Delgado has cooled off, folks

[Vic Sage]

After Carlos Delgado had a torrid July, alot of peeps sprained their elbows self-flagellating for prematurely burying him. It should be noted, however, that he's cooled off considerably in August, and has hit .146 over a 13-game span during the last 2 weeks, though he has produced a healthy 3hr/9rbi/7r during this stretch.

Would you be shocked beyond human ken if he continued his current cold streak thru September? I wouldn't.

And would those peeps who did backflips, going from demanding Delgado be released to demanding his option be immediately picked up, do another 180? And if they did, would their spinal damage be irreparable?

[Theoldmole]

Would you be shocked if he started to hit again?

[Gwreck]

Let's say that he levels off or even cools off a little more, and winds up with:

.250, 30 HR, 95 RBI for the season, .810 OPS.
(current: .255, 26 HR, 79 RBI, .825 OPS)

I'd still probably sign him for the one year option.

[Gwreck]

Other free-agent "first basemen:"

Rich Aurilia SF
Ben Broussard TEX
Carlos Delgado * NYM
Nomar Garciaparra LAD
Jason Giambi * NYY
Wes Helms PHI
Kevin Millar BAL
Richie Sexson NYY
Mark Teixeira LAA
Frank Thomas OAK
Jim Thome CWS
Daryle Ward CHC

* Denotes club option.

[Centerfield]

I wouldn't be shocked if he picked up from his current slump, but I would be shocked if he put together another month with at 1.100+ OPS. I was shocked to see such a month come out of nowhere (and was shocked the hot streak lasted as long as it did). Unfortunately, all of the other months since the start of the 2007 season have looked about the same with an OPS hovering in the high .700's.

[smg58]

I see no point in dwelling on who said what about Delgado and when. You're right that there's no guarantee for his production the rest of the way, but he's earned the right to be our first baseman for the rest of the season. I'll worry about his option later, although I think he needs to more than he's done to this point before I'd pick it up.

[nymr83]

from Gwreck's 1B FA list...


Carlos Delgado * NYM
(36 years old, 117 OPS+ this year, 103 last year.)
you know what you're getting with him and thats an (at this point) average hitter with an average glove. he has the benefit of being under the Met' control for next year without having to worry about being tied to a multi-year deal.

Rich Aurilia SF
(36yo, 90 OPS+, 73 last year)
he's old. he sucks, and he's either injury prone or gets benched alot because his games played the last 5 years starting with this year are: 110, 99, 122, 114, & 124. he's Moises Alou without the bat.

Ben Broussard TEX
(31, 33, 96)
decent but not good numbers in the minors this year, good glove from what i remember, has done nothing with his limited playing time in the big leagues this year.

Nomar Garciaparra LAD
(34, 103, 78)
can't stay healthy or hit much anymore

Jason Giambi * NYY
(37, 139, 108)
steroids. yankeeness. pass.

Wes Helms PHI
(32, 80, 68)
has never really been a fulltime player and shouldn't be one now.

Kevin Millar BAL
(36, 101, 106)
consistently average, like aurilia he either gets benched or hurt alot because he doesnt play full seasons.

Richie Sexson NYY
(33, 90, 84)
only a couple of years removed from success, but wow has the fall been steep. dfa'd by the yankees.

Mark Teixeira LAA
(28, 145, 150)
Boras wants an Arod contract.

Frank Thomas OAK
(40, 102, 125)
hof lock, but his skills are starting to slip. should retire with 500 homers and a .419 career OBP and 19th on the career OPS+ list

Jim Thome CWS
(37, 127, 150)
worrisome downward trends in several categories. better than delgado but a good bet to suffer a delgado-like downturn in '09 or '10.

Daryle Ward CHC
(33, 94, 144)
decent hitter, not sure how he'd work out fulltime though.


looking at these options it might be safest to exercise delgado's option (a decision that i'm assuming has to be made before the mets can even speak to texiera) i dont think its worth letting delgado walk and then if we dontget texiera having to negotiate with him along with everyone else and likely getting stuck with a 2-3 year deal or an expensive buyout on an option.

[Guest AG/DC]

Cool happens. I'll worry about that option not a second sooner than I have to. I'll take that dcuble in the meantime.

[Vic Sage]

if you don't want to think about our 1b situation in `09 at this point, that's fine. It is your right and privilege. But this thread is addressed to those who do.

Sure, I'll take that double, too. who wouldn't? that wasn't my point.

What i am addressing is whether those folks who (1) demanded we release Delgado because of his awful Apri-June (despite the lack of adequate alternative options), and then (2) wanted us to pick up a $12M option because of his hot July, still feel that he's the $12m man, after 2 weeks of hitting .150.

With a team that has probably around $90M committed to a dozen players next year, plus some arbitration eligible players (including Maine and Church, I think), do we really want to commit another $12m to an aging, declining 1bman based on a hot 5-week stretch (no matter how good that stretch was), despite glaring needs elsewhere.

And our only 1B options aren't limited to that FA list. There are trades, and there are players in the system. Might we do better with any or a combo of Evans, Murphy, Carp, etc, playing for minimum wage, and spending the $12M on a corner OFer, SPer or reliever(s)?

