I don't like the names I'm hearing

[MFS62]

Matsuzaka could really break the bank.
I've sen estimates that it could cost a major league team $15-20 million just to obtain his negotiating rights from his Japanese club. That would be in addition to the money they would have to spend to sign him. Is he really worth an A-Rod sized contract?

Signing him would make it nearly impossible to address other needs. He sounds like a better fit/ more likely a signee for the Yankees. They have several high priced contracts coming off their payroll, they seem to be set in the lineup for next year and pitching is their #1 need.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

Not that I'm big on the expenses of this posting racket, but that would not amount to an A-Rod-sized deal.

[metirish]

] Signing him would make it nearly impossible to address other needs.

says who, the Mets have plenty of money and IMO if Omar goes after him it's to get him not just to say he tried.

[Guest Rotblatt]

MFS62 wrote: Matsuzaka could really break the bank. I've sen estimates that it could cost a major league team $15-20 million just to obtain his negotiating rights from his Japanese club. That would be in addition to the money they would have to spend to sign him. Is he really worth an A-Rod sized contract?

It doesn't sound like peeps expect Matsuzaka's contract to run more than $12M per year once he's signed, and closer to $10M. People expect the length to be 4 or 5 years. So if we won the posting process for $20 and sign him to a 5-year deal at $10M per year, we'd essentially be paying him $14M per year--only $10M of which would count towards the salary cap dealeo.

Now, personally, I expect the winning team to offer more than $20M, but I think an average per year salary of $10 is about right.

Frankly, I don't think $14M per year is too much to pay for a young, hard throwing pitcher with a LONG history of success in Japan. And even if it baloons up to $17M (after posting $), it's still nowhere near A-Rod money. Although at that point, I would agree that we're paying too much.

[TransMonk]

Dont get me wrong...I have no reason to believe that Matsuzaka is worth breaking the bank. I only want to make a bid and if it turns into war of overpaying (which it probably will), then the Yanks can have him. But he's worth a look.

Is Zito overrated? Compared to what? Trachsel, Maine, Schmidt, Mulder, Perez?

These are the starting pitchers we have under contract right now:

Maine
Perez
Bannister
Pelfrey
Soler

I highly doubt Trachsel or O Hernandez will be back and I know Zambrano won't. Pedro's out until mid-season. Glavine right now is a question mark.

No, I don't think Zito's overrated.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

TransMonk wrote: These are the starting pitchers we have under contract right now: Maine Perez Bannister Pelfrey Soler

That's rather sobering.

I agree, there's no way Trachsel returns, but I'm not convinced that we won't be seeing Orlando Hernandez again. I'd say he's about 50-50 to return, especially considering that list you posted.

The Mets are going to spend some money on starters this winter. I'd guess they'll try for one or two "big splashes" and then grab a few guys in their 30's who might be available cheap.

I can't imagine them spending $14 million to bring Glavine back, but the Braves won't pay him that much either. I really don't know which team Glavine will pitch for next year, but if he decides he'd rather stay with the Mets, that $14 million won't get in the way.

[metirish]

From The Atlanta Journal.

] Glavine return to Braves unlikely By DAVID O'BRIEN The Atlanta Journal-Constitution Published on: 10/23/06 Detroit � While there is a chance Tom Glavine could return to the Braves in 2007, the veteran pitcher probably would have to accept a significantly smaller salary than he'd get if he stays with the Mets. And that seems unlikely. Glavine, who has 290 wins and will turn 41 during spring training, told reporters Friday he would talk to his family about whether to stay with the Mets or return to the Braves, the only other team he says he'd pitch for. He won 242 games and two Cy Young Awards with the Braves between 1987-2002. The Braves and his agent say they haven't talked yet; if they did, there could be tampering charges because Glavine is still under contract with the Mets. Agent Gregg Clifton said Sunday he expects to talk this week with Mets general manager Omar Minaya. With Pedro Martinez out for much of next season, Minaya has made it a priority to retain Glavine, who was 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA this season and 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in three postseason starts. Glavine has a pair of 2007 options on his contract with the Mets � a player option for $7.5 million, which he is expected to turn down by the Nov. 10 deadline, and a team option at $14 million, which has a Nov. 20 deadline. He also has a $2 million All-Star clause, meaning he could make $16 million next season if the team option were exercised, which isn't expected to occur. The Mets and Glavine would probably have to work a compromise between those salaries. There is a gentlemen's agreement that the Mets wouldn't unilaterally exercise their option and force him to stay if he wants to return to Atlanta. But even at, say, $10 million, the left-hander would probably be too expensive for the Braves, unless much of it were deferred.

