Closer - 2006

[nymr83]

[Guest Rotblatt]

]"No way they want to send either guy, especially Delgado, within the division," is how one Met executive put it.

I drank that kool-aid initially, but now that the Marlins are selling off all their talent, what difference does it make where they go? I mean, it's clear that they're not going to compete next year, so who cares if they trade to a "rival"?

Incidentally, I think the Marlins conceding 2006 is good news for the NL East. We'll have our very own D-Rays to beat up on.

[Valadius]

Nightcrawler apparently likes what he sees, soon to get an offer from the Mets:

Mets set to make offer to closer Wagner

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Mets want Billy Wagner to come to New York, and the bullpen ace sounds as if he likes their sales pitch.

After two days of meetings with the pitcher and his wife, Sarah, the Mets were set to offer Wagner a contract Tuesday as they try to improve one of their biggest weaknesses from last season.

"They're not just trying to put a competitive team on the field, they're going to put a winning team on this field," Wagner said.

General manager Omar Minaya believes Wagner is the pitcher to help them do it.

"It's a judgment thing," Minaya said at Shea Stadium. "To be a closer I think itself is something that's difficult. But I do believe he has it to be able to do it in this town.

"The ability to bounce back, that's what makes closers special."

Wagner was 4-3 with 38 saves and a 1.51 ERA last season for Philadelphia, which wants to re-sign him. After spending most of his career with Houston, his two seasons with the Phillies showed the left-hander he could handle pitching in a tough city.

"I think if I had an opportunity to play in New York four or five years ago, I probably wouldn't have been as receptive to it," Wagner said. "After the trade of going to Philadelphia and playing there, I believe that's made it that much easier to handle the media, the pressures."

Wagner had lunch and dinner with a number of Mets officials Monday, including Fred and Jeff Wilpon and manager Willie Randolph. Minaya, who wouldn't detail what type offer the team would make to Wagner, knows it will be difficult getting him to leave Philadelphia.

"It's tough for a player to leave a team that he's already accustomed to, so we have to work even harder," Minaya said. "You have to give a reason why."

Wagner mentioned some of the reasons, including his family being comfortable and him being able to reach 400 saves -- he has 284. He also wants to play on a winning team, and the Mets are showing him they expect to be one.

"And that's exciting when you know the resources and the things that they're capable of doing," Wagner said.

[Elster88]

]"They're not just trying to put a competitive team on the field, they're going to put a winning team on this field," Wagner said.

Once, just once, before I die, I want a ballplayer to drop the bullshit and give me something along the lines of Cuba Gooding, Jr's thoughts from Jerry Maguire. Just last week Wagner was saying how impressed he was with Philadelphia's committment to building a better team and improving their staff and blah, blah, blah. STFU and sign a contract.

BTW, I think BJ Ryan >> Wagner from a who-should-we-sign view.

[Valadius]

You know, when you pose against a background with a team logo on it, you're probably leaning towards signing there if you're a free agent:

Billy "Nightcrawler" Wagner:

[Elster88]

I am happy with Wagner though. He's one of the better closers out there. Little man throws GAS.
_____________________________
This was Elster88's last post with the designation of a character from Super Mario Bros.

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Switch Hitter's kids would be Mets fans if Wagner came here.

[Centerfield]

If I'm the Phillies, I bring in Armando Benitez as part of my efforts to keep Wagner out of New York.

Gillick: "Hey Mando, why don't you tell Billy what it's like to be a top of the line closer on championship Mets team..."

[Guest Rotblatt]

In general, I don't want us to sign anyone until December 7, at which point, we don't have to worry about losing draft picks. Can Omar wait 15 days?

On the other hand, can the free agents afford to last that long? I bet Burnett lost some money when Beckett got traded, since the Sox probably won't enter the bidding . . . And if both Manny & Delgado get traded, the market willing to pay Konerko big bucks is going to get a lot smaller.

There's less talk of trading for closers, but only because the market's glutted with them. Which is why I think we can wait a while . . .

[nymr83]

just dont throw your fastball down the middle 10 straight times whenever you're in trouble and you'll be fine. i always thought that was Benitez's problem, he had 2 or 3 good pitches but when he got into a "clutch" situation he didn't believe in anything but his heater, hitters eventually catch up to fastballs when they know that its coming.

[Frayed Knot]

]i always thought that was Benitez's problem, he had 2 or 3 good pitches but when he got into a "clutch" situation he didn't believe in anything but his heater, hitters eventually catch up to fastballs when they know that its coming.

