2007 Pitching Rotation Hot Stove Conversation

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: This also seems to be pattern with Omar Minaya, with his 1-for-2 deals: get a major leaguer you're going to punch in right away for better or for worse and get a prospect who has trended in the wrong direction, has fallen out of his team's favor, and can take his time in Norfolk (New Orleans) and benefit from a new organization with new coaches and turn himself around. Perez and Maine are our third and fourth starters right now, but both were the second guys in the deal when we got them. Minaya seems to know how to divide his eggs in multiple baskets.

Good points. Some thoughts:

Didn't Omar shake up the scouting staff since he's been the GM? It seems they are now looking at possible acquisitions from the standpoints of can his problem be fixed? and can we be the ones to fix it? All it took for Mota to be effective again was moving him to the other side of the rubber. Perez was helped by telling him to go back to his old style of throwing (use the fastball more). And the fact that Omar is asking for those types of players (with future up sides) in deals shows me that the Mets are no longer the kind of team that always has to throw lots of prospects into deals just to obtain a quick fix kind of player and nothing else. Omar has been doing his homework. (Yes, they gave up prospects for Delgado , but I don't regard him as a "quick fix"/ one year rental.)

Yes, Perez and Maine are our fourth starters now. And next year they may be joined in the rotation by Humber and/or Pelfrey and/or Bannister. That brings to mind the O's "Baby Bird" rotations of the 60's, the Mets rotations of the 80's and the Tigers' rotation this year. Each staff had an experienced lefty (Cuellar, Ojeda, Rogers). And Glavine can fill that role in 2007 for the Mets. This could be the start of something good.

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I can guarantee you that the Mets won't go into 2007 with a rotation of Glavine and four kids.

They're going to add at least one experienced starter (Schmidt, Zito, or the Japanese guy), and may retain Orlando Hernandez as well.

Maine will probably be in the rotation, which would leave Bannister, Perez, Pelfrey, Humber, and whoever else competing for just one spot.

[MFS62]

I know it probably won't happen.
But I can dream.
I have to.
I'm a Mets fan.

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I don't share that dream. I don't want the Mets to follow up this terrific season with a rotation of a 41-year-old and a bunch of unproven kids.

I'd like to do this postseason thing again in 2007.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Let's move away from the hornillo caliente for now.

Big game tonight.

[metsmarathon]

if the kids do well, its a nice dream.

now turn off those burners.

[Valadius]

You gotta leave a spot open for Pedro though.

[metsmarathon]

he can bump whoever struggles. you build the rotation without him, and when he comes back and can pitch effectively, he's a bonus. going forward, act like he's not there, until he is.

[Centerfield]

I agree with Yancy and marathon.

[RealityChuck]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I can guarantee you that the Mets won't go into 2007 with a rotation of Glavine and four kids. They're going to add at least one experienced starter (Schmidt, Zito, or the Japanese guy), and may retain Orlando Hernandez as well. Maine will probably be in the rotation, which would leave Bannister, Perez, Pelfrey, Humber, and whoever else competing for just one spot.

Most likely: Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Perez, Bannister. Pelfrey and Humber need one more year in the minors.

Bannister gets sent down once Pedro returns.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Chuck, you're not allowing a spot for a veteran aquisition. I'm sure there will be one.

[metsmarathon]

RealityChuck wrote: ="Yancy Street Gang"]I can guarantee you that the Mets won't go into 2007 with a rotation of Glavine and four kids. They're going to add at least one experienced starter (Schmidt, Zito, or the Japanese guy), and may retain Orlando Hernandez as well. Maine will probably be in the rotation, which would leave Bannister, Perez, Pelfrey, Humber, and whoever else competing for just one spot. Most likely: Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Perez, Bannister. Pelfrey and Humber need one more year in the minors. Bannister gets sent down once Pedro returns.

i'd retain hernandez as well, and try to bring in one of the best arms out there into the team. assuming duque doesnt show his age just yet, i would most pencil maine in as making the team next year, with perez and bannister duking it out for the final spot. perez has more upside, but needs to show next ST that he can harness it consistently to make the rotation.

seriously. turn the stove off.

