Open Thread on Strength of Schedule

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think the primary DH has to be --- just has to be --- Julio Franco. He's getting good money for a small share of plate appearances.

[Frayed Knot]

I was thinking of that last night too.
It could buy Milledge an extra two weeks of major league play.
Or, if Nady isn't back yet, maybe Diaz wakes up and is called up for a spell.

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's all true. I think the plan was for Franco. That may be eligible for re-writing now, though.

[Elster88]

Only 6 more games this year will start after 9. I'm pleased.

[Elster88]

Heard an interesting theory on Monday before the game. The Mets have the west coast trip, 3 games in Philly, a 7-game homestand including 4 with the red hot Reds, and then Interleague away games in Toronto, Boston, and the Bronx. 26 games total.

The theory I heard was that if the Mets go 13-13 (or better) then they will be in great position to win the division in a walk.

13-13 would put them at 46-35 at the exact halfway mark of the year.

The theory did not say that they couldn't win the division if they went under .500 in that stretch, and it wasn't that it would be extremely difficult if they went under .500. The theory was just: Go 13-13, and the playoffs will come easily.

[Frayed Knot]

The only problem with theories like that is that it's based on going .500 during the supposed toughest part of the schedule means that it's assumed you can't possibly do worse during the remaining stretch.

Oh yeah you can.

[Elster88]

Thanks.

I still like the sound of it.

[Guest Rotblatt]

With tonight's sweep over the D'Backs, we're one win over projections, and, if I might say, playing some pretty decent ball.

We need to win 7 out of our next 17 to match my projection for June. Should be eminently doable--the next three series are ones we should really win.

[Elster88]

Elster88 wrote: Only 6 more games this year will start after 9. I'm pleased.

Down to 3.

[nymr83]

Elster88 wrote: Elster88 wrote: Only 6 more games this year will start after 9. I'm pleased. Down to 3.

it figures that those would be the first 3 days of my fall semester.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Hit List for June 11

Mets take 1st after shredding the D'Backs.

Mets: 1st, .611 W%, 9-3 record so far in June

Phillies (15th, .500), 1 games A
Orioles (25th, .444, 3 games H)
=red]Reds (10th, .547), 4 games H
=red]Blue Jays (6th, .572), 3 games A
Red Sox (7th, .570), 3 games A
Yankees (2nd, .613), 1 game A

Orioles have been playing a tiny bit better, but are still at the back of the pack.

Reds move up to 10th after an 8-game winning streak on the backs of some suprisingly decent pitching.

Blue Jays move up as well, despite some rotation problems.

Sox have been struggling, and the Yankees are somehow managing to get it done despite a plethora of injuries.

The toughest stretch of the month begins after our next series against the Orioles. We've done a nice job building a protective layer of fat in the early going, but this is our chance to really make a statement to the rest of baseball.

We need to win only 5 of our next 15 to match my original estimate.

[Elster88]

Has there been a correlation between this stuff and our record so far?

[Elster88]

A .500 record from here out, including today, would mean exactly 90 wins for the season.

[Elster88]

Elster88 wrote: The theory I heard was that if the Mets go 13-13 (or better) then they will win the division in a walk. 13-13 would put them at 46-35 at the exact halfway mark of the year.

9-1 is a good start.

[Elster88]

My schedule lists the three Toronto games as all starting at 7 minutes past the hour. That's different.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

It's because Canada has an earlier harvest.

[Elster88]

Or maybe just Toronto does. I don't remember that at Montreal.

[MFS62]

Elster88 wrote: My schedule lists the three Toronto games as all starting at 7 minutes past the hour. That's different.

Because they have to sing two National Anthems?

Or maybe because they have contracturally scheduled commercials before each first pitch.

Later

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

They use the metric system up there.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Hit List for June 18

Mets with a terrible homestand--pending the results of today's game, we're at 2-4. Still, our sweeps of the D'Backs and Phillies gave us some breathing room.

Mets: 2nd, .608 W%, 12-7 record so far in June

Reds (12th, .524), 1 game left
Blue Jays (6th, .565), 3 games A
Red Sox (7th, .532), 3 games A
Yankees (3rd, .604), 1 game A

We need to win only 2 of our next 8 to match my original estimate. At this point, though, winning only two would be a huge dissapointment. We should win 4 at a minimum.

