I'll Try Anything in April

[metirish]

soupcan wrote: ="Nymr83"]it is in the world of "i'll stick my fingers in my ears and avoid listening to anyone who has stats to point out to me" Eat me. When did I say I ignore stats? When did I say that I agree with whatever Randolph does? I've tried every way I know how to explain my point of view and you obviously just don't get it. You strike me as a fairly intelligent guy but yet you don't seem to be able to see the forest for the trees.

Soupcan and Joe Morgan, not stat guys...

Can some one please explain how that toy works...thanks

[Guest Edgy DC]

If in 1000 games in the given time period, a home team has a runner on first in the bottom of the fifth with no outs and the score tied, the engine searches those 1000 games and finds out that the home team has won in 630 of them, giviing a user inquiring about that situation a .630 chance that the home team will win.

See the thread I'm about to launch...

[metsmarathon]

way way back when i first discovered that toy, i was thinking of using it in my schaefer voting somehow, but realized soon that it was an even more tedious method than i had currently employed. maybe now that i've tidied up a bit of my work, i can play, just for fun...

i also think that it would greatly exaggerate late-game heroics while minimizing early game action. but it could be fun to try.

[Guest Edgy DC]

And why shouldn't late-game heroics get exaggerated?

[metsmarathon]

um, i'm not sure. for the same reason that games in april are just teh same as important as games in september.

oh... crap...

[Guest Edgy DC]

High leverage in late and close situations.

[nymr83]

As i noted in the IGT tonight, Willie let Pelfrey hit with 2 ours and a runner (the tying run) on 2nd in the bottom of the 5th. Pelfrey had thrown 83 pitches.
I'd likely have left him in but i was curious if anyone feels pinch-hitting is the better move when you consider than Pelfrey a) is likely to pitch only 1 more inning given his pitch count and is at least half as likely to drive in the run than a pinch hitter.

[Frayed Knot]

I wouldn't PH there based just on not wanting to miss that situation.
There's already 2 outs, it's only a 1-run defecit, and you've still got 4 more cracks at it.

If it's the 6th inning then maybe, beyond that almost definitely.

[Guest iramets]

For the record, Howie Rose (I think) just commended Willie for his "candor" in saying about Monday's game, "You can't manage every game like it;s the seventh game of the World Series." I.e., April games don't count as much as September games. You don't manage every game to win it? Maybe so, but if you manage to lose the game, you might find you need it (or need all of the games you managed to lose) when it counts in September. The corollary to Willie's statement is finishing three games out and then claiming that you gave it your best shot all season long and can't have any regrets about the way you managed all the games.

[Guest Edgy DC]

="iramets"]I.e., April games don't count as much as September games.

I disagree with your i.e..

[Guest iramets]

="Edgy DC"] ="iramets"]I.e., April games don't count as much as September games. I disagree with your i.e..

Would you care to to translate that into English then? Willie's chief rhetorical device seems to be hyperbole: "He's not Babe Ruth."

Uh, did I claim that he was? Ryan Howard IS a formidable lefty slugger--isn't that a sufficient argument against leaving Burgos in the game? "You can't manage every game like it's the seventh game of the World Series."

Uh, who says you do? But dont you try to win every game? Don't you seek to avoid making boneheaded moves in April and in September?

By creating rhetorical strawmen, and then demolishing them, Willie thinks he's winning arguments. And he is, but the arguments he's winning are with himself. His real questioners just roll their eyes at this weak shit.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

Haven't opened this thread in a few days, I'm a little hurt that coobsoup
never invited me to the defender of Rey meetings. I kinda had an (albeit
fizzeled given how things turned out) online defender of Rey legacy.

[Guest Edgy DC]

iramets wrote: ="Edgy DC"]Would you care to to translate that into English then? Willie's chief rhetorical device seems to be hyperbole: "He's not Babe Ruth." Uh, did I claim that he was? Ryan Howard IS a formidable lefty slugger--isn't that a sufficient argument against leaving Burgos in the game?

None of that is what we're talking about.

iramets wrote: "You can't manage every game like it's the seventh game of the World Series." Uh, who says you do?

It's a rhetorical device.

iramets wrote: But dont you try to win every game? Don't you seek to avoid making boneheaded moves in April and in September? By creating rhetorical strawmen, and then demolishing them, Willie thinks he's winning arguments.

More or less true, and the Barry Bonds thing is of little to no use, though you create rhetorical strawman also. I just disagree with your i.e., which is sort of trying to build a strawman argument also. Nobody claims "April games don't count as much as September games." Certainly not Willie.

[Guest iramets]

Edgy DC wrote: you create rhetorical strawman also.

I do, though I'm usually trying to be funny when I do. Humor is not Willie's friend. He's about the most humorless, thin-skinnned, mean-spirited manager the Mets have had since Dallas Green.

Edgy DC wrote: Nobody claims "April games don't count as much as September games." Certainly not Willie.

Actually, I think there have been several people in this thread who have made that claim, and seemed to mean it literally.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

Thin-skinned and mean-spirited????

He's nothing of the sort.

[nymr83]

I don't know where "mean-spirited" is coming from?

[Guest Edgy DC]

"Willie, you went with Easley at second today. Should we look for him to go against lefties regularly."