The view that, at least you know what your going to get with Delgado (as expressed above) is one i totally disagree with. I have no idea what we're going to get from Delgado the rest of this year, much less next year. He could revert to his form of April-June, he could have another July spurt, he could continue his boom & bust August... nobody knows what the trajectory is of his season, much less his career, at this point. Age and injury makes him a crapshoot... and a difficult point to make.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Vic Sage wrote: do we really want to commit another $12m to an aging, declining 1bman based on a hot 5-week stretch

Well, he has a $4 million buy-out if you don't pick up the option, so it's really only an $8 million commitment to keep him. Oh, and you didn't list Adam Dunn with your first basemen- he's played 108 games there in his career.

I think, depending on the rest of the season, of course, that whether the Mets pick up the option or not depends on how they feel about Murphy/Carp/Evans/Davis. If they think one of them will be a good first baseman in a year or so, I could see them keeping Delgado for 2009 while mixing in his replacement candidates. If they don't think any of those prospects will be great, they might buy out Delgado to try and sign either Tex or Dunn.

Personally, I think it's worth it to put the money you'll save from Alou's, El Duque's and Delgado's contracts and put that towards Teixiera (the team could use the money they'll save from Pedro's contract to land a pitcher). Teixiera is an elite hitter in his prime, and while he'll be expensive, he'll also be great.

[Guest AG/DC]

Vic Sage wrote: What i am addressing is whether those folks who (1) demanded we release Delgado because of his awful Apri-June (despite the lack of adequate alternative options), and then (2) wanted us to pick up a $12M option because of his hot July, still feel that he's the $12m man, after 2 weeks of hitting .150.

Well, "those folks" in (2) include a sort-of tongue-in-cheek Rockin' Doc --- based on a theoretical load more of productivity than his hot run, a similar longshot if/then commitment from holy chicken --- and that's about it.

http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=9716

What would be at issue is apparently eight million, because four million of his 2009 salary is already guaranted.

[RealityChuck]

Ultimately, Delgado is the safest and probably best choice for 2009. If we knew we could get Teixeira, then buy out Delgado and jump it, but that's a real gamble. Teixeira will create a bidding war and Boras is going to go for the money. There's a good chance the Yankees will outbid us, and leave us with a bunch of untried minor leaguers or fading former stars.

Keep Delgado and see how the young players develop. They see about using them in 2010.

[Centerfield]

I believe $12 million is at issue. $4 million is guaranteed regardless, and is not part of the $12 million.

[Guest AG/DC]

Correct.

[Gwreck]

We've been through this a few times before -- it's $8 million at issue.

The option only vests at $16 million based on MVP and Postseason MVP voting, and Delgado would essentially have to win both NLCS and WS MVPs for that to happen.

Otherwise, the option is for $12 million or a $4 million buyout.

Hence, keeping Delgado for 2009 will be a decision with $8 million at issue.

[metirish]

Of which not one penny will be ours to pay.

[RealityChuck]

metirish wrote: Of which not one penny will be ours to pay.

As long as you're not buying tickets.

[Guest AG/DC]

Then I was correct. Hey!

[metirish]

RealityChuck wrote: ="metirish"]Of which not one penny will be ours to pay. As long as you're not buying tickets.

Ha , so much for me being a smart arse.

[Theoldmole]

Another good night for Delgado.

[Guest AG/DC]

More argument for reserving judgment.

And not jumping to judgment accusing peeps of, um, jumping to judgment.

[MFS62]

Isn't jumping to conclusions the sport that's going to replace baseball in future Olympics?

Later

[metirish]

The scorer gave Carlos a hit for that AB in which he lined out to Infante , why was that not an error?

[seawolf17]

Because the game was played at Shea; a little hometown scoring never hurts.

[Centerfield]

="Gwreck"]We've been through this a few times before -- it's $8 million at issue. The option only vests at $16 million based on MVP and Postseason MVP voting, and Delgado would essentially have to win both NLCS and WS MVPs for that to happen. Otherwise, the option is for $12 million or a $4 million buyout. Hence, keeping Delgado for 2009 will be a decision with $8 million at issue.

My mistake. At $8 million, you keep him. If you sign Texiera, trade Delgado and pay part of the $8 million.

[Guest AG/DC]

Fans are funny.

Delgado has a complete no-trade clause.

[Centerfield]

Forgive me. I've been eating paint chips from the seats at Shea.

[Guest themetfairy]

CF is on a roll today

[Guest attgig]

you have to think about 2010 free agent 1bmen if you're going to think about picking up the option or not.

First Basemen
Carlos Delgado NYM
Jason Giambi NYY
Ross Gload * KC
Wes Helms FLA
Aubrey Huff BAL
Nick Johnson WAS
Adam LaRoche PIT
Robb Quinlan LAA
Matt Stairs TOR

(again, * = club option, and 1st two assuming their 09 options are picked up)

it'll be interesting to see if huff can be as good as he's been this year, and if LaRoche develops at all.


all that to say... let's worry about this later.

[metirish]

What about Murphy playing first in the near future?