Walking Hall of Famers (split from Hall of Fame Voting)

[Vic Sage]

There are about 200 players in the HOF, out of over 16,000 players in ML history (according to today's Bill Madden column).

That's about 1.25%... a very high threshhold, despite some less qualified inductees (since they are evened out by qualified excludees).

considering the approximately 1100 players in MLB last season, who are the 14 HOFers among them?

looking at players who were 30+ last season, lets consider the case for:

[u:2137c08c45]hitters:[/u:2137c08c45]
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Barry Bonds
Craig Biggio
Ken Griffey
Chipper Jones
Jeff Kent
Scott Rolen
David Ortiz
Mike Piazza
Manny Ramirez
A-Rod
I-Rod
Sammy Sosa
Ichiro
Miguel Tejada
Frank Thomas
Jim Thome

[u:2137c08c45]Pitchers:[/u:2137c08c45]
Glavine
Trever Hoffman
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
john Smoltz
Billy Wagner
Roy Halladay
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Roger Clemens

who are the lucky 14?

Designate each candidate with a "yes" "borderline" or "no", or add your own candidates (must have played last season at age 30+)

[Guest AG/DC]

Good topic. Do you mind if I split it off?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Carlos Beltran borderline yes

Lance Berkman no

Barry Bonds yes

Craig Biggio yes

Ken Griffey yes

Chipper Jones yes

Jeff Kent yes

Scott Rolen no
David Ortiz borderline

Mike Piazza yes

Manny Ramirez yes

A-Rod yes

I-Rod yes

Sammy Sosa borderline no

Ichiro yes

Miguel Tejada no

Frank Thomas yes

Jim Thome borderline

Pitchers:
Glavine yes

Trever Hoffman prolly?

Greg Maddux yup

Pedro Martinez yes

john Smoltz yes

Billy Wagner hope not

Roy Halladay borderline yes

Mariano Rivera oh sure

Curt Schilling maybe

Roger Clemens yup

[Guest AG/DC]

Fully one third of the active guys who will eventually be in the Hall may be players who haven't come close to securing their tickets. Somebody like Hanley Ramirez or some shit.

[soupcan]

Bold - yes
Italic - probably

No indication - no.

hitters:
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Barry Bonds
Craig Biggio
Ken Griffey
Chipper Jones
Jeff Kent
Scott Rolen
David Ortiz
Mike Piazza
Manny Ramirez
A-Rod
I-Rod
Sammy Sosa
Ichiro
Miguel Tejada
Frank Thomas
Jim Thome

Pitchers:
Glavine
Trever Hoffman
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
john Smoltz
Billy Wagner
Roy Halladay
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Roger Clemens


I got 11 yesses and 6 probablys



OE: Boldface Pedro.

Edited January 9, 2008 by Guest

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

You forgot to boldface Pedro.

[soupcan]

I think I forgot to italicize him.

Don't you think he needs another solid season or two to be a slam-dunk?

Nah - you're right. Boldface Pedro.

[Valadius]

You didn't boldface Ken Griffey, Jr.? Seriously???

[soupcan]

Yes, seriously.

[Vic Sage]

seriously? SERIOUSLY?

[u:f100e21f5c]KGriffey[/u:f100e21f5c]
Black Ink: Batting - 26 (Average HOFer ≈ 27)
Gray Ink: Batting - 162 (Average HOFer ≈ 144)
HOF Standards: Batting - 61.4 (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 225.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)

The most comparable careers (as listed on BaseballReference) are Frank Robinson & Willie Mays.

SERIOUSLY?

I think the only question is whether he's a 1st ballot guy or not. And i think, since he'll end up with over 600HRs and a career OPS+ of around 140, he'll probably be a 1st rounder.

[seawolf17]

There is no planet on which Ken Griffey Jr is NOT a Hall of Famer. I know he's been hurt, but come on. It's not even a question.

[Guest AG/DC]

His 30s were so disappinting, it's easy to forget how awesome his 20s were. They were wonderful. At the time of the 1994 strike, nobody could get him out.

[Vic Sage]

The 14 HOFers:

1 - Craig Biggio

2 - Ken Griffey

3 - Chipper Jones - we may hate Larry, but we can't deny him. HOF Standards = 56.4 (Avg HOFer ≈ 50) / HOF Monitor = 141.5 (Likely HOFer > 100). At age 35, coming off a good year, his numbers can still climb.

4 - Mike Piazza

5 - Manny Ramirez

6 - A-Rod

7 - I-Rod - he was the best catcher in the AL for about a decade.

8 - Frank Thomas - With 10 seasons in the top 10 in OPS+ (7 in the top 2!), 9 seasons in top 10 in Runs Created and in MVP voting (winning 2), and almost 1000 games played at 1B (with 2 silver slugger awards), one would have to be an idiot to hold his DHing against him.

9 -Tom Glavine - With 10 x in top10 ERA+, 11 x top 10 in Wins, 6x top 3 in Cy Young voting (winning 2), with his hitting, fielding, post-season performances, its hard to make much of a case against him, try as i might.

10 - Greg Maddux

11 - Pedro Martinez

12 - john Smoltz - with 10 x in top 10 ERA+, Ks and WHIP, and 5x top 10 in CY (1 win), not to mention becoming a closer and winning the rolaids in 02, he seems a more than borderline candidate.

13 - Mariano Rivera - a rich man's Trevor Hoffman, with record-setting post-season numbers.

