Prediction thread: Who's staying and who's going

[Benjamin Grimm]

Here's a new kind of prediction thread. I'm going to list the names of ten players who are currently in the Mets organization. For each player, give a number, from 0 to 10, indicating how likely you think it is that he'll still be Mets property on Opening Day, 2006. (He doesn't have to be on the active roster. If he's in the minors or on the DL, it still counts as being present.)

If you think a player is definitely not returning, vote 0. Definitely returning, vote 10.

For every player who does return, your score will be the number you assigned to him.

For every player who's gone by Opening Day, your score will be 10 minus your number.

Example: You think Player A is unlikely to return, but you think there's a slight possibility that he will, so you give him a 3. If he does return, you were pretty wrong, so you only get 3 points. If he doesn't, you were mostly right, so you get 7.

A perfect score is 100. To get it you have to vote 0 or 10 for every player, and be correct every time.

You can guarantee yourself a wishy-washy 50 by voting 5 for every player.

Rumors may start swirling as we get closer to August 31, so the sooner you vote the more pure your guess will be. Voting will be closed once one of the ten departs, or August 31, whichever comes first.

Here are the ten players, in alphabetical order:

Cameron, Mike
Floyd, Cliff
Glavine, Tom
Looper, Braden
Matsui, Kaz
Mientkiewicz, Doug
Milledge, Lastings
Piazza, Mike
Seo, Jae Wong
Trachsel, Steve

[metirish]

Cameron, Mike - 10
Floyd, Cliff - 10
Glavine, Tom - 10
Looper, Braden - 6
Matsui, Kaz - 8
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 0
Milledge, Lastings - 4
Piazza, Mike - 8
Seo, Jae Wong - 6
Trachsel, Steve - 8

[Frayed Knot]

Cameron, Mike - 6
Floyd, Cliff - 9
Glavine, Tom - 9
Looper, Braden - 3
Matsui, Kaz - 4
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1
Milledge, Lastings - 8
Piazza, Mike - 2
Seo, Jae Wong - 6
Trachsel, Steve - 6

[Edgy MD]

Cameron, Mike 7
Floyd, Cliff 9
Glavine, Tom 3
Looper, Braden 6
Matsui, Kaz 5
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 8
Piazza, Mike 3
Seo, Jae Weong 4
Trachsel, Steve 5

[Benjamin Grimm]

Cameron, Mike 8
Floyd, Cliff 8
Glavine, Tom 7
Looper, Braden 4
Matsui, Kaz 4
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 6
Piazza, Mike 3
Seo, Jae Wong 6
Trachsel, Steve 7

[metirish]

I know my 8 for Piazza seems crazy but I have a feeling he might stay, actually 8 is a strong feeling but you never know.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Cameron, Mike 5
Floyd, Cliff 10
Glavine, Tom 5
Looper, Braden 3
Matsui, Kaz 2
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 10
Piazza, Mike 5
Seo, Jae Wong 4
Trachsel, Steve 6

NOTE: I edited Millege not realizing that if he was minor league he still counted.

[Vic Sage]

Cameron, Mike - 5
Floyd, Cliff - 7
Glavine, Tom - 7
Looper, Braden - 8
Matsui, Kaz - 3
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1
Milledge, Lastings - 9
Piazza, Mike - 1
Seo, Jae Wong - 3
Trachsel, Steve - 6

[Guest rpackrat]

Cameron, Mike - 5
Floyd, Cliff - 8
Glavine, Tom - 8
Looper, Braden - 3
Matsui, Kaz - 4
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1
Milledge, Lastings - 10
Piazza, Mike -2
Seo, Jae Wong - 7
Trachsel, Steve - 7

[Guest 86-Dreamer]

Cameron, Mike 1
Floyd, Cliff 10
Glavine, Tom 10
Looper, Braden 5
Matsui, Kaz 1
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 10
Piazza, Mike 2
Seo, Jae Wong 7
Trachsel, Steve 3

[Guest Rotblatt]

Cameron, Mike 0
Floyd, Cliff 10
Glavine, Tom 10
Looper, Braden 10
Matsui, Kaz 0
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 0
Piazza, Mike 0
Seo, Jae Wong 10
Trachsel, Steve 10

I'm going for broke. We will package Cam with Milledge and acquire Manny, trade K-Mat for a washed-up prospect (whereupon K-Mat will put up monster numbers in his new town), release Dougie, who will get a full-time job for a scrub team that will make a surprising run at the post-season in 2006 but fall short & we will release Piazza, who will become the DH/C for a West-Coast AL team.

