Postseason Odds from Baseball Prospectus

[Benjamin Grimm]

Not surprisingly, the numbers for the Mets aren't as good as they had been.

As of now, Baseball Prospectus is indicating that the Mets are likely to finish in second place, about two games behind the Phillies. (And four ahead of the Marlins. They continue to show little faith in Florida.) The Mets would also miss the Wild Card by three games.

Projected first-round playoff matchups are: Cubs/Diamondbacks, Phillies/Brewers, Angels/Red Sox, and White Sox/Rays.

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.7 86.6 82.3 76.7 61.4 90.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          61   50   .526   88.7   73.3   53.77300    7.38904   61.16204         .78008  20.56688
Marlins           59   53   .483   83.0   79.0    9.17123    2.87657   12.04780         .26577   1.72030
Mets              58   53   .545   87.3   74.7   36.52008    8.99489   45.51497        1.06234 -20.02667
Braves            51   61   .518   77.2   84.8     .53568     .14917     .68485       -0.28539  -1.84355
Nationals         42   70   .401   61.4  100.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

[Benjamin Grimm]

Wow, it's been a month since I last checked in on this thread.

The numbers, not surprisingly, have gotten quite a bit better:

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.8 87.6 81.8 71.1 62.8 91.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              79   61   .541   91.5   70.5   84.69912    1.43621   86.13531        9.39107  23.34427
Phillies          76   64   .519   87.7   74.3   15.06497    3.30597   18.37093       -8.83420 -20.06348
Marlins           71   69   .481   81.9   80.1     .23592     .01853     .25445         .01222  -2.28478
Braves            60   80   .492   71.1   90.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00013
Nationals         54   86   .401   62.8   99.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

At 86%, the Mets have the third highest playoff likelihood in the NL. (Behind the Brewers and the Cubs.) The Mets are averaging 91.5 wins in the BP scenarios, very close to the goal of 92 that Marlon Anderson set way back when 92 looked impossible.

The Mets can get to 90 wins by playing .500 (11 and 11) the rest of the way, but I don't think that would be a good idea. Actually, if two or three of those 11 wins come against the Phillies, then .500 could actually be good enough. A .600 pace the rest of the way will leave the Mets with 92 wins, and, very likely, a division title.

The Brewers remain the most likely Wild Card (and the Mets first-round opponent) as do the Red Sox. Yankees' playoff odds are down to 1.3%.

[duan]

what is interesting is that those odds one month ago correctly interpreted the Marlins as having a false position vs the Mets.

[Elster88]

What's PCT3? It doesn't match the actual or projected record for the Marlins.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

Elster88 wrote: What's PCT3? It doesn't match the actual or projected record for the Marlins.

It's their adjusted win percentage, based on third order wins. Here's that info.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.4 88.0 82.4 71.8 62.1 91.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              79   62   .542   91.0   71.0   77.48213    2.43448   79.91661       -6.66992   5.90852
Phillies          77   64   .520   88.3   73.7   22.05458    4.30520   26.35979        6.66466  -0.96824
Marlins           72   69   .483   82.5   79.5     .46328     .03162     .49490         .23023  -0.65060
Braves            62   80   .492   71.8   90.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         54   88   .401   62.1   99.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Phillies grab 6.6 percentage points from the Mets with last night's win.

The wild card is becoming a little more likely for both teams, but the Brewers are still the overwhelming favorite to get the Card.

[Benjamin Grimm]

NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              80   63   .542   90.9   71.1   77.32940    2.90260   80.23200         .83837    .31720
Phillies          78   65   .521   88.5   73.5   22.50770    5.27997   27.78767        2.32856    .26487
Marlins           72   71   .482   81.6   80.4     .16290     .00446     .16736       -0.11565    .01466
Braves            62   82   .488   70.5   91.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         56   88   .404   63.4   98.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

The doubleheader split works slightly in the Mets favor, as would be expected. (The lead remains the same, but we're two games closer to the end of the season.)

