Is that all there is?

[Guest Triple Dee]

Nymr83 wrote: Lohse is 28 years old and owns a 95 ERA+ for his career (100 last year) Gil Meche at age 27, coming off a 99 ERA+ and owning a sub-100 mark for his career to that point got a huge contract from the royals. Lohse was a more reliable innings eater as well.

Carlos Silva also gets a ridiculous contract. Lohse really needs to fire his agent.

[metsmarathon]

Triple Dee wrote: ="Nymr83"]why isn't Sosa a hall of famer? and if your answer is "steroids," why ARE Bonds and Clemens and who knows how many other from this era who were suspected but never caught like Sosa going to get in? I think you'll find there's a new criteria when assessing entry; "the extent to which they misled the public balanced against a guestimate of their ability without PEDs" On this criteria, Bonds is in, Clemens is 50-50 and Sosa, Palmeiro are out

without looking at it, i'd say that if clemens were truly in the twilight of his career when he left boston for toronto, and had simply continued with a steady decline of very good drawing down to average starting pitcher, he'd still have put together enough of a hall of fame-y career that he didn't need the ped's to get in. to be considered one of the best ever? yep. but to get in the hall, i think he'd have a shot. basically, i don't think his career would look any worse than glavine's, and would prolly look even better.

but that's without looking at it. i could be very much wrong.

also... who knows how they're gonna vote for pitchers once this current crop of 300-winners and nearly 300 winners passes us by. (and clemens' greatness - albeit due to ped use - has pushed the discussion off for a few years at least) of the pitchers whose age alone does not put them way over hte hill, only pedro is a lock for the hall, and i don't know who's next.

but that's a conversation for another thread, i think...

[nymr83]

you're making big assumptions about when the PED use started, if you only want to go by when he got caught then you can't penalize Sosa who never got caught.

[Guest Triple Dee]

Nymr83 wrote: you're making big assumptions about when the PED use started, if you only want to go by when he got caught then you can't penalize Sosa who never got caught.

If I was to take a wild guess for Sosa, I'd say the 1997/98 off-season

Year Ag OPS+
1990 21 92
1991 22 59
1992 23 99
1993 24 111
1994 25 127
1995 26 121
1996 27 126
1997 28 99
1998 29 160
1999 30 151
2000 31 161
2001 32 203
2002 33 160
2003 34 133
2004 35 113
2005 36 78
2007 38 102

[seawolf17]

="Frayed Knot"]Bartolo Colon looks like he'll be signing with Boston while Trot Nixon hooks up with Arizona. But that still leaves a pretty heftly list of the newly unemployed, including hitters: Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Preston Wilson, Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, Rondell White, Corey Patterson, Ryan Klesko, Julio Franco and pitchers: David Wells, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, Russ Ortiz, Eric Milton, Aaron Sele, Rodrigo Lopez, Armando Bentiez, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa & Antonio Alfonseca

Almost everyone on that list is either an outfielder or a DH... and all the pitchers are guys who are fourth starters, middle relievers who won't get important innings, or guys with too many fingers. So why pay for that when you get similar production for less money out of someone from your minor league system?

(Assuming you have guys with extra fingers in your minor league system.)

[metsmarathon]

baseball prospectus predicts for the players listed...
(wins above replacement based on pecota weighted means)

hitter	90%	mean	10%	MORP
bonds	5.0	3.2	1.9	$6.65 M
sosa	3.6	1.6	0.0	$3.00 M
piazza	2.8	1.5	-0.2	$2.40 M
green	3.7	2.0	-0.4	$2.75 M
stewart	4.3	2.7	-0.2	$4.00 M
wilson	2.0	0.9	-0.6	$0.95 M
sanders	1.6	1.2	0.0	$1.80 M
lofton	3.6	2.5	0.6	$3.75 M
white	0.8	0.3	-0.7	$0.50 M
patterson	4.4	3.3	0.8	$5.68 M
klesko	3.2	1.9	0.1	$3.18 M
franco	-	-	-	-

baseball prospectus does not yet seem to have the pitchers' pecota cards up, nor do i know if julio franco has intentionally not been predicted, or if they just haven't gotten to him yet.

based on the above, bonds, patterson, and stewart are the best free agents still out there, of those fk listed.

i don't think just anybody can give you 3 warp coming out of the minors, but with twice the at bats, lastings milledge would have, fwiw.

]MORP Marginal Value Above Replacement Player, as introduced in this article. MORP is modelled based on the actual behavior of recent free agent markets, and accounts for non-linearity in the market price of baseball talent (e.g. teams are willing to pay more for one 6-win player than two 3-win players). As listed in a player's PECOTA card, a player's MORP includes the major league minimum salary of $380,000 for 2007. Further, in a player's Five-Year Forecast, we assume salary inflation of 8% per year through 2010 (EXCEPTION: a player's Peak MORP does *not* include the minimum salary or the inflation adjustment.) For 2007, a player's MORP is estimated as follows: 1200000*(WARP^1.5) + 380000

[Frayed Knot]

seawolf17 wrote: So why pay for that when you get similar production for less money out of someone from your minor league system?

Not suggesting that anyone should.
And that's a large part of the problem with these guys, that they're so used to being at or near the top of the pay scale it's tough for them to mentally adjust to having to accept less.
As marathon's chart shows, teams are getting smart by not giving them the big bucks.

]nor do i know if julio franco has intentionally not been predicted, or if they just haven't gotten to him yet.

They're still searching for other 49 year olds to use as comps.

