2005 Crane Pool Forum Rankings Thread

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Here's mine, I'm up for any criticisms of it, sometimes it takes another person for me to notice something.

I used win-shares, traditional stats, and also put a little value in the Schaefer, because it gives me a better feel of who did things like carrying the team over stretches (ex: Cameron when he came back from injury).

1. Wright
2. Martinez
3. Floyd
4. Reyes
5. Glavine
6. Beltran
7. Piazza
8. Seo
9. Benson
10. Cameron
11. R. Hernandez
12. Heilman
13. Diaz
14. Anderson
15. Zambrano
16. Castro
17. Jacobs
18. Looper
19. Woodward
20. Mientkiewicz
21. Cairo
22. Matsui
23. Trachsel
24. Padilla
25. Offerman
26. Ishii
27. Koo
28. Graves
29. Aybar
30. DeJean

Edited December 28, 2005 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

1 Wright
2 Martinez
3 Floyd
4 Reyes
5 Glavine
6 Beltran
7 Piazza
8 Benson
9 Cameron
10 Seo
11 Diaz
12 Heilman
13 Zambrano
14 R.Hernandez
15 Matsui
16 Castro
17 Anderson
18 Jacobs
19 Looper
20 Mientkiewicz
21 Ishii
22 Cairo
23 Woodward
24 Padilla
25 Bell
26 Trachsel
27 Koo
28 Aybar
29 Graves
30 DeJean

[Zvon]

KC wrote: Interest in this seems to be less and less - I'll post my ranks before year end after I cross some i's and dot some t's. As noted in the first post, I edited the subject to make this the 2005 thread. I know they were rank, but why don't a couple of people take a crack at this for a hoot.

I missed this 1st time around.
Im interested and will post mine soon.

[nymr83]

I started with a list sorted by OPS+/ERA+, i adjusted up or down based on playing time...guys who played well are mostly higher than those who didn't, regardless of how often they played.
a few things i was unhappy with or still debating:
-- reyes- should he be even lower based on his 80 ops+?
-- benson & zambrano- should a full year of mediocrity get them above the relievers, diaz, and jacobs?
-- cameron- his hitting puts him 3rd in OPS+, i'm not sure if that ABs difference should let beltran sneak ahead of him
-- ishii & cairo- do they deserve any credit at all considering they stunk so badly for so long? i was tempted to bump them entirely for guys who got a few at bats or a few innings, but i felt it made more of a statement to put them where i did, purposely last, than to forget them.



1 David Wright
2 Pedro Martinez
3 Cliff Floyd
4 Tom Glavine
5 Carlos Beltran
6 Mike Cameron
7 Jae Weong Seo
8 Jose Reyes
9 Mike Piazza
10 Roberto Hernandez
11 Aaron Heilman
12 Mike Jacobs
13 Victor Diaz
14 Kris Benson
15 Victor Zambrano
16 Braden Looper
17 Doug Mientkiewicz
18 Ramon Castro
19 Steve Trachsel
20 Marlon Anderson
21 Dae-Sung Koo
22 Chris Woodward
23 Jose Offerman
24 Kaz Matsui
25 Mike Dejean
26 Danny Graves
27 Juan Padilla
28 Heath Bell
29 Kaz Ishii
30 Miguel Cairo

[Edgy MD]

I haven't ranked them yet, so who knows what I'm going to puke up there, but the last batch of rankers seem to love Seo a little more than 40% of a season should allow.

[Elster88]

Reyes only played in 160 games, so it makes perfect sense that Seo be ranked ahead of him.

[nymr83]

Seo had an ERA+ of 162, Reyes had an OPS+ of 80, thats the difference between a cy young winner and a bench jockey....the extra playing time wasnt enough for me to justify reyes being higher, and i thought of putting him lower.

[Edgy MD]

Cy Young winners play more than 40% of a season.

Yes, I figured you thought of putting Reyes lower when you wrote "should he be even lower...?"

[nymr83]

Edgy DC wrote: Cy Young winners play more than 40% of a season.

which is why i ranked Seo 7th and not 1st, where he clearly would have been if he'd played more at that rate of production

[nymr83]

OlerudOwned/Yancy, i'm wondering why you both have Benson so far ahead of Zambrano after very similiar seasons?

[seawolf17]

Okay, I'll play.

