana
29 David Wright
28 Carlos Beltran
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Mike Pelfrey
25 Jose Reyes
24 Oliver Perez

15 Joe Smith
14 Scott Schoeneweis

11 Aaron Heilman

9 Pedro Feliciano

Vic Sage · October 6, 2008

what's a good website where i can cut and paste the season's stats into a spreadsheet?

i tried Yahoo, but the numbers don't import as numbers, so i can't use formulas or sort it without retyping the whole thing. I tried Baseball reference, but each line of stats is a single cell of text.

Benjamin Grimm · October 6, 2008

I do my pasting from here:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/teams/stats/2008/mets/0_batting.html

Which browser are you using? When you paste into a spreadsheet, it seems to work better if you're coming from Internet Explorer than if you're coming from Firefox. When I paste from Firefox I paste first into a text editor and from there, copy again and paste into Excel.

Vic Sage · October 6, 2008

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Perez
23. Wagner
22. Tatis
21. Church
20. Maine
19. Murphy
18. Schneider
17. Smith
16. Easley
15. Castillo
14. Castro
13. Sanchez
12. Schoeneweis
11. Chavez
10. P.Martinez
09. Ayala
08. Heilman
07. Evans
06. Feliciano
05. Stokes
04. Pagan
03. Cancel
02. Figueroa
01. R.Martinez

Edited October 6, 2008 by Guest

Frayed Knot · October 7, 2008

Hitters:
(from above) Wright - Beltran - Reyes - Delgado

then:

Tatis
Church
No one would have predicted this order a month into the season, but Tatis's edge in the B/O/S stats plus more XBHs, fewer Ks & fewer GiDPs in slightly fewer ABs makes up for the difference in OF defense.

Schneider
Better second half somewhat erases the totally power-less first

Murphy
The Ks are a little worrisome (28 in 131 ABs) but getting on base nearly half the time and having 1/3 of his hits for extra bases is enough to push him ahead of several others even with the comparative lack of playing time.

Castillo
Easley
OK, we all know how much Castillo and the whole contract thing bit the big one this year, but it's not like Easley was so hot himself. So it becomes a coin-flip between Luis's better OBA and 17 of 19 steals versus Damion's 18-11 edge in XBHs in virtually the same number of ABs.

Castro
Another year, another season of tantalizing power and of not being around often enough when we really could have used him.

Chavez
He really can't hit. But his main asset it that he's usually around when we need a warm body.

Pagan
Was having a terrific April in Alou's absence. Then he disappeared over a wall and then disappeared completely.

Evans
Had some good moments. Still needs work

Alou
17 hits and only 4 Ks in 45 ABs shows what might have been

Casanova
Wins the battle of the seemingly interchangeable, pudgy, fill-in catchers even though I barely remember him at this point

On the outside looking in:
Cancel - Anderson - Argenis - Nixon - R Martinez - Clark - Aguila - Molina - Phillips

Pitchers
Santana - Pelfrey

Perez
Maine
Similar stats all around (P = 10-8; 4.22 ERA; 1.40 WhiP) (M = 10-9; 4.18 ERA; 1.35 WhiP) Ollie gets the edge based on 54 more innings pitched

Wagner
Stats look better than he really was (2.25 ERA; 0.86 WHiP) but him not being there really showed how much he was missed.

Smith
Decent WhiP and ERA (1.29; 3.55) plus the ability to keep the ball in the park makes him this year's tallest midget in the circus (best of the middle relievers)

Martinez
The hint of a return based on the handful of good starts at the end of 2007 never materialized.

Sanchez - as many bad outings as good
Schoeneweis - actually had a decent ERA but I remember lots of inherited runners allowed to score and rarely pitched to more than one or two batters at a time
Heilman - 55 free passes (BB + HBP) in 76 IPs! A plunge of disasterous proportions
Feliciano - and the leadoff man is on

Figueroa
A couple of good starts before turning back into a pumpkin. Then some useful relief work after that.

Ayala
Overall stats don't look all that good, but he was brought in to plug a big hole and filled in admirably for a while.

Stokes
Threw some useful innings down the stretch

Vargas
Managed to pitch in 11 games while starting 4 of them early in the season and I have virtually no memory of him at all

Not quite:
Niese - Muniz - Sosa - Knight - Armas - Wise - Parnell - Rincon - Kunz

Now combined:
30 - Santana
29 - Wright
28 - Beltran
27 - Reyes
26 - Delgado
25 - Pelfrey
24 - Perez
23 - Maine
22 - Tatis
21 - Wagner
20 - Church
19 - Schneider
18 - Murphy
17 - Castillo
16 - Easley
15 - Smith
14 - Castro
13 - P Martinez
12 - Sanchez
11 - Chavez
10 - Schoeneweis
9 - Heilman
8 - Feliciano
7 - Pagan
6 - Figueroa
5 - Ayala
4 - Evans
3 - Stokes
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Which means Casanova loses the battle for the final spot

October 13, 2008

30 Beltran
29 Wright
28 Reyes
27 Santana
26 Delgado
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Tatis
22 Maine
21 Murphy
20 Schneider
19 Church
18 Wagner
17 Schoeneweis
16 Smith
15 Castro
14 Castillo
13 Easley
12 Stokes
11 Figeroa
10 Chavez
9 Sanchez
8 Vargas
7 Pagan
6 Alou
5 Evans
4 Feliciano
3 P Martinez
2 A Reyes
1 Heilman

Fman99 · October 13, 2008

30 Johan Santana
29 David Wright
28 Carlos Beltran
27 Jose Reyes
26 Mike Pelfrey
25 Carlos Delgado
24 Oliver Perez
23 John Maine
22 Fernando Tatis
21 Ryan Church
20 Joe Smith
19 Damion Easley
18 Billy Wagner
17 Scott Schoeneweis
16 Brian Schneider
15 Daniel Murphy
14 Ramon Castro
13 Pedro Feliciano
12 Luis Castillo
11 Endy Chavez
10 Nick Evans
9 Pedro Martinez
8 Aaron Heilman
7 Duaner Sanchez
6 Brian Stokes
5 Nelson Figueroa
4 Luis Ayala
3 Claudio Vargas
2 Angel Pagan
1 Moistest Alou

Edited October 13, 2008 by Guest

Elster88 · October 20, 2008

="TransMonk":27zwugz4]18 Endy Chavez
17 Billy Wagner[/quote:27zwugz4]

="Fman99":27zwugz4]18 Endy Chavez
17 Billy Wagner
[/quote:27zwugz4]

What's going on here? One person putting Endy in front of Wagner is shocking enough.

AG/DC
Oct 20 2008 09:17 PM

I have Wagner contributing about five times as much as Chavez.

Fman99
Oct 21 2008 06:24 AM

="Elster88":gark3wxm]

="TransMonk":gark3wxm]18 Endy Chavez
17 Billy Wagner[/quote:gark3wxm]

="Fman99":gark3wxm]18 Endy Chavez
17 Billy Wagner
[/quote:gark3wxm]

What's going on here? One person putting Endy in front of Wagner is shocking enough.[/quote:gark3wxm]

I changed my answer. I will admit to looking at TM's paper when I filled this out.

TransMonk
Oct 21 2008 09:24 AM

Yeah, you're right. Chavez has been moved on mine.

AG/DC
Oct 21 2008 09:32 PM

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Heilman
8 Stokes

The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

They Showed

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

Sub-Replacement Mets

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nuñez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

Nymr83
Oct 21 2008 11:26 PM

I started by dividing the hitters and I get 5 or so groups.

Group 1- Wright, Beltran, Reyes, & Delgado- played very well and played all year.

Group 2- Tatis & Church - played well and played a little over half the year.

Group 3- Murphy, Schneider, & Easley - played decently and half the year or played very well for a lesser but still significant portion of the year.

Group 4- Castro, Castillo, Chavez, Pagan & Evans- they werent useless.

Group 5- Casanova, Cancel, A.Reyes, Nixon, Anderson & Alou- I may need some of you guys if i don't get enough pitchers.

trying to do the same with pitchers

Group 1- Santana - is in a "group" all his own

Group 2- Pelfrey - it wouldnt be fair to Santana to group them together, and it wouldn't be fair to Pelfrey to lump him in with what follows.

Group 3- Maine & Perez - a big notch above any of the relievers, Wagner's numbers projected over 90 innings would have joined Pelfrey, would have joined these guys over 70 but with just 47 innings he needs to go lower and nobody else was good enough.

Group 4- Wagner, Smith, Schoeneweis - the decent relievers, yeah Schoenweis wasn't really bad, and he'd be better if used properly.

Group 5- Stokes, Feliciano, Sanchez- they were ok but they didnt pitch much or they were average or slightly below

Group 6-Martinez, Heilman, Figueroa -what a pile of crap, they pitched alot so maybe they'll be on thebottom of the list if i need filler.

Nymr83
Oct 21 2008 11:29 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 22 2008 12:05 PM

ok lets start the complaining.
Edgy- you have Heilman who SUCKED to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over Smith who had a 3.51/1.29 in about 2/5ths of the innings Heilman pitched. I know we have the quality vs. quantity argument every year and nobody ever agrees, but come on, Heilman actually hurt the team by being here, his removal would have been addition by subtraction.

on edit- I'm talking about Stokes not Smith. whoops.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 05:55 AM

I have Smith above Heilman, Willis.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 12:04 PM

Sorry, it was late at night, I typed Smith and meant to say Stokes.

Frayed Knot
Oct 22 2008 12:18 PM

Well in that case your argument is with everyone who has cast a vote so far (except Firecracker) and not just Edgy.

I've got Stokes lower than anyone (28th place - 3 points) so maybe I need to re-evaluate but I guess I go back to the whole year on the roster vs not getting there until mid-August thing.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 12:23 PM

Almost everyone has Pelf higher than I do. My numbers had him beneath Tatis, and that didn't seem right, so I bumped him up. But Win Shares agree with my numbers.

smg58
Oct 22 2008 12:46 PM

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Reyes
27 Delgado
26 Beltran
25 Pelfrey
24 Wagner
23 Tatis
22 Church
21 Murphy
20 Perez
19 Maine
18 Schneider
17 Smith
16 Heilman
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Castillo
12 Chavez
11 Castro
10 Martinez
9 Ayala
8 Stokes
7 Sanchez
6 Feliciano
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Evans
2 Pagan
1 Alou

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 01:13 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:50 PM

I guess i may as well turn my rankings into some sort of list, though as usual i hate merging hitters and pitchers.

edit - don't count this list, my new list is below (page 4)

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Tatis
23. Maine
22. Church
21. Perez
20. Wagner
19. Murphy
18. Smith
17. Schoenweis
16. Schneider
15. Easley
14. Castro
13. Stokes
12. Feliciano
11. Sanchez
10. Castillo
9. Chavez
8. Pagan
7. Evans
6. Martinez
5. Heilman
4. Casanova
3. Cancel
2. Figueroa
1. A.Reyes

]I've got Stokes lower than anyone (28th place - 3 points) so maybe I need to re-evaluate but I guess I go back to the whole year on the roster vs not getting there until mid-August thing

who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 01:18 PM

I think Pedro is getting too much credit, a 5.60 ERA over 100 innings doesn't have value, it hurts the team.

SMG- Ayala higher than Stokes?
Stokes pitched twice as many innings for the Mets with an ERA 2 runs lower.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 01:24 PM

It depends on where you set zero.. I set it as an ERA+ or an OPS+ of 60. Pedro and Heilman didn't go as low as that.

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 22 2008 02:03 PM

30 Johan Santana
29 David Wright
28 Carlos Beltran
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jos� Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 John Maine
22 Fernando Tatis
21 Ryan Church
20 Damion Easley
19 Billy Wagner
18 Joe Smith
17 Brian Schneider
16 Luis Castillo
15 Daniel Murphy
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Brian Stokes
12 Scott Schoeneweis
11 Duaner Sanchez
10 Endy Chavez
9 Ramon Castro
8 Pedro Martinez
7 Luis Ayala
6 Nick Evans
5 Aaron Heilman
4 Angel Pagan
3 Nelson Figueroa
2 Claudio Vargas
1 Moises Alou

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 03:27 PM

="AG/DC":3rls0zag]It depends on where you set zero.. I set it as an ERA+ or an OPS+ of 60. Pedro and Heilman didn't go as low as that.[/quote:3rls0zag]

i think thats just too low a barrier. being better than the ex-player sitting home on his couch or the guy pitching in the independent leagues can be doesnt make you any good, and it certainly doesnt make you more valuable than a part-timer who played well.

but even if you believe in your 60 ERA+ thing (and i dont), Heilman gave them a 81+ in 76 innings. Stokes had a 120+ in 33.3. so the difference between Stokes and Heilman was 42.6 innings... if you add that many innings of your 60+ guy to what stokes actually did you get 76 innings of 86.3 ERA+, so Stokes plus replacement level clown is still better than Heilman.

Frayed Knot
Oct 22 2008 06:00 PM

]who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

It's not a case of one over the other but a balance between the two. There's only so much one can do for a team when he's not on the roster for 3/4 of the season short of a Murphy or Jefferies type stretch. It's the same reason you have A.Reyes, Cancel & Casanova on your list above Alou, or Chavez over Pagan even though those lower guys had better stats over a shorter period.

I'll re-look at Stokes and maybe move him up some, but considering that Heilman was one of the most used pitchers on the staff this year and is being rated at somewhere around the 23rd or so best player is hardly unduly rewarding him.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 08:55 PM

I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 09:22 PM

="AG/DC"]I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

And I grow equally tired of the "lets give guys lots of credit just for showing up" argument every year.

Why don't you address my argument that Stokes + replacement innings is still better than Heilman?

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 09:32 PM

I didn't make that first argument. Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

I did address your argument. I was very clear.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 09:42 PM

you want to talk about "relying on the defense"? Stokes only allowed 8 walks in 33 innings while Heilman allowed 46 AND beaned 9 batters for a total of 55 in 76 innings. So while Heilman may have struck people out at a higher rate he was also busy creating his own problems while Smith was doing what pitcher needs to do, not walk people and give the defense the opportunity to do their jobs.

]Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

no i didn't. because if you're citing solely to ERA+ then Stokes is better, and if you're saying "well heilman pitched more" you havent explained how you measured those innings against the variation in ERA+, i've given you one way (adding the necessary number of replacement innings to the other guy with less innings) and you havent responded to that

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 10:18 PM

No, I'm not merely "citing solely to ERA+." No, I'm not saying "well heilman pitched more." Stop it.

Your first paragraph indicates you've read my arguments. Your third indicates you haven't.

if you want the actual formula I'm working with for pitching, it's

=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

And Stokes (not Smith!) wasn't doing anything of the sort. He was in the minors.

I don't want to explain it any more, because it's complex and it made more sense to me yesterday. I'm tired and you're being weird.

Nymr83
Oct 23 2008 01:01 AM

]=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

i don't know whats going to make this formula better or worse than any other, but heres a suggestion: if you are including strikeouts (because the pitcher has more control over them) then you should try to include walks and homers, the other outcomes over which the pitcher has control without input from the fielders.

AG/DC
Oct 23 2008 05:57 AM

Sure. Stokes over Heilman.

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Stokes
8 Heilman

The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

The Benchwarmers

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

The Hurtful

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nu�ez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

Frayed Knot
Oct 26 2008 07:34 PM

revamping the bottom of my list ...

13 - Sanchez
12 - P. Martinez
11 - Chavez
10 - Schoeneweis
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Feliciano
6 - Pagan
5 - Evans
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Nymr83
Oct 26 2008 08:12 PM

12 points for pedro's terrible showing? i don't even know which guy to pick out because there a bunch i'd pick above him,but lets start with Schoenweis, why is he below Pedro?

Frayed Knot
Oct 26 2008 08:38 PM

Because bad relievers rank lower in my eyes than bad starters.

Nymr83
Oct 26 2008 09:42 PM

But was Schoenweis really "bad"? I know he had a (well deserved) bad reputation going into the year, but the results were probably 3rd best on the team. And Pedro wasn't just bad, he was awful.

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 05:55 AM

I think Pedro's awfulness is over-rated. That is, I suspect it was an illusion in part.

A typical Pedro start was giving up two runs in the first, shutting the team down through the fifth, exitiing with two runners on base in the sixth, and taking a hit when those runners regularly scored.

Nymr83
Oct 27 2008 11:52 AM

do you have numbers showing that? i'm not sure where to look to see how many he stranded and what % of them scored

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 12:05 PM

I don't.

Nymr83
Oct 27 2008 01:26 PM

I'd be willing to go through his starts and figure it out, but whats the baseline? (the league-wide strand percentage)

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 01:34 PM

It's my thesis. I'll figure it out when I have time.

Gwreck
Oct 30 2008 12:03 AM

30 Beltran
29 Santana
28 Wright
27 Reyes
26 Delgado
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Tatis
22 Maine
21 Wagner
20 Church
19 Schneider
18 Easley
17 Murphy
16 Smith
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castillo
13 Feliciano
12 Castro
11 Sanchez
10 Heilman
9 Stokes
8 Chavez
7 Pagan
6 Alou
5 Figueroa
4 Evans
3 Cancel
2 Martinez
1 Vargas

metsmarathon
Oct 30 2008 07:32 AM

my goal in the very near term is to wind up m.e.t.b.o.t. so he can finish his retroactive schaeffer voting, and then work with him to figure out an equitable way to apply win percentages towards seasonal rankings. he's tried it in the past, and collectively, we've never been happy with the results.

he needs to figure out what to set as 'zero'

to wit, brian schneider contributed -0.65 WPA (meaning he basically took away a win and a third) in his 377 or so plate appearances. ramon castro contributed -0.57 WPA (meaning he took away a win and a sixth), but did it in only 156 or so plate appearances. not to speak for the little guy, but i think m.e.t.b.o.t. would end up considering brian schneider to be more highly ranked than castro.

but by how much?

and how do they compare to brady clark's negligible 0.04 WPA in 9 plate appearances, or ramon martinez' 0.44 WPA in 18 plate appearances?

m.e.t.bo.t.'s job isn't easy, i'll tell ya. especially when i don't give him enough of an opportunity to whir his gears.

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2008 08:23 AM

m.e.t.b.o.t. needs to deal with defense.

metsmarathon
Oct 30 2008 10:36 AM

m.e.t.b.o.t. would require defensive data to use as an input, preferably data that could be compatible with WPA.

Edgy DC
Nov 03 2008 02:44 PM

Anybody else?

G-Fafif
Nov 03 2008 02:52 PM

En route...

Kong76
Nov 03 2008 03:04 PM

EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Edgy DC
Nov 03 2008 05:27 PM

A day I'll always remember.
'Cuz that was the day
That Armando was born.

Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 04 2008 06:52 AM

="KC"]EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Yeah I wanna participate too. But my home computer's all broken and shit and I wasn't going to postmortem the Mets until after the WS anywhoo

TransMonk
Nov 04 2008 08:10 AM

="Edgy DC":2tycfqw3]Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.[/quote:2tycfqw3]

You wouldn't.

200 IP vs. 200 hits for guys under 25 is a good problem to have.

I have no problem flipping them, although in my mind it's still pretty close.

Nymr83
Nov 05 2008 05:07 PM

Anyone want to do some arguing? name a guy i shouldnt have above another guy (that we havent already talked about much) and maybe you'll bring me around or vice versa.
this thing would be alot more fun if more people would challenge others' rankings instead of posting their own and waiting for an average.

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 07:31 AM

OK.

You accuse a lot of fellas of being counterproductive who I think were pretty unproductive, but not a net negative. Argenis Reyes, though, really did subvert the system with his bat. His glove was pretty OK, but not enough to get him on or near my chart. I realize it's only one point, but I'd give it to any number of CameoMets before him.

And you need to Schoeneweis another e.

Nymr83
Nov 06 2008 11:16 AM

Who should I add to take the place of A.Reyes?

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 11:35 AM

Alou and Ayala seem notably absent.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 12:04 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:23 PM

If you want some argument starter-offers then these could serve as a jumping off point.
As compared to the emerging (but as yet incomplete) consensus:

- Transmonk is noticably high on Pedro & Marlon Anderson
low on Castro

- Vic Sage is high on (possibly various things) but also Ayala
low on Feliciano

- Vince Firecracker is high on Murphy, Stokes, Figueroa & Vargas
low on Santana, Heilman, Feliciano & Easley

- FMan is high on Evans
low on Sanchez

- AG/DC is high on Wagner & Casanova
low on Murphy & Pedro

- Smg58 is high on Wagner, Murphy, Heilman & Ayala
low on Perez, Sanchez, Feliciano,

- NYmr is high on Stokes & Casanova
low on Castillo & Heilman

- Grimm is high on (pop tarts) plus Feliciano, Stokes & Ayala
low on Castro & Heilman

- GWreck is high on Alou
low on Pedro

_ Frayed Knot is high on Pedro
low on Schoeneweis

... so you can take those variances to either review your vote to see if it needs adjusting or to make a case as to why others should be seeing things your way.

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 06 2008 12:17 PM

Well, let me just say that Pop-Tarts are yummy.

Gwreck
Nov 06 2008 12:28 PM

smg is also low on Beltran.

Not everybody will agree with me and put him at 30 but I can't see how he could fall to 26.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 12:43 PM

Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.
Other than those, the ones I listed were those which varied from the current consensus by at least 4 slots one way or the other.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the relievers are more over the map than most others.

Wagner: as high as 25, as low as 13
Murphy: 21 - 11 (PotG)
Feliciano: 14 - 4
Heilman: 19 (PotG) - 1
Pedro: 18 (PotG) - 2
Stokes: 13 - 4
Figueroa: 11 - off list
Ayala: 10 - off

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:21 PM

edit -- forgot 3rd offensive tier, massive restructuring tk

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:29 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:51 PM

brb

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 01:41 PM

Too very much love for Argenis. His was misbegotten into this season. Four walks and one extra-base hit in 121 plate appearances.

I mean, yeah, he hit .218, but it was a particularly empty .218.
Bring back Jeff Duncan.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:46 PM

Hey, nobody hated A reyes any more than me.

I suppose I could tuck him beneath Casanova, but then again 3 pts for marlon Anderson also seems kinda high.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:49 PM

fixed:

30 Santana
29 Wright
*
28 Beltran
27 Delgado
26 Reyes
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Maine
*
22 Tatis
21 Murphy
20 Wagner
19 Smith
18 Feliciano
17 Church
16 Schneider
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Heilman
12 Castillo
11 P. Martinez
10 Castro
9 Sanchez
8 Chavez
*
7 Stokes
6 Evans
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Pagan
2 Anderson
1 Ayala

______________
-1 Alou
-2 Casanova
-3 Cancel
-4 A Reyes
-5 Muniz
-6 R. Martinez
-7 Knight
-8 Parnell
-9 Armas
-10 Niese
-11 Rincon
-12 Nixon
-13 Kunz
-14 Clark
-15 Molina
-16 Aguila
-17 Phillips
-18 Nunez

Nymr83
Nov 06 2008 01:57 PM

My new list.
I've dropped Argenis for Ayala.
Thank you FK for that list of who was away from the consensus on certain players.
"too low" - My opinion on Heilman and his horrific ERA hasn't changed. I suppose I could bounce Castillo higher than the 3 relievers I have directly above him if someone wanted to try and convince me, I'm not too set on that.
"too high"- Maybe Casanova deserves to be lower but who do i raise above him? As for Stokes I'm not going to budge on saying that he is the 4th best reliever we had this year. the 3rd best reliever i have at (17) i have him at (13) and then two relievers immediately following him. if i was going to move him down i'd move those two relievers down with him, and the only candidates to move up would be Castillo and Chavez, anyone want to argue for that?

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Tatis
23. Maine
22. Church
21. Perez
20. Wagner
19. Murphy
18. Smith
17. Schoenweis
16. Schneider
15. Easley
14. Castro
13. Stokes
12. Feliciano
11. Sanchez
10. Castillo
9. Chavez
8. Pagan
7. Evans
6. Martinez
5. Heilman
4. Casanova
3. Cancel
2. Figueroa
1. Ayala

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Nov 06 2008 02:57 PM

="Frayed Knot":3vu69kog]Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.[/quote:3vu69kog]

I understand why people would put Santana higher than Wright, Beltran or Reyes, and I know if you count batter vs pitcher match-ups Santana would be right with (if not a little past) the other three; but I think that contributions made over the course of multiple games help the team more than contributions made in a single game.

I'm not adamant about it though- I can see why Santana would be put that high, I just feel differently.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 09:31 PM

Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On.
High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church

G-Fafif
Nov 07 2008 05:30 AM

30 Johan Santana
29 Carlos Delgado
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Beltran
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 Ryan Church
21 John Maine
20 Billy Wagner
19 Daniel Murphy
18 Brian Schneider
17 Joe Smith
16 Damion Easley
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Nick Evans
12 Luis Ayala
11 Brian Stokes
10 Aaron Heilman
9 Ramon Castro
8 Duaner Sanchez
7 Endy Chavez
6 Pedro Martinez
5 Luis Castillo
4 Robinson Cancel
3 Argenis Reyes
2 Angel Pagan
1 Nelson Figueroa

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 07 2008 07:18 AM

="Frayed Knot":mioxkc9p]Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On.
High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church[/quote:mioxkc9p]

Yeah, I don't like that. But there were just so many guys in that middle tier group. And Church and Feliciano appeared in a roughly equal amount of games, both sucked half the time and were effective the other half.

Eh, But, OK

30 Santana
29 Wright
*
28 Beltran
27 Delgado
26 Reyes
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Maine
*
22 Tatis
21 Murphy
20 Wagner
19 Smith
18 Church
17 Schneider
16 Feliciano
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Heilman
12 Castillo
11 P. Martinez
10 Castro
9 Sanchez
8 Chavez
*
7 Stokes
6 Evans
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Pagan
2 Anderson
1 Ayala

______________
-1 Alou
-2 Casanova
-3 Cancel
-4 A Reyes
-5 Muniz
-6 R. Martinez
-7 Knight
-8 Parnell
-9 Armas
-10 Niese
-11 Rincon
-12 Nixon
-13 Kunz
-14 Clark
-15 Molina
-16 Aguila
-17 Phillips
-18 Nunez

Edgy DC
Nov 07 2008 08:26 AM

="G-Fafif":se3wr9nl]30 Johan Santana
29 Carlos Delgado
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Beltran
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 Ryan Church
21 John Maine
20 Billy Wagner
19 Daniel Murphy
18 Brian Schneider
17 Joe Smith
16 Damion Easley
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Nick Evans
12 Luis Ayala
11 Brian Stokes
10 Aaron Heilman
9 Ramon Castro
8 Duaner Sanchez
7 Endy Chavez
6 Pedro Martinez
5 Luis Castillo
4 Robinson Cancel
3 Argenis Reyes
2 Angel Pagan
1 Nelson Figueroa[/quote:se3wr9nl]

How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you.

And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.

G-Fafif
Nov 07 2008 08:58 AM

="Edgy DC":2g5hatbg]How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you.

And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.[/quote:2g5hatbg]

Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.

Nymr83
Nov 07 2008 12:07 PM

="G-Fafif":2xmtej86]
Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.[/quote:2xmtej86]

I think he's grading them, so you'll probably get a better grade that way.

Kong76
Nov 09 2008 01:07 PM

Here's my first quick swing, I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ...

Santana
Wright
Beltran
J Reyes
Delgado
Pelfrey
Perez
Tatis
Church
Maine
Easley
Murphy
Smith
Schneider
Feliciano
Wagner
Schoeneweis
Castro
Castillo
Sanchez
Heilman
Evans
Stokes
Chavez
P Martinez
Pagan
Figueroa
Vargas
Ayala
Cancel

Frayed Knot
Nov 09 2008 07:32 PM

]I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ...

We may cajole, browbeat or humiliate you into changing your vote but no one will change it for you.
And besides, your list is closer to the overall consensus than anyone's.

That said, you may want to explain how you have Feliciano with his 24 ER, 57 Hits & 26 BBs ranked ahead of Wagner and his 12, 32 & 10 in almost the same amount of IPs (53 v 47)

Kong76
Nov 10 2008 04:18 AM

I saw a couple of things I'd change after posting it, I'll humiliate
myself thank you. Feel free to browbeat.

As for Wagner, why is everyone ignoring his IDL factor?

Edgy DC
Nov 10 2008 07:43 AM

Italian Drama League?