Milledge will be moved along with 2 other prospects for Adam Dunn, who will play first. Also on the Sox, Cameron will play centerfield, while Damon will sign a 5-year, $70M deal with the MFY.

Cliff & Trachs will stay because we want them, Glavine because we couldn't deal him, and Seo because we want the Tides to win it all next year.

You heard it all here first.

[nymr83]

Cameron, Mike - 9
Floyd, Cliff - 10
Glavine, Tom - 10
Looper, Braden - 10
Matsui, Kaz - 0
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 3
Milledge, Lastings - 7
Piazza, Mike - 5
Seo, Jae Wong - 10
Tachsel, Steve - 10

byebye kazmat! (p.s. take ishii with you)

[Guest SwitchHitter]

Cameron, Mike 10
Floyd, Cliff 10
Glavine, Tom 10
Looper, Braden 8
Matsui, Kaz 6
Mientkiewicz, Doug 2
Milledge, Lastings 6
Piazza, Mike 6
Seo, Jae Wong 8
Trachsel, Steve 8

[Guest ScarletKnight41]

Cameron, Mike - 5
Floyd, Cliff - 7
Glavine, Tom - 6
Looper, Braden - 6
Matsui, Kaz - 2
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 5
Milledge, Lastings - 9
Piazza, Mike - 2
Seo, Jae Wong - 7
Trachsel, Steve - 7

[metsmarathon]

Cameron, Mike 7
Floyd, Cliff 8
Glavine, Tom 3
Looper, Braden 3
Matsui, Kaz 2
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 10
Piazza, Mike 10
Seo, Jae Wong 10
Trachsel, Steve 8

[dgwphotography]

Cameron, Mike 5
Floyd, Cliff 9
Glavine, Tom 3
Looper, Braden 3
Matsui, Kaz 2
Mientkiewicz, Doug 4
Milledge, Lastings 10
Piazza, Mike 9
Seo, Jae Wong 8
Trachsel, Steve 7

[DocTee]

Cameron, Mike - 4
Floyd, Cliff - 9
Glavine, Tom - 4
Looper, Braden - 8
Matsui, Kaz - 2
Mientkiewicz, Doug - 1
Milledge, Lastings - 8
Piazza, Mike - 6
Seo, Jae Wong - 7
Trachsel, Steve - 6

[seawolf17]

I wanted to go all tens and zeroes, but Rotty stole my thunder. So I'll mix it up a bit...

Cameron, Mike 0
Floyd, Cliff 7
Glavine, Tom 7
Looper, Braden 7
Matsui, Kaz 3
Mientkiewicz, Doug 0
Milledge, Lastings 3
Piazza, Mike 0
Seo, Jae Weong 7
Trachsel, Steve 10

[Theoldmole]

Cameron, Mike 6
Floyd, Cliff 9
Glavine, Tom 7
Looper, Braden 7
Matsui, Kaz 4
Mientkiewicz, Doug 5
Milledge, Lastings 9
Piazza, Mike 3
Seo, Jae Wong 1
Trachsel, Steve 8

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's time to archive this prediction thread.

If we remember, we'll revisit it after Opening Day and see how we've all done.

Winner gets a photo of Jane Jarvis.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Here's how everybody voted. Our consensus seems to be that Floyd is most likely to stay, and Mientkiewicz (remember him?) most likely to leave. The Points column all the way to the right are our current scores, with everybody still here. As players leave, the listing will be updated.

In the unlikely event that everyone does stay, Namor and Annie will be our winners, tied at 74 points.

And yes, I do have another magic spreadsheet going here. I've also figured out that the only way I can win this meaningless little competition is if Cameron, Floyd, and Trachsel stay, and everyone else goes.