Marlins are barely hanging in there. Their tragic number for the division is 12, and for the Wild Card is 10. Hopefully they'll win against the Phillies tonight (and tomorrow... and Wednesday...) to keep their hopes alive for a few more days.

Dodgers are now at 76.6% for the playoffs, compared to Arizona's 23%.

Yankees are at .27216%.

Four teams are at 98% or higher: Tampa Bay, Boston, the Cubs, and the Angels.

Mets still projected to open the playoffs against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Vince Coleman Firecracker wrote: The PECOTA adjusted version has the Mets at 38% to win the division against the Phillies' 49.4%. Then again, PECOTA had Delgado hitting .265/.343/.471 instead of .239/.318/.433.

Delgado right now: .261/.346/.504

PECOTA WINS!!!!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Phillies, by winning last night while the Mets were idle, gain 6.86164 points. Most of those come at the expense of the Brewers, who lost. The Mets only drop by 1.84834.

[nymr83]

will tonight's game get played? its been pouring for an hour or so

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'd like to announce the Brewers have finally caught up to us in the Loss column, which is obviously good news in the event we make bad news. The Astros and Cardinals haven't given up yet, that's fun.

I wouldn't have thought this was possible, but there's a chance that the Cubs series coming up could be for Home Feild and the West champs in the first round. We're 3 back from the Cubbies.

[TransMonk]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wouldn't have thought this was possible, but there's a chance that the Cubs series coming up could be for Home Feild and the West champs in the first round. We're 3 back from the Cubbies.

I think we're 5 back from the Cubs, but it still may make that series a bigger one than it already was.

The Mets have more wins than any MLB team since the day Manuel took over.

[HahnSolo]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I wouldn't have thought this was possible, but there's a chance that the Cubs series coming up could be for Home Feild and the West champs in the first round. We're 3 back from the Cubbies.

It is also possible that we could have a repeat of that Braves series in 2000, where the Cubs and Mets could both clinch playoff spots on different nights in the same series.

[Guest AG/DC]

You know, the world ain't right when that can happen.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.5 88.1 81.7 71.0 63.0 91.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              81   63   .544   91.2   70.8   82.82520    3.92908   86.75428        8.48640  10.01004
Phillies          79   66   .521   88.3   73.7   17.09625    9.62643   26.72268       -7.94178  -0.48245
Marlins           73   72   .482   81.7   80.3     .07855     .00687     .08542         .02258  -0.15681
Braves            63   82   .489   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         56   89   .402   63.0   99.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Yesterday's action gains the Mets 8.48 points, mostly, but not entirely, at the expense of the Phillies. Philadelphia's wild card chances continue to inch upward as the Brewers continue to slide.

Brewers currently have playoff odds of 73.20480, with 63.58383 of that coming from the Wild Card column. Their upcoming four-game series with the Phillies has the potential to dramatically shift the odds for both teams.

Same four teams as before (Tampa Bay, Boston, the Cubs, and the Angels) have percentages over 98. For those teams, only a collapse (there's that word again) would keep them from the post-season.

In the NL West, the Dodgers are now at 86%, while the Diamondbacks have dropped to 13%.

Mets first-round playoff opponent is still projected to be Milwaukee, while the Cubs would play the Dodgers.

First round in the AL would be Rays vs. White Sox, and Angels vs. the wild-card Red Sox.

The yet-to-be-eliminated team with the slimmest playoff hopes is the Texas Rangers, at .00005. (Tigers are at ..01192 and the Giants at .01192.)

[Guest metsguyinmichigan]

Considering our recent performance against Milwaukee, I'm very OK with that. Bring 'em on. They'll just be happy to be there.

[Centerfield]

Milwaukee would throw CC Sabathia twice in a 5 game series. A small part of me would rather see Philly take the Wild Card over the Brewers.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, maybe. But if the Brewers go down to the final couple of games of the season before they clinch the playoff berth, they may not be positioned to have Sabathia start Game 1.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

CC's about to start a gay dame now with Cincy. I don't think we can afford to be too picky about how tough the playoff opponents are, but if like, Houston sneaks in I won't complain.