Internet Dating Lapse?

Inconceivieably Dead Leftarm?

Gwreck
Nov 10 2008 08:06 AM

Inconvenient (trip to the) Disabled List?

Kong76
Nov 10 2008 03:47 PM

Gwreck's is better, mine was I Don't Like'im.

Frayed Knot
Nov 10 2008 05:09 PM

Well here's where our consensus sits at the moment after 13 lists plus our PotG results:

30 - Santana
29 - Wright
28 - Beltran
27 - Reyes
26 - Delgado
25 - Pelfrey
24 - Perez
23 - Tatis
22 - Maine
21 - Church
20 - Wagner
19 - Schneider
18 - Murphy
17 - Easley
16 - Smith
15 - Schoeneweis
14 - Castillo
13 - Castro
12 - Feliciano
11 - Sanchez
10 - Chavez
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Martinez
6 - Evans
5 - Pagan
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Received votes but fell short:
Cancel
Casanova
Anderson
A Reyes
Sosa

Shut out:
Aguila
Armas
Clark
Knight
Kunz
R. Martinez
Molina
Muniz
Niese
Nixon
Parnell
Phillips
Rincon
Wise

A couple of places on the big board are close and could change a bit on account of revisisions while others are pretty much set in stone at this point.

Elster88
Nov 10 2008 06:29 PM

What's the deadline for submission?

Frayed Knot
Nov 10 2008 08:26 PM

Nothing specific.
We tend to not wrap things up until conversation starts to peter out and the list is as set as its going to be - although we are kind of reaching that point.

Edgy DC
Nov 11 2008 07:27 AM

I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 11 2008 07:41 AM

="Edgy DC":36ifpmno]I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.[/quote:36ifpmno]

One of the great mysteries of the year was his non-reappearance.

We saw an awful lot of Cancel, and enough of Molina to assume neither one was going to out-hit Casanova.

That said, the very fact that he was not given another chance sorta makes whatever small case Cancel has to be his superior.

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 12:50 PM

after an extended period of inactivity, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been dusted, appropriately lubricated, and finally activated. m.e.t.b.o.t. has manipulated the win percentage data from the 2008 baseball season and, implementing a fancy new bit of mechanical programming and intricately crafted, steampunked sprocketry, has calculated the rankings for the 2008 new york metropolitan baseball players. the list is as follows.

30 Carlos Beltran
29 David Wright
28 Johan Santana
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 John Maine
21 Damion Easley
20 Ryan Church
19 Brian Schneider
18 Joe Smith
17 Daniel Murphy
16 Duaner Sanchez
15 Pedro Martinez
14 Billy Wagner
13 Luis Castillo
12 Claudio Vargas
11 Angel Pagan
10 Moises Alou
9 Endy Chavez
8 Jorge Sosa
7 Ramon Castro
6 Robinson Cancel
5 Pedro Feliciano
4 Brian Stokes
3 Nicholas Evans
2 Scott Schoeneweis
1 Marlon Anderson
0 Ramon Martinez
-1 Aaron Heilman
-2 Argenis Reyes
-3 Carlos Muniz
-4 Raul Casanova
-5 Nelson Figueroa
-6 Trot Nixon
-7 Brandon Knight
-8 Luis Ayala
-9 Brady Clark
-10 Robert Parnell
-11 Tony Armas Jr.
-12 Gustavo Molina
-13 Ricardo Rincon
-14 Abraham Nunez
-15 Andy Phillips
-16 Edward Kunz
-17 Jonathon Niese
-18 Chris Aguila
-19 Matt Wise

this is performed via a modification of an earlier graphical methodology attempted by human poster metsmarathon. m.e.t.b.o.t. has streamlined and vastly improved the implementation of this methodology. the graphical results are depicted below. a description of the methodology will be forthcoming. m.e.t.b.o.t. requires significant rewinding after posting images, as it requires significant mechanical effort to appropriately arrange pixels into something which humans might have a chance of comprehending visually.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 18 2008 12:59 PM

Heilman doesn't rate? Wow!

Look at Tatis! Look at Show! Look at Alou! Dig Joe Smith-over-Wagner!

I love m.e.t.b.o.t.

metirish
Nov 18 2008 01:04 PM

I can see now why Schoeneweis and Feliciano are still in Minaya's plans , excellent work metbot.

Nymr83
Nov 18 2008 02:33 PM

I highly approve of MetBot's placement of Heilman.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 02:42 PM

And I of his placement of Argenis Reyes.

Gwreck
Nov 18 2008 03:26 PM

The shocker to me is Jorge Sosa. Was it the 4-1 W-L record for Sosa that put him so high?

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 03:36 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. wonders if the graphic shows up. can any human poster verify this?

essentially, what m.e.t.b.o.t. has done is determined a likely maximum value of win percentage added would be for both hitters and pitchers, based upon data reaching back into the 1970's. the yearly leaders in win percentage added ranged from about 6 up to a maximum of 12 for performance enhanced human barry bonds. the typical second place win percentage leader ranged from 5.5 to about 8. m.e.t.b.o.t. determined, using convenience and simplicity as a primary factor, that 7.5 win percentage added would make for a reasonable expected maximum, which works well with an expected maximum plate appearances of 750. and so, a rate was determined that for every 100 plate appearances, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best batter.

for pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t applied the same methodology. the yearly leaders in pitching ranged between 5.5 and 6.5, for the most part. the sole outlier was dwight gooden in 1984, with a remarkable 9.0 wpa. interestingly, despite the total innings pitched of top pitchers decreasing during the previous 30-40 years, the maximum wpa has remained fairly static. m.e.t.b.o.t. selected 6.5 as the reasonable expected maximum win percentage added for pitchers, which works very well with an expected maximum innings pitched of 250. therefore, for every 33.1 innings pitched, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best pitcher. with 250 innings pitched, a pitcher in the national league would expect nearly 100 plate appearances, as evidenced by johan santana's 81 plate appearances in 234.1 innings pitched. if the best pitcher were capable of being the best hitter, he would be expected to have 7.5 wpa in 250 ip + 100 pa.

m.e.t.b.o.t hopes that this all makes sense to human crane pool forum participants. the terminal m.e.t.b.o.t. is utilizing to communicate these 2008 rankings and associated methodology is undergoing a forced reboot. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. will resume discussion later this evening.

G-Fafif
Nov 18 2008 05:53 PM

Robinson Cancel sends m.e.t.b.o.t. a glass of 3-in-One.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 07:10 PM

I got the graphic. Reconsider Raul, m.e.t.b.o.t.

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 09:11 PM

unfortunately, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to reconsider single players; m.e.t.b.o.t. can only reevaluate methodologies and perform recalculations.

m.e.t.b.o.t. has performed a cursory review of the methodology used to arrive at the above listed rankings for 2008 and m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that raul casanova is appropriately ranked relative to his teammates. in approximately 61 plate appearances, raul casanova contributed -0.35 wpa.

based upon the current methodology whereby 1 inning pitched is considered equivalent to 3 plate appearances, there are 32 players who played more than raul casanova. to outrank a player with more playing time, raul casanova would have to significantly outperform that player. based on these calculations as performed by m.e.t.b.o.t., raul casanova has outperformed only one player - nelson figueroa, with -1.25 WPA in 1.50 time units (3*IP + PA)

the series of diagonal lines in the picture show, essentially equivalent win percentages for the purpose of ranking. as can be seen in the lower left corner, brian stokes, nick evans, and scott schoeneweis all have approximately the same equivalency (0.80, 0.74, and 0.73, respectively)

the updated picture below shows raul casanova, and those teammates immediately above and below him in equivalency. equivalency is defined by where that diagonal line intersects the y-axis, and is determined by the formula: WPA + [ ( 3*IP + PA ) / 100 ] = equivalency. this is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attempt at mimicking wins above replacement, or win shares, or the like.

modifying the relationship between playing time and win percentages is the most straightforward means of altering the ranking methodology. this can be approximated by varying the slope of the diagonal lines. as can be imagined, the proximity of those players directly behind raul casanova in equivalency implies that as you alter the relationship, you either lift nelson figueroa or trot nixon above raul casanova. nelson figueroa had a lower wpa in more playing time, while nixon had a higher wpa in less playing time, yet raul casanova was slightly ahead of each of them in equivalency. in fact, there is no way to draw a line on this graph which would have raul casanova and 29 other players on its positive side. even drawing an imaginary line up and to the right from casanova so as to exclude the cluster of billy wagner, moises alou and robinson cancel yields 31 better metropolitans.

based on the rule of 3 ip = 1 plate appearance, raul casanova does not merit placement in the top 30 metropolitans of 2008.

in fact, modifying this relationship such that 2.5 ip = 1 pa, raul casanova only improves to 33rd, and causing 2 ip = 1 pa brings him up to 32nd.

m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it fruitful to reevaluate the placement of robinson cancel further. were m.e.t.b.o.t. capable of the emotion, m.e.t.b.o.t. would, however, consider this above exercise very welcome given the recent extended period of inactivity.

regarding the rankings of robinson cancel and jorge sosa, despite the apparent statistical inadequacies of their respective performances in 2008, these two players each had positive win percentages added in very little playing time. jorge sosa had 0.48 wpa in 21.7 innings and 2 plate appearances, while robinson cancel had 0.46 wpa in 52 plate appearances.

jorge sosa[/url:sg2qqlax] had more good outings than bad outings, and most of his bad outings came in blowouts. his four worst outings had wpa of -0.128, -0.117, -0.108, and -0.078, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.275, 0.172, 0.138, and 0.110.

robinson cancel[/url:sg2qqlax] had more bad outings than good outings, as can be expected of any hitter. but when he contributed, his contributions were fairly positive. his four worst games had wpa of -0.214, -0.117, -0.076, and -0.070, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.334, 0.240, 0.170, and 0.84.

one further point that m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined may be of potential interest to human cranepoolers. the colored tails leading diagonally down to the positions of the 5 primary starting pitchers in 2008 reflect the impact to their position that their offiensive contributions has had. at the upper right, the tail end of the line, is where the pitcher would place based only on his pitching performance. for instance, johan santana had a wpa of 4.08 in 234.1 innings pitched, but had a wpa of -1.27 in 81 plate appearances.

also, if a human poster using mozilla firefox were to right click on an image and select the "view image" option, a much larger, more viewable image is available to be seen. this image can then potentially be zoomed into even further, to better aid comprehension. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to confirm whether this is applicable using internet explorer.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 09:24 PM

Two methodology issues to consider:

1) One inning isn't equal to three plate appearances, but rather to three outs. In fact, it should be equal to about two thirds of three outs --- two outs.

2) The third out is a question of defense, which puts Casanova in positive terriotry.

Positive territory, m.e.t.b.o.t.!

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 10:07 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. has no source for defensive input. for all of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s intents and purposes, defense is entirely the result of the pitches thrown, not the fielders to which the pitches are hit. m.e.t.b.o.t. recognizes the inherent flaw in this, but there is no data source avaiable which can provide a remedy within the win percentage framework. m.e.t.b.o.t. would be a very happy emotionless springwound contraption indeed if one day someone were capable of producing such a data source.

...

how would human poster edgy dc compare the relative playing time of johan santana and jose reyes, defense aside? a strict perspective would be to consider plate appearances for and against, in which case johan santana would have an edge of approximately 1053 to jose reyes' 754.

IP X 3 + H + BB should approximate total plate appearances against, give or take gidps, errors, and csa's. that gives santana 972, plus his 82 plate appearances for 1053.

scaling those plate appearances against by 2/3, santana has 648, plus 82 plate appearances for, for 702. applying this playing time adjustment to all pitchers actually causes raul casanova to drop from 35th to 36th, as nelson figueroa's increased number of batters faced per inning pitched gives him a boost.

if m.e.t.b.o.t. were to go to the extreme step of granting this increased 1/3 playing time to the batters, then raul casanova improves all the way up to 34th place.

raul casanova amassed neither sufficient playing time nor positive contribution of win percentage to warrant inclusion in the top 30 players as determined by m.e.t.b.o.t.

raul casanova participated in 13 games as a catcher. while his defense, according to baseballperspective.com was exemplary in those 13 games, rating 7% better than average, that, too, does not appear to be sufficient to escalate him into the top 30 players.

worth noting, too, is the 11% better than average defensive rate posted by argenis reyes in 27 games at second base, and marlon anderson's 34% better than average defense at first base in 6 games, and 11% better than average defense in 25 games in left field. raul casanova would have to pass these two position players, along with averagely defensive ramon martinez to make it into the top 30, unless the 5 pitchers ahead of him were to fall by the wayside.

Gwreck
Nov 18 2008 11:38 PM

So Beltran came in first under the Metbot system, without even factoring in defense? Wow.

October 20, 2008

I have Wagner contributing about five times as much as Chavez.

Fman99 · October 21, 2008

="Elster88":gark3wxm]

="TransMonk":gark3wxm]18 Endy Chavez
17 Billy Wagner[/quote:gark3wxm]

="Fman99":gark3wxm]18 Endy Chavez
17 Billy Wagner
[/quote:gark3wxm]

What's going on here? One person putting Endy in front of Wagner is shocking enough.[/quote:gark3wxm]

I changed my answer. I will admit to looking at TM's paper when I filled this out.

TransMonk
Oct 21 2008 09:24 AM

Yeah, you're right. Chavez has been moved on mine.

AG/DC
Oct 21 2008 09:32 PM

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Heilman
8 Stokes

The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

They Showed

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

Sub-Replacement Mets

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nuñez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

Nymr83
Oct 21 2008 11:26 PM

I started by dividing the hitters and I get 5 or so groups.

Group 1- Wright, Beltran, Reyes, & Delgado- played very well and played all year.

Group 2- Tatis & Church - played well and played a little over half the year.

Group 3- Murphy, Schneider, & Easley - played decently and half the year or played very well for a lesser but still significant portion of the year.

Group 4- Castro, Castillo, Chavez, Pagan & Evans- they werent useless.

Group 5- Casanova, Cancel, A.Reyes, Nixon, Anderson & Alou- I may need some of you guys if i don't get enough pitchers.

trying to do the same with pitchers

Group 1- Santana - is in a "group" all his own

Group 2- Pelfrey - it wouldnt be fair to Santana to group them together, and it wouldn't be fair to Pelfrey to lump him in with what follows.