[deadhorse] Well, seeing as how the stats from Benitez & Wagner are
about as identical as 2 closers can be over a 5-6 year period, then it
would stand to reason that either Wagner is "choking" in about the same
rate as Armando, or that you believe Armando to be so dramatically
superior that his stats should be even better did he not have this
"problem".[/deadhorse]





OK, I give up ... why "Nightcrawler"?

[Elster88]

]"Hey Mando, why don't you tell Billy what it's like to be a top of the line closer on championship Mets team..."

"Hey Schmitty, what's it like to be the greatest third baseman of all time and get booed?"

Gimme a break. There are asshole fans in every town.

OE: I will only be posting another 19 posts. (much to everyone's delight I'm sure)
_____________________________
AN ALMIGHTY 119) KEVIN ELSTER POST

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

]OK, I give up ... why "Nightcrawler"?

The real name of the X-Men's Nightcrawler is Kurt Wagner.

I predict that this nickname will be as infrequently used as "Jake Monster."

[nymr83]

i believe that Benitez had about the same overall talent level as Wagner, BUT i think Benitez had the problem of relying solely on his fastball in big spots and thats what got him in trouble in the clutch when he seemed to be better in low-pressre spots.

[Frayed Knot]

You'll have a tough time proving the part about how he was better in "non-clutch" situations.
As much as Met fans tend to believe otherwise, Armando's bad outings during his stint here were randonly distributed thoughout the year and against a variety of teams rather than being predictable in advance.

[Vic Sage]

There you go again, Frayedy cat... FACTS. Always with the facts. What do facts have to do with anything?!!

[Willets Point]

="Frayed Knot"] [deadhorse] Well, seeing as how the stats from Benitez & Wagner are about as identical as 2 closers can be over a 5-6 year period, then it would stand to reason that either Wagner is "choking" in about the same rate as Armando, or that you believe Armando to be so dramatically superior that his stats should be even better did he not have this "problem".[/deadhorse] You need something like this FK:

seawolf17 Nov 22 2005 04:58 PM

Sometimes -- like specifically when talking about guys I don't like, such as the aforementioned Senor Benitez -- I don't like when people bring stats into the equation. As far as I'm concerned, Armando Benitez blew every single one of his save opportunities as a Met. And that's the way I'll always remember him.

Vic Sage Nov 22 2005 05:06 PM

But of course that says more about you than about Senor Benitez.

seawolf17 Nov 22 2005 05:08 PM

Right. But that's (a) my prerogative as a fan, to despise a former player who I think harmed my team, and ( part of the job of the modern closer. People will only remember the blown saves.

Edgy DC Nov 22 2005 05:12 PM

Now, now. Speak for yourself, Bobby Brown. OE: What's part of the job of the modern closer?

Valadius Nov 22 2005 08:40 PM

Omar has reportedly just made an initial offer to Billy "Nightcrawler" Wagner.

Frayed Knot Nov 22 2005 10:30 PM

That (an offer) was pretty much the plan following his 2-day tour of NYC. Now he likely goes back to Philly to hear a counter-offer. What he wants, of course, is to have one or the other blink and guarantee him a 4th year. I'm betting the initial offers don't have it but Wagner shirley knows that the Mets went there for Pedro. Bottom line on the Armando/Wagner comparison is that their stats (ERA, K/9, WHiP, BAA, Sv Pct, etc.) put them as close to identical twins as 2 closers can get after 6 or so years on the job -- or at least as close as a large, black, Dominican righty and a small, white, West Virginian lefty can get. So if the fan believes that Billy boy's hits given up and blown saves (which, virtually by definition, are going to pop up as often as Armando's did) are somehow going come at times where the fan won't mind then said fan is kidding himself.

metirish Nov 22 2005 10:47 PM

For what it's worth on MSG they showed the Wagner press conference and then the host said Wags was looking for 5 years,he said the Mets probably offered four years $40 million.

Valadius Nov 22 2005 10:48 PM

There's no WAY you can guarantee a five-year deal with a closer. No WAY!

Nymr83 Nov 22 2005 10:54 PM

i really dont like gauranteeing 4 either, i'd give 3 at 30 million with a 4th that kicks in based on innings in the 2nd and 3rd years, maybe a fifth that can be exercized by the club with a buyout

abogdan Nov 23 2005 08:41 AM

The Post says the Mets offered 3 for $33 with an year option based on innings pitched that would make the deal worth $44 million. I don't like it. Way too much to give to a reliever who will turn 35 in the first year of the deal.

smg58 Nov 23 2005 09:06 AM

$11M would be more per year than Rivera or Gagne. And with so many other relievers on the market, too. I couldn't support this if it's true. I hope the Mets remember that Beltran's contract is heavily backloaded, and that Reyes gets arbitration after 06 and Wright after 07. The "win now or die" approach is great if you win now, but...

