Derek Jeter.

[metirish]

Does anyone really think he is a sure Hall of Fame player, even setting aside my feelings about him and the yankees I just don't think he is that special.....here is a paragraph from Todd Jones who is writing a column for the Detroit Free Press...

] PHOENIX -- After Team USA players flew in for the World Baseball Classic, we all met in this room at the Ritz-Carlton. As guys stood and introduced themselves, you started to wrap your head around this concept: On Team USA, there are four locks for Cooperstown -- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Ken Griffey Jr. and Roger Clemens.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060310/SPORTS02/603100349/1050

[Guest sharpie]

Yeah, he'll make it even if he gets injured today and never plays another game.

I don't have to like it, but he's in.

[Elster88]

There is no reason to hate Derek Jeter. Any Met fan who does just has Yankee-envy.

It makes sense to hate Sheff.
It makes sense to hate Asshead.
It makes sense to hate Bonds.

Leave Jeter alone.

I'm getting dizzy way up on this soapbox.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

I would never support Clemens for the HOF because he's a murderer.

No, wait, that's from an argument I had with a girl in the 1970s about Ted Kennedy running for President.

Never mind.

[seawolf17]

No, right now, Derek Jeter is not a lock HoFer. Close, but not a lock. If he plays at this level for another two or three seasons, then I think he's a lock -- at that point, the WS titles push him over the top.

[Elster88]

Is he going to get 3,000 hits?

[Frayed Knot]

On his way but not a lock.
He actually wasn't even eligible until last year.

[Guest Rotblatt]

One of the real knocks against him are that he's only led the league in any categories only 5 times, and some of them are kind of bullshit categories:

R: 1998
H: 1999
Singles: 1997 & 1998
Times on Base: 1999

He's never finished higher than 3rd in MVP voting and only twice has he broken the top 10. He's never even won a silver slugger award, and with Nomar, A-Rod & Tejada around (and now Young & Peralta), you can't even say that he was the best offensive SS in his LEAGUE in ANY of the years that he played.

His defense sucks, but he'll probably still be called "one of the greatest defensive short stops in history" because no one likes defensive stats and because he won 2 GG awards--which were based solely on the fact that stupidly dove head first into the stands.

He'll probably get in because he's so well known, but IMHO, if he had come up with any other team, he'd merely be regarded as a good, consistent, above average performer who's been overshadowed by truely great players like Nomar, A-Rod & Tejada. In that scenario, he'd probably need another 1,000 hits (which he might very well get anyway) to be a legitimate HOF.

[Guest sharpie]

Rotblatt hit on the key thing, if he'd played anywhere else. But he doesn't play anywhere else and the NY media has gone apeshit over him for so long that there's no way he doesn't get "enshrined."

[Guest SwitchHitter]

Elster88 wrote: There is no reason to hate Derek Jeter. Any Met fan who does just has Yankee-envy.

I ain't no Met fan, so I can hate him. Seriously, he's not a defensive star and I'm tired of him be portrayed as so good at fielding short that A-Rod had to move for him. He ain't that good, his head is just that big.

Elster88 wrote: Leave Jeter alone.

No. I won't. My guy Everett gets short shrift because of Jeter. Everett is only the best-fielding SS in the majors.

So I don't like him and you can't make me.

[Elster88]

SwitchHitter wrote: ="Elster88"]There is no reason to hate Derek Jeter. Any Met fan who does just has Yankee-envy. I ain't no Met fan, so I can hate him. Seriously, he's not a defensive star and I'm tired of him be portrayed as so good at fielding short that A-Rod had to move for him. He ain't that good, his head is just that big..

So hate his manager.

SwitchHitter wrote: ="Elster88"]Leave Jeter alone. No. I won't. My guy Everett gets short shrift because of Jeter. Everett is only the best-fielding SS in the majors.

No one that I know of calls Jeter the best-fielding SS in the majors. (Michael Kay doesn't count.) Your boy's obscurity has nothing to do with Jeter.

SwitchHitter wrote: So I don't like him and you can't make me.

I don't give a crap if you like him or not. I'm not encouraging anyone to like him. I'm just pointing out that he has done nothing wrong. Nothing to inspire hate.