Group 3- Maine & Perez - a big notch above any of the relievers, Wagner's numbers projected over 90 innings would have joined Pelfrey, would have joined these guys over 70 but with just 47 innings he needs to go lower and nobody else was good enough.

Group 4- Wagner, Smith, Schoeneweis - the decent relievers, yeah Schoenweis wasn't really bad, and he'd be better if used properly.

Group 5- Stokes, Feliciano, Sanchez- they were ok but they didnt pitch much or they were average or slightly below

Group 6-Martinez, Heilman, Figueroa -what a pile of crap, they pitched alot so maybe they'll be on thebottom of the list if i need filler.

Nymr83
Oct 21 2008 11:29 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 22 2008 12:05 PM

ok lets start the complaining.
Edgy- you have Heilman who SUCKED to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over Smith who had a 3.51/1.29 in about 2/5ths of the innings Heilman pitched. I know we have the quality vs. quantity argument every year and nobody ever agrees, but come on, Heilman actually hurt the team by being here, his removal would have been addition by subtraction.

on edit- I'm talking about Stokes not Smith. whoops.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 05:55 AM

I have Smith above Heilman, Willis.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 12:04 PM

Sorry, it was late at night, I typed Smith and meant to say Stokes.

Frayed Knot
Oct 22 2008 12:18 PM

Well in that case your argument is with everyone who has cast a vote so far (except Firecracker) and not just Edgy.

I've got Stokes lower than anyone (28th place - 3 points) so maybe I need to re-evaluate but I guess I go back to the whole year on the roster vs not getting there until mid-August thing.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 12:23 PM

Almost everyone has Pelf higher than I do. My numbers had him beneath Tatis, and that didn't seem right, so I bumped him up. But Win Shares agree with my numbers.

smg58
Oct 22 2008 12:46 PM

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Reyes
27 Delgado
26 Beltran
25 Pelfrey
24 Wagner
23 Tatis
22 Church
21 Murphy
20 Perez
19 Maine
18 Schneider
17 Smith
16 Heilman
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Castillo
12 Chavez
11 Castro
10 Martinez
9 Ayala
8 Stokes
7 Sanchez
6 Feliciano
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Evans
2 Pagan
1 Alou

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 01:13 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:50 PM

I guess i may as well turn my rankings into some sort of list, though as usual i hate merging hitters and pitchers.

edit - don't count this list, my new list is below (page 4)

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Tatis
23. Maine
22. Church
21. Perez
20. Wagner
19. Murphy
18. Smith
17. Schoenweis
16. Schneider
15. Easley
14. Castro
13. Stokes
12. Feliciano
11. Sanchez
10. Castillo
9. Chavez
8. Pagan
7. Evans
6. Martinez
5. Heilman
4. Casanova
3. Cancel
2. Figueroa
1. A.Reyes

]I've got Stokes lower than anyone (28th place - 3 points) so maybe I need to re-evaluate but I guess I go back to the whole year on the roster vs not getting there until mid-August thing

who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 01:18 PM

I think Pedro is getting too much credit, a 5.60 ERA over 100 innings doesn't have value, it hurts the team.

SMG- Ayala higher than Stokes?
Stokes pitched twice as many innings for the Mets with an ERA 2 runs lower.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 01:24 PM

It depends on where you set zero.. I set it as an ERA+ or an OPS+ of 60. Pedro and Heilman didn't go as low as that.

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 22 2008 02:03 PM

30 Johan Santana
29 David Wright
28 Carlos Beltran
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jos� Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 John Maine
22 Fernando Tatis
21 Ryan Church
20 Damion Easley
19 Billy Wagner
18 Joe Smith
17 Brian Schneider
16 Luis Castillo
15 Daniel Murphy
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Brian Stokes
12 Scott Schoeneweis
11 Duaner Sanchez
10 Endy Chavez
9 Ramon Castro
8 Pedro Martinez
7 Luis Ayala
6 Nick Evans
5 Aaron Heilman
4 Angel Pagan
3 Nelson Figueroa
2 Claudio Vargas
1 Moises Alou

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 03:27 PM

="AG/DC":3rls0zag]It depends on where you set zero.. I set it as an ERA+ or an OPS+ of 60. Pedro and Heilman didn't go as low as that.[/quote:3rls0zag]

i think thats just too low a barrier. being better than the ex-player sitting home on his couch or the guy pitching in the independent leagues can be doesnt make you any good, and it certainly doesnt make you more valuable than a part-timer who played well.

but even if you believe in your 60 ERA+ thing (and i dont), Heilman gave them a 81+ in 76 innings. Stokes had a 120+ in 33.3. so the difference between Stokes and Heilman was 42.6 innings... if you add that many innings of your 60+ guy to what stokes actually did you get 76 innings of 86.3 ERA+, so Stokes plus replacement level clown is still better than Heilman.

Frayed Knot
Oct 22 2008 06:00 PM

]who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

It's not a case of one over the other but a balance between the two. There's only so much one can do for a team when he's not on the roster for 3/4 of the season short of a Murphy or Jefferies type stretch. It's the same reason you have A.Reyes, Cancel & Casanova on your list above Alou, or Chavez over Pagan even though those lower guys had better stats over a shorter period.

I'll re-look at Stokes and maybe move him up some, but considering that Heilman was one of the most used pitchers on the staff this year and is being rated at somewhere around the 23rd or so best player is hardly unduly rewarding him.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 08:55 PM

I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 09:22 PM

="AG/DC"]I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

And I grow equally tired of the "lets give guys lots of credit just for showing up" argument every year.

Why don't you address my argument that Stokes + replacement innings is still better than Heilman?

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 09:32 PM

I didn't make that first argument. Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

I did address your argument. I was very clear.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 09:42 PM

you want to talk about "relying on the defense"? Stokes only allowed 8 walks in 33 innings while Heilman allowed 46 AND beaned 9 batters for a total of 55 in 76 innings. So while Heilman may have struck people out at a higher rate he was also busy creating his own problems while Smith was doing what pitcher needs to do, not walk people and give the defense the opportunity to do their jobs.

]Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

no i didn't. because if you're citing solely to ERA+ then Stokes is better, and if you're saying "well heilman pitched more" you havent explained how you measured those innings against the variation in ERA+, i've given you one way (adding the necessary number of replacement innings to the other guy with less innings) and you havent responded to that

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 10:18 PM

No, I'm not merely "citing solely to ERA+." No, I'm not saying "well heilman pitched more." Stop it.

Your first paragraph indicates you've read my arguments. Your third indicates you haven't.

if you want the actual formula I'm working with for pitching, it's

=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

And Stokes (not Smith!) wasn't doing anything of the sort. He was in the minors.

I don't want to explain it any more, because it's complex and it made more sense to me yesterday. I'm tired and you're being weird.

Nymr83
Oct 23 2008 01:01 AM

]=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

i don't know whats going to make this formula better or worse than any other, but heres a suggestion: if you are including strikeouts (because the pitcher has more control over them) then you should try to include walks and homers, the other outcomes over which the pitcher has control without input from the fielders.

AG/DC
Oct 23 2008 05:57 AM

Sure. Stokes over Heilman.

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Stokes
8 Heilman

The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

The Benchwarmers

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

The Hurtful

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nu�ez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

Frayed Knot
Oct 26 2008 07:34 PM

revamping the bottom of my list ...

13 - Sanchez
12 - P. Martinez
11 - Chavez
10 - Schoeneweis
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Feliciano
6 - Pagan
5 - Evans
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Nymr83
Oct 26 2008 08:12 PM

12 points for pedro's terrible showing? i don't even know which guy to pick out because there a bunch i'd pick above him,but lets start with Schoenweis, why is he below Pedro?

Frayed Knot
Oct 26 2008 08:38 PM

Because bad relievers rank lower in my eyes than bad starters.

Nymr83
Oct 26 2008 09:42 PM

But was Schoenweis really "bad"? I know he had a (well deserved) bad reputation going into the year, but the results were probably 3rd best on the team. And Pedro wasn't just bad, he was awful.

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 05:55 AM

I think Pedro's awfulness is over-rated. That is, I suspect it was an illusion in part.

A typical Pedro start was giving up two runs in the first, shutting the team down through the fifth, exitiing with two runners on base in the sixth, and taking a hit when those runners regularly scored.

Nymr83
Oct 27 2008 11:52 AM

do you have numbers showing that? i'm not sure where to look to see how many he stranded and what % of them scored

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 12:05 PM

I don't.

Nymr83
Oct 27 2008 01:26 PM

I'd be willing to go through his starts and figure it out, but whats the baseline? (the league-wide strand percentage)

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 01:34 PM

It's my thesis. I'll figure it out when I have time.

Gwreck
Oct 30 2008 12:03 AM

30 Beltran
29 Santana
28 Wright
27 Reyes
26 Delgado
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Tatis
22 Maine
21 Wagner
20 Church
19 Schneider
18 Easley
17 Murphy
16 Smith
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castillo
13 Feliciano
12 Castro
11 Sanchez
10 Heilman
9 Stokes
8 Chavez
7 Pagan
6 Alou
5 Figueroa
4 Evans
3 Cancel
2 Martinez
1 Vargas

metsmarathon
Oct 30 2008 07:32 AM

my goal in the very near term is to wind up m.e.t.b.o.t. so he can finish his retroactive schaeffer voting, and then work with him to figure out an equitable way to apply win percentages towards seasonal rankings. he's tried it in the past, and collectively, we've never been happy with the results.

he needs to figure out what to set as 'zero'

to wit, brian schneider contributed -0.65 WPA (meaning he basically took away a win and a third) in his 377 or so plate appearances. ramon castro contributed -0.57 WPA (meaning he took away a win and a sixth), but did it in only 156 or so plate appearances. not to speak for the little guy, but i think m.e.t.b.o.t. would end up considering brian schneider to be more highly ranked than castro.

but by how much?

and how do they compare to brady clark's negligible 0.04 WPA in 9 plate appearances, or ramon martinez' 0.44 WPA in 18 plate appearances?

m.e.t.bo.t.'s job isn't easy, i'll tell ya. especially when i don't give him enough of an opportunity to whir his gears.

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2008 08:23 AM

m.e.t.b.o.t. needs to deal with defense.

metsmarathon
Oct 30 2008 10:36 AM

m.e.t.b.o.t. would require defensive data to use as an input, preferably data that could be compatible with WPA.

Edgy DC
Nov 03 2008 02:44 PM

Anybody else?

G-Fafif
Nov 03 2008 02:52 PM

En route...

Kong76
Nov 03 2008 03:04 PM

EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Edgy DC
Nov 03 2008 05:27 PM

A day I'll always remember.
'Cuz that was the day
That Armando was born.

Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 04 2008 06:52 AM

="KC"]EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Yeah I wanna participate too. But my home computer's all broken and shit and I wasn't going to postmortem the Mets until after the WS anywhoo

TransMonk
Nov 04 2008 08:10 AM

="Edgy DC":2tycfqw3]Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.[/quote:2tycfqw3]

You wouldn't.

200 IP vs. 200 hits for guys under 25 is a good problem to have.

I have no problem flipping them, although in my mind it's still pretty close.

Nymr83
Nov 05 2008 05:07 PM

Anyone want to do some arguing? name a guy i shouldnt have above another guy (that we havent already talked about much) and maybe you'll bring me around or vice versa.
this thing would be alot more fun if more people would challenge others' rankings instead of posting their own and waiting for an average.

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 07:31 AM

OK.

You accuse a lot of fellas of being counterproductive who I think were pretty unproductive, but not a net negative. Argenis Reyes, though, really did subvert the system with his bat. His glove was pretty OK, but not enough to get him on or near my chart. I realize it's only one point, but I'd give it to any number of CameoMets before him.

And you need to Schoeneweis another e.

Nymr83
Nov 06 2008 11:16 AM

Who should I add to take the place of A.Reyes?

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 11:35 AM

Alou and Ayala seem notably absent.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 12:04 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:23 PM

If you want some argument starter-offers then these could serve as a jumping off point.
As compared to the emerging (but as yet incomplete) consensus:

- Transmonk is noticably high on Pedro & Marlon Anderson
low on Castro

- Vic Sage is high on (possibly various things) but also Ayala
low on Feliciano

- Vince Firecracker is high on Murphy, Stokes, Figueroa & Vargas
low on Santana, Heilman, Feliciano & Easley

- FMan is high on Evans
low on Sanchez

- AG/DC is high on Wagner & Casanova
low on Murphy & Pedro

- Smg58 is high on Wagner, Murphy, Heilman & Ayala
low on Perez, Sanchez, Feliciano,

- NYmr is high on Stokes & Casanova
low on Castillo & Heilman

- Grimm is high on (pop tarts) plus Feliciano, Stokes & Ayala
low on Castro & Heilman

- GWreck is high on Alou
low on Pedro

_ Frayed Knot is high on Pedro
low on Schoeneweis

... so you can take those variances to either review your vote to see if it needs adjusting or to make a case as to why others should be seeing things your way.

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 06 2008 12:17 PM

Well, let me just say that Pop-Tarts are yummy.

Gwreck
Nov 06 2008 12:28 PM

smg is also low on Beltran.

Not everybody will agree with me and put him at 30 but I can't see how he could fall to 26.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 12:43 PM

Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.
Other than those, the ones I listed were those which varied from the current consensus by at least 4 slots one way or the other.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the relievers are more over the map than most others.

Wagner: as high as 25, as low as 13
Murphy: 21 - 11 (PotG)
Feliciano: 14 - 4
Heilman: 19 (PotG) - 1
Pedro: 18 (PotG) - 2
Stokes: 13 - 4
Figueroa: 11 - off list
Ayala: 10 - off

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:21 PM

edit -- forgot 3rd offensive tier, massive restructuring tk

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:29 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:51 PM

brb

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 01:41 PM

Too very much love for Argenis. His was misbegotten into this season. Four walks and one extra-base hit in 121 plate appearances.

I mean, yeah, he hit .218, but it was a particularly empty .218.
Bring back Jeff Duncan.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:46 PM

Hey, nobody hated A reyes any more than me.