Elster88 Nov 23 2005 09:11 AM

I'm currently driving the BJ Ryan bandwagon. Would anyone else like to climb aboard? _____________________________ AN ALMIGHTY 119) KEVIN ELSTER POST

Nymr83 Nov 23 2005 01:31 PM

i'm not so confident in Ryan. If Wagner will cost this much maybe its time to show Heilman some love and trade for a guy in June if necessary.

cooby Nov 23 2005 01:32 PM

I have a question: Is Looper officially GONE? (which would make Thanksgiving that much more meaningful)

Edgy DC Nov 23 2005 01:35 PM

Yes and no. He's a free agent, but hasn't signed with anyone.

cooby Nov 23 2005 01:37 PM

So there is still some trepidation...

Yancy Street Gang Nov 23 2005 01:41 PM

If Looper comes back (which I doubt) it'll probably be as an 8th inning guy.

Frayed Knot Nov 23 2005 01:42 PM

Elster88 wrote: I'm currently driving the BJ Ryan bandwagon. Would anyone else like to climb aboard? Fine with me but I suspect that BJR is content to wait until Wagner sets the benchmark with his deal. If Wags can wrangle $12/per then Ryan can ask for $10, if Billy gets $10 then he knows he's shooting for $8, etc. I think Omar prefers to strike early rather than to bypass Wagner only to wait around for Ryan only to find him almost as expensive and probably with more suitors.

cooby Nov 23 2005 01:42 PM

Soon enough to blow the game

metirish Nov 23 2005 01:49 PM

No worries Cobby, trepidation could come on the form of Tom Gordon.

cooby Nov 23 2005 01:52 PM

Cobby?

metirish Nov 23 2005 01:55 PM

LOL..sorry Cooby....

Valadius Nov 23 2005 03:34 PM

I've been on the BJ Ryan bandwagon most of the offseason - until I came up with "Nightcrawler". Well no, actually I still prefer Ryan, but either one looks good to me.

Yancy Street Gang Nov 24 2005 07:35 AM

From the Daily News: Wagner: It's a 'one-horse race' Billy Wagner criticized the Phillies' efforts to retain him, telling the Mets' Web site his current team is "taking one step back to take one step forward" and calling the Mets' pursuit a "one-horse race." The Phillies were believed to have upped their offer yesterday, guaranteeing a third year at roughly $30 million, but seem reluctant to trump Mariano Rivera's $10.5 million salary. The Mets initially offered three years at more than $30 million with an '09 option. Adam Rubin

seawolf17 Nov 24 2005 07:45 AM

Great! Omar loves one-horse races. I bet he doubles his offer to Wagner now. Wags: Well, Omar, I really like your offer, and I think I'm going to accept it. Omar: Three years, $30 million. Wags: Sure. That's great. Where do I sign? Omar: Four years, $70 million. Wags: No, seriously, I'm ready to sign. Omar: Five years, $150 million, we name the new ballpark Wagner Stadium. Wags: Um... I guess so. Can I sign now? Omar: Okay, fine! Five years, $200 million.

Rotblatt Nov 24 2005 08:04 AM

Yeah, I gotta say, when a free agent says "it's a one-horse race" I have two thoughts. Either: 1. The guy is really fucking stupid 2. The guy is desperately trying to shame a second horse into making a push. I'm guessing it's #2 in Wagner's case.

Frayed Knot Nov 24 2005 09:21 AM

Wagner mentioned in an interview the other day that both Boston & Atlanta had expressed interest - but at the same time said he had no plans for more tour-like visits so who knows how strong their "interest" is, or even if it truly exists. Smart money at this point bleieves he'll wind up in either NY or Philly but stuff like Vlad to Ananheim have a habit of coming out of nowhere. I'd really like to stay away fom a 4th year, or even a Glavine-like option that can be reached by merely decent performance.

smg58 Nov 24 2005 10:03 AM

Wagner's trying to push up the Phillies' offer, but it would be a major upset at this point if he doesn't sign with the Mets. Hopefully we won't be paying more per year than the Yankees pay Rivera ($10.5M), but we'll see.

Edgy DC Nov 24 2005 10:49 AM

It was a coded message. See, a Phillie is a horse, and a Met isn't.

abogdan Nov 25 2005 08:20 PM

The 2006 Met closer won't be B.J. Ryan. The News sez he's going to Toronto, 5 years, $47 million. Wow.

metirish Nov 25 2005 10:35 PM

WOW that's some cabbage for Ryan, Toronto said they had lots of money to spend this off-season, I guess they are spending it, what impact will this have on Wagner?

