Jose Reyes Deathwatch

[Elster88]

Jose Reyes BB 2005: 27
Jose Reyes BB 2006: 14
Jose Reyes BB 2006 projected: 68.7272727272727273

Jose Reyes OBP 2005: .300
Jose Reyes OBP 2006: .330

Jose Reyes OPS 2005: .686
Jose Reyes OPS 2006: .756

[smg58]

I'd very happily take .330 and .756 from him over a full season.

[duan]

if Reyes could just get the OBP up to .350 he'd start to become REALLY valuable. I think we have to look on his development so far this year as extremely encouraging. The OBP being at .330 with a .267 average is really encouraging - as is the fact that he's showing a little more power too.

[Elster88]

smg58 wrote: I'd very happily take .330 and .756 from him over a full season.

Really? Not batting leadoff though, right? Or do you just mean you'll take it for this year and hope for further improvement? I'm looking at it that way.

[Guest sharpie]

On April 25, when this thread started, Jose had a .233BA, .275OBP, .360SLG, .635OPS

Today: .267BA, .331OBP, .425SLG, .756OPS

Clearly, Jose is reading this board and responded accordingly (which also makes me think that his English is better than he lets on).

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think his English is fine. His accent is pretty think but the comprehension and construction is there.

[metirish]

They should just make reyes bat righty, he's clearly a better hitter from that side.

[Frayed Knot]

On a Reyes side-note:
Willie - on his weekly radio interview yesterday - said that he was pretty sure Reyes was safe at 2nd the other night but didn't go out and argue because he was too mad at Jose getting caught on the fake-to-3rd play ... especially since the coach had just warned him about it the pitch before.
'Tryin to teach a lesson there' - or something along those lines.

I kinda like that.
It wouldn't have changed the call, of course, and Willie's kind of a wimpy arguer anyway, but it says to him that; 'I'll have your back but you've got to do enough to earn that right'.

[MFS62]

="Edgy DC"]I think his English is fine. His accent is pretty think but the comprehension and construction is there.

I remember reading that as soon as Jose signed his first pro contract, he began taking English classes so he would be ready to speak to fans and reporters "when he made the major leagues". From a teenager, that showed a lot of confidence.

Later

[Guest Edgy DC]

it looks that way this year, but last year he had a .687 OPS against righties and a .686 against lefties.

It's a really touch issue with some guys and almost nobody abandons switch-hitting at the major league level (and even fewer with any success), as it trades one problem --- hitting from your less than natural side of the plate --- for another --- getting jammed by a major-league pitcher when nobody's done that to you since you wree 17 and started switch-hitting.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I remember Wally Backman considered batting lefty only. I think he had something like one or two at bats batting left-handed against a left-handed pitcher before he abandoned the idea. I'm guessing that it was in 1988. I remember it as being late in Wally's tenure with the Mets.

[Guest sharpie]

JT Snow gave up switch hitting deep into his puzzlingly long major league career.

[metirish]

I'm not sure how serious I am about Reyes just hitting righty but he sure looks horrible most of the time hitting left, lunges at the ball it seems to me.

[Frayed Knot]

Reyes's speed gives a big advantage to continuing his lefty batting.
Backman's bad side was his RH hitting; JT Snow was never a speed guy.

Reyes came to switch-hitting relatively late (after he was a pro) so you could argue that he's still evolving that way. He more of a bail-out/slappy hitter from the left side but maybe that's not such a bad thing to be with his speed.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Frayed Knot wrote: Reyes's speed gives a big advantage to continuing his lefty batting. Backman's bad side was his RH hitting; JT Snow was never a speed guy. Reyes came to switch-hitting relatively late (after he was a pro) so you could argue that he's still evolving that way. He more of a bail-out/slappy hitter from the left side but maybe that's not such a bad thing to be with his speed.

But it is a bad thing when he keeps getting under the ball. I don't mind him slapping from the left side, but at least slap it toward the ground.

[Frayed Knot]

Well yeah, if he's not hitting well then he's not hitting well.
My only point is that the difference in his two swings isn't necc a problem because it can fit into his other strengths.

[Elster88]

.311 OBP coming into today will go up with the 3-5 performance. Still not good.

[The Big O]

Elster88 wrote: .311 OBP coming into today will go up with the 3-5 performance. Still not good.

That's a .311 OBP on top of a .245 batting average, for an ISOobp of .066.

Previous Jose Reyes ISOobp numbers:
2003 .027
2004 .016
2005 .027

Or, to put it another way, Jose has more walks (19) in 205 ABs this year than his first ~500 MLB ABs combined (18).

If he were hitting .277 (career avg.), his OBP would be around .340. If he were hitting .300, his OBP would be about .360. If .333, it would be around .390.

He's tied for 67th in MLB for walks right now. Top 10 among leadoff men and shortstops.

He walked 12 times last month, but only 7 this month so far. 12 + (5 * 7) would give him 47 walks on the year, which would eclipse his 2005 total by 20 walks.

---

FWIW, Mookie Wilson hovered around a 0.50-.060 isolated on-base in the late 80s:

1982 .035
1983 .024
1984 .032
1985 .055
1986 .051
1987 .060
1988 .049

Mook's career high in walks was 35. His career line was .274/.314./.349 and .276/.318/.394 with the Mets.