[Elster88]

]that stupidly dove head first into the stands.

I admire this play.

[Frayed Knot]

]... Everett gets short shrift because of Jeter. Everett is only the best-fielding SS in the majors.

There's a new book out on defense that apparently agrees with you.
In fact, there's said to be an entire Bill James-penned essay in it devoted to comparing Everett to Jeter glove-wise.

[nymr83]

In any vote not conducted by yankee fans Jeter is not a Hall of Famer YET, although he is very likely to be one by the time he is done.

But his career stats in a blind study of baseball fans with the name John Doe next to them and see if he'd get in, i doubt it.

[MFS62]

="Rotblatt"]One of the real knocks against him are that he's only led the league in any categories only 5 times, and some of them are kind of bullshit categories:

Yogi Berra is in the Hall, and he never led his league in any offensive category. And he never attained any "magic" number (like 3,000 hits), either. And Al Kaline led his league in only two (batting and doubles, once each) but had 3,000 hits.

A few more pretty good years, and Jeter will probably make it. Although, I still look at the "dominance at his position" gate. He may have only been the thrid or fourth best shortstop in his league over his career, depending on the year.

Later

[Elster88]

Not that that is a terrible thing. And he's certainly lasted longer than No-mah. Only to be overtaken by Tejada.

[Elster88]

Nymr83 wrote: But his career stats in a blind study of baseball fans with the name John Doe next to them and see if he'd get in, i doubt it.

I disagree.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

From Baseball Reference:

]Similar Batters Ray Durham (844) Arky Vaughan (841) * Travis Jackson (829) * Alvin Dark (824) Vern Stephens (823) Tony Lazzeri (817) * Bill Madlock (817) Lou Boudreau (813) * Jackie Robinson (807) * Jay Bell (805) Similar Batters through Age 31 Alan Trammell (877) Roberto Alomar (874) Arky Vaughan (863) * Ryne Sandberg (863) * Joe Torre (852) Frankie Frisch (838) * Bobby Doerr (834) * Travis Jackson (833) * Vern Stephens (830) Joe Cronin (829) * Most Similar by Age Joe Sewell (969) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Joe Sewell (965) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Joe Cronin (942) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Joe Cronin (924) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Joe Sewell (899) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Travis Jackson (896) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Travis Jackson (900) * 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Alan Trammell (905) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Alan Trammell (901) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C Alan Trammell (877) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C * - Signifies Hall of Famer

[MFS62]

If Jeter gets in, why not Trammell?

EDIT: Or to put it another way, if Trammell isn't in, why should Jeter be?

Later

[Frayed Knot]

]if Trammell isn't in, why should Jeter be?

The real answer is; that's why he's not a lock and why you wait to see how the rest of his career turns out.

You want the Yanqui fan answer?
1) He's clutch
2) He's 'The Captain'
3) Four Rings!!!!

In fact, all arguments as to why Jeter is better than all others are solved by those 3 statements.

P.S. I wonder how many times the word "Clutch" will appear on the plaque?

[Guest Rotblatt]

="MFS62"]Yogi Berra is in the Hall, and he never led his league in any offensive category. And he never attained any "magic" number (like 3,000 hits), either.

Berra won 3 MVP awards and finished in the top three 6 times. As for "magic" numbers, I'd say over 2,000 hits and 300 HR are pretty magic. Jeter will break 2,000, but I really doubt he'll come close to 300 HR.

Plus, there's no doubt that Berra was the premeire offensive C in the league during most of the years he played. Can't say the same thing about Jeter.

]And Al Kaline led his league in only two (batting and doubles, once each) but had 3,000 hits.

10 GG, 3 top 3 finishes in MVP voting, 9 finishes in the top 10. He led the league in SLG, OPS & OPS+ in 1959, led the league in 2B in 1941 AND led the league in intentional BB in 1959 & 1963.

In addition to his 3,000+ hits, he hit 399 HR--way more than Jeter's ever going to hit barring a Bondsian second wind--AND he stole 137 bases.

Definitely HOF worthy.

