I'll Try Anything in April

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Sorry Elster didn;t mean to use a strawman. I knew your example was rhetorical but as I read it was thinking, "but what if heilman's truly hurt?" That's fodder for another whole thread.

]and the win expectancy went from 0.699 to 0.268 after howard finished circling the bases

.

Is that published in a handly online chart somewhere?

[metsmarathon]

sorry. forgot my reference:

http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

[soupcan]

What we're debating here is what is best for a baseball team over the course of a 162 game regular season in order to put that team in the best possible position to win in the postseason.

Again I bring up the fact that Willie Randolph has been a player, coach and manager in the major leagues for 32 years. He's had great personal success and has been on teams that have had great success.

I find it odd that despite this resume people doubt that he knows what it takes to become a winning team.

I understand if you simply don't like him or question an in-game move here and there but making claims that a lay person could manage a major league team just as well (if not better!) than a guy with that kind of experience is silly.

Anyone can point to percentages and statistics and make claims that because of whatever numbers they come up with this call should have been made on that play. This player should have been in the game instead of that one. Do you really think its that easy? How did that work out for the Red Sox a few years back when the grand Poobah of statistics deemed that a closer by committee would, based on statistics, be just as effective as one top-notch closer?

The point is that baseball is a game of intangibles as well as numbers. A guy that's been around the game for 32 years is in a much better place to understand that than someone that just hasn't.

If Willie Randolph thinks that having Burgos pitch to Howard with runners on base in a close game in the 6th inning of the 7th game of the season will somehow benefit the team at some point in the season then I'm good with that.

I've been watching this game for about 32 years myself and I know a bit about it but I would never assume that I know more about it than a guy like Randolph. I don't think that there is any substitute for experience.

If you don't like his explanations for why he does or doesn't do what you think he should or shouldn't do then I don't know what to tell you. It's obviously part of his managing style to not explain hinmself for whatever reason. I'd love to know the answers too but I'm not going to assume he's an idiot because he's not forthcoming with the press.

One more time - the bottom line is his won-loss record, and any Met fan who has a problem with that is being unreasonable with their expectations. Saying that 'anyone can manage this team' or that they win in spite of the manager is being unfair. The guy is doing what he was hired to do the way he wants to do it and he's succeeding.

[metirish]

Burgos pitched to Utley,a good left handed hitter,so I suppose I might ask why Willie didn't bring in Feliciano right there to face him,I'll take solace in the fact that Burgos got to a 2-2 count on Howard and that Howard hit a good pitch over the fence.

[nymr83]

]To me the argument that makes more sense is trying to rest the pen. (Did anyone else read that Heilman has tendonitis in his elbow?!?!)

of course, if resting the pen is your excuse (and its a valid one) you've left open the question of why you didn't walk howard to face burrell.

soupcan: wow. if this guy batted rey ordonez 4th would you still defend him because "well he's been in the game forever so he must know what he's doing." this was as bad an in-game management decision as i've seen. it deserves criticism.

[duan]

metirish wrote: Burgos pitched to Utley,a good left handed hitter,so I suppose I might ask why Willie didn't bring in Feliciano right there to face him,I'll take solace in the fact that Burgos got to a 2-2 count on Howard and that Howard hit a good pitch over the fence.

I'm with that except for the good pitch. It was a terrible pitch; in a terrible location.

[Guest iramets]

]I'm not going to assume he's an idiot because he's not forthcoming with the press.

Funny--that's exactly what I'm going to do (and have done) with any bone-headed moves Willie makes: try to restrain my criticism until I hear no explanations from him, and then conclude: stupid action, no explanation= idiot. Of course, by now this pattern has become so often repeated, I may just start with "Idiot" until shown otherwise.

BTW dont sell yourself short, Soupcan. Before he took this gift from Fred Wilpon, you had exactly as much managerial experience as Willie, and probably a good deal of sounder judgment and general knowledge.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]That's what happens when the Mets have an off day....

Truer words have never been spoken. Imagine the bloodshed if we'd lost!