[metsmarathon]

yay, pecota updates!

hitter	90%	mean	10%	MORP
wells	5.9	1.5	-0.7	$2.23 M
lohse	5.5	2.4	-0.7	$4.45 M
garcia	4.9	2.5	0.0	$5.15 M
ortiz	1.7	0.5	-1.8	$0.60 M
milton	3.1	1.0	-2.2	$1.13 M
sele	2.2	0.7	-0.5	$1.13 M
lopez	4.0	1.7	-0.9	$2.88 M
benitez	2.7	0.9	-0.8	$1.38 M
rhodes	-	-	-	-
mesa	1.2	0.5	-1.4	$0.70 M
alfonseca	2.1	0.6	-0.6	$1.03 M

quite the sorry bunch, and still no julio franco. shocker, no? also, no arthur rhodes card (yet).

[nymr83]

Triple D, when did the following player's PED use start/end?

Year 1 91
2 113
3 100
4 119
5 129
6 131
7 147
8 160
9 149
10 140
11 138
12 141
13 107
14 108
15 85
16 96

I give you Bernie Williams, no evidence except a big jump around age 28, PED user.

[metsmarathon]

i would suggest htat if you graphed these, sosa's jump would look much more like a step change than bernie's slope

[nymr83]

then look at Maris' first two seasons as a Yankee compared to the rest of his career.

[metsmarathon]

really...?

[Guest KC]

KC: Sammy Sosa ain't no hall of famer<<<

Ny: why isn't Sosa a hall of famer?
and if your answer is "steroids," why ARE Bonds and Clemens<<<

Because I said so.

Bonds has started in like three times the number of all-star games that Sosa
has and Clemens was probably a HOF'r before he discovered dancing around
on ESPN in his super-gym proclaiming, "no one is doing this, no one is doing
this."

And that form of arguing you're using like some sort of junior salamander q
wannabe is annoying.

But that's probably just me on all counts so never mind.

[nymr83]

]Because I said so.

riiiiiiight

]Bonds has started in like three times the number of all-star games that Sosa has and Clemens was probably a HOF'r before he discovered dancing around on ESPN in his super-gym proclaiming, "no one is doing this, no one is doing this."

so when you think someone took steroids the question then becomes how great were they abovea nd beyond the normal greatness required for the hall?

]And that form of arguing you're using like some sort of junior salamander q wannabe is annoying.

how the fuck have i done anything sal-like? you made a statement which i questioned (as well as providing my next question if you gave a certain answer), you've now answered and i've asked a further question, i see no sal-like bait and switch or putting words in your mouth

[Guest KC]

I was joking with the, "I said so."

Ny: so when you think someone took steroids<<<

I didn't say that.

Ny: how the fuck have i done anything sal-like?<<<

See above.

[nymr83]

="KC"] Ny: so when you think someone took steroids<<< I didn't say that.

you said: "Clemens was probably a HOF'r before he discovered dancing around on ESPN in his super-gym proclaiming, "no one is doing this, no one is doing
this." "

i took that to mean you think he's on the roids but was a HOFer beforehand.

if your reason for Sosa not being a all of famer is not steroid related then what is it, using Sosa's numbers (either standing alone or compared to other who are in and out) as evidence?

[Guest KC]

The dancing around refers to the clip they showed on ESPN 7,249 times of
him and Andy doing their super-human old man work out. The audio was
often, "no one is doing this no one is doing this."

Numbers? Sosa started on five all-star teams ... so did Strawberry. Yay.

[Guest Triple Dee]

="KC"]The dancing around refers to the clip they showed on ESPN 7,249 times of him and Andy doing their super-human old man work out. The audio was often, "no one is doing this no one is doing this." Numbers? Sosa started on five all-star teams ... so did Strawberry. Yay.

FWIW, Baseball-Reference ranks Sosa approximately at the same level as Mike Piazza in terms of Hall of Fame standard, and significantly higher than McGwire. But I still don't think he'll get in.

Strawberry didn't make the HOF because he only played 2 seasons between 91-99 where he appeared in more than 43 games (and in those he played 63 and 101).

[Guest KC]

Yeah, picking Strawberry was my obnoxious way of picking someone close
to home and it sounds good on the surface. A straw argument. Hah.

Sosa's SIM list on bbr is a pretty HOFamey star-studded lineup.

[Guest sharpie]

Thinking about Mike Piazza being unsigned led me to thinking about the 2000 NL Champeen Mets and how few of them from that postseason are playing anymore:

Retired/cut/didn't play in MLB in 2007: Kurt Abbott, Benny Agbayani, Edgardo Alfonzo, Mike Bordick, Derek Bell, Dennis Cook, John Franco, Matt Franco, Darryl Hamilton, Lenny Harris, Bobby Jones, Al Leiter, Joe McEwing, Todd Pratt, Rick Reed, Glendon Rusch, Bubba Trammell, Robin Ventura, Turk Wendell, Rick White, Todd Zeile.

That's 21 of them. The remainder:

Armando Benitez (unsigned with less than 3 weeks til Opening Day)
Mike Piazza (unsigned with less than 3 weeks til Opening Day)
Mike Hampton (didn't play in '07 due to injury, already injured in spring training)
Timo Perez (had 90 at-bats with the Tigers last year, is a longshot to go north out of spring training this year)

That leaves only Jay Payton as a definite big-leaguer in 2008. So it goes.

[Willets Point]

Bring Benny back from Japan!

[Guest sharpie]

Well, Armando Benitez may be around this year as he signs a minor league deal with the Jays.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3287842

[seawolf17]

Armando's always been kinda round.