Jose Reyes Deathwatch

[Elster88]

You may disagree with as much respect as you want, but you're still wrong as of today.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes. The definition of "championship" may be a little fuzzy. (For example, does a wild card count?) But by any definition, the Mets haven't won a championship during Reyes' time with the team.

[Elster88]

.275/.340/.447//.787

29 BB (projected 67.114)

[MFS62]

Soriano mold breaking?
As a leadoff hitter with power as well as speed?
I thought Rickey Henderson broke that mold.

As a leadoff hitter with power, speed, relatively few walks and lots of strikeouts?
Well, maybe.

Later

[Elster88]

]Reyes extended his hitting streak to eight games with his double in the first inning and is now batting .500 (17-for-34) with 11 runs scored, seven doubles, a triple, three RBIs and three stolen bases during that stretch.

He has no walks in his last seven games. He had three in the game prior to those (2 intentional).

[smg58]

Elster88 wrote: The problem with Verducci's argument is we don't really know if Reyes scores so much because he is so fast or because we have some thumpers behind him in the order. I think it's more about his speed, and not Belgadight, but I don't know of a statistical way to prove it.

He scored 99 last year, without Delgado and with Beltran and even Wright not hitting like this, while getting on base less often. This year, he's on pace for 139. I think you could argue that the 99 he scored last year had more to do with speed than anything else, but the 40 he's on pace to add have multiple sources.

Also keep in mind that the important thing about OBP, especially from the guy getting the most plate appearances, is not so much what it adds to an individual's run total but to the team's as a whole. Runners get advanced, outs are avoided, rallies are prolonged, more AB's come with more guys on base.

[Elster88]

smg58 wrote: ="Elster88"]The problem with Verducci's argument is we don't really know if Reyes scores so much because he is so fast or because we have some thumpers behind him in the order. I think it's more about his speed, and not Belgadight, but I don't know of a statistical way to prove it. He scored 99 last year, without Delgado and with Beltran and even Wright not hitting like this, while getting on base less often. This year, he's on pace for 139. I think you could argue that the 99 he scored last year had more to do with speed than anything else, but the 40 he's on pace to add have multiple sources. Also keep in mind that the important thing about OBP, especially from the guy getting the most plate appearances, is not so much what it adds to an individual's run total but to the team's as a whole. Runners get advanced, outs are avoided, rallies are prolonged, more AB's come with more guys on base.

I agree with all of this. He did have Floyd last year too, but he also had Cairo/Matsui batting second instead of LoDuca.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Elster88 wrote: He has no walks in his last seven games. He had three in the game prior to those (2 intentional).

True. But he's only struck out only twice in those eight games. Reyes is perilously close to having as many walks as strikeouts (29 to 37) which is something he's only accomplished once, at the age of 16 in rookie ball--and that was only over 101 PA.

Of course, I've seen him swing at some horrendous pitches during his latest streak, but he mostly seems to be making good contact with them, so it's tough to argue.

At any rate, he's seems to be displaying better plate discipline (statistically) than he ever has at any point in his career.

This is a good thing.

Frankly, if Jose turns out to be the kind of guy who only draws walks when he's slumping, and the rest of the time, he hits > .350 (ala Ichiro), I'm cool with that.

[Elster88]

Rotblatt wrote: ="Elster88"]He has no walks in his last seven games. He had three in the game prior to those (2 intentional). True. But he's only struck out only twice in those eight games. Reyes is perilously close to having as many walks as strikeouts (29 to 37) which is something he's only accomplished once, at the age of 16 in rookie ball--and that was only over 101 PA. Of course, I've seen him swing at some horrendous pitches during his latest streak, but he mostly seems to be making good contact with them, so it's tough to argue. At any rate, he's seems to be displaying better plate discipline (statistically) than he ever has at any point in his career. This is a good thing. Frankly, if Jose turns out to be the kind of guy who only draws walks when he's slumping, and the rest of the time, he hits > .350 (ala Ichiro), I'm cool with that.

I agree with all that.