Rotblatt Nov 26 2005 08:41 AM

Okay, so that's just crazy. It makes all the other "proven" closers like Wagner & Hoffman & Gordon that much pricier. In this kind of market, I'd just as soon lay low . . . But we're clearly going balls out for Wagner. I still think he's going to wind up a Philly, though, which means we'll probably wind up with an overpayed Hoffman.

Frayed Knot Nov 26 2005 08:51 AM

I wouldn't have thought that Ryan would get that much per year ($9.4) OR that many years ... much less both. Toronto GM Riccardi, btw, is still denying the numbers or that there's a deal in place -- but that's just prolly because things aren't finalized yet.

Rockin' Doc Nov 27 2005 09:02 PM

Ryan's deal with Toronto will likely drive up the cost of closers. I think Toronto overextended themselves, both in terms of years and annual salary. They will likely regret this deal, but I could be wrong. Time will tell. I expect Wagner will try to use Ryan's contract to leverage a longer term on his deal. I would like to see the Mets land Wagner, but if they have to garuantee a fourth year, then they should let him go in my opinion. Particularly if they are looking at an annual salary of $11 mil., which I think is absurd. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Still a lot of time left before spring.

Rotblatt Nov 28 2005 12:43 PM

Huh. Dude over at Hardball Times thinks Ryan's deal may actually be worth it for the Jays. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-ryan-worth-it/

Nymr83 Nov 28 2005 12:53 PM

an interesting article with some interesting points, but my response would be this: even if you want a player, he is only worth $1 more than the next highest bid, and i find it hard to believe that anyone else made Ryan a 4 year commitment, much less a 5 year one at that kind of money.

Frayed Knot Nov 28 2005 12:59 PM

Newsday: BoSox reportedly to make offer to Wagner, maybe as soon as today.

sharpie Nov 28 2005 01:15 PM

Yeah, but will they take his wife to Phantom of the Opera?

seawolf17 Nov 28 2005 01:40 PM

Wait. We took Wagner to see Phantom Of The Freaking Opera? Why didn't we just kick him in the nuts and ask him to work in the team store before games?

Edgy DC Nov 28 2005 01:44 PM

I believe those were the terms of McEwing's last contract.

ScarletKnight41 Nov 28 2005 01:50 PM

seawolf17 wrote: Wait. We took Wagner to see Phantom Of The Freaking Opera? Why didn't we just kick him in the nuts and ask him to work in the team store before games? ROFL Wolf! I agree with you totally (although my 16-year-old disagrees vehemently - she loves that musical).

Yancy Street Gang Nov 28 2005 01:56 PM

Nymr83 wrote: an interesting article with some interesting points, but my response would be this: even if you want a player, he is only worth $1 more than the next highest bid. That's not entirely true, Namor. Let's take a fictional player, who likes sunshine, warm weather, and wants to get into the postseason. The Angels offer him $30 million over three years. Are you saying that the Brewers could sign him for $30,000,001 over three? I doubt it. They'd have to sweeten the pot quite a bit for him to opt to toil in Milwaukee. I'm not saying that players aren't mercenary. But other things do factor in as well.

Vic Sage Nov 28 2005 02:07 PM

Griffey took less to go to Cinncy. Paul O'Neil took less to stay in NY. It happens plenty. Not necessarily out of altruism, or sentimentality, but out of practicality. Moving your family is a huge pain in the ass, and taking your kids out of 1 school and putting them in another can be devastating for them. Some guys just like to work near where they live, rather than have to live where they work. Sure, all things being equal, money talks loudest. But all things are rarely equal.

Edgy DC Nov 28 2005 02:30 PM

""Money doesn't talk; it swears." -- Bob Dylan

Valadius Nov 28 2005 04:24 PM

We got him.

Edgy DC Nov 28 2005 04:25 PM

Huh? We got Vagner? Vhat is ze source? OE: Ah, ze udder threat.

Valadius Nov 28 2005 04:37 PM

Should we keep this going as a Bullpen - 2006 thread or let it die now that the need's been addressed?

Yancy Street Gang Nov 28 2005 04:40 PM

Valadius wrote: Creator of "Jake-Monster" and "Nightcrawler" Oh brother.

Elster88 Nov 28 2005 04:41 PM

Who the hell is nightcrawler?

Valadius Nov 28 2005 04:43 PM

Billy Wagner. Kurt Wagner is the given name of Nightcrawler in X-Men.