1 Wright
2 PMartinez
3 Floyd
4 Glavine
5 Reyes
6 Beltran
7 Piazza
8 RHernandez
9 Heilman
10 Benson
11 MAnderson
12 Seo
13 Cameron
14 Zambrano
15 Diaz
16 Castro
17 Woodward
18 Jacobs
19 Looper
20 Cairo
21 Mientkiewicz
22 Matsui
23 Ishii
24 Trachsel
25 Padilla
26 Koo
27 GWilliams
28 HBell
29 Aybar
30 Takatsu

[nymr83]

i don't think marlon anderson belongs so high, your rankins seem otherwise reasonable to me

[Zvon]

01 Wright
02 Floyd
03 Martinez (Floyd & Pedro are tied at 2 IMO)
04 Reyes
05 Glavine
06 Piazza
07 Benson
08 Beltran
09 Seo
10 Cameron
11 R.Hernandez
12 Heilman
13 Anderson
14 Castro
15 Jacobs
16 Diaz
17 Looper
18 Padilla
19 Cairo
20 Zambrano
21 Mientkiewicz
22 Woodward
23 Matsui
24 Ishii
25 Koo
26 Bell
27 Offerman
28 DeJean
29 Aybar
30 Graves

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Nymr83 wrote: OlerudOwned/Yancy, i'm wondering why you both have Benson so far ahead of Zambrano after very similiar seasons?

If you don't like that then dont look at Zvon's, jeez.

But Benson seemed to have a very productive, consistant season up until the late year meltdown v. Washington (the Jacobs game). Zambrano was consistant in his nausea causing control problems and wound up losing his rotation spot.

[Guest cooby classic]

Wow I just saw this for the first time and thought you were ranking us

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Don't give them ideas, cooby.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I need to dot more t's, but this is what I got so far ...

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Told ya this would get better traffic out here

1 Wright
2 Martinez
3 Floyd
*
4 Glavine
5 R Hernandez
6 Beltran
7 Reyes
8 Heilman
9 Cameron
10 Diaz
11 Piazza
>>>Imaginary position for Ray Durham<<<<<
12 Benson
13 Zambrano
*
14 Seo
15 Castro
16 Looper
17 Woodward
18 Anderson
19 Jacobs
20 Padilla
21 Mientkiewicz
22 Matsui
23 Traschel
24 Cairo
25 Ishii
*
26 Koo
27 Offerman
28 Bell
29 Williams
30 Daubach
31 Aybar
32 Graves
33 DeJean
*
34 Takatsu
35 Santiago
36 Daubach
37 Valent
38 A. Hernandez
39 DiFelice
40 Matthews
41 Hamulack
42 Heredia

[Guest d'Kong76]

5 R Hernandez?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

That took balls, didn't it?

* 162 ERA+ -- Best on the team among "regulars"

* Most appearances, there all year long, and so deserving of a rank somewhere among the Tier 2 guys, which I define as non-elite regulars. Only a workhorse bullpenner can really rank in this category.

* Simply better, relative to his peers, than Reyes & Beltran relative to theirs; Benson & Zambrano relative to theirs, etc etc

It's just where he wound up!

[Zvon]

thats a good argument JD.

Hey KC, when u do it, u do it up good!
I now have graphics envy.

[Frayed Knot]

The battle between the good part-timers and the mediocre full-timers is probably the biggest snag to overcome. I put more emphasis on those who actually played. Remember, this is a judgement of how the players contributed and not neccesarily how we think they might have done if they had been given more time, a better batting slot, a different role, etc. Putting up great numbers over 3 weeks can only help a team so much, and taking the angle that someone off the scrapheap could have done better than one of the starters is all fine and dandy except that we'll never know since no one else did start.

The way I like to attack this is to compare the position players against each other, then do the same with the pitchers before blending the two list like you're fanning a deck of cards together.

Position players (16):
There were 4 full-time position players who clearly deserve the top spots.
Of them, Wright gets top billing, then Floyd: I wanted to argue for it the other way around based on Cliff having more "BIG" moments during the season (and I think he did) but Wright finished up the year strongly enough to the point where his overall numbers were superior in almost every case.
Then comes Beltran then Reyes: it's tempting to reverse those two based on expectations and money, but Beltran wins with an extra 30 pts of OBA and more XBH

Of the not quite ready for prime time players (sub 400 ABs) Piazza gets the next spot. His nearly 100 more ABs, his position, and his HRs and position put him above first Cameron, then Diaz - who put up similar numbers but w/lesser defense - and then Castro.

That leaves Mientkiewicz along with the myriad of 2nd basemen to fight it out along with the irregulars - with the trickiest part figuring out what to do with Jacobs and his outrageous .710 Slg Avg despite only having only 100 ABs.
Mientkiewicz - based on starting most of the year and good stretches at the beginning - gets the next spot.
Matsui & Cairo were virtual twins (and bad ones at that) but I liked Kaz's occasional glimpses of excitement over Cairo's steady and boring umm ... Cairo-ness so I stuck them in that order and sandwhiched Jacobs for his power and then Anderson for his PH-ing prowess in between. Anderson gets some love for playing his role well, but we're not grading on the curve here and in truth he was pretty much a singles hitter who didn't play very good defense either.
Woodward had some big hits but considerably less playing time then most of the above.
Offerman then Ice Williams bring up the rear, with A. Hernandez, DeFelice, Daubach & Valent missing the cut.


