Johan Viola

[Frayed Knot]

The story of dealing 5 prospects for a 29 y/o Twins lefthander were too juicy to let the comparisons go ignored.

Viola turned 29 two months prior to his trade deadline day deal to the Mets for Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drummond, and Jack Savage.
Santana will turn 29 in about 5 weeks from now.


5 (complete) seasons prior to the trade/possible trade:

FV: 93-46, 1,261 IPs, 3.46 ERA
1984: 131 ERA+ (lg/season adj; 100 = lg avg), 1.16 WHiP, 6th in CY voting
1985: 106 ERA+; 1.32 WHiP;
1986: 95 ERA+; 1.38 WHiP
1987: 159 ERA+; 1.18 WHiP; CY = 6th
1988: 153 ERA+; 1.14 WHiP; CY = 1st

JS: 82-35; 1,071 IPs, 2.92 ERA
2003: 148 ERA+; 1.10 WHiP; CY = 7th
2004: 182 ERA+; 0.92 WHiP; CY = 1st
2005: 155 ERA+; 0.97 WHiP; CY = 3rd
2006: 161 ERA+; 1.00 WHiP; CY = 1st
2007: 130 ERA+; 1.07 WHiP; CY = 7th


Viola went on to pitch 2-1/2 seasons for the Mets: a decent half-season, then a top-notch (3rd in CY) full year, followed by a sub-par one.
After that he went FA having two good seasons for the Red Sox but was then essentially done at age 33. He hung around for 3 seasons after that but appeared in just 15 games combined totalling 75 innings w/a 2-5 record.

[nymr83]

interesting.

Rick Aguilera- a moderately succesful young starter in his 3 1/2 years with the Mets, the Twins would turn him into a good but not great closer for the next decade.

Kevin Tapani- only a cup of coffee i NY, turned into a slightly below average starter in MIN and CHC (think Traschel), he did eat innings most years.

David West- crapped out spectacularly with minnesota as a starter, had 2 good yaers relieving in Philly.

Tim Drummond- pitched about 100 innings in the big leagues, last played at age 25 with a 96 ERA+ in 91 innings mostly in relief, i'm not sure where he went after that

Jack Savage - never did anything.

i can't speak as to how highly rated most of these guys were back then though i remember hearing that West was a very highly regarded prospect

[smg58]

The Twins ultimately got more out of that deal than the Mets did, even with just one of the five guys really panning out.

[Valadius]

This is why I don't want to trade for Santana.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Frank Viola trade is more of an exception than a rule, I think.

Generally, I'd say that in a trade of multiple young players for an established star, the team getting the established player ends up better off.

The Jim Fregosi deal is another one of those exceptions. (And for a non-Mets trade, so is the one for Von Hayes.)

But look at the Mets trades involving Tom Seaver and Gary Carter. Some of the young players involved turned out to be okay, but not nearly as valuable as the big guy that was sent in return.

[Frayed Knot]

Not that there's any specific reason to think that the one career arc having anything to do with the other - but the biggest cautionary note in this comparison is the part about Frankie V being essentially washed up after age 33.
If Johan gets the loooong-term contract he's apparently looking for it could take him to age 36 or so at rates which haven't been approached by pitchers up to this point. That's a lotta lettuce to chomp on if he's lame or just becomes a shell of his current self by the time those later years roll around.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, the bigger risk, I think, in the proposed deal is the financial part, not the talent part.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The real cautionary notes wtih long term deals to pitchers have names like Pavano, Hampton, and Mark Davis.

[nymr83]

Kevin Brown
Chan Ho Park

[Frayed Knot]

... and others

http://cranepoolforum.qwknetllc.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=7886&highlight=pitchers

[Elster88]

Valadius wrote: This is why I don't want to trade for Santana.

That's a ridiculous thing to say. You can't look at one trade and have it dictate what you will do for the rest of time.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I thought he didn't want Santana because of Bush-Clinton-Bush.

[nymr83]

Elster88 wrote: ="Valadius"]This is why I don't want to trade for Santana. That's a ridiculous thing to say. You can't look at one trade and have it dictate what you will do for the rest of time.

unles that trade is the Seaver trade. never do that again.

[stevejrogers]

Elster88 wrote: ="Valadius"]This is why I don't want to trade for Santana. That's a ridiculous thing to say. You can't look at one trade and have it dictate what you will do for the rest of time.

Not to mention all the hindsight about who exactly the Mets gave up. Would you have rather have had Aggie over John Franco? Okay maybe Augliera turned out to be more dominant for a shorter period of time, but it's not like the Mets have been starving for even a decent closer since Augliera left.

Heck, except for after the Benitez trade the Mets have always had someone you could call a decent MLB closer since trading away Rick Augliera. Myers (who was defacto closer since the McDowell trade), Franco, Benitez, Looper, Wagner. Having a guy with some talent in the back of the pen has not been the Mets problem since 1989. Oh sure there WERE issues with all of the aforementioned, including Wagner, but if the Mets decided Rick Augliera was their future closer, people would be saying the same things about Aggie that they say today about Wagner. Very soild closer, but not that upper top tier of closer-dom.