Centerfield Nov 28 2005 04:44 PM

Valadius wrote: Should we keep this going as a Bullpen - 2006 thread or let it die now that the need's been addressed? I done started another thread already.

Valadius Nov 28 2005 04:47 PM

Thanks CF.

Elster88 Nov 28 2005 04:47 PM

]Billy Wagner. Kurt Wagner is the given name of Nightcrawler in X-Men. I'll leave that one alone.

Yancy Street Gang Nov 28 2005 04:52 PM

"Bionic Woman" makes as much sense as "Nightcrawler". ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Creator of "Bionic Woman" and "Lint Monster."

sharpie Nov 28 2005 04:55 PM

Or "Siegfried" (Richard Wagner, the composer, wrote the opera). ---- Creater of "Siegfried"

Elster88 Nov 28 2005 04:56 PM

Maybe I should add "Creator of Asshead" to my sig line.

Johnny Dickshot Nov 28 2005 05:06 PM

test

Valadius Nov 28 2005 05:08 PM

Oh come on now...

Rockin' Doc Nov 28 2005 08:57 PM

Dickshot - Creator of "Caustic Fucktard" Game over. Thanks to all other contributors, but we already have our winner. That was a classic. If memory serves me, I believe Johnny (as Wide Bee Gee) first used the term "ass clown" on the old CPF.

Elster88 Nov 28 2005 11:25 PM

I was only kidding. I'm sure that people have called him an asshole long before any of us were born and will continue to long after we are dust. And by "him", I'm referring to a certain bat throwing juicehead psycho pitcher.

Valadius Nov 28 2005 11:48 PM

Oh, so that's who you meant... by all means, go ahead.

[seawolf17]

Sometimes -- like specifically when talking about guys I don't like, such as the aforementioned Senor Benitez -- I don't like when people bring stats into the equation. As far as I'm concerned, Armando Benitez blew every single one of his save opportunities as a Met. And that's the way I'll always remember him.

[Vic Sage]

But of course that says more about you than about Senor Benitez.

[seawolf17]

Right. But that's (a) my prerogative as a fan, to despise a former player who I think harmed my team, and ( part of the job of the modern closer. People will only remember the blown saves.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Now, now. Speak for yourself, Bobby Brown.

OE: What's part of the job of the modern closer?

[Valadius]

Omar has reportedly just made an initial offer to Billy "Nightcrawler" Wagner.

[Frayed Knot]

That (an offer) was pretty much the plan following his 2-day tour of NYC.
Now he likely goes back to Philly to hear a counter-offer.
What he wants, of course, is to have one or the other blink and guarantee him a 4th year. I'm betting the initial offers don't have it but Wagner shirley knows that the Mets went there for Pedro.


Bottom line on the Armando/Wagner comparison is that their stats (ERA, K/9, WHiP, BAA, Sv Pct, etc.) put them as close to identical twins as 2 closers can get after 6 or so years on the job -- or at least as close as a large, black, Dominican righty and a small, white, West Virginian lefty can get. So if the fan believes that Billy boy's hits given up and blown saves (which, virtually by definition, are going to pop up as often as Armando's did) are somehow going come at times where the fan won't mind then said fan is kidding himself.

[metirish]

For what it's worth on MSG they showed the Wagner press conference and then the host said Wags was looking for 5 years,he said the Mets probably offered four years $40 million.

[Valadius]

There's no WAY you can guarantee a five-year deal with a closer. No WAY!

[nymr83]

i really dont like gauranteeing 4 either, i'd give 3 at 30 million with a 4th that kicks in based on innings in the 2nd and 3rd years, maybe a fifth that can be exercized by the club with a buyout

[Guest abogdan]

The Post says the Mets offered 3 for $33 with an year option based on innings pitched that would make the deal worth $44 million.

I don't like it. Way too much to give to a reliever who will turn 35 in the first year of the deal.

[smg58]

$11M would be more per year than Rivera or Gagne. And with so many other relievers on the market, too. I couldn't support this if it's true.

I hope the Mets remember that Beltran's contract is heavily backloaded, and that Reyes gets arbitration after 06 and Wright after 07. The "win now or die" approach is great if you win now, but...

[Elster88]

I'm currently driving the BJ Ryan bandwagon. Would anyone else like to climb aboard?
_____________________________
AN ALMIGHTY 119) KEVIN ELSTER POST

[nymr83]

i'm not so confident in Ryan. If Wagner will cost this much maybe its time to show Heilman some love and trade for a guy in June if necessary.