I suppose I could tuck him beneath Casanova, but then again 3 pts for marlon Anderson also seems kinda high.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:49 PM

fixed:

30 Santana
29 Wright
*
28 Beltran
27 Delgado
26 Reyes
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Maine
*
22 Tatis
21 Murphy
20 Wagner
19 Smith
18 Feliciano
17 Church
16 Schneider
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Heilman
12 Castillo
11 P. Martinez
10 Castro
9 Sanchez
8 Chavez
*
7 Stokes
6 Evans
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Pagan
2 Anderson
1 Ayala

______________
-1 Alou
-2 Casanova
-3 Cancel
-4 A Reyes
-5 Muniz
-6 R. Martinez
-7 Knight
-8 Parnell
-9 Armas
-10 Niese
-11 Rincon
-12 Nixon
-13 Kunz
-14 Clark
-15 Molina
-16 Aguila
-17 Phillips
-18 Nunez

Nymr83
Nov 06 2008 01:57 PM

My new list.
I've dropped Argenis for Ayala.
Thank you FK for that list of who was away from the consensus on certain players.
"too low" - My opinion on Heilman and his horrific ERA hasn't changed. I suppose I could bounce Castillo higher than the 3 relievers I have directly above him if someone wanted to try and convince me, I'm not too set on that.
"too high"- Maybe Casanova deserves to be lower but who do i raise above him? As for Stokes I'm not going to budge on saying that he is the 4th best reliever we had this year. the 3rd best reliever i have at (17) i have him at (13) and then two relievers immediately following him. if i was going to move him down i'd move those two relievers down with him, and the only candidates to move up would be Castillo and Chavez, anyone want to argue for that?

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Tatis
23. Maine
22. Church
21. Perez
20. Wagner
19. Murphy
18. Smith
17. Schoenweis
16. Schneider
15. Easley
14. Castro
13. Stokes
12. Feliciano
11. Sanchez
10. Castillo
9. Chavez
8. Pagan
7. Evans
6. Martinez
5. Heilman
4. Casanova
3. Cancel
2. Figueroa
1. Ayala

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Nov 06 2008 02:57 PM

="Frayed Knot":3vu69kog]Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.[/quote:3vu69kog]

I understand why people would put Santana higher than Wright, Beltran or Reyes, and I know if you count batter vs pitcher match-ups Santana would be right with (if not a little past) the other three; but I think that contributions made over the course of multiple games help the team more than contributions made in a single game.

I'm not adamant about it though- I can see why Santana would be put that high, I just feel differently.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 09:31 PM

Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On.
High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church

G-Fafif
Nov 07 2008 05:30 AM

30 Johan Santana
29 Carlos Delgado
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Beltran
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 Ryan Church
21 John Maine
20 Billy Wagner
19 Daniel Murphy
18 Brian Schneider
17 Joe Smith
16 Damion Easley
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Nick Evans
12 Luis Ayala
11 Brian Stokes
10 Aaron Heilman
9 Ramon Castro
8 Duaner Sanchez
7 Endy Chavez
6 Pedro Martinez
5 Luis Castillo
4 Robinson Cancel
3 Argenis Reyes
2 Angel Pagan
1 Nelson Figueroa

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 07 2008 07:18 AM

="Frayed Knot":mioxkc9p]Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On.
High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church[/quote:mioxkc9p]

Yeah, I don't like that. But there were just so many guys in that middle tier group. And Church and Feliciano appeared in a roughly equal amount of games, both sucked half the time and were effective the other half.

Eh, But, OK

30 Santana
29 Wright
*
28 Beltran
27 Delgado
26 Reyes
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Maine
*
22 Tatis
21 Murphy
20 Wagner
19 Smith
18 Church
17 Schneider
16 Feliciano
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Heilman
12 Castillo
11 P. Martinez
10 Castro
9 Sanchez
8 Chavez
*
7 Stokes
6 Evans
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Pagan
2 Anderson
1 Ayala

______________
-1 Alou
-2 Casanova
-3 Cancel
-4 A Reyes
-5 Muniz
-6 R. Martinez
-7 Knight
-8 Parnell
-9 Armas
-10 Niese
-11 Rincon
-12 Nixon
-13 Kunz
-14 Clark
-15 Molina
-16 Aguila
-17 Phillips
-18 Nunez

Edgy DC
Nov 07 2008 08:26 AM

="G-Fafif":se3wr9nl]30 Johan Santana
29 Carlos Delgado
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Beltran
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 Ryan Church
21 John Maine
20 Billy Wagner
19 Daniel Murphy
18 Brian Schneider
17 Joe Smith
16 Damion Easley
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Nick Evans
12 Luis Ayala
11 Brian Stokes
10 Aaron Heilman
9 Ramon Castro
8 Duaner Sanchez
7 Endy Chavez
6 Pedro Martinez
5 Luis Castillo
4 Robinson Cancel
3 Argenis Reyes
2 Angel Pagan
1 Nelson Figueroa[/quote:se3wr9nl]

How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you.

And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.

G-Fafif
Nov 07 2008 08:58 AM

="Edgy DC":2g5hatbg]How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you.

And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.[/quote:2g5hatbg]

Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.

Nymr83
Nov 07 2008 12:07 PM

="G-Fafif":2xmtej86]
Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.[/quote:2xmtej86]

I think he's grading them, so you'll probably get a better grade that way.

Kong76
Nov 09 2008 01:07 PM

Here's my first quick swing, I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ...

Santana
Wright
Beltran
J Reyes
Delgado
Pelfrey
Perez
Tatis
Church
Maine
Easley
Murphy
Smith
Schneider
Feliciano
Wagner
Schoeneweis
Castro
Castillo
Sanchez
Heilman
Evans
Stokes
Chavez
P Martinez
Pagan
Figueroa
Vargas
Ayala
Cancel

Frayed Knot
Nov 09 2008 07:32 PM

]I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ...

We may cajole, browbeat or humiliate you into changing your vote but no one will change it for you.
And besides, your list is closer to the overall consensus than anyone's.

That said, you may want to explain how you have Feliciano with his 24 ER, 57 Hits & 26 BBs ranked ahead of Wagner and his 12, 32 & 10 in almost the same amount of IPs (53 v 47)

Kong76
Nov 10 2008 04:18 AM

I saw a couple of things I'd change after posting it, I'll humiliate
myself thank you. Feel free to browbeat.

As for Wagner, why is everyone ignoring his IDL factor?

Edgy DC
Nov 10 2008 07:43 AM

Italian Drama League?

Internet Dating Lapse?

Inconceivieably Dead Leftarm?

Gwreck
Nov 10 2008 08:06 AM

Inconvenient (trip to the) Disabled List?

Kong76
Nov 10 2008 03:47 PM

Gwreck's is better, mine was I Don't Like'im.

Frayed Knot
Nov 10 2008 05:09 PM

Well here's where our consensus sits at the moment after 13 lists plus our PotG results:

30 - Santana
29 - Wright
28 - Beltran
27 - Reyes
26 - Delgado
25 - Pelfrey
24 - Perez
23 - Tatis
22 - Maine
21 - Church
20 - Wagner
19 - Schneider
18 - Murphy
17 - Easley
16 - Smith
15 - Schoeneweis
14 - Castillo
13 - Castro
12 - Feliciano
11 - Sanchez
10 - Chavez
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Martinez
6 - Evans
5 - Pagan
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Received votes but fell short:
Cancel
Casanova
Anderson
A Reyes
Sosa

Shut out:
Aguila
Armas
Clark
Knight
Kunz
R. Martinez
Molina
Muniz
Niese
Nixon
Parnell
Phillips
Rincon
Wise

A couple of places on the big board are close and could change a bit on account of revisisions while others are pretty much set in stone at this point.

Elster88
Nov 10 2008 06:29 PM

What's the deadline for submission?

Frayed Knot
Nov 10 2008 08:26 PM

Nothing specific.
We tend to not wrap things up until conversation starts to peter out and the list is as set as its going to be - although we are kind of reaching that point.

Edgy DC
Nov 11 2008 07:27 AM

I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 11 2008 07:41 AM

="Edgy DC":36ifpmno]I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.[/quote:36ifpmno]

One of the great mysteries of the year was his non-reappearance.

We saw an awful lot of Cancel, and enough of Molina to assume neither one was going to out-hit Casanova.

That said, the very fact that he was not given another chance sorta makes whatever small case Cancel has to be his superior.

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 12:50 PM

after an extended period of inactivity, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been dusted, appropriately lubricated, and finally activated. m.e.t.b.o.t. has manipulated the win percentage data from the 2008 baseball season and, implementing a fancy new bit of mechanical programming and intricately crafted, steampunked sprocketry, has calculated the rankings for the 2008 new york metropolitan baseball players. the list is as follows.

30 Carlos Beltran
29 David Wright
28 Johan Santana
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 John Maine
21 Damion Easley
20 Ryan Church
19 Brian Schneider
18 Joe Smith
17 Daniel Murphy
16 Duaner Sanchez
15 Pedro Martinez
14 Billy Wagner
13 Luis Castillo
12 Claudio Vargas
11 Angel Pagan
10 Moises Alou
9 Endy Chavez
8 Jorge Sosa
7 Ramon Castro
6 Robinson Cancel
5 Pedro Feliciano
4 Brian Stokes
3 Nicholas Evans
2 Scott Schoeneweis
1 Marlon Anderson
0 Ramon Martinez
-1 Aaron Heilman
-2 Argenis Reyes
-3 Carlos Muniz
-4 Raul Casanova
-5 Nelson Figueroa
-6 Trot Nixon
-7 Brandon Knight
-8 Luis Ayala
-9 Brady Clark
-10 Robert Parnell
-11 Tony Armas Jr.
-12 Gustavo Molina
-13 Ricardo Rincon
-14 Abraham Nunez
-15 Andy Phillips
-16 Edward Kunz
-17 Jonathon Niese
-18 Chris Aguila
-19 Matt Wise

this is performed via a modification of an earlier graphical methodology attempted by human poster metsmarathon. m.e.t.b.o.t. has streamlined and vastly improved the implementation of this methodology. the graphical results are depicted below. a description of the methodology will be forthcoming. m.e.t.b.o.t. requires significant rewinding after posting images, as it requires significant mechanical effort to appropriately arrange pixels into something which humans might have a chance of comprehending visually.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 18 2008 12:59 PM

Heilman doesn't rate? Wow!

Look at Tatis! Look at Show! Look at Alou! Dig Joe Smith-over-Wagner!

I love m.e.t.b.o.t.

metirish
Nov 18 2008 01:04 PM

I can see now why Schoeneweis and Feliciano are still in Minaya's plans , excellent work metbot.

Nymr83
Nov 18 2008 02:33 PM

I highly approve of MetBot's placement of Heilman.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 02:42 PM

And I of his placement of Argenis Reyes.

Gwreck
Nov 18 2008 03:26 PM

The shocker to me is Jorge Sosa. Was it the 4-1 W-L record for Sosa that put him so high?

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 03:36 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. wonders if the graphic shows up. can any human poster verify this?

essentially, what m.e.t.b.o.t. has done is determined a likely maximum value of win percentage added would be for both hitters and pitchers, based upon data reaching back into the 1970's. the yearly leaders in win percentage added ranged from about 6 up to a maximum of 12 for performance enhanced human barry bonds. the typical second place win percentage leader ranged from 5.5 to about 8. m.e.t.b.o.t. determined, using convenience and simplicity as a primary factor, that 7.5 win percentage added would make for a reasonable expected maximum, which works well with an expected maximum plate appearances of 750. and so, a rate was determined that for every 100 plate appearances, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best batter.

for pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t applied the same methodology. the yearly leaders in pitching ranged between 5.5 and 6.5, for the most part. the sole outlier was dwight gooden in 1984, with a remarkable 9.0 wpa. interestingly, despite the total innings pitched of top pitchers decreasing during the previous 30-40 years, the maximum wpa has remained fairly static. m.e.t.b.o.t. selected 6.5 as the reasonable expected maximum win percentage added for pitchers, which works very well with an expected maximum innings pitched of 250. therefore, for every 33.1 innings pitched, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best pitcher. with 250 innings pitched, a pitcher in the national league would expect nearly 100 plate appearances, as evidenced by johan santana's 81 plate appearances in 234.1 innings pitched. if the best pitcher were capable of being the best hitter, he would be expected to have 7.5 wpa in 250 ip + 100 pa.

m.e.t.b.o.t hopes that this all makes sense to human crane pool forum participants. the terminal m.e.t.b.o.t. is utilizing to communicate these 2008 rankings and associated methodology is undergoing a forced reboot. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. will resume discussion later this evening.

G-Fafif
Nov 18 2008 05:53 PM

Robinson Cancel sends m.e.t.b.o.t. a glass of 3-in-One.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 07:10 PM

I got the graphic. Reconsider Raul, m.e.t.b.o.t.

