Philospohical Discussion - How Long Do You Wait?

[MFS62]

Spinning off from my observation in the Frank Thomas thread, I just happened to look up Roberto Clemente's career stats.
He had one year in the minors, where he hit under .260.
In his first five years on the majors, he had a grand total of 100 Bases on Balls. TOTAL. In his fourth year he had 31, then retrogressed to 15 in his fifth year.

With today's emphasis on OBP, would you have kept him on your team?
The obvious answer should be YES, because he brought other things to the game (gap power, speed, defense, excitement). And those other talents were obvious to the most casual fan.

So, how long should we wait these OBP-conscious days for a young player like Reyes? Do we overlook his low walk rate and just sit back, enjoy the other things he does on the field and wait for him to improve his walk rate? Or does it even matter?

Later

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

MFS62 wrote: With today's emphasis on OBP, would you have kept him on your team?

Absolutely not. He averaged 34 walks per season in 18 years, as you can see here . He sucked at walking. His peak was a lousy 51 walks in a season. I would have kept him in the minor leagues until he went senile.

Actually, he had a pretty good OBP, anyway, despite walking at Reyes-rate. How'd he do that? Because he could hit, that's how.

Walks aren't what are keeping Jose from getting a decent OBP. They'd help, but walking, strike-zone judgment, a good batting eye, patience, call it what you will, is a real skill, and not so easy to develop. Jose has a better shot at batting like Clemente than walking like Eddie Yost (and a better shot at walking and batting like Ordonez than either Clemente or Yost.)

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I realize this is setting the bar pretty low, but I'm sure Jose Reyes will be a better hitter than Rey Ordonez.

[Guest KC]

>>>So, how long should we wait these OBP-conscious days for a young player like Reyes?<<<

I've lost patience with Jose, he's obviously just another Ordo���ez. Soon
he'll be wanting a big fat contract and besides he's blocking kids in the
organization from getting AB's.

[Guest KC]

Crap, I have to type faster.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

KC wrote: >>>So, how long should we wait these OBP-conscious days for a young player like Reyes?<<< I've lost patience with Jose, he's obviously just another Ordo���ez. Soon he'll be wanting a big fat contract and besides he's blocking kids in the organization from getting AB's.

Do you think Reyes will have a lifetime BA closer to Clemente's or Ordonez's? A BB % closer to Yost's or Ordonez's?

Another sucker-bet for me?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

KC wrote: Crap, I have to type faster.

I have to type faster crap.

[Guest holychicken]

Did you hear? We traded for delgado.

[Guest holychicken]

Crap. I have to type faster.

[MFS62]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: I have to type faster crap.

Bret, the little devil in all of us wants to ask:
"Why?You're doing just fine at your current speed."

But I won't, because I'm a nice guy.

Later

[Guest KC]

>>>Do you think Reyes will have a lifetime BA closer to Clemente's or Ordonez's?<<<

Who does Clemente play for? I couldn't find him on ESPN's site.

[nymr83]

Clemente had power even without walking and those were different times in terms of league averages...his OPS+ numbers the first 5 years were 76, 105, 73, 96, 91....those numbers dont earn you a big contract but they dont get you booted to the curb either...particularly before all this nasty free agency business, patience was more affordable then.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

KC wrote: >>>Do you think Reyes will have a lifetime BA closer to Clemente's or Ordonez's?<<< Who does Clemente play for? I couldn't find him on ESPN's site.

Did I mess up my very first link?

[Guest KC]

avi wuz here

[smg58]

It's never an easy question to answer. I certainly don't think Reyes is as untouchable as Wright. But he's also not killing us by a long shot the way Christian Guzman killed the Nats last year, or the way first and second base killed us last year. His glove is fine, and his offense is good for the position even if we all want a much higher OBP out of the leadoff spot. How long you wait depends on factors beyond Reyes too. If another team makes an offer for Reyes like he's a star player, or offers us a star player and asks for Reyes, I'm listening. If Anderson Hernandez sticks around the organization and makes progress this year while Reyes stands still, I'll know I have an option. I think you need to keep realistic expectations of Reyes, but that doesn't mean non-tendering him when he comes up for arbitration.

[nymr83]

one thing is true- its not Reyes' fault that the Mets see him as a leadoff hitter... how bad does he look when we look at him the context of a good-glove 8-hitter? (of course he'd have to get paid like one)

[Theoldmole]

I'm the type who has to crap faster.

[MFS62]

TheOldMole wrote: I'm the type who has to crap faster.

We'll just let that pass.

Later

[Willets Point]

MFS62 wrote: ="TheOldMole"]I'm the type who has to crap faster. We'll just let that pass. Later

That's what Mole's hoping to do.

[MFS62]

Ever notice how quickly this place goes into the crapper when Edgy isn't around?

Later

[Guest Matt Murdock, Esq.]

well, do you know where all threads eventually lead?

anybody?

Buehler?

[Guest rpackrat]

Reyes has been on the radar screen so long that I think we tend to forget that he's still only 22. According to baseball-reference.com, his most similar player through age 22 is Jack Doyle, a better-than-average hitter in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. His similar list through age 22 also includes Joe Cronin and Joe Tinker. Of course, there are also a number of below average hitters on ths list, though even these guys had decent careers (Mark Koenig, Red Kress). At this point, I think Jose's downside is a league average shortstop and his upside is much higher than that.

[Guest Edgy DC]

What's the best offensive season the Mets have ever gotten out of a shortstop?

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Wow. I'd have to say it's Jose Reyes, 2005.

My first instinct was to say Howard Johnson, but I looked and he never had a season where he played most of his games at shortstop.

[Guest Edgy DC]

The funny thing is that one contender is Kevin Ester 1989, in which he sets the Met record for homers by a shortstop with 10. But Howard Johnson also hit 10 homers as a shortstop the same year --- in only 31 games and 81 at-bats.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Jose Vizcaino 1995 is also a contender, but I'm thinking it's either Elster 89 (not to be confused with our own Elster 88) or Reyes 05.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Elster in 1989 had 106 hits, 34 walks, and scored 52 runs in 458 at bats. Had 10 homers and 55 rbi. 4 stolen bases. .231.

Vizcaino in 1995 had 146 hits, 35 walks, 66 runs, 509 at bats. Hit .287. 3 hr, 56 rbi, 8 steals.

Reyes last year had 190 hits, 27 walks, scored 99 runs in 696 at bats. .273 with 7 homers, 58 rbi and 60 steals.

Gotta give it to Reyes, I'd think.

[Centerfield]

Matsui in 2004 had 125 hits, 40 walks, scored 65 runs and hit 32 doubles in 460 AB's. He also hit 7 homers, had 44 RBI and stole 14 bases. His BA was .272.

[Elster88]

MATSUI SUCKS!!!!!!

[Guest Edgy DC]

Matsui's case is strong also.

Going by [(OPS+) - 60] * PA (Pretending that they spent all season at shortstop, even though some --- particularly Matsui --- got at-bats elsewhere.) Stolen base numbers are also shown.

Reyes '05: 14,660 (60 SB @ 80%)

Matsui '04: 14,252 (14 SB @ 82%)

Elster '89: 13,716 (4 SB @ 57%)

Vizcaino '95: 13,464 (8 SB @ 72%)

Harrelson '70: 12,958 (23 SB @ 85%)

Harrelson '67: 12,663 (12 SB @ 48%)

Taveras '79: 12,240 (42 sb @ 68%)

Taveras '80: 11,960 (32 sb @ 64%)

Not really a contest. Other seasons have approached his, but he blows them away with his legs.