[RealityChuck]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Chuck, you're not allowing a spot for a veteran aquisition. I'm sure there will be one.

If we get someone, great. If not, I'd be happy with the rotation I mentioned.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

This discussion is about as relevant as the OJ book today.

[Willets Point]

This discussion split from the Kris Benson/John Maine Trade Tracker thread.

And by Hot Stove, we mean continue this after the Mets season ends.

[MFS62]

That's funny. I don't remember starting this thread.

Thanks for breaking it off, WP. Didn't mean to hijack that other theread.

Later

[Willets Point]

Thanks for being a good sport. It was hard to figure where to split the thread since the first half of your post is relevant to the original thread.

[metsmarathon]

so. perez in the rotation next year?

[Valadius]

Absolutely.

[nymr83]

not based on one start. barring a signing he's almost certainly in, even with one i'd consider him the favorite in ST for the last spot.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

metsmarathon wrote: so. perez in the rotation next year?

He's a stronger candidate than he was a few hours ago.

[RealityChuck]

I always felt Perez was a strong candidate. The postseason only makes him stronger. Until Pelfrey is ready (and I think he probably needs another year in the minors), he's got the most heat on the staff, and once he breaks his bad habits from Pittsburgh, he can be great. The Mets desperately need a pitcher or two who can throw heat (if only in contrast to their other finesse pitchers), and Perez certainly will do.

BTW, let's put a rest to the story that Perez was a throw-in. Minyana kept trying to wrest him from the Pirates, but they wanted Nady and Omar wouldn't trade Nady him one-for-one. Once Sanchez was hurt, Omar went back and asked them to throw in Bert to make the deal.

I really like the team's young pitchers, but for 2008, when both Pelfrey and Humber should be ready.

[MFS62]

Acording to this Morning's Daily News, the Mets eligible for arbitration are:

Ramon Castro
Endy Chavez
Oliver Perez
Duanier Sanchez
Victor Zambrano
Dave Williams

No mention on who will be a free agent, nor did they mention players who have an option (player, team or mutual).

From that list above, who do you offer arby to?
Who do you let become free agents?

Later

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'd try to keep the first four, and I'd let the last two slip away.

[metsmarathon]

the first four are easy.

somewhere in teh back of my head is a whisper that zambrano has some inherent upside, but i think i'll be shouting that whisper down for a while.

maybe we can trade him to the yankees for arod... they're hot after zambrano, right?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Zambrano may indeed. But that upside is not worth an arbitration award.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yes to everyone but Zambrano, whom I think would be set to make a lot more than the rest. Williams is no great shakes, but he'd be decent insurance if he doesn't cost a whole lot.

If Zambrano were cheap, I'd keep him to, but I think he'll cost a couple mil.

As for Perez, I think he's a strong contender, along with Maine, but I'd like to give Humber & Pelfrey real shots in April.

[Guest Rotblatt]

I'm not sure I want to retain El Duque. He was decent for us, but I think I'd rather give a kid a shot.

I'm thinking:

New Acquisition - Glavine - Maine - Perez - Bannister/Heilman/Pelfrey/Humber

I think it's more likely, though, that we try to acquire two starting pitchers, and end up bumping one of Maine or Perez from the rotation. Which would be a shame, IMO.

[Elster88]

]BTW, let's put a rest to the story that Perez was a throw-in. Minyana kept trying to wrest him from the Pirates, but they wanted Nady and Omar wouldn't trade Nady him one-for-one. Once Sanchez was hurt, Omar went back and asked them to throw in Bert to make the deal

I never once heard the story described this way. Not even remotely. I can't take it just on your say-so. When and where did Omar say this?

[metsmarathon]

i'd keep duque (what's his contractual status anyways) just as an insurance policy, myself. Pelfry & Humber almost surely will not be ready for prime time, and it gives us some backup in case maine and/or perez and/or bannister regress.

and unfortunately, i don't see heilman making the leap into the rotation. well, maybe.

the only way i don't see bringing back el duque as a good move is if we bring in two good veterans instead of one.

and there's just no way i hold open a slot for pedro. if he comes back next year, we deal with it then. i'm not spending all of next year thinking "when petey comes back, we'll get this rotation straightened out!"