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 09:11 PM

unfortunately, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to reconsider single players; m.e.t.b.o.t. can only reevaluate methodologies and perform recalculations.

m.e.t.b.o.t. has performed a cursory review of the methodology used to arrive at the above listed rankings for 2008 and m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that raul casanova is appropriately ranked relative to his teammates. in approximately 61 plate appearances, raul casanova contributed -0.35 wpa.

based upon the current methodology whereby 1 inning pitched is considered equivalent to 3 plate appearances, there are 32 players who played more than raul casanova. to outrank a player with more playing time, raul casanova would have to significantly outperform that player. based on these calculations as performed by m.e.t.b.o.t., raul casanova has outperformed only one player - nelson figueroa, with -1.25 WPA in 1.50 time units (3*IP + PA)

the series of diagonal lines in the picture show, essentially equivalent win percentages for the purpose of ranking. as can be seen in the lower left corner, brian stokes, nick evans, and scott schoeneweis all have approximately the same equivalency (0.80, 0.74, and 0.73, respectively)

the updated picture below shows raul casanova, and those teammates immediately above and below him in equivalency. equivalency is defined by where that diagonal line intersects the y-axis, and is determined by the formula: WPA + [ ( 3*IP + PA ) / 100 ] = equivalency. this is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attempt at mimicking wins above replacement, or win shares, or the like.

modifying the relationship between playing time and win percentages is the most straightforward means of altering the ranking methodology. this can be approximated by varying the slope of the diagonal lines. as can be imagined, the proximity of those players directly behind raul casanova in equivalency implies that as you alter the relationship, you either lift nelson figueroa or trot nixon above raul casanova. nelson figueroa had a lower wpa in more playing time, while nixon had a higher wpa in less playing time, yet raul casanova was slightly ahead of each of them in equivalency. in fact, there is no way to draw a line on this graph which would have raul casanova and 29 other players on its positive side. even drawing an imaginary line up and to the right from casanova so as to exclude the cluster of billy wagner, moises alou and robinson cancel yields 31 better metropolitans.

based on the rule of 3 ip = 1 plate appearance, raul casanova does not merit placement in the top 30 metropolitans of 2008.

in fact, modifying this relationship such that 2.5 ip = 1 pa, raul casanova only improves to 33rd, and causing 2 ip = 1 pa brings him up to 32nd.

m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it fruitful to reevaluate the placement of robinson cancel further. were m.e.t.b.o.t. capable of the emotion, m.e.t.b.o.t. would, however, consider this above exercise very welcome given the recent extended period of inactivity.

regarding the rankings of robinson cancel and jorge sosa, despite the apparent statistical inadequacies of their respective performances in 2008, these two players each had positive win percentages added in very little playing time. jorge sosa had 0.48 wpa in 21.7 innings and 2 plate appearances, while robinson cancel had 0.46 wpa in 52 plate appearances.

jorge sosa[/url:sg2qqlax] had more good outings than bad outings, and most of his bad outings came in blowouts. his four worst outings had wpa of -0.128, -0.117, -0.108, and -0.078, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.275, 0.172, 0.138, and 0.110.

robinson cancel[/url:sg2qqlax] had more bad outings than good outings, as can be expected of any hitter. but when he contributed, his contributions were fairly positive. his four worst games had wpa of -0.214, -0.117, -0.076, and -0.070, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.334, 0.240, 0.170, and 0.84.

one further point that m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined may be of potential interest to human cranepoolers. the colored tails leading diagonally down to the positions of the 5 primary starting pitchers in 2008 reflect the impact to their position that their offiensive contributions has had. at the upper right, the tail end of the line, is where the pitcher would place based only on his pitching performance. for instance, johan santana had a wpa of 4.08 in 234.1 innings pitched, but had a wpa of -1.27 in 81 plate appearances.

also, if a human poster using mozilla firefox were to right click on an image and select the "view image" option, a much larger, more viewable image is available to be seen. this image can then potentially be zoomed into even further, to better aid comprehension. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to confirm whether this is applicable using internet explorer.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 09:24 PM

Two methodology issues to consider:

1) One inning isn't equal to three plate appearances, but rather to three outs. In fact, it should be equal to about two thirds of three outs --- two outs.

2) The third out is a question of defense, which puts Casanova in positive terriotry.

Positive territory, m.e.t.b.o.t.!

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 10:07 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. has no source for defensive input. for all of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s intents and purposes, defense is entirely the result of the pitches thrown, not the fielders to which the pitches are hit. m.e.t.b.o.t. recognizes the inherent flaw in this, but there is no data source avaiable which can provide a remedy within the win percentage framework. m.e.t.b.o.t. would be a very happy emotionless springwound contraption indeed if one day someone were capable of producing such a data source.

...

how would human poster edgy dc compare the relative playing time of johan santana and jose reyes, defense aside? a strict perspective would be to consider plate appearances for and against, in which case johan santana would have an edge of approximately 1053 to jose reyes' 754.

IP X 3 + H + BB should approximate total plate appearances against, give or take gidps, errors, and csa's. that gives santana 972, plus his 82 plate appearances for 1053.

scaling those plate appearances against by 2/3, santana has 648, plus 82 plate appearances for, for 702. applying this playing time adjustment to all pitchers actually causes raul casanova to drop from 35th to 36th, as nelson figueroa's increased number of batters faced per inning pitched gives him a boost.

if m.e.t.b.o.t. were to go to the extreme step of granting this increased 1/3 playing time to the batters, then raul casanova improves all the way up to 34th place.

raul casanova amassed neither sufficient playing time nor positive contribution of win percentage to warrant inclusion in the top 30 players as determined by m.e.t.b.o.t.

raul casanova participated in 13 games as a catcher. while his defense, according to baseballperspective.com was exemplary in those 13 games, rating 7% better than average, that, too, does not appear to be sufficient to escalate him into the top 30 players.

worth noting, too, is the 11% better than average defensive rate posted by argenis reyes in 27 games at second base, and marlon anderson's 34% better than average defense at first base in 6 games, and 11% better than average defense in 25 games in left field. raul casanova would have to pass these two position players, along with averagely defensive ramon martinez to make it into the top 30, unless the 5 pitchers ahead of him were to fall by the wayside.

Gwreck
Nov 18 2008 11:38 PM

So Beltran came in first under the Metbot system, without even factoring in defense? Wow.

TransMonk · October 21, 2008

Yeah, you're right. Chavez has been moved on mine.

October 21, 2008

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Heilman
8 Stokes

The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

They Showed

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

Sub-Replacement Mets

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nuñez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

nymr83 · October 21, 2008

I started by dividing the hitters and I get 5 or so groups.

Group 1- Wright, Beltran, Reyes, & Delgado- played very well and played all year.

Group 2- Tatis & Church - played well and played a little over half the year.

Group 3- Murphy, Schneider, & Easley - played decently and half the year or played very well for a lesser but still significant portion of the year.

Group 4- Castro, Castillo, Chavez, Pagan & Evans- they werent useless.

Group 5- Casanova, Cancel, A.Reyes, Nixon, Anderson & Alou- I may need some of you guys if i don't get enough pitchers.

trying to do the same with pitchers

Group 1- Santana - is in a "group" all his own

Group 2- Pelfrey - it wouldnt be fair to Santana to group them together, and it wouldn't be fair to Pelfrey to lump him in with what follows.

Group 3- Maine & Perez - a big notch above any of the relievers, Wagner's numbers projected over 90 innings would have joined Pelfrey, would have joined these guys over 70 but with just 47 innings he needs to go lower and nobody else was good enough.

Group 4- Wagner, Smith, Schoeneweis - the decent relievers, yeah Schoenweis wasn't really bad, and he'd be better if used properly.

Group 5- Stokes, Feliciano, Sanchez- they were ok but they didnt pitch much or they were average or slightly below

Group 6-Martinez, Heilman, Figueroa -what a pile of crap, they pitched alot so maybe they'll be on thebottom of the list if i need filler.

nymr83 · October 21, 2008

ok lets start the complaining.
Edgy- you have Heilman who SUCKED to the tune of a 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over Smith who had a 3.51/1.29 in about 2/5ths of the innings Heilman pitched. I know we have the quality vs. quantity argument every year and nobody ever agrees, but come on, Heilman actually hurt the team by being here, his removal would have been addition by subtraction.

on edit- I'm talking about Stokes not Smith. whoops.

Edited October 21, 2008 by Guest

October 22, 2008

I have Smith above Heilman, Willis.

nymr83 · October 22, 2008

Sorry, it was late at night, I typed Smith and meant to say Stokes.

Frayed Knot · October 22, 2008

Well in that case your argument is with everyone who has cast a vote so far (except Firecracker) and not just Edgy.

I've got Stokes lower than anyone (28th place - 3 points) so maybe I need to re-evaluate but I guess I go back to the whole year on the roster vs not getting there until mid-August thing.

October 22, 2008

Almost everyone has Pelf higher than I do. My numbers had him beneath Tatis, and that didn't seem right, so I bumped him up. But Win Shares agree with my numbers.

smg58 · October 22, 2008

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Reyes
27 Delgado
26 Beltran
25 Pelfrey
24 Wagner
23 Tatis
22 Church
21 Murphy
20 Perez
19 Maine
18 Schneider
17 Smith
16 Heilman
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Castillo
12 Chavez
11 Castro
10 Martinez
9 Ayala
8 Stokes
7 Sanchez
6 Feliciano
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Evans
2 Pagan
1 Alou

nymr83 · October 22, 2008

I guess i may as well turn my rankings into some sort of list, though as usual i hate merging hitters and pitchers.

edit - don't count this list, my new list is below (page 4)

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Tatis
23. Maine
22. Church
21. Perez
20. Wagner
19. Murphy
18. Smith
17. Schoenweis
16. Schneider
15. Easley
14. Castro
13. Stokes
12. Feliciano
11. Sanchez
10. Castillo
9. Chavez
8. Pagan
7. Evans
6. Martinez
5. Heilman
4. Casanova
3. Cancel
2. Figueroa
1. A.Reyes

]I've got Stokes lower than anyone (28th place - 3 points) so maybe I need to re-evaluate but I guess I go back to the whole year on the roster vs not getting there until mid-August thing

who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

Edited October 22, 2008 by Guest

nymr83 · October 22, 2008

I think Pedro is getting too much credit, a 5.60 ERA over 100 innings doesn't have value, it hurts the team.

SMG- Ayala higher than Stokes?
Stokes pitched twice as many innings for the Mets with an ERA 2 runs lower.

October 22, 2008

It depends on where you set zero.. I set it as an ERA+ or an OPS+ of 60. Pedro and Heilman didn't go as low as that.

Benjamin Grimm · October 22, 2008

30 Johan Santana
29 David Wright
28 Carlos Beltran
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jos� Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 John Maine
22 Fernando Tatis
21 Ryan Church
20 Damion Easley
19 Billy Wagner
18 Joe Smith
17 Brian Schneider
16 Luis Castillo
15 Daniel Murphy
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Brian Stokes
12 Scott Schoeneweis
11 Duaner Sanchez
10 Endy Chavez
9 Ramon Castro
8 Pedro Martinez
7 Luis Ayala
6 Nick Evans
5 Aaron Heilman
4 Angel Pagan
3 Nelson Figueroa
2 Claudio Vargas
1 Moises Alou

nymr83 · October 22, 2008

="AG/DC":3rls0zag]It depends on where you set zero.. I set it as an ERA+ or an OPS+ of 60. Pedro and Heilman didn't go as low as that.[/quote:3rls0zag]

i think thats just too low a barrier. being better than the ex-player sitting home on his couch or the guy pitching in the independent leagues can be doesnt make you any good, and it certainly doesnt make you more valuable than a part-timer who played well.

but even if you believe in your 60 ERA+ thing (and i dont), Heilman gave them a 81+ in 76 innings. Stokes had a 120+ in 33.3. so the difference between Stokes and Heilman was 42.6 innings... if you add that many innings of your 60+ guy to what stokes actually did you get 76 innings of 86.3 ERA+, so Stokes plus replacement level clown is still better than Heilman.

Frayed Knot
Oct 22 2008 06:00 PM

]who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

It's not a case of one over the other but a balance between the two. There's only so much one can do for a team when he's not on the roster for 3/4 of the season short of a Murphy or Jefferies type stretch. It's the same reason you have A.Reyes, Cancel & Casanova on your list above Alou, or Chavez over Pagan even though those lower guys had better stats over a shorter period.

I'll re-look at Stokes and maybe move him up some, but considering that Heilman was one of the most used pitchers on the staff this year and is being rated at somewhere around the 23rd or so best player is hardly unduly rewarding him.

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 08:55 PM

I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 09:22 PM

="AG/DC"]I kind of grow tired of the Guys having bad years hurt the team and don't deserve anything argument every year. Guys having bad years is a reality and if anybody better was so damn available, they'd have tried them. They tried everybody.

I'm happy with the way I have it. Stokes helped the team with his bat somewhat. Heilman, like most pitchers is a negative there. He also helped more defensively. The big difference is Heilman's strikeout rate. He relied less on his fielders for his modest achievements.

And I grow equally tired of the "lets give guys lots of credit just for showing up" argument every year.

Why don't you address my argument that Stokes + replacement innings is still better than Heilman?

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 09:32 PM

I didn't make that first argument. Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

I did address your argument. I was very clear.

Nymr83
Oct 22 2008 09:42 PM

you want to talk about "relying on the defense"? Stokes only allowed 8 walks in 33 innings while Heilman allowed 46 AND beaned 9 batters for a total of 55 in 76 innings. So while Heilman may have struck people out at a higher rate he was also busy creating his own problems while Smith was doing what pitcher needs to do, not walk people and give the defense the opportunity to do their jobs.

]Did you not see me state exactly how much better than a replacement pitcher I measured him to be?

no i didn't. because if you're citing solely to ERA+ then Stokes is better, and if you're saying "well heilman pitched more" you havent explained how you measured those innings against the variation in ERA+, i've given you one way (adding the necessary number of replacement innings to the other guy with less innings) and you havent responded to that

AG/DC
Oct 22 2008 10:18 PM

No, I'm not merely "citing solely to ERA+." No, I'm not saying "well heilman pitched more." Stop it.

Your first paragraph indicates you've read my arguments. Your third indicates you haven't.

if you want the actual formula I'm working with for pitching, it's

=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

And Stokes (not Smith!) wasn't doing anything of the sort. He was in the minors.

I don't want to explain it any more, because it's complex and it made more sense to me yesterday. I'm tired and you're being weird.

Nymr83
Oct 23 2008 01:01 AM

]=(ERA+ - 60)*(IP * (2 + ((SO/9) / (LgSO/9) -1))).

i don't know whats going to make this formula better or worse than any other, but heres a suggestion: if you are including strikeouts (because the pitcher has more control over them) then you should try to include walks and homers, the other outcomes over which the pitcher has control without input from the fielders.

AG/DC
Oct 23 2008 05:57 AM

Sure. Stokes over Heilman.

The Studly

30 Santana
29 Wright
28 Beltran
27 JReyes
26 Delgado

The Useful and the Partial

25 Wagner
24 Pelfrey
23 Perez
22 Tatis
21 Schneider
20 Maine
19 Church
18 Castillo
17 Smith
16 Easley
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castro
13 Chavez
12 Murphy
11 Feliciano
10 Sanchez
9 Stokes
8 Heilman

The Helpful

7 Evans
6 Pagan
5 Figueroa
4 Casanova
3 Alou
2 PMartinez
1 Ayala

The Benchwarmers

0 Muniz
-1 Vargas
-2 RMartinez
-3 Nixon
-4 Clark
-5 Rincon
-6 Parnell
-7 Cancel
-8 Wise
-9 Knight

The Hurtful

-10 AReyes
-11 Sosa
-12 Phillips
-13 Molina
-14 Kunz
-15 Nu�ez
-16 Aguila
-17 Niese
-18 Armas
-19 Anderson

Frayed Knot
Oct 26 2008 07:34 PM

revamping the bottom of my list ...