Reds lost Brandon Phillips for the year with a broken hand or finger in last nite's game.

[Benjamin Grimm]

True. Playoff opponents aren't supposed to be easy. (And the easy ones can be surprisingly tough, as with the 2006 Cardinals.)

I've been glad to see the Brewers losing. With the Mets only a half game behind them the Wild Card is becoming a viable safety net. But it's a double-edged sword; if the Brewers continue to slump, the Phillies will roll right over them. I'm hoping that CC does the "stopper" thing today, snaps the Brewers out of their funk, and positions them for a big weekend in Philadelphia.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.6 87.6 82.3 71.5 62.7 91.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              82   63   .543   91.5   70.5   90.12007    1.92889   92.04895        5.29467   5.91364
Phillies          79   67   .519   87.7   74.3    9.75977    6.76654   16.52630      -10.19638  -1.84463
Marlins           74   72   .484   82.3   79.7     .12017     .00936     .12953         .04411  -0.12492
Braves            64   82   .492   71.5   90.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         56   90   .403   62.7   99.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Mets now over the 90% mark, gaining just over 5 points. Phillies drop 10 in yesterday's action, losing some of that to the Mets and some to the Brewers, who gained about 7.5

Meanwhile, the Angels are the first team to get to 100% with yesterday's clincher. Yankees drop to .09093%.

The Dodgers gained 6.84691 points yesterday, joining the 90+ club with a score of 93.10625%. Remember earlier this season when Arizona was being called the "best team in baseball?" Their playoff odds have now dropped to 6.76231, which is only slightly better than the odds of St. Louis and Houston, who are both between 5 and 6 points.

The Mets are projected to win 91.5 games, which is very close to the 92 that Marlon Anderson set as a goal way back in the Willie Randolph dark ages. If the Mets do win 92 and the division title, I hope that little chart that he scribbled in the Mets clubhouse goes to Cooperstown.

[Guest AG/DC]

Ninety-two percent sure feels better when we're climbing up from 72% a few weeks ago.

Last year, when we dropped from 99 to 92, my head tried to take comfort in the heft of that number, but the my stomache saw the trend and I was sick.

My stomache was rigtht then and my head was wrong. Fortunately, they're pretty together this year, sharing cautious optimism.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I hear you.

Here's another way of looking at the road ahead. There are 33 games left that we care about. (I'm putting aside the Wild Card here, because that makes things too complicated.) Of those 33, 17 will be played by the Mets and 16 by the Phillies. With a magic number of 14, we need a happy outcome in 14 of those 33 games. That means things have to go our way 42.4% of the time for the Mets to win the division.

Let's hope that that number steadily decreases in the days ahead.

[Benjamin Grimm]

NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              82   63   .544   91.5   70.5   87.19173    3.00352   90.19525       -1.85370   3.60872
Phillies          80   67   .521   88.2   73.8   12.70688    9.92088   22.62777        6.10147   2.93264
Marlins           74   72   .484   82.3   79.7     .10138     .01305     .11443       -0.01510  -0.15024
Braves            65   82   .493   71.9   90.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 .00000
Nationals         56   90   .403   62.7   99.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

The Mets were idle last night, but the Phillies defeated the Brewers. The Mets NL East odds drop by about 3 points, but they gain a little over 1 in the wild card hunt, for a net loss of almost 2 points.

The Mets magic number remains at 14, but their NHOP* rises from 42.4% to 43.75%. (That's not good. We want our NHOP to get down to zero.)


*NHOP: Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage. With 32 games that matter (17 for the Mets and 15 for the Phillies) we need 14 happy outcomes to reduce the magic number to zero. The lower our NHOP, the better the playoff odds. NHOP is pronounced with two syllables: N-HOP.

[Frayed Knot]

]NHOP: Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage

And here I was thinking that that pancake place had cut back on their overseas operations.