I'm just going to hope that Willie learned whatever he wanted to learn and he'll never ever do it again.

]I thought the consensus on Burgos' MLB performance to date was that it needed some mental adjustment for his being rushed into the big leagues and the developmental corners cut in Kansas City. The friggin guy is younger than Joe Smith after all (a few weeks anyway).

Well, his mental problem only seemed to be against lefties, since his stats against righties are pretty good:

86 IP, 7.53 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.181 K/BB, .231 BAA, 1.05 HR/9

The HRs are a little high, as is his walk rate, and his K rate is a little low, but overall, that's pretty darn effective. Compared to lefties:

54 IP, 11.5 K/9, 5.83 BB/9, 1.97 K/BB, .322 BAA, 2.16 HR/9

And damn, I hadn't noticed the K rate against lefties until now! Still, he's obviously all or nothing against them, and mostly nothing. 2.16 HR/9 is amazingly bad, as is his walk rate and BAA--he's allowing exactly 2 baserunners per inning, which is atrocious.

Anyway, the biggest thing that jumps out at me when looking at his splits overall is why on earth he was left in to face so many lefties.

[Guest iramets]

Rotblatt wrote: ]That's what happens when the Mets have an off day.... Truer words have never been spoken. Imagine the bloodshed if we'd lost!

That's kinda my point. Those of you who are cool with this move, just imagine please if Howard's HR was the final score of the game: we'd be equating Burgos with Benitez, excoriating Willie, blablabla--and he had no way of knowing that the Mets would score big in the late innings. (If he did, I'd like to hear about it.) This place would be going nuts, and rightly so.

[soupcan]

="Nymr83"]soupcan: wow. if this guy batted rey ordonez 4th would you still defend him because "well he's been in the game forever so he must know what he's doing." this was as bad an in-game management decision as i've seen. it deserves criticism.

Careful NYM, I think cooby and I are the two biggest Rey-Rey fans out there.

The manager can do whatever he wants to do whether or not it makes sense to me or not as long as the team wins on a consistent basis. And, no, I don't mean barely over .500 I mean win at the clip they did last year. This team is built to be a championship contender and as long as they reach that goal, he can bat Ordonez fourth if he wants to. Willie's record as a manager in the 2 years he's been with the Mets has been a winning one, as a result he will continue to get the benefit of the doubt from me.

I may not understand why he makes a particular move or disagree with a move he makes but I'll stop short of calling him dumb or thinking he's an idiot simply because he's proven that he is a more than capable ML manager.

It's when his questionable moves start costing the team games, again on a consistent basis, that I would then begin to have a problem with them and him. To date though, that's not the case with Randolph.

[soupcan]

="iramets"]Those of you who are cool with this move, just imagine please if Howard's HR was the final score of the game: we'd be equating Burgos with Benitez, excoriating Willie, blablabla--and he had no way of knowing that the Mets would score big in the late innings. (If he did, I'd like to hear about it.) This place would be going nuts, and rightly so.

Absolutely it would've sucked if the Mets lost that game but how about the fact that it was the 6th and not the 8th or 9th, that the Mets were getting into the Phillie bullpen, that the manager knows his team and maybe he had a feel (not that he knew, but knew that the possibility would increase) for how his team might respond in the next few innings. Maybe he thought it was a good time to take a risk. Looking back on it, it was.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

iramets wrote: Those of you who are cool with this move, just imagine please if Howard's HR was the final score of the game: we'd be equating Burgos with Benitez, excoriating Willie, blablabla--and he had no way of knowing that the Mets would score big in the late innings. (If he did, I'd like to hear about it.) This place would be going nuts, and rightly so.

Do you think we'll ever get around to suggesting the offense bears some responsibility? Opportunities already thrown away by the O in that game could have Burgos-proofed that inning from the start.

And, will we stop pretending the 6th inning is akin to the 8th or 9th?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

And the thought that April is the same as September is equally bogus.

Yes, all games count equally in the standings. But you can't manage 162 games as if your team's back is to the wall.