13 - Sanchez
12 - P. Martinez
11 - Chavez
10 - Schoeneweis
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Feliciano
6 - Pagan
5 - Evans
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Nymr83
Oct 26 2008 08:12 PM

12 points for pedro's terrible showing? i don't even know which guy to pick out because there a bunch i'd pick above him,but lets start with Schoenweis, why is he below Pedro?

Frayed Knot
Oct 26 2008 08:38 PM

Because bad relievers rank lower in my eyes than bad starters.

Nymr83
Oct 26 2008 09:42 PM

But was Schoenweis really "bad"? I know he had a (well deserved) bad reputation going into the year, but the results were probably 3rd best on the team. And Pedro wasn't just bad, he was awful.

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 05:55 AM

I think Pedro's awfulness is over-rated. That is, I suspect it was an illusion in part.

A typical Pedro start was giving up two runs in the first, shutting the team down through the fifth, exitiing with two runners on base in the sixth, and taking a hit when those runners regularly scored.

Nymr83
Oct 27 2008 11:52 AM

do you have numbers showing that? i'm not sure where to look to see how many he stranded and what % of them scored

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 12:05 PM

I don't.

Nymr83
Oct 27 2008 01:26 PM

I'd be willing to go through his starts and figure it out, but whats the baseline? (the league-wide strand percentage)

AG/DC
Oct 27 2008 01:34 PM

It's my thesis. I'll figure it out when I have time.

Gwreck
Oct 30 2008 12:03 AM

30 Beltran
29 Santana
28 Wright
27 Reyes
26 Delgado
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Tatis
22 Maine
21 Wagner
20 Church
19 Schneider
18 Easley
17 Murphy
16 Smith
15 Schoeneweis
14 Castillo
13 Feliciano
12 Castro
11 Sanchez
10 Heilman
9 Stokes
8 Chavez
7 Pagan
6 Alou
5 Figueroa
4 Evans
3 Cancel
2 Martinez
1 Vargas

metsmarathon
Oct 30 2008 07:32 AM

my goal in the very near term is to wind up m.e.t.b.o.t. so he can finish his retroactive schaeffer voting, and then work with him to figure out an equitable way to apply win percentages towards seasonal rankings. he's tried it in the past, and collectively, we've never been happy with the results.

he needs to figure out what to set as 'zero'

to wit, brian schneider contributed -0.65 WPA (meaning he basically took away a win and a third) in his 377 or so plate appearances. ramon castro contributed -0.57 WPA (meaning he took away a win and a sixth), but did it in only 156 or so plate appearances. not to speak for the little guy, but i think m.e.t.b.o.t. would end up considering brian schneider to be more highly ranked than castro.

but by how much?

and how do they compare to brady clark's negligible 0.04 WPA in 9 plate appearances, or ramon martinez' 0.44 WPA in 18 plate appearances?

m.e.t.bo.t.'s job isn't easy, i'll tell ya. especially when i don't give him enough of an opportunity to whir his gears.

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2008 08:23 AM

m.e.t.b.o.t. needs to deal with defense.

metsmarathon
Oct 30 2008 10:36 AM

m.e.t.b.o.t. would require defensive data to use as an input, preferably data that could be compatible with WPA.

Edgy DC
Nov 03 2008 02:44 PM

Anybody else?

G-Fafif
Nov 03 2008 02:52 PM

En route...

Kong76
Nov 03 2008 03:04 PM

EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Edgy DC
Nov 03 2008 05:27 PM

A day I'll always remember.
'Cuz that was the day
That Armando was born.

Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 04 2008 06:52 AM

="KC"]EDC: Anybody else? <<<

I got a list sometime this month ... it's the 3rd of November, Hoss.

Yeah I wanna participate too. But my home computer's all broken and shit and I wasn't going to postmortem the Mets until after the WS anywhoo

TransMonk
Nov 04 2008 08:10 AM

="Edgy DC":2tycfqw3]Anyhow, I want to talk to TransMonk about putting Pelfrey above Reyes. I don't like it.[/quote:2tycfqw3]

You wouldn't.

200 IP vs. 200 hits for guys under 25 is a good problem to have.

I have no problem flipping them, although in my mind it's still pretty close.

Nymr83
Nov 05 2008 05:07 PM

Anyone want to do some arguing? name a guy i shouldnt have above another guy (that we havent already talked about much) and maybe you'll bring me around or vice versa.
this thing would be alot more fun if more people would challenge others' rankings instead of posting their own and waiting for an average.

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 07:31 AM

OK.

You accuse a lot of fellas of being counterproductive who I think were pretty unproductive, but not a net negative. Argenis Reyes, though, really did subvert the system with his bat. His glove was pretty OK, but not enough to get him on or near my chart. I realize it's only one point, but I'd give it to any number of CameoMets before him.

And you need to Schoeneweis another e.

Nymr83
Nov 06 2008 11:16 AM

Who should I add to take the place of A.Reyes?

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 11:35 AM

Alou and Ayala seem notably absent.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 12:04 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:23 PM

If you want some argument starter-offers then these could serve as a jumping off point.
As compared to the emerging (but as yet incomplete) consensus:

- Transmonk is noticably high on Pedro & Marlon Anderson
low on Castro

- Vic Sage is high on (possibly various things) but also Ayala
low on Feliciano

- Vince Firecracker is high on Murphy, Stokes, Figueroa & Vargas
low on Santana, Heilman, Feliciano & Easley

- FMan is high on Evans
low on Sanchez

- AG/DC is high on Wagner & Casanova
low on Murphy & Pedro

- Smg58 is high on Wagner, Murphy, Heilman & Ayala
low on Perez, Sanchez, Feliciano,

- NYmr is high on Stokes & Casanova
low on Castillo & Heilman

- Grimm is high on (pop tarts) plus Feliciano, Stokes & Ayala
low on Castro & Heilman

- GWreck is high on Alou
low on Pedro

_ Frayed Knot is high on Pedro
low on Schoeneweis

... so you can take those variances to either review your vote to see if it needs adjusting or to make a case as to why others should be seeing things your way.

Benjamin Grimm
Nov 06 2008 12:17 PM

Well, let me just say that Pop-Tarts are yummy.

Gwreck
Nov 06 2008 12:28 PM

smg is also low on Beltran.

Not everybody will agree with me and put him at 30 but I can't see how he could fall to 26.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 12:43 PM

Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.
Other than those, the ones I listed were those which varied from the current consensus by at least 4 slots one way or the other.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the relievers are more over the map than most others.

Wagner: as high as 25, as low as 13
Murphy: 21 - 11 (PotG)
Feliciano: 14 - 4
Heilman: 19 (PotG) - 1
Pedro: 18 (PotG) - 2
Stokes: 13 - 4
Figueroa: 11 - off list
Ayala: 10 - off

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:21 PM

edit -- forgot 3rd offensive tier, massive restructuring tk

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:29 PM

Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 06 2008 01:51 PM

brb

Edgy DC
Nov 06 2008 01:41 PM

Too very much love for Argenis. His was misbegotten into this season. Four walks and one extra-base hit in 121 plate appearances.

I mean, yeah, he hit .218, but it was a particularly empty .218.
Bring back Jeff Duncan.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:46 PM

Hey, nobody hated A reyes any more than me.

I suppose I could tuck him beneath Casanova, but then again 3 pts for marlon Anderson also seems kinda high.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 06 2008 01:49 PM

fixed:

30 Santana
29 Wright
*
28 Beltran
27 Delgado
26 Reyes
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Maine
*
22 Tatis
21 Murphy
20 Wagner
19 Smith
18 Feliciano
17 Church
16 Schneider
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Heilman
12 Castillo
11 P. Martinez
10 Castro
9 Sanchez
8 Chavez
*
7 Stokes
6 Evans
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Pagan
2 Anderson
1 Ayala

______________
-1 Alou
-2 Casanova
-3 Cancel
-4 A Reyes
-5 Muniz
-6 R. Martinez
-7 Knight
-8 Parnell
-9 Armas
-10 Niese
-11 Rincon
-12 Nixon
-13 Kunz
-14 Clark
-15 Molina
-16 Aguila
-17 Phillips
-18 Nunez

Nymr83
Nov 06 2008 01:57 PM

My new list.
I've dropped Argenis for Ayala.
Thank you FK for that list of who was away from the consensus on certain players.
"too low" - My opinion on Heilman and his horrific ERA hasn't changed. I suppose I could bounce Castillo higher than the 3 relievers I have directly above him if someone wanted to try and convince me, I'm not too set on that.
"too high"- Maybe Casanova deserves to be lower but who do i raise above him? As for Stokes I'm not going to budge on saying that he is the 4th best reliever we had this year. the 3rd best reliever i have at (17) i have him at (13) and then two relievers immediately following him. if i was going to move him down i'd move those two relievers down with him, and the only candidates to move up would be Castillo and Chavez, anyone want to argue for that?

30. Santana
29. Wright
28. Beltran
27. Reyes
26. Delgado
25. Pelfrey
24. Tatis
23. Maine
22. Church
21. Perez
20. Wagner
19. Murphy
18. Smith
17. Schoenweis
16. Schneider
15. Easley
14. Castro
13. Stokes
12. Feliciano
11. Sanchez
10. Castillo
9. Chavez
8. Pagan
7. Evans
6. Martinez
5. Heilman
4. Casanova
3. Cancel
2. Figueroa
1. Ayala

Vince Coleman Firecracker
Nov 06 2008 02:57 PM

="Frayed Knot":3vu69kog]Yeah, that was the only one where Beltran was at least top 3 as VCFC's was the lone one where Santana wasn't either 1st or 2nd.[/quote:3vu69kog]

I understand why people would put Santana higher than Wright, Beltran or Reyes, and I know if you count batter vs pitcher match-ups Santana would be right with (if not a little past) the other three; but I think that contributions made over the course of multiple games help the team more than contributions made in a single game.

I'm not adamant about it though- I can see why Santana would be put that high, I just feel differently.

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2008 09:31 PM

Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On.
High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church

G-Fafif
Nov 07 2008 05:30 AM

30 Johan Santana
29 Carlos Delgado
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Beltran
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 Ryan Church
21 John Maine
20 Billy Wagner
19 Daniel Murphy
18 Brian Schneider
17 Joe Smith
16 Damion Easley
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Nick Evans
12 Luis Ayala
11 Brian Stokes
10 Aaron Heilman
9 Ramon Castro
8 Duaner Sanchez
7 Endy Chavez
6 Pedro Martinez
5 Luis Castillo
4 Robinson Cancel
3 Argenis Reyes
2 Angel Pagan
1 Nelson Figueroa

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 07 2008 07:18 AM

="Frayed Knot":mioxkc9p]Lunchbucket goes high (higher than anyone) on Feliciano after trashing him all year as Mr. Put-the-Leadoff-Batter-On.
High also on Heilman; low (lowest actually) on Church[/quote:mioxkc9p]

Yeah, I don't like that. But there were just so many guys in that middle tier group. And Church and Feliciano appeared in a roughly equal amount of games, both sucked half the time and were effective the other half.

Eh, But, OK

30 Santana
29 Wright
*
28 Beltran
27 Delgado
26 Reyes
25 Pelfrey
24 Perez
23 Maine
*
22 Tatis
21 Murphy
20 Wagner
19 Smith
18 Church
17 Schneider
16 Feliciano
15 Easley
14 Schoeneweis
13 Heilman
12 Castillo
11 P. Martinez
10 Castro
9 Sanchez
8 Chavez
*
7 Stokes
6 Evans
5 Figueroa
4 Vargas
3 Pagan
2 Anderson
1 Ayala

______________
-1 Alou
-2 Casanova
-3 Cancel
-4 A Reyes
-5 Muniz
-6 R. Martinez
-7 Knight
-8 Parnell
-9 Armas
-10 Niese
-11 Rincon
-12 Nixon
-13 Kunz
-14 Clark
-15 Molina
-16 Aguila
-17 Phillips
-18 Nunez

Edgy DC
Nov 07 2008 08:26 AM

="G-Fafif":se3wr9nl]30 Johan Santana
29 Carlos Delgado
28 David Wright
27 Carlos Beltran
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 Ryan Church
21 John Maine
20 Billy Wagner
19 Daniel Murphy
18 Brian Schneider
17 Joe Smith
16 Damion Easley
15 Scott Schoeneweis
14 Pedro Feliciano
13 Nick Evans
12 Luis Ayala
11 Brian Stokes
10 Aaron Heilman
9 Ramon Castro
8 Duaner Sanchez
7 Endy Chavez
6 Pedro Martinez
5 Luis Castillo
4 Robinson Cancel
3 Argenis Reyes
2 Angel Pagan
1 Nelson Figueroa[/quote:se3wr9nl]

How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you.

And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.

G-Fafif
Nov 07 2008 08:58 AM

="Edgy DC":2g5hatbg]How many of you folks do I have to chase away from Argenis Reyes 2008? He's bad for you. He won't look out for you.

And Lusi Ayal is in another stratosphere that he shouldn't be sniffing.[/quote:2g5hatbg]

Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.

Nymr83
Nov 07 2008 12:07 PM

="G-Fafif":2xmtej86]
Must...not...compile...own...rankings. Must...copy...Edgy's...paper.[/quote:2xmtej86]

I think he's grading them, so you'll probably get a better grade that way.

Kong76
Nov 09 2008 01:07 PM

Here's my first quick swing, I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ...

Santana
Wright
Beltran
J Reyes
Delgado
Pelfrey
Perez
Tatis
Church
Maine
Easley
Murphy
Smith
Schneider
Feliciano
Wagner
Schoeneweis
Castro
Castillo
Sanchez
Heilman
Evans
Stokes
Chavez
P Martinez
Pagan
Figueroa
Vargas
Ayala
Cancel

Frayed Knot
Nov 09 2008 07:32 PM

]I'm sure it'll be changed (by me or someone) ...

We may cajole, browbeat or humiliate you into changing your vote but no one will change it for you.
And besides, your list is closer to the overall consensus than anyone's.

That said, you may want to explain how you have Feliciano with his 24 ER, 57 Hits & 26 BBs ranked ahead of Wagner and his 12, 32 & 10 in almost the same amount of IPs (53 v 47)

Kong76
Nov 10 2008 04:18 AM

I saw a couple of things I'd change after posting it, I'll humiliate
myself thank you. Feel free to browbeat.