[Elster88]

]If he were hitting .277 (career avg.), his OBP would be around .340. If he were hitting .300, his OBP would be about .360. If .333, it would be around .390.

Can I quote this in the Who Gives a Crap thread?

Just busting balls....but seriously, until his batting average reaches those numbers, what is the point of estimating the associated OBP? I'm sure everyone here has done the addition in their head that you do here. But it is just hopes and dreams until we see it happen.

Even though we all want to assume his BA will revert to career norms but his OBP will not (kind of sucks to think of it that way, doesn't it?), it's not realistic until we see it.

[The Big O]

Elster88 wrote: Just busting balls....but seriously, until his batting average reaches those numbers, what is the point of estimating the associated OBP?

I don't understand this statement at all. But it seems like you were complaining about Jose's OB-ness, when it's his BA-ness that's not quite up to snuff. He's OB-ing better than he ever has in the majors.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Sure, but I think, at his age, there's something to get enthused, if not overly excited about.

He lacks in one area of offense, he improves it, but another drops off. Now, that may be a net zero (development-wise, production-wise the net is a lot more subtly measured), but isn't getting different parts of his game going at different times a better thing on which to pin the hopes that he might get them all going at most times than if he continued brandishing the same modest skill in one area and the same lack of skill in another?

Development is like that, fits and starts.

That three-run homer yesterday was wunnerful. A far better piece of hitting, it seemed to me, than the golf-jobbie the day before.

[Elster88]

I agree with all of that, my optimism is just riddled with fears and paranoia.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Edgy's point, which is well taken, is that Reyes is still developing, and unusually haltingly. But the part to be optimistic about is that his overall game is improving, in all parts, even as each part takes two steps forward and one part backward. What would be truly depressing would be if he'd put up another sub-.300 OBP.

[soupcan]

Have I mentioned he runs like a freakin' greyhound?

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Elster88 wrote: I agree with all of that, my optimism is just riddled with fears and paranoia.

A man after my own heart

[Frayed Knot]

soupcan wrote: Have I mentioned he runs like a freakin' greyhound?

Meaning that he runs even faster when we put a fake rabbit on the infield

[soupcan]

="Frayed Knot"]Meaning that he runs even faster when we put a fake rabbit on the infield

From the IGT of the Wednesday night game:

Reyes is like a freakin' greyhound. Ever seen a greyhound in full stride? They move so fast and their movements are so fluid. Its like they are floating just above the ground when they run.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Reyes in:

April: 100 AB, .250 AVG/.330 OPS/.380 SLG/.710 OPS, 10.7% BB, 13.4% K
May: 132 AB, .250 AVG/.298 OPS/.424 SLG/.722 OPS, 6% BB, 11% K

Historically: .273 AVG/.305 OBP/.405 SLG/.701 OPS, 4.4% BB, 11.8% K

So Reyes drew fewer walks in May but STILL outperformed his cumulative average. He also cut down on his K rate. All in all, he continued to progress in the plate discipline department.

However, the fact that he's still not hitting for average is disturbing. Is he getting unlucky or is it something more ominous?

2004 (.255 AVG)
.289 BABIP, 19.4 LD%, 42.8 GB%, ? IF/F%, 3.1 HR/F%

2005 (.273 AVG):
.300 BABIP, 19.6 LD%, 47.2 GB%, 8.1 IF/F%, 3.8 HR/F%

2006 (.250 AVG):
.270 BABIP, 22.6 LD%, 45.6 GB%, 9.7 IF/F%, 8.4 HR/F%

His batting average on balls in play is, for him, quite low. Let's look at the batted ball type to see why that might be.

He's hitting more line drives, which usually equates to more hits (i.e., a better BABIP).

He's hit fewer groundballs, which hurt Jose in 2004, but but he's more than made up for that in the line drive department (68.2 LD+GB% v. 66.8% in 2005). In 2004, his biggest problem appeared to be hitting too many fly balls (37.8%), which he cut back on in 2005 (33.2%) and improved on even more this year (31.8%).

On those fly balls he does hit, far more are leaving the park (8.4%--a huge jump). This is a good thing, especially since it doesn't seem to have convinced Jose to try and hit more fly balls.

The only real negative is that he's producing more weak pop-ups than he has in the past, but that's somewhat mitigated by the fact that he's hitting fewer fly balls overall.

I'll go out on a limb and say that Jose's not doing anything wrong here--he's just getting unlucky. He's hitting more line drives, fewer fly balls, and hitting more home runs. I see no reason why he his BABIP shouldn't be back up in the .300 range over the rest of the year--possibly even above that, given how much improvement he's shown in terms batted ball types he's produced.

Had Jose's BABIP been .300 over the first 2 months, he'd have the following line:

.276 AVG/.336 OBP/.431 SLG/.767 OPS.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Here's a prediction. In April, he upped his walk average. In May, he upped his slugging average. In June, he'll up his batting average.

I remember reading that Ricky Henderson was supposed to re-join the Mets in June.

[Willets Point]

Edgy DC wrote: I remember reading that Ricky Henderson was supposed to re-join the Mets in June.

You're kidding! I guess he's still younger than Franco by a few months but I think he's past his prime.