But right now I'm just gathering data. I'm not drawing any conclusions or making any judgements on said non-existent conclusions.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've seen him swing at some bad pitches during the streak, but far fewer.

But I think pitchers are, in general, adjusting to his newfound restraint and coming after him more.

And, maybe he's making them pay a little.

[Elster88]

That combined with an increasing fear of walking him in general, as his baserunning has gotten more TV play and as Belgadight mash the crap out of the ball.

[TransMonk]

Elster88 wrote: Belgadight

Classic! Soda all over my keyboard.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Dead men don't cycle.

[metirish]

Mets that hit for the cycle..

] Jim Hickman -- Aug. 7, 1963 Tommie Agee -- July 6, 1970 Mike Phillips -- June 25, 1976 Keith Hernandez -- July 4, 1985 Kevin McReynolds -- Aug. 1, 1989 Alex Ochoa -- July 3, 1996 John Olerud -- Sept. 11, 1997 Eric Valent -- July 29, 2004 José Reyes -- Last night Source: Baseball-almanac.com

[Guest cleonjones11]

Elster88 wrote: You may disagree with as much respect as you want, but you're still wrong as of today.

You know nothing about baseball.Too caught up in Bill James and new style stats. Have you ever played the game beyond little league?

You are totally wrong about Reyes

Hey! Bring back Elster ya nitwit

[Elster88]

cleonjones11 wrote: ="Elster88"]You may disagree with as much respect as you want, but you're still wrong as of today. You know nothing about baseball.Too caught up in Bill James and new style stats. Have you ever played the game beyond little league? You are totally wrong about Reyes Hey! Bring back Elster ya nitwit

I know enough about baseball to realize Reyes hasn't been on a team that won a championship yet.

I don't read Bill James, but I've never heard of a writer explain how to tell when a player has a World Series ring. Most people can figure that out on their own. Just not you I guess.

Or maybe you just can't read? Try having someone explain my post to you if you're having trouble.

[Guest Edgy DC]

cleonjones11 wrote: You know nothing about baseball.

I'll disagree.

[nymr83]

cleonjones11 wrote: ="Elster88"]You may disagree with as much respect as you want, but you're still wrong as of today. You know nothing about baseball.Too caught up in Bill James and new style stats. Have you ever played the game beyond little league? You are totally wrong about Reyes Hey! Bring back Elster ya nitwit

way to be dead wrong. the fact of the matter is Reyes (and the Mets) haven't won anything yet and thus Reyes is, by definition, not a shortstop on a championship team. This has nothing to do with his abilities.

As for "new style stats" you may want to try reading about them, its good for you. Or you could continue claiming that the earth is flat and ignore scientific claims to the contrary. your call.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Somebody post a Billy Wagner Deathwatch thread.

[Elster88]

[u:8f68d25853]Mets with a lower OBP than Jose Reyes (pitchers excluded):[/u:8f68d25853]
Carlos Delgado
Paul Lo Duca
Cliff Floyd
Xavier Nady
Endy Chavez
Jose Valentin
Ramon Castro
Chris Woodward
Eli Marrero
Lastings Milledge

[u:8f68d25853]Mets with a higher OBP than Jose Reyes (pitchers excluded)[/u:8f68d25853]:
David Wright
Carlos Beltran
Julio Franco

[Guest Edgy DC]

In other words, he unquestionably should be their leadoff hitter.

Speaking of batting order, I notice nobody's booing Beltran to send a message to Willie Randolph to bat him second any longer.

[Elster88]

Whenever a new page is started people may miss the new posts at the end of the last page. Check out the list at the end of page 7. It's interesting.

[Elster88]

="Edgy DC"]In other words, he unquestionably should be their leadoff hitter. Speaking of batting order, I notice nobody's booing Beltran to send a message to Willie Randolph to bat him second any longer.

I think it'd be an interesting thing to try. Move the lower OBPs (*cough* LoDuca *cough*) to the end of the lineup. Also move the slowest (second slowest behind Delgado?) guy in the regular starting lineup (*cough* LoDuca *cough*) to the end of the lineup.