Kevin Tapani? You are afraid of the next KEVIN TAPANI? How many Kevin Tapani types have the Mets trotted out to the hill since 1989? Tapani was small potatoes, a dime-a-dozen guy that could be had for an economical price. And again, having a soild number 2 or 3 starter has never really been the Mets problem since 1989. Part of the problem is that they've tried to make number 2s and 3s into number 1 aces, but that is a different argument.

You want to bring up Ryan for Fregosi or Kazmir for Zambrano, then its a soild argument, but Viola for Augliera does not rank among the worst trades in Met history. Even with Viola being finished at 33.

[nymr83]

]Tapani was small potatoes, a dime-a-dozen guy that could be had for an economical price

actually, guys like that get huge contracts now. see gil meche.

[stevejrogers]

Nymr83 wrote: ]Tapani was small potatoes, a dime-a-dozen guy that could be had for an economical price actually, guys like that get huge contracts now. see gil meche.

Right, good point!

[Willets Point]

Gil Meche had a good season for the lowly Royals. Would have been a good signing for the Mets last offseason.

[nymr83]

Willets Point wrote: Gil Meche had a good season for the lowly Royals. Would have been a good signing for the Mets last offseason.

20/20 hindsight, but he had his first good year since 2000 (when he pitched only 85 innings.) since then he had had ERA+ numbers of 94, 91, 82, and 99 after missing 2 years.

if omar had given him 5 years/$55M we'd have been up in arms and rightfully so. lets see how the next few years pan out before we call that a good move

[smg58]

I do think the Viola comparison shows that quantity where prospects are concerned isn't a bad thing. The Twins get three players on most people's top 100 lists, plus a fourth (Humber) who was on the lists last year and is capable of rebounding. The Yankees and Red Sox packages involved one elite prospect apiece, but both teams were reluctant to add significantly more (i.e., the Red Sox apparently never included Ellsbury and Lester in the same package, and the Yankees never added Kennedy to Hughes), and apparently lowered their offers over time. So while the Twins might have done better if they had taken best offers in December when they were playing the Yankees and Red Sox against each other, I don't think it's fair to suggest, as some people have, that a better offer was available now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I find it kind of amusing that yesterday, for the first time ever, Frank Viola was the most popular UMDB lookup for the day.

I guess one left-handed former Minnesota Cy Young winner acquired by the Mets calls to mind the previous one.

[seawolf17]

I've been playing Out of the Park Baseball for a while now, and I picked up Santana a few seasons back. Hopefully Real Santana's career doesn't fall apart the way Computer Game Santana's career did. After finishing in the Top 5 in the AL in IP and K's just about every year through 2008:

Was selected to the 2008 Allstar game...
8/1/2008: Signed a contract extension with Minnesota, $10,000,000 per year, for 4 years.
Hit first career homerun on 8/9/2008, off Dan Smith (TB)...
Was selected to the 2009 Allstar game...
Injured on 7/19/2009 with a Torn Tricep Muscle, out for 5 weeks...
Injured on 9/28/2009 with a Herniated Disc Back, out for 4-5 weeks...
Injured on 7/27/2010 with a Tight Elbow, out for 1-2 weeks...
Injured on 4/9/2011 with a Strained Bicep Muscle, out for 3-4 weeks...
Injured on 8/5/2011 with a Inflamed Rotator Cuff Muscle, out for 3-4 weeks...
Injured on 5/9/2012 with a Ruptured Tricep Tendon, out for 6 weeks...
Signed as a free agent by New York (A) on 1/31/2013 to a 3-year deal worth $778,500 per year...
Traded from New York (A) to New York (N) on 4/15/2013 (Going to NYM: P Johan Santana. Going to NYY: P Justin Duchscherer)...
Injured on 8/13/2013 with a Inflamed Elbow Ligament, out for 1-2 weeks...
Won World Series with New York (N) in 2013...
Injured on 4/29/2014 with a Sore Shoulder, out for one week...
Was claimed off waivers by San Diego on 5/12/2015.
Retired in 2016.

It all fell apart for Johan in 2010: 12-12, 5.11 was followed up by a demotion to the bullpen, where he went 3-10 with 9 saves and a 7.02 ERA in 2011. 2012 was just as mediocre, after which he signed with the Yankees; pressed into the rotation, ht went 13-4, 5.09 with the Yankees and Mets -- I picked him up in mid-season -- but dumped him on waivers after an average 2014 (13-8, 4.60 in the regular season, 1-1 in four starts with a 9.35 ERA in the postseason) and a rough start to '15 (0-2, 11.65 in six starts, totalling seventeen innings).

[Guest AG/DC]

Woo-hoo! 2013 Chamipons, baybee!

Who's your daddy?!

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'll take that 2013 Worlds Championship, though.

[seawolf17]

Frank Viola:

�I question the trade somewhat, as a fan of the Twins and not an ex-ballplayer, I guess if you�re a Minnesota fan like I am, you hope this is the best Bill [smith] could�ve done under the circumstances.�

�Carlos Gomez, he has to be comparable to a Kirby Puckett and a Torii Hunter? Good luck with that.