[Frayed Knot]

I actually like this N-HOP concept.
We started the final 17 game stretch last year with our N-HOP at 33%

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: ]NHOP: Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage And here I was thinking that that pancake place had cut back on their overseas operations.

they've cut back on their hours, i was very upset to find them closed at 1 AM on a saturday.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Prospectus hasn't updated its page yet, but the Mets NHOP took a hit yesterday, with the Mets getting only one happy outcome in three games.

We're now at 44.8%. The Mets need 13 happy outcomes in 29 games. (15 for the Mets, 14 for the Phillies.)

If the Mets can drop the magic number by two today, I'll consider this weekend a modest success.

[Benjamin Grimm]

NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              83   64   .547   91.4   70.6   83.34002    5.14094   88.48096       -1.75919   9.08733
Phillies          81   67   .522   88.7   73.3   16.52742   14.76624   31.29366        8.14161   5.83455
Marlins           76   72   .483   83.1   78.9     .13257     .05410     .18667         .04088  -0.09634
Braves            66   83   .491   72.1   89.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         56   92   .404   61.9  100.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Yesterday's action cost the Mets less than 2 points, but the Phillies gained just over 8, mostly at the expense of the Brewers, who dropped 7.55 to 67.63096. (64.4% of that is for the Wild Card.)

Arizona is down to 2.15817 for the playoffs, zero for the wild card. (It doesn't look like they've been eliminated from the wild card, though. They can still win 87 games, and only the Cubs have won more than that so far.)

In the AL Central, currently in a virtual tie (Chicago ahead by .001) has a bit of a disparity in the projected finishes:

AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             82   66   .516   88.8   73.2   41.79495     .09638   41.89133       13.17396  23.3235
White Sox         81   65   .547   88.9   72.1   58.20480     .07700   58.28180      -13.12543 -24.16920

[Benjamin Grimm]

                  W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              83   65   .548   90.8   71.2   65.82582   14.59548   80.42130       -8.05965    .18930
Phillies          83   67   .528   89.7   72.3   34.02072   25.30899   59.32970       28.03604  31.54203
Brewers           83   67   .532   89.4   72.6     .76578   47.94792   48.71371      -18.91725 -38.81012
Astros            80   68   .484   87.3   74.7     .01777   10.70041   10.71818       -0.90918   9.11287

The events of this past weekend have forced me to include the Wild Card portion of the race in the Mets playoff odds. Despite Steve Rogers' comment about the Card being "off the table" I'll happily take any ticket to the post-season. Sure I'd love to see the Mets win the division AND deprive the Phillies of a playoff berth, but things don't always work out exactly the way we'd like them to.

The Cubs are at 99.21603 to win the NL Central, and only .69691 for the Wild Card. Other NL teams with negligible Wild Card hopes are St. Louis (.61021) and Florida (.14007). The teams that the Mets now have to reckon with are, in addition to the Phillies, the Brewers and the Astros.

Yesterdays' action was bad for the Mets, worse for the Brewers, and very very good for the Phillies. Mets playoff odds drop by just over 8%, the Brewers drop by almost 19, and the Phillies gain just over 28.

For the division title, the Mets' NHOP rises to 50%. (They need 13 happy outcomes in 26 games. Getting one happy outcome in the seven games that have been played since Thursday really hurts.)

The Brewers have an identical record to the Phillies, so the Mets also have a magic number of 13 to finish with a better record than Milwaukee, and a 50% NHOP. The magic number over Houston is 12, and the NHOP is 42.85% (12 out of 28).

A slight bit of good news: If the Mets and Phillies end with an identical record, and both end up better than the Astros and Brewers, the Mets will end up as the division champion and the Phillies will be the Wild Card, thanks to the Mets winning the season series this year against Philadelphia. The Brewers look like they're doing a bigger fade than the Mets are. (After all, the Mets have only lost two of three.) So even though the Mets, at the moment, anyway, don't look too likely to outplay the hot Phillies the rest of the way, chances for October are still looking pretty good.