[Guest Rotblatt]

We're at 14 wins for June. I'd like to see us take one more from Toronto and 2 from Boston.

I'm dying to see how our boys do at Fenway. Wright should have a field day hitting doubles off the Monster and Delgado, Cliff & Beltran hooking balls down Pesky's Pole.

July SHOULD be an easy month, but the last thing we want to do is get complacent. I'm gonna say 16 games should be our target.

25 games
Pittsburgh
Florida
Cubs
=orange]Reds
Astros
Cubs
Braves

[Elster88]

From August 29th to October 1 the Mets have exactly 1 day off.

Here's hoping there will be a chance to rest players in late September.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

There's bound to be. I have no fear of any baseball gods, so I don't mind saying that the only suspense in September will be home field advantage in the playoffs and finding out who the first-round opponent will be.

[Elster88]

It's easy to snub the gods when you have a rocky orange epidermis.

Actually, though, I consider myself less superstitious than most.

[MFS62]

Elster88 wrote: From August 29th to October 1 the Mets have exactly 1 day off.

IIRC that violates the Labor Agreement. I thought there has to be a break every 20 or so days. Or was that negotiated out of the last agreement?

Later

[Elster88]

The off-day is September 14th, so the longest stretch is about 17 straight days.

[Guest Rotblatt]

15 June wins so far. I'm getting greedy and want 3 more, but will settle for 2.

New Hit List Rankings.

Mets check in at 3rd (.613), Sox at 5th (.594) and Yanks at 4th (.609).

Here's their Sox blurb:

]An eight-game winning streak gives the Sox some room at the top of the AL East. Most impressive is Jon Lester, who strikes out 10 in just his third major-league start; thus far he's posted a 2.76 ERA and struck out 19 in 16.1 innings, though his recent competition (Braves and Nationals) aren't exactly the '27 Yankees. Meanwhile, Sox fans give Brett Myers the welcome he deserves, and David Ortiz caps an emotional day with his 12th walkoff hit and eighth walkoff homer as a Red Sock (six in the regular season, two in the postseason, and that's right, two off of Tom Gordon). Ortiz is hitting "just" .267/.375/.557, a step down from last year's .300/.397/.604, but you won't get Sox fans to admit he's slipped.

This should be a great series. I'd like to see us take two, but it's all going to come down to the pitching. At a minimum, we need to avoid getting swept.

and the Yankees'

]Four wins in their last five games help the Yanks shake a 3-8 slide, but they end the week two games further out of first than they started. Mike Mussina outduels Dontrelle Willis to shake a four-start slump; since his complete game against the Tigers on May 31, the Moose had put up a 6.85 ERA in 23.2 innings. He's now fourth in the AL in VORP (30.5), sixth in SNLVAR (3.2), and third in strikeouts (100). Elsewhere in the rotation, as Shawn Chacon continues to struggle (22 runs, 18 earned, in his last five starts totalling a whopping 15.2 innings), the calls for 20-year-old phenom Philip Hughes to join the rotation are getting louder.

Gotta take 2 of 3 here, despite the pitching disparity.

Not much change in terms of our July opponents--I'll wait til next week's Hit List to update that.

In other news, our chance of hitting the playoffs, according to BP, has reached 99.5%. Our average number of wins, with the rest of the season played 1,000,000 times, is 99.9.

You can't see me, but I'm knocking on wood with my left hand as I type this.

[Frayed Knot]

Not to start prematurely ennumerating domestic fowl while still in their incubating stage - but this season has such a weird feeling to it.
After 5 years of hoping to simply be in the fight, which was preceded by several where seemingly every game for months had such live-or-die implications, to now where virtually everyone (and not just NYM fans) has declared the race over in June.

I mean 99.5 Freakin Percent!

The leads in the divisions right now are: 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.5, 0.5, .... and 12

[Guest Rotblatt]

Totally, Frayed. It's completely surreal.

A poster over at SoSH said that Willie needs to start resting our starters as much as possible and limiting their pitch counts in preparation for October. Which is over 3 months away.

Seriously, this is a little scary for me.

[Centerfield]

16 wins in July. Of course, I have no idea if that is good or not because Rotblatt never told us how many we should expect to win.