Open Thread on Strength of Schedule

[Guest Rotblatt]

I was curious about how April looked for us in terms of difficulty, so I'm checking it out and reporting here. I figure we'll want to update this thread as we go forward. For the moment, I'm using PECOTA predictions as the indicator of team quality, but going forward, we'll probably want to use actual 2006 record.

NYN: 5th out of 30, .543 projected record (88 W)

April

WAS (6 games): 28th out of 30, .432 record projected (70 W)
ATL (6 games): 9th, .525 (85)
SD (4 games): 19th, .481 (78)
FLA (3 games): 27th, .438 (71)
MIL (3 games): 12th, .519 (84)
SF (3 games): 15th, .494 (80)
25 games total. 3 off days. Combined expected winning percentage of opponents: .481. Weighted average: .481

Only one team in the projected top ten. 64% of our games this month are against teams projected to lose over half their games. 17% against teams projected to tank this season. Arguably our lightest month until September (FLA, PIT, WAS).

Fellow Mets fans, we need to make hay this month. May is going to be a tough one for us (STL, NYY, PHI & ATL feature heavily), so we need to build ourselves a cushion. I'm thinking 14 wins (.560 W%) at a minimum.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Okay, I'm in!

What can I do to help?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

As I mention here it's essential for the Mets to kick ass in April, notwithstanding the issues you add. if they're close to .500 on May 1, this is going to be another long season.

[Guest Edgy DC]

What's an open thread? Is it like a wikithread?

[Guest Rotblatt]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Okay, I'm in! What can I do to help?

Not be a smartass.







But seriously, I would suggest the following:
1. Honor any and all superstitions developed over your career as a Mets fan. For example, every time I thought "Ooh, I bet he hits a home run here!" during the game yesterday, I knocked on wood. (Even when watching the replay last night. It's called dedication.)
2. Develop new superstitions. Example: I bought my girlfriend a shiny new Mets hat on Sunday and "suggested" she wear it yesterday. She did. The Mets won. Therefore, during the first game of every series, I will try to get my girlfriend to wear her hat. Maybe it only works on Opening Day or against the Nats, but I won't know until I try. And damnit, if it will help the Mets, I'm willing to risk my relationship.
3. Heckle. Soriano catches Nady's hit if the fans aren't booing the living shit out of him.
4. Go to games. You can't heckle if you're not there. Well, you can, but it won't help. Unless it's a superstition, in which case, stay at home and heckle your little heart out.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Edgy DC wrote: What's an open thread? Is it like a wikithread?

It means pretty please with sugar on top don't archive me because I plan on posting here around the start of every month.

Clever, huh?

[Willets Point]

Duly noted. Of course if you keep the thread active it won't have a chance of being archived.

[soupcan]

="Rotblatt"]But seriously, I would suggest the following: Example: I bought my girlfriend a shiny new Mets hat on Sunday and "suggested" she wear it yesterday. She did. The Mets won. Therefore, during the first game of every series, I will try to get my girlfriend to wear her hat. Maybe it only works on Opening Day or against the Nats, but I won't know until I try. And damnit, if it will help the Mets, I'm willing to risk my relationship.

I interpret this to mean that you must BUY your girlfriend a shiny new hat before every Mets game.

I realize that's an expensive pursuit but hey, its called dedication.

On my end I will continue to boo Carlos Beltran as that apparantly leads to Mets victories in 2006.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

That means that every day this year I'll have to make angry phone calls to Comcast.

I can do that.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="soupcan"]I interpret this to mean that you must BUY your girlfriend a shiny new hat before every Mets game. I realize that's an expensive pursuit but hey, its called dedication.

Shit, you might be right.

Or maybe I just need to buy her at hat every time I'm at Shea.

Well, for now, I'll try just getting her to wear it. If that doesn't work, I'll just have to up the limit on the ole credit card and start buying.

[Frayed Knot]

That BP rankings list is one of the few I've seen so far where the top of the list is NOT dominated by AL teams. Most prognosticators think the balance of power tilts seriously toward the junior circuit this year, building on their dominance of last year's inter-league and the last few post-seasons.
A lot of that stuff is simply random chance and somewhat cyclical, although 'The Hardball Times' looks at recent trades & free agent signings as a way to explain why.