"Fuck off and die."

"I'm sorry. I'm not questioning your choices. Just trying to clarify what they..."

"Stop talking. Don't even look at me. Can somebody get this faggot out of here?"

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I thuink he means churlish. I agree with that.

He's a jock at heart and probably always saw writers as the enemy or at best a necessary evil, and by barely tolerating them he's at least meeting his challenges honestly.

[Guest iramets]

That's what I wrote.

If you'd like elaboration, when he gets asked a standard question (such as "Willie, why did you pinch hit for soandso in the seventh?") he assumes that the reporter asking the question is his enemy, is asking him the question to show him up, doesn't know jackshit about baseball, and the resulting answer usually reflects all of that attitude. That's what I mean by thin-skinned. Listen to Joe Torre handling the same kinds of (usually innocuous) questions, and you'll see what I'm saying. It takes a lot of doing to get under Torre's skin.

Mean-spirited also refers to his asssumption that the media is out to make him look bad. Understanding that the reporters have jobs to do, that their readers are curious about the whys and wherefores of the manager's decisions, that good people can hold differing views on baseball strategy without implying negative things about each other personally, that reporters may not be privy to certain bits of information that Willie has, that reporters don't write the hedlines or photo captions, that reporters sometimes make innocent mistakes on deadline, etc.--all of this would make Willie's PR relations much better, but I don't think he has it in him to be understanding about any of this. He's too mistrustful and mean-spirited, I think, as a human being.

OE: mainly typoes.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'll buy most of that. Ceraintly churlish. Pre-emptively defensive.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

I don't look for a manager to answer everything directly, and I'm not suspicious
of him if he doesn't. Why should he, and I'm still pissed that the underlying theme
is he's dumb and defensive.

Asking to watch Joe Torre and how he handles stuff ain't exactly gonna put me on
the path to baseball managing righteousness anytime soon either.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I'm there, too.

[nymr83]

]and I'm still pissed that the underlying theme is he's dumb and defensive.

i think defensive is a VERY good description of Willie with the press, we can lay off the "dumb" though.

[Guest cooby]

Kid Carsey wrote: Haven't opened this thread in a few days, I'm a little hurt that coobsoup never invited me to the defender of Rey meetings. I kinda had an (albeit fizzeled given how things turned out) online defender of Rey legacy.

Another one scheduled for the 19th, KC. Be there or be square.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

ny: >>>i think defensive is a VERY good description of Willie with the press<<<

I don't see it, I'll look for it.

[nymr83]

Ordonez- 12 homers and a .310 SLG
Hampton- 15 homers and a .354 SLG

thats all I have to say

[Guest iramets]

I'm not asking you to admire Torre. But he's much more skillful at parrying questions. If Torre had risked the Burgos-vs-Ryan matchup (I'm not sure he would have, but let's say he would have), it might have gone like this:

Mad Dog (or Other Schmuck): ""Joe, I gotta ask ya. Burgos against Ryan Howard? Jeez! I mean. Come on, Joe. What's up with that?"

JT: "I was gambling, Chris. I felt that Burgos's confidence would be terrific if he could get past Howard in a tough spot. Unfortunately, he got his location a little off on that one pitch, and Ryan jacked it. He's a hell of a power hitter--you've got to tip your cap sometimes."

MD: "But, Joe! Aren't ya saying, you know, that now Burgos' confidence is shot? I mean, your move backfired! It blew up in your face! The kid found out how bad a pitcher he is now. Isn't he going to be useless for the rest of his career, and it 's all your fault, at this point? Jeez! That was a dumb move, don't you agree?"

JT: "I don't think so, Chris. I think Amby knows how much I like him, to have used him in that spot, and I've spoken to him and told him how much respect him, so I don't think we have any long-standing issues. But Amby feels terrible about giving up that HR--anyone would. He's a great young player, and he'll have wonderful days ahead of him."

MD: "But what if this one loss comes back to kill ya in September? Say if you finish a game out of the playoffs. You'll feel pretty stupid then, for sure."

JT: "Maybe. But we didn't lose this game, Chris, remember? I gambled, I lost on that one decision--I was hoping to stretch out my pen a little bit, but I ended up using Feliciano in the 6th anyway, as it turned out--, but luckily my players got us back into the game. But if we finish one game out, I'm sure there will be moves I made during the season that cost us a game here or there, Chris. You always find some blame if you finish just out of the money, and I'm sure some of it would be blame that belongs to me. I just hope that doesn't happen and I'm trying to do whatever I can to see that it doesn't. Thanks for asking, though, Chris."

[Guest Edgy DC]

Jeez, I even hypothetical Russo is an idiot.

[Guest Kid Carsey]

I ain't looking for parrying, I'm looking for W's. And when we're not getting a
W, I ain't gonna start three threads about one move why we didn't. I ain't gonna
attack the managers character, and I'm certainly not gonna compare him, his actions,
his motives, his character flaws, his hair style, etc. to Joe Torre.

[Guest iramets]

Kid Carsey wrote: I ain't gonna start three threads about one move.

That's good. I ain't, either. FTR, I started exactly one thread since Monday on the subject of Willie's managing, and in it I opined that he costs the Mets about three wins per year, in my view.