As for Wagner, why is everyone ignoring his IDL factor?

Edgy DC
Nov 10 2008 07:43 AM

Italian Drama League?

Internet Dating Lapse?

Inconceivieably Dead Leftarm?

Gwreck
Nov 10 2008 08:06 AM

Inconvenient (trip to the) Disabled List?

Kong76
Nov 10 2008 03:47 PM

Gwreck's is better, mine was I Don't Like'im.

Frayed Knot
Nov 10 2008 05:09 PM

Well here's where our consensus sits at the moment after 13 lists plus our PotG results:

30 - Santana
29 - Wright
28 - Beltran
27 - Reyes
26 - Delgado
25 - Pelfrey
24 - Perez
23 - Tatis
22 - Maine
21 - Church
20 - Wagner
19 - Schneider
18 - Murphy
17 - Easley
16 - Smith
15 - Schoeneweis
14 - Castillo
13 - Castro
12 - Feliciano
11 - Sanchez
10 - Chavez
9 - Heilman
8 - Stokes
7 - Martinez
6 - Evans
5 - Pagan
4 - Figueroa
3 - Ayala
2 - Vargas
1 - Alou

Received votes but fell short:
Cancel
Casanova
Anderson
A Reyes
Sosa

Shut out:
Aguila
Armas
Clark
Knight
Kunz
R. Martinez
Molina
Muniz
Niese
Nixon
Parnell
Phillips
Rincon
Wise

A couple of places on the big board are close and could change a bit on account of revisisions while others are pretty much set in stone at this point.

Elster88
Nov 10 2008 06:29 PM

What's the deadline for submission?

Frayed Knot
Nov 10 2008 08:26 PM

Nothing specific.
We tend to not wrap things up until conversation starts to peter out and the list is as set as its going to be - although we are kind of reaching that point.

Edgy DC
Nov 11 2008 07:27 AM

I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 11 2008 07:41 AM

="Edgy DC":36ifpmno]I'm Raul Casanova. Reconsider me.[/quote:36ifpmno]

One of the great mysteries of the year was his non-reappearance.

We saw an awful lot of Cancel, and enough of Molina to assume neither one was going to out-hit Casanova.

That said, the very fact that he was not given another chance sorta makes whatever small case Cancel has to be his superior.

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 12:50 PM

after an extended period of inactivity, m.e.t.b.o.t. has been dusted, appropriately lubricated, and finally activated. m.e.t.b.o.t. has manipulated the win percentage data from the 2008 baseball season and, implementing a fancy new bit of mechanical programming and intricately crafted, steampunked sprocketry, has calculated the rankings for the 2008 new york metropolitan baseball players. the list is as follows.

30 Carlos Beltran
29 David Wright
28 Johan Santana
27 Carlos Delgado
26 Jose Reyes
25 Mike Pelfrey
24 Oliver Perez
23 Fernando Tatis
22 John Maine
21 Damion Easley
20 Ryan Church
19 Brian Schneider
18 Joe Smith
17 Daniel Murphy
16 Duaner Sanchez
15 Pedro Martinez
14 Billy Wagner
13 Luis Castillo
12 Claudio Vargas
11 Angel Pagan
10 Moises Alou
9 Endy Chavez
8 Jorge Sosa
7 Ramon Castro
6 Robinson Cancel
5 Pedro Feliciano
4 Brian Stokes
3 Nicholas Evans
2 Scott Schoeneweis
1 Marlon Anderson
0 Ramon Martinez
-1 Aaron Heilman
-2 Argenis Reyes
-3 Carlos Muniz
-4 Raul Casanova
-5 Nelson Figueroa
-6 Trot Nixon
-7 Brandon Knight
-8 Luis Ayala
-9 Brady Clark
-10 Robert Parnell
-11 Tony Armas Jr.
-12 Gustavo Molina
-13 Ricardo Rincon
-14 Abraham Nunez
-15 Andy Phillips
-16 Edward Kunz
-17 Jonathon Niese
-18 Chris Aguila
-19 Matt Wise

this is performed via a modification of an earlier graphical methodology attempted by human poster metsmarathon. m.e.t.b.o.t. has streamlined and vastly improved the implementation of this methodology. the graphical results are depicted below. a description of the methodology will be forthcoming. m.e.t.b.o.t. requires significant rewinding after posting images, as it requires significant mechanical effort to appropriately arrange pixels into something which humans might have a chance of comprehending visually.

John Cougar Lunchbucket
Nov 18 2008 12:59 PM

Heilman doesn't rate? Wow!

Look at Tatis! Look at Show! Look at Alou! Dig Joe Smith-over-Wagner!

I love m.e.t.b.o.t.

metirish
Nov 18 2008 01:04 PM

I can see now why Schoeneweis and Feliciano are still in Minaya's plans , excellent work metbot.

Nymr83
Nov 18 2008 02:33 PM

I highly approve of MetBot's placement of Heilman.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 02:42 PM

And I of his placement of Argenis Reyes.

Gwreck
Nov 18 2008 03:26 PM

The shocker to me is Jorge Sosa. Was it the 4-1 W-L record for Sosa that put him so high?

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 03:36 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. wonders if the graphic shows up. can any human poster verify this?

essentially, what m.e.t.b.o.t. has done is determined a likely maximum value of win percentage added would be for both hitters and pitchers, based upon data reaching back into the 1970's. the yearly leaders in win percentage added ranged from about 6 up to a maximum of 12 for performance enhanced human barry bonds. the typical second place win percentage leader ranged from 5.5 to about 8. m.e.t.b.o.t. determined, using convenience and simplicity as a primary factor, that 7.5 win percentage added would make for a reasonable expected maximum, which works well with an expected maximum plate appearances of 750. and so, a rate was determined that for every 100 plate appearances, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best batter.

for pitchers, m.e.t.b.o.t applied the same methodology. the yearly leaders in pitching ranged between 5.5 and 6.5, for the most part. the sole outlier was dwight gooden in 1984, with a remarkable 9.0 wpa. interestingly, despite the total innings pitched of top pitchers decreasing during the previous 30-40 years, the maximum wpa has remained fairly static. m.e.t.b.o.t. selected 6.5 as the reasonable expected maximum win percentage added for pitchers, which works very well with an expected maximum innings pitched of 250. therefore, for every 33.1 innings pitched, 1.0 WPA would be expected of the best pitcher. with 250 innings pitched, a pitcher in the national league would expect nearly 100 plate appearances, as evidenced by johan santana's 81 plate appearances in 234.1 innings pitched. if the best pitcher were capable of being the best hitter, he would be expected to have 7.5 wpa in 250 ip + 100 pa.

m.e.t.b.o.t hopes that this all makes sense to human crane pool forum participants. the terminal m.e.t.b.o.t. is utilizing to communicate these 2008 rankings and associated methodology is undergoing a forced reboot. as such, m.e.t.b.o.t. will resume discussion later this evening.

G-Fafif
Nov 18 2008 05:53 PM

Robinson Cancel sends m.e.t.b.o.t. a glass of 3-in-One.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 07:10 PM

I got the graphic. Reconsider Raul, m.e.t.b.o.t.

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 09:11 PM

unfortunately, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed to reconsider single players; m.e.t.b.o.t. can only reevaluate methodologies and perform recalculations.

m.e.t.b.o.t. has performed a cursory review of the methodology used to arrive at the above listed rankings for 2008 and m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined that raul casanova is appropriately ranked relative to his teammates. in approximately 61 plate appearances, raul casanova contributed -0.35 wpa.

based upon the current methodology whereby 1 inning pitched is considered equivalent to 3 plate appearances, there are 32 players who played more than raul casanova. to outrank a player with more playing time, raul casanova would have to significantly outperform that player. based on these calculations as performed by m.e.t.b.o.t., raul casanova has outperformed only one player - nelson figueroa, with -1.25 WPA in 1.50 time units (3*IP + PA)

the series of diagonal lines in the picture show, essentially equivalent win percentages for the purpose of ranking. as can be seen in the lower left corner, brian stokes, nick evans, and scott schoeneweis all have approximately the same equivalency (0.80, 0.74, and 0.73, respectively)

the updated picture below shows raul casanova, and those teammates immediately above and below him in equivalency. equivalency is defined by where that diagonal line intersects the y-axis, and is determined by the formula: WPA + [ ( 3*IP + PA ) / 100 ] = equivalency. this is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attempt at mimicking wins above replacement, or win shares, or the like.

modifying the relationship between playing time and win percentages is the most straightforward means of altering the ranking methodology. this can be approximated by varying the slope of the diagonal lines. as can be imagined, the proximity of those players directly behind raul casanova in equivalency implies that as you alter the relationship, you either lift nelson figueroa or trot nixon above raul casanova. nelson figueroa had a lower wpa in more playing time, while nixon had a higher wpa in less playing time, yet raul casanova was slightly ahead of each of them in equivalency. in fact, there is no way to draw a line on this graph which would have raul casanova and 29 other players on its positive side. even drawing an imaginary line up and to the right from casanova so as to exclude the cluster of billy wagner, moises alou and robinson cancel yields 31 better metropolitans.

based on the rule of 3 ip = 1 plate appearance, raul casanova does not merit placement in the top 30 metropolitans of 2008.

in fact, modifying this relationship such that 2.5 ip = 1 pa, raul casanova only improves to 33rd, and causing 2 ip = 1 pa brings him up to 32nd.

m.e.t.b.o.t. does not consider it fruitful to reevaluate the placement of robinson cancel further. were m.e.t.b.o.t. capable of the emotion, m.e.t.b.o.t. would, however, consider this above exercise very welcome given the recent extended period of inactivity.

regarding the rankings of robinson cancel and jorge sosa, despite the apparent statistical inadequacies of their respective performances in 2008, these two players each had positive win percentages added in very little playing time. jorge sosa had 0.48 wpa in 21.7 innings and 2 plate appearances, while robinson cancel had 0.46 wpa in 52 plate appearances.

jorge sosa[/url:sg2qqlax] had more good outings than bad outings, and most of his bad outings came in blowouts. his four worst outings had wpa of -0.128, -0.117, -0.108, and -0.078, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.275, 0.172, 0.138, and 0.110.

robinson cancel[/url:sg2qqlax] had more bad outings than good outings, as can be expected of any hitter. but when he contributed, his contributions were fairly positive. his four worst games had wpa of -0.214, -0.117, -0.076, and -0.070, while his four best outings had wpa of 0.334, 0.240, 0.170, and 0.84.

one further point that m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined may be of potential interest to human cranepoolers. the colored tails leading diagonally down to the positions of the 5 primary starting pitchers in 2008 reflect the impact to their position that their offiensive contributions has had. at the upper right, the tail end of the line, is where the pitcher would place based only on his pitching performance. for instance, johan santana had a wpa of 4.08 in 234.1 innings pitched, but had a wpa of -1.27 in 81 plate appearances.

also, if a human poster using mozilla firefox were to right click on an image and select the "view image" option, a much larger, more viewable image is available to be seen. this image can then potentially be zoomed into even further, to better aid comprehension. m.e.t.b.o.t. is unable to confirm whether this is applicable using internet explorer.

Edgy DC
Nov 18 2008 09:24 PM

Two methodology issues to consider:

1) One inning isn't equal to three plate appearances, but rather to three outs. In fact, it should be equal to about two thirds of three outs --- two outs.

2) The third out is a question of defense, which puts Casanova in positive terriotry.

Positive territory, m.e.t.b.o.t.!

m.e.t.b.o.t.
Nov 18 2008 10:07 PM

m.e.t.b.o.t. has no source for defensive input. for all of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s intents and purposes, defense is entirely the result of the pitches thrown, not the fielders to which the pitches are hit. m.e.t.b.o.t. recognizes the inherent flaw in this, but there is no data source avaiable which can provide a remedy within the win percentage framework. m.e.t.b.o.t. would be a very happy emotionless springwound contraption indeed if one day someone were capable of producing such a data source.

...

how would human poster edgy dc compare the relative playing time of johan santana and jose reyes, defense aside? a strict perspective would be to consider plate appearances for and against, in which case johan santana would have an edge of approximately 1053 to jose reyes' 754.

IP X 3 + H + BB should approximate total plate appearances against, give or take gidps, errors, and csa's. that gives santana 972, plus his 82 plate appearances for 1053.

scaling those plate appearances against by 2/3, santana has 648, plus 82 plate appearances for, for 702. applying this playing time adjustment to all pitchers actually causes raul casanova to drop from 35th to 36th, as nelson figueroa's increased number of batters faced per inning pitched gives him a boost.

if m.e.t.b.o.t. were to go to the extreme step of granting this increased 1/3 playing time to the batters, then raul casanova improves all the way up to 34th place.

raul casanova amassed neither sufficient playing time nor positive contribution of win percentage to warrant inclusion in the top 30 players as determined by m.e.t.b.o.t.

raul casanova participated in 13 games as a catcher. while his defense, according to baseballperspective.com was exemplary in those 13 games, rating 7% better than average, that, too, does not appear to be sufficient to escalate him into the top 30 players.

worth noting, too, is the 11% better than average defensive rate posted by argenis reyes in 27 games at second base, and marlon anderson's 34% better than average defense at first base in 6 games, and 11% better than average defense in 25 games in left field. raul casanova would have to pass these two position players, along with averagely defensive ramon martinez to make it into the top 30, unless the 5 pitchers ahead of him were to fall by the wayside.

Gwreck
Nov 18 2008 11:38 PM

So Beltran came in first under the Metbot system, without even factoring in defense? Wow.

Frayed Knot · October 22, 2008

]who cares if you were on the roster all year (Heilman) when you were BAD the whole time? is this a list of who helped the Mets the most or who played for the Mets the most?

It's not a case of one over the other but a balance between the two. There's only so much one can do for a team when he's not on the roster for 3/4 of the season short of a Murphy or Jefferies type stretch. It's the same reason you have A.Reyes, Cancel & Casanova on your list above Alou, or Chavez over Pagan even though those lower guys had better stats over a shorter period.

I'll re-look at Stokes and maybe move him up some, but considering that Heilman was one of the most used pitchers on the staff this year and is being rated at somewhere around the 23rd or so best player is hardly unduly rewarding him.

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