14 -Ichiro - 7 consecutive seasons in the top 2 in hits, top5 in SBs, and with a GG each of those years. If he puts up another 3 good years, which is likely given his conditioning, he'll have to go, not to mention his career's historical importance to the game as the 1st great player to come over from Japan.

borderline cases:

* Carlos Beltran - he's 30 and young enough to put up another 5 years like 2006. If he does, he could go. But if he puts up 5 more years like 2007, then he'll be an Andre Dawson-type borderline case.

* Jeff Kent - he didn't start making a case until he went to SF in 1997 and, at age 29, started hitting behind one of the greatest hitters of all time. From 97-05, he was the best hitting 2bman in the game. I don't know if he was good enough, long enough. He can't help himself, like Sandberg did, with his defense.

* Jim Thome - not as dominant a hitter as The Big Hurt, but still 500+ HRs, and a career OPS+ of 150 [HOF Standards = 50.3 (Avg HOFer ≈ 50) / HOF Monitor =139.5 (Likely HOFer > 100)]

* Curt Schilling - a post-season legend, injuries have hurt his career numbers but he still has 10 x top10 ERA+, WHIP, Ks, plus 4x top 5 CY voting, and a WS MVP. He was Drysdale to Big Unit's Koufax and brought the bloody sock to Boston.

* Trever Hoffman - One of the NL's best closers for 15 years, but he's more Lee Smith than Mariano. Still, Gossage may have opened the door even wider.

* Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa - The reporters have shown with McGuire that they won't vote the `Roid Boys in... at least not right away.

No:

Larry Berkman - too many injuries, too little time.

David Ortiz - he's put up 5 great years in boston, but he'll need another 5, and his body isn't going to hold up.

Scott Rolen - see Berkman.

Miguel Tejada - overrated. In his best season, 2004, he was 8th in runs created but 4th in outs made.

Roy Halladay - some peaks, but not enough. see Berkman, Rolen.

Billy Wagner - a poor man's Trevor Hoffman.

[seawolf17]

I agree 100% with Vic.

[Guest AG/DC]

I like his selections also, but I note a slight paucity of pitchers in his select, and only Rivera can be said to be close to the middle of his career.

This may be because:

1) Few great pitchers have been allowed to emerge in the steroid era.

2) Pitchers' careers are so volatile, it's hard to project where they may finish until they get close to the finish line.

3) It's just how things have shaken out.

I notice Randy Johnson isn't included, so you may have to knock out Ichiro for now.

[Gwreck]

AG/DC wrote: Fully one third of the active guys who will eventually be in the Hall may be players who haven't come close to securing their tickets. Somebody like Hanley Ramirez or some shit.

Indeed. The names that immediately jump to mind are Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.

[metsmarathon]

AG/DC wrote: I like his selections also, but I note a slight paucity of pitchers in his select, and only Rivera can be said to be close to the middle of his career. This may be because: 1) Few great pitchers have been allowed to emerge in the steroid era. 2) Pitchers' careers are so volatile, it's hard to project where they may finish until they get close to the finish line. 3) It's just how things have shaken out. I notice Randy Johnson isn't included, so you may have to knock out Ichiro for now.

there are fewer than half as many pitchers in the hof as hitters.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I'm too lazy to look up stats right now so this is my vote off the top of my head.

hitters:
Carlos Beltran - No, still has a shot, but needs several more strong seasons.
Lance Berkman - No
Barry Bonds - No. Should have steered clear of the juice.
Craig Biggio - Yes
Ken Griffey - Yes
Chipper Jones - No. Good, but not great.
Jeff Kent -Yes. One of the best offensive secondbaseman ever.
Scott Rolen - No
David Ortiz - No, but could possibvly get there with a few more good years.
Mike Piazza - Yes.
Manny Ramirez -Yes. A great hitter. One of the most dominant of his era.
A-Rod - Yes.
I-Rod -Borderline , but I'll say yes.
Sammy Sosa -No
Ichiro -No, not yet, but will likely get there with the next few seasons.
Miguel Tejada -No
Frank Thomas -No
Jim Thome -No. Good slugger, but not that good.

Pitchers:
Glavine - Yes
Trever Hoffman -Yes
Greg Maddux -Yes
Pedro Martinez -Yes. Truly dominant poitcher for many years.
john Smoltz -Yes.
Billy Wagner -No
Roy Halladay -No. Needs more good years.
Mariano Rivera -Yes. Dominant closer.
Curt Schilling -No.
Roger Clemens -No. Tremendous talent, but should have styed juice free.

[soupcan]

Vic Sage wrote: I think the only question is whether he's a 1st ballot guy or not. And i think, since he'll end up with over 600HRs and a career OPS+ of around 140, he'll probably be a 1st rounder.

What I meant by 'probably' was that I don't necessarily think he's a first ballot guy.

He may be, but because of his injuries and his plain inability to play as a result I don't think he's looked at in the same light as he was when he was in his 20's and tearing everything up.

I suppose I look at him as a victim of his own early success.

[Vic Sage]

AG/DC wrote: I notice Randy Johnson isn't included, so you may have to knock out Ichiro for now.

I didn't realize The Big Eunich played last season. If so, then i would agree that its Ichi that gets knocked down to "borderline".

[Vic Sage]

"Rockin' Doc":

]I'm too lazy to look up stats right now so this is my vote off the top of my head... Frank Thomas -No

I suggest you DO look up the stats for the Big Hurt.
Then explain to me why you think he's a clear "no".

[Vic Sage]

AG/DC wrote: I like his selections also, but I note a slight paucity of pitchers in his select, and only Rivera can be said to be close to the middle of his career.

and 3 of the 5 (6, if you include RJ), were on the Braves staff.