Would we all freak out if Easley got a start at third base next week? Of course not. But if he got a start in a game against Atlanta on September 30 with Wright healthy and the Mets tied for first with the Braves, we'd think Willie was nuts. (Or stupid.)

[Theoldmole]

]But you can't manage 162 games as if your team's back is to the wall.

That's how Billy Martin managed. And he had some success. but generally did more harm than good to the teams he managed.

[soupcan]

Yup. Martin won but he burned his teams out.

[Guest cooby]

soupcan wrote: Careful NYM, I think cooby and I are the two biggest Rey-Rey fans out there. .

You got that right

[Guest iramets]

He's available, you know. Maybe we could upgrade by dropping the lazy slob we've got at ss and get Rey-Rey back.

[soupcan]

If Willie thinks its the right thing to do.....

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

The best thing I can say about Rey Ordonez is that he never raised my blood pressure.

[metirish]

I'm done with this thread,thankfully there is a game tonight,I didn't like the move but I certainly don't think Randolph is an idiot or not worthy of being a MLB manager ,he's a bit stubborn though.

[Guest Rotblatt]

]I'm done with this thread,thankfully there is a game tonight,I didn't like the move but I certainly don't think Randolph is an idiot or not worthy of being a MLB manager ,he's a bit stubborn though.

I totally agree with all of that, Irish.

Not the end of the world, and like I said earlier, I think Willie's gotten much better at managing the bullpen in general. Overall, I think he's a an above average manager at this point. In terms of tactical ability, I'd put him at below average, but in terms of managing his players, I think he's excellent--he really does seem to have their respect and is able to motivate them effectively. And given that he's shown the ability to grow in the tactical department, I think the dude's got a pretty high ceiling. I mean, you can learn the tactical stuff, but to be able to walk into the clubhouse and command respect right off the bat--that's a gift, and one I think is extremely useful for a manager.

Oh, and I totally forgot it was the 6th inning--in my head it was the 7th, so y'all can rachet back my righteous indignation by a factor of, oh, let's say 3.

[duan]

what i've liked about how the mets have played so far is that they've
1. Stomped all over teams
2. Fought out a couple of hard wins
3. In games that they've lost they've got themselves in at least a position to get the runs back.

They haven't been outplayed significantly in ANY game. Any one they've lost has been nip & tuck.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Soupcan - "Careful NYM, I think cooby and I are the two biggest Rey-Rey fans out there."

Not exactly something to brag about.

[nymr83]

it is in the world of "i'll stick my fingers in my ears and avoid listening to anyone who has stats to point out to me"

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

iramets - "Maybe we could upgrade by dropping the lazy slob we've got at ss and get Rey-Rey back."

Soupcan - "If Willie thinks its the right thing to do....."

Hyperbole in an argument taken to the extreme and it illicits a response equivalent to "whatever dude".

If somehow Willie did ever chose to replace Jose Reyes at shortstop with Rey rdonez, I would seriously have to question Randolph's sanity.

[Guest cooby]

Nymr83 wrote: it is in the world of "i'll stick my fingers in my ears and avoid listening to anyone who has stats to point out to me"

Listen, NYMR, I have secretly admired your very cleverly worded arguments for months now (I hope you're in law school or something, you should be if you're not) even if I don't agree with them but don't pick on Rey Rey!

Also, something else you should know is that soupcan and I are also two of Jose Reyes' biggest fans...

[soupcan]

Nymr83 wrote: it is in the world of "i'll stick my fingers in my ears and avoid listening to anyone who has stats to point out to me"

Eat me.

When did I say I ignore stats? When did I say that I agree with whatever Randolph does? I've tried every way I know how to explain my point of view and you obviously just don't get it.

You strike me as a fairly intelligent guy but yet you don't seem to be able to see the forest for the trees.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Even Billy Martin has been known to leave a pitcher trying to establlish himself out there in adverse conditions, knowing that it may hurt the team in the short run, but would hopefully be paid back in the long run.

Davey Johnson did. Bobby Valentine did.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

metsmarathon wrote: sorry. forgot my reference: http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

Neat toy

[Guest Edgy DC]

Fucking great toy.