That would put two of our top three OBPs hitting 1-2. Also our best two runners.

I think lineup mathematics say keeping higher SLGs in the middle overrides keeping higher OBPs at the top though.

[Guest Edgy DC]

]I think it'd be an interesting thing to try.

I'm not deriding the move, I'm deriding the notion that it was an advocacy for that move that prompted Beltran's early booing.

I'm all kinds of OK with Valentin and Woodward batting second regularly, and not just when Castro is catching.

[Elster88]

For the record, LoDuca has the second lowest OBP of any position player currently on the team or DL, one point above Milledge.

[nymr83]

I don't think anyone is claiming, now that Reyes has shown a great improvement in his walk rate, that the Mets have a better option to leadoff.

The biggest complaint anyone might have about this lineup is LoDuca not batting 7th or 8th, but again there is no obvious solution to that unless you want to move guys who are doing really well around (which you may or may not like doing) or if you want to experiment with Nady or the 2nd baseman for the month hitting there.

[metsmarathon]

loduca's batting second is based more on his ability to make contact, moreso than on his ability to get on base. i think that typically you want your #2 hitter to be your best contact hitter, outside, perhaps, those who would be better served batting first, third, or fourth.

and with only 15 strikeouts in 230 at bats, i would think that loduca is performing rather admirably in the task of providing batted balls which may serve to advance the running jose reyes.

beltran has 50 strikeouts in as many at bats.

[Vic Sage]

metsmarathon wrote: i think that typically you want your #2 hitter to be your best contact hitter, outside, perhaps, those who would be better served batting first, third, or fourth..

i think, ideally, you want your #2 hitter to be a hitter you want to give more ABs too than you'd choose to give to the least productive hitter on your team.

reyes doesn't need a contact hitter to score. he just needs fewer outs made behind him.

i think, by and large, lineup order has little overall consequence, beyond simply giving your best hitters more ABs than your worst hitters. Which is why LoDuca hitting in the top 3, and Wright hitting 5th, is so irritating to me.

[nymr83]

metsmarathon wrote: i think that typically you want your #2 hitter to be your best contact hitter, outside, perhaps, those who would be better served batting first, third, or fourth..

nope. I want my #2 hitter to get on base, and thus be my 2nd best OBP guy that isn't already batting 3rd or 4th (where i've already put my best OPS 3rd, the best remaining SLG% 4th, and the best remaining OBP leading off)

="Vic Sage"]i think, ideally, you want your #2 hitter to be a hitter you want to give more ABs too than you'd choose to give to the least productive hitter on your team.

ding ding ding! we have a winner. this is why Cairo batting 2nd was the epitome of stupid.

]reyes doesn't need a contact hitter to score. he just needs fewer outs made behind him.

fewer outs would be a better method of scoring him than bunting him over or otherwise making outs.

]i think, by and large, lineup order has little overall consequence, beyond simply giving your best hitters more ABs than your worst hitters. Which is why LoDuca hitting in the top 3, and Wright hitting 5th, is so irritating to me.

at the beginning of the year i could have easily said Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Delgado, Floyd, RF, LoDuca, 2B made the most sense. the way Valentin is hitting you can reverse him and LoDuca, but considreing that the Mets lead the NL in runs scored i won't get worked up over it.

Ideally, the Mets trade for Vidro and bat him 2nd (if they batted loduca 2nd over him i'd beat willie's head in)

[Elster88]

.302/.361/.495//.855

29 BB (projected 62.64)

67 Runs (1st NL, 1st MLB)
10 3B (1st NL, 1st MLB)
34 SB (1st NL, 1st MLB)
98 H (Tie - 2nd NL, Tie - 4th MLB [with David Wright])
161 Total Bases (5th NL, 7th MLB [David Wright leads the majors in TB])
.302 AVG (Tie - 18th NL, Tie - 40th MLB)
.361 OBP (Tie - 35th NL, Tie - 69th MLB)