Pitchers (14)
Pedro clearly takes the top spot.
Glavine's excellent 2nd half puts him solidly in second while Benson takes third place despite his.
Then it gets a bit tricky. Among the next tier; Seo had the best ERA/WHiP, Heilman logged the most time, while Roberto did the most heavy lifting.
I'm going with Hernandez first ... then Heilman who logged 53 appearances but wasn't getting the tough innings until late in the season. JW Seo was the best pitcher in spots but can't be higher after only appearing in 14 games (and 90 IPs as a starter) while spending more than half the season on the farm. The order of this group is obviously going to be a bone of contention.
Zambrano and Looper are a cut below that trio. Zambrano was inconsistant though rarely bad while Looper was occasionally both. Yeah Zambrano's ERA is similar to Benson's but his WhiP is much higher (walked almost twice as many) his W/L record not as good, and Benson's stats took a beating during a bad September by which time Zambrano was already out of the rotation.
Ishii wasn't as bad as the trashing he's taken suggests, but he always seemed to have the bad inning that would ruin any good work he had done and blow his stats all to hell.
Padilla's terrific ERA & WhiP nets him the next spot despite limited IPs.
Trachsel's 6 fairly mediocre starts place him next.
Heath Bell blew both hot & cold which added up to some pretty lousy numbers.
Koo's numbers were better, but pitched about half as much as Bell and really failed to do the LOOGY job he was brought in to fill.
And Manny Aybar wins the 3-way fight for the last spot, leaving the equally non-descript Mike DeJean and Danny Graves on the outside looking in along with Santiago, Takatsu, Ring, Mathews, Heredia, and Hamulak.


So combining the two lists together gets us:
30 - Wright
29 - Martinez
28 - Floyd
27 - Glavine
26 - Beltran
25 - Reyes
24 - Piazza
23 - Benson
22 - Hernandez
21 - Cameron
20 - Heilman
19 - Seo
18 - Diaz
17 - Zambrano
16 - Castro
15 - Looper
14 - Mientkiewicz
13 - Matsui
12 - Jacobs
11 - Ishii
10 - Padilla
9 - Anderson
8 - Cairo
7 - Woodward
6 - Bell
5 - Offerman
4 - Trachsel
3 - Koo
2 - Williams
1 - Aybar


Go ahead ... argue with that logic.

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: Go ahead ... argue with that logic.

....Just gimme a couple of days to read it.

I KID!

[Zvon]

Frayed Knot wrote: .... before blending the two list like you're fanning a deck of cards together.

Lol. Well put.

I cant argue.
Your list explaination is solid and airtight.
If i ever need an alibi, im going to ask you to write it.

Frayed Knot wrote: Ishii wasn't as bad as the trashing he's taken suggests, but he always seemed to have the bad inning that would ruin any good work he had done and blow his stats all to hell.

This is a real BINGO.
Ishii would look brilliant and then the wheels would fall off for just that one inning (if he was allowed to continue after it).
I always thought this was a lack of focus, and wondered what it was that would cause it.

Good list FK.
Well thought out.

[nymr83]

i'm cool with FK's list except for the same benson/zambrano issue i mentioned earlier

[Elster88]

Edgy DC wrote: Cy Young winners play more than 40% of a season.

I agree with Edgy. A person who plays at a high rate for a short time doesn't really contribute more than a person who plays at an average rate for an entire season. There's no way to explain this if the student refuses to wrap his head around the concept.

It's a matter of differing views on what makes up a "contribution", though IMHO it's not even an argument.

FK took an excellent crack at explaining it, by putting a LOT more effort into it than I would have. Well done FK.

Edited December 29, 2005 by Guest

[Elster88]

Seo had an ERA+ of 162, Reyes had an OPS+ of 80, thats the difference between a cy young winner and a bench jockey....the extra playing time wasnt enough for me to justify reyes being higher, and i thought of putting him lower.

There are many holes in this. I really have nothing to add to what Edgy and FK said, but I want to throw in my agreement with them.

[Elster88]

That's a beautiful chart KC. I'm going to steal it when I put my numbers down, if you don't mind.

[Edgy MD]

It's my big bugbear about the the use of bb-r.com stats. People with sub-100 OPS+'s or ERA+'s are referred to or treated as sub-average players. They aren't necessarily. That supposedly average performance is established at 100 by the best players getting the vast majority of plate appearances and innings pitched.

[metsmarathon]

this totally doesnt belong here, but it came up as a result of KC posting his beautiful table.

brian giles racked up the 4th most win shares in the majors this year. BRIAN GILES? damn. whodathunkit!?
also, houston had three of the top 4 pitchers in the NL. gawrsh!

mostly i'm stalling as i try to figure out how i wanna rank ppl. it'll probably be somewhat similar to KC's, with a bit of FK methodology thrown in for good measure...