[metirish]

Good stuff Rotty, lets hope the Randolf Mets are not slow starters like Valentine's used to be.....we need to be the beasts of the east.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Frayed Knot wrote: That BP rankings list is one of the few I've seen so far where the top of the list is NOT dominated by AL teams. Most prognosticators think the balance of power tilts seriously toward the junior circuit this year, building on their dominance of last year's inter-league and the last few post-seasons. A lot of that stuff is simply random chance and somewhat cyclical, although 'The Hardball Times' looks at recent trades & free agent signings as a way to explain why.

Yeah, that's all good stuff, although I'm a little leary of the math involved. I mean, I feel like the NL has a nice batch of rookies who could replace those "lost" win shares. Willingham, Hermida, Zimmerman, Fielder, Anthony Reyes, Barfield, H. Ramirez . . . What rookies are the AL trotting out? Liriano, Baker & Kubel (all Twins) & Marte? Is there anyone else significant starting off the season for AL teams?

Compare expected performance from NL & AL sophmores, and I think we'll open up a can of whoop-ass there too.

Anyway, strength of team all relative on the power charts, since they only plot out expected wins. As a result, even if the Yankees & Mets had equal teams, the Mets would likely win more games (thus garnering a higher spot on the rankings) simply because the teams it faces are so (allegedly) poor.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Well, we're 5 games into our weak month, and so far, we've done pretty well, winning 4. We remain 5th on BP's hitlist. Washington, however, crept up from 28th to 23rd. The Brew Crew is sitting directly behind us now, at 6th--they're playing awfully well right now, and that should be a pretty good series.

For the moment, however, our boys need to focus on taking at least 2 of 3 from Washington. After them, we face a swath of tougher opponents, although the Padres are currently playing like crap.

]The Mets get off on the Wright (as in David, 9-for-19, .895 SLG) foot. Pedro Martinez's toe appears to be better than his results, though his aim at Jose Guillen (two HBPs) is true. Jorge Julio's Mel Rojas impersonation is the only blemish on an otherwise uplifting week.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Where were the Phils last week? I see them at seven now.

[Guest holychicken]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Okay, I'm in! What can I do to help?

Go to every game and boo Beltran mercilessly.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Edgy DC wrote: Where were the Phils last week?

You know, I'm not sure. I only recorded the ranking of the teams we were facing in April. The Phils are at 29th this week due to a horrendus start, but the rankings are a little screwy because they give too much weight to W-L record for the small sample size.

They're projected to win 86 games (which was what the ranking for the first week was primarily based on), so they were probably between 7th & 9th last week.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Through April 23:
12-6 (5.22 RS/G--5th in NL, 3.61 RA/G--first in majors)

At 12-6, we're right on target with our Pythagorean projection, but we've lost four of our last 7, and averaged only 3.7 runs per game in that span, after scoring 6.2 in our first 11.

The good news is that our pitching has remained strong--over the first 11, we allowed 3.7. Over the past 7, we've allowed 3.4.

While we're only 2 wins away from the April bar I set at the beginning of the season and we have 6 games left to play, San Diego is the kind of team we should be thrashing with regularity. Tying a 4-game series with them isn't the end of the world, but I expected us to take 3 at a minimum.

San Francisco has been better than expected (10-8), but they've gotten lucky, scoring only 86 runs and allowing 100 (PYTH: 8-10). We should really take two out of three there.

Atlanta's pitching has struggled (92 RA), but they've managed to outscore us on the season (97-94) despite injuries to three of their top players. I'm not predicting anything; I just hope this series won't piss me off as much as the last one did.

[Centerfield]

="Rotblatt"]San Francisco has been better than expected (10-8), but they've gotten lucky, scoring only 86 runs and allowing 100 (PYTH: 8-10). We should really take two out of three there.

Let's hope so. Tonight's starter kinda reminds me of Calvin Shiraldi.



Does anyone else see it? Or is it just wishful thinking on my part?

[Elster88]

So far:

9-2 vs. Milwaukee, Washington and Florida

5-5 vs. Atlanta and west coast trip


That's the way to do it. Beat the hell out of the weaklings and go .500 vs. the good teams and on long road trips.