Jeter's just not, IMO--at least not yet.

[MFS62]

Everything you said was true. I was just commenting on that comment about "bullshit categories". Jeter has the rings, and has been highup in MVP voting, too. But that was outside the scope of my comment.

Later

[duan]

It's hard to know who to compare him to.

I think his best career comp is probably Barry Larkin, but he's been *that bit better* then Larkin all the way up. Larkin's a hall of famer to me so if Jeter continues he'll be too. He's not a hall of famer yet. A lot of things can go wrong from the ages of 31 to 35 (see Gonzalez, Juan for a great example!!!)

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I think if Jeter's career ended suddenly tomorrow, he'd become a Hall of Famer.

If he goes ahead and plays poor to average baseball for another five or six years, he can end up screwing up his credentials. So he's not a sure thing.

My guess is that he'll play well enough for the rest of his career that he'll make it easily to Cooperstown. Possibly on the first ballot, but maybe not.

[seawolf17]

In defense of his bbr.com similarity scores, 844 isn't terribly similar. What that really says is that Trammell was close, but not really that close. Jeter's been good; very good. But not LOCK Hall of Fame good. Yet.

[Guest Rotblatt]

So I was just reading a BP article on Bonds' chances of making the Hall had he retired in 1998 and they had a nifty short-hand test:

]There�s another very quick and dirty way to determine Hall of Fame careers in terms of cumulative worth and peak value. By looking at WARP3 we can determine how many historically dominant seasons a player had and how much career value they racked up. This is within the historical context that WARP3 provides. To make it easy on the eye, just count the number of times a player went into double figures in WARP3. This gives a pretty good accounting of dominant seasons. For instance, Stan Musial�s score for this exercise is 187.6/10--a total of 187.6 WARP3 and 10 seasons in double figures

Jeter's score is 76.9/2.

HOF SS ("modern era"--1977 on--SS indicated in bold; * indicate Jeter's peers)

Aparcicio 84.8/0
Appling 117.3/2
Bancroft 76.9/0
Banks 114.9/5
Boudreau 99.8/4
Cronin 102.9/3
G. Davis 111.3/0
*N. Garciappara 63.5/2
T. Jackson 57.6/0
H. Jennings 70.8/4
*B. Larkin 118.1/3
Maranville 85.8/0
PW Reese 99.5/2
*C. Ripken 158.6/5
Rizzuto 73.4/1
*A. Rodriguez 114.2/7
Sewell 87.4/0
Ozzie Smith 123.7/2
*Tejada 57.9/1
Tinker 77.6/0
A. Vaughan 123/5
H Wagner 185.6/9
B. Wallace 105.7/1
J. Ward 77.0/0
Yount 127.7/4

AVG: 101.7/2

Jeter holds up very well to the average HOF SS, although he could use a few more years. However, only 2 shortstops that have played from 1977 on have been inducted, and Jeter's going to need to stay in the game for a while longer and maybe have another dominant year before matching them. However, the game's changed even since Smith & Yount played and I think the standards have changed with them, thanks to Cal Ripken.

Jeter's nowhere near Ripken's caliber of player, and A-Rod would be one of the 3 best SS in the HOF if he stopped right now. Jeter looks like a better bet than Nomar & Tejada so far, although Jeter's got 2 years on Tejada . . .

Larkin fits in very well with Smith & Yount--kind of right between them in terms of dominance and pretty close in terms of overall contribution. Larkin, by the way, is considered to be a bit of a long-shot for the HOF and certainly not a HOF lock.

on edit: added Larkin

[Elster88]

I have a lot of trouble with the millions of calculations that some of these stat-heads use. I have a hard time getting away from what I learned in stats...about how every time an operation is performed it adds error into the result.

[Methead]

"adds error into the result"

Well, when discussing Jeter, you need to.

[Guest rpackrat]

]Jeter has the rings,

So does Charlie Silvera, that doesn't make him a hall of famer. Having rings only means that a player is part of a good team, not that the player is great.

[willpie]

If Jeter gets in the Hall and Trammell doesn't, I will officially be done with the Hall of Fame. Because that, my friends, would be bullshit.