[Vic Sage]

Elster88 wrote: Am I the only one who thinks Zito is overrated?

while he was better his first 3 full seasons than his last 3, this is a 29-year old LHP who has made no less than 34 starts and 200+ IP for the last 6 years, with an ERA a full run better than the league average during his career (ERA+ 127).

He's not a total #1 ACE stud (at least not over the last 3 years), but he's certainly very good and would immediately fill OUR #1 roll. The fact that he'll likely get PAID as a total #1 Ace stud should give us pause, however, and i wouldn't go after him at ANY cost.

Ditto Matsuzaka.

[Farmer Ted]

Am I the only one who thinks this Glavine-to-Atlanta thing is a sham? Sure, he'd see his kids more often and who wouldn;'t want that? But who'd he have a better chance of getting 10 wins with? He'll be back next year. Atlanta is so 90s.

[metsmarathon]

not that they should be at the top of the list of pitchers for next year, but what about ted lilly or mark buehrle?

um, the rest of the pitching field doesnt really interest me, aside form the bigger names that are already out there.

[metirish]

Mark Buehrle is intriqing,why have the Sox not tied him up?

[TransMonk]

metirish wrote: Mark Buehrle is intriqing,why have the Sox not tied him up?

Trachsel had a better ERA than him this year. Although, he has had much better subsequent years. Did Buehrle just have an off year, or are his best days behind him?

[smg58]

I'd like to know what happened to Buehrle the second half this year (his ERA was 3.22 at the end of June); he went from good to awful overnight, and so far I've heard no good reason why. I was surprised they didn't tie him up before then, but now the Sox look smart for waiting. I'm guessing they pick up the option because it's not prohibitive, but he's a question mark going into this year.

There are two ways of looking at Zito:
1. He's been a good pitcher the past three seasons but not an elite one.
2. The fact that the drop in his numbers came when Peterson left for here is not a coincidence.

I'm willing to bet on two, assuming the total asking prices of Zito and Matsuzaka fall into the same territory (the $70M over five years looks about right), which I think is likely. But I'll take either.

[MFS62]

="Edgy DC"]Not that I'm big on the expenses of this posting racket, but that would not amount to an A-Rod-sized deal.

Well, this is what I based my statement on. I've read on various places:

The posting fee might go as high as $30 million.
Boras is his agent, so I think he'll get close to, if not more than, the $15/yr deal Scott got for Chan Ho Park.
He might sign for 4 years.

So, if you pro-rate $30 million over four years, that's $7.5 million per year.
Add that to $15 million per year, that totals $22.5 million per. And that does not include incentives.

And that is pretty close to the first years of A-Rod's contract.

Later

[nymr83]

i'd pass on 15 a year for 4 years even without the posting. the guy is an unknown despite his success in Japan, you can probably have Zito for less than that and money left.

[Guest heep]

Do not disregard Mulder. He is up for free agency as well, right? After a poor season and coming off surgery, we could sign him for a bargain.

He is young, 30, prime, but also a gamble. I always like him better than Zito.

Is he off the radar?

[nymr83]

i'd need more info on his injury before i endorse that.
Peterson did coach him for years, so if he'd be willing to work out for him, and he ok'd Mulder, i'd take his word for it that the guy is ok.

[metirish]

Is Mulder really a FA, it seems like only a few years ago that he got traded.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Mulder didn't work with Peterson as well as Zito and Hudson did.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Mulder worked well with Scully.

[Frayed Knot]

]The posting fee might go as high as $30 million. Boras is his agent, so I think he'll get close to, if not more than, the $15/yr deal Scott got for Chan Ho Park. He might sign for 4 years.

The posting fee is one thing since you've got to top the other bids in order to even get in the game.
But the per/year salary is something else. It's tough to figure that it'll get up to $15mil because pitcher & agent would have no way of playing one team off against another. The winning team could simply say no, get their posting fee back and move on to 'Plan B'. The only way of getting the team to up their offer is to threaten to play in Japan one more year and do it all over again next year when he'd be a true FA - but if they thought that was a better strategy then they wouldn't be trying to make the move now.

[MFS62]

FK, How likely do you think it would be if a team ante'd up $30 million for the rights to negotiate with him, then couldn't reach agreement (as in pay something close to his asking price) with him?
If they want to flush $30 mil down the toilet, let them send it to me instead.

Later

[nymr83]

they get the 30 million back if they cant reah a deal, or at least thats my understanding.

[Frayed Knot]

Nymr83 wrote: they get the 30 million back if they cant reah a deal, or at least thats my understanding.

Correct.

[Guest Iubitul]

ScarletKnight41 wrote: Mulder didn't work with Peterson as well as Zito and Hudson did.

Doesn't matter - even Mulder isn't dumb enough not to realize that his best years were with Peterson.

I like Zito - I would love to see the Mets sign him, but I have this nagging little whisper in the back of my head that says it might not be the best idea...