[Frayed Knot]

2 of 3 in Georgia this weekend would make it a 6-4 combo Westcoast/Atlanta roadtrip.
I'll take that any week of the year.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I'd even take 5 and 5. At worst it'll be a 4-6 trip, which isn't as bad as it really could have been.

[nymr83]

2 games each with Washington and Shitsburgh this week at Shea, i want all 4 but i'll take 3. don't split with these weak teams, you've gotta load up on wins when the schedule is weak!

[Guest Rotblatt]

Well, April is over, and we've easily passed the 14-win threshold I set for us at the start of the season, despite missing a game against Florida. As we're all aware, however, April was, on paper, our easiest month of the season, and we won't see another one like it until September.

But is May really that bad?

May Opponents / # of Games Against / April 23 Hit List Ranking / Hit List Factor

NYM: 4th / .647

MFY: 3 / 1 /.662
STL: 3 / 6 / .565
MIL: 3 / 12 /.536
ATL: 3 / 15 / .507
ARI: 3 / 17 / .495
WAS: 2 / 19 / .472
=blue]FLA: 3 / 23 / .423
PHI: 6 / 28 / .387
PIT: 2 / 29 / .328

28 games total, 16 Home, 12 Away, 3 Off Days.

We face 3 teams that are playing well in the MFY, the evil Redbirds, and the Brewers, but they're balanced out by the unadulteratedly crappy play of Florida, Phillie & especially Pittsburgh. 57% of our games this month are against teams currently predicted to lose half their games. The teams in the middle look soft to me, especially Washington, although as always, the Braves are a threat to harsh our collective mellow.

Frankly, this should be another easy month despite facing the Cardinals and the Yankees, but it all hinges on whether or not the Phillies, whom we play 6 times in May, are able to get back on track. Even if they do, we should be able win 16 this month (.571 W%). That will mean playing .500 ball against the top 6 teams on this list, and .700 ball against the rest, which should be very doable. If we fail to crack 14 (.500 W%), we'll be underperforming.

[Elster88]

The placement of the Yankee games hurts a little. Coming off of a road trip, that ends in St. Louis of all places, to face the Yanks with no off day in between. Facing two of the toughest teams like that back to back will be tough.

I've also thought all along that Philadelphia is a better team than they are showing themselves to be. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

[Elster88]

I think this has been touched on but not adequately explained: Why the HELL is there a four day All-Star Break?

[HahnSolo]

]2 games each with Washington and Shitsburgh this week at Shea, i want all 4 but i'll take 3.

I tend to agree, but Zambrano and Maine (or whoever Bannister's sub is) are going within those four games. Fingers crossed.

[Centerfield]

Those two also take the ball next weekend against the Braves. (fingers remain crossed)

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

The thing most likely to undermine this season is the dropoff in the rotation after Trachsel.

It would be really nice if Maine gives a couple of solid performances, and Bannister comes back soon and learns to avoid all those jams. This will be a better season if Zambrano can be booted from the rotation.

(I'm also starting to think that Heilman might be more crucial to the rotation than he is to the bullpen.)

[nymr83]

Certainly if Zambrano continues is suckitude and Bannister doesn't return and pitch effectively the need for Heilman in the rotation grows. I don't think Gonzalez, Maine, or Lima are anything but injury replacements for one or two starts (and i'd rather use guys like that once or twice than juggle heilman between the rotation and the pen.) If a long-term problem such as the necessity of removing Zambrano for ineffectiveness were to arise i would not be comfortable with those 3 guys going forward. At that point you're either going to put Heilman in the rotation (which means you'd need confidence in another reliever, be it Bradford, Bell, Julio, Owens, or someone else entirely), make a trade, or say that Pelfrey or Soler are ready.

If the Mets are ever at the point where the rotation is Martinez, Glavine, Traschel, and 2 ineffective or injured players they are not in good shape.
Heilman only provides a partial solution because his loss to the bullpen could hurt almost as much as it helps. I think the Mets did themselves a huge disservice in making the Benson deal and they are going to need rotation help within the next month or so unless a) Zambrano miraculouosly stops sucking Maine miraculously pitches well, or perhaps most likely (of the 3) c) Pelfrey is pronounced ready to go.