	Cameron	Floyd	Glavine	Looper	Matsui	Mientkiewicz	Milledge	Piazza	Seo	Trachsel	Points
metirish	10	10	10	6	8	0	4	8	6	8	70
Frayed Knot	6	9	9	3	4	1	8	2	6	6	54
Edgy DC	7	9	3	6	5	0	8	3	4	5	50
Yancy Street Gang	8	8	7	4	4	0	6	3	6	7	53
Johnny Dickshot	5	10	5	3	2	0	10	5	4	6	50
Vic Sage	5	7	7	8	3	1	9	1	3	6	50
rpackrat	5	8	8	3	4	1	10	2	7	7	55
86 Dreamer	1	10	10	5	1	0	10	2	7	3	49
Rotblatt	0	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	10	10	50
Nymr83	9	10	10	10	0	3	7	5	10	10	74
SwitchHitter	10	10	10	8	6	2	6	6	8	8	74
ScarletKnight41	5	7	6	6	2	5	9	2	7	7	56
metsmarathon	7	8	3	3	2	0	10	10	10	8	61
Iubitul	5	9	3	3	2	4	10	9	8	7	60
DocTee	4	9	4	8	2	1	8	6	7	6	55
seawolf17	0	7	7	7	3	0	3	0	7	10	44
TheOldMole	6	9	7	7	4	5	9	3	1	8	59
Average	5.47	8.82	7.00	5.88	3.06	1.35	7.47	3.94	6.53	7.18

[Benjamin Grimm]

With Cameron gone, Rotblatt and seawolf get a big ten points, and 86 Dreamer gets 9. If nobody else leaves, though, Namor will be our winner.

	Cameron	Floyd	Glavine	Looper	Matsui	Mientkiewicz	Milledge	Piazza	Seo	Trachsel	Points
metirish	0	10	10	6	8	0	4	8	6	8	60
Frayed Knot	4	9	9	3	4	1	8	2	6	6	52
Edgy DC	3	9	3	6	5	0	8	3	4	5	46
Yancy Street Gang	2	8	7	4	4	0	6	3	6	7	47
Johnny Dickshot	5	10	5	3	2	0	10	5	4	6	50
Vic Sage	5	7	7	8	3	1	9	1	3	6	50
rpackrat	5	8	8	3	4	1	10	2	7	7	55
86 Dreamer	9	10	10	5	1	0	10	2	7	3	57
Rotblatt	10	10	10	10	0	0	0	0	10	10	60
Nymr83	1	10	10	10	0	3	7	5	10	10	66
SwitchHitter	0	10	10	8	6	2	6	6	8	8	64
ScarletKnight41	5	7	6	6	2	5	9	2	7	7	56
metsmarathon	3	8	3	3	2	0	10	10	10	8	57
Iubitul	5	9	3	3	2	4	10	9	8	7	60
DocTee	6	9	4	8	2	1	8	6	7	6	57
seawolf17	10	7	7	7	3	0	3	0	7	10	54
TheOldMole	4	9	7	7	4	5	9	3	1	8	57
Average	4.53	8.82	7.00	5.88	3.06	1.35	7.47	3.94	6.53	7.18

Nymr83	66
SwitchHitter	64
metirish	60
Iubitul	60
Rotblatt	60
metsmarathon	57
TheOldMole	57
DocTee	57
86 Dreamer	57
ScarletKnight41	56
rpackrat	55
seawolf17	54
Frayed Knot	52
Vic Sage	50
Johnny Dickshot	50
Yancy Street Gang	47
Edgy DC	46

[Benjamin Grimm]

Piazza, Looper, and Mientkiewicz are now all officially gone, so here are the updated scores.

Namor's certainty in Looper's return costs him, as does his hedging on Piazza and Mientkiewicz.

The ultimate fates of Matsui and Milledge will probably decide this contest.

	Cameron	Floyd	Glavine	Looper	Matsui	Mientkiewicz	Milledge	Piazza	Seo	Trachsel	Points
metirish	0	10	10	4	8	10	4	2	6	8	62
Frayed Knot	4	9	9	7	4	9	8	8	6	6	70
Edgy DC	3	9	3	4	5	10	8	7	4	5	58
Yancy Street Gang	2	8	7	6	4	10	6	7	6	7	63
Johnny Dickshot	5	10	5	7	2	10	10	5	4	6	64
Vic Sage	5	7	7	2	3	9	9	9	3	6	60
rpackrat	5	8	8	7	4	9	10	8	7	7	73
86 Dreamer	9	10	10	5	1	10	10	8	7	3	73
Rotblatt	10	10	10	0	0	10	0	10	10	10	70
Nymr83	1	10	10	0	0	7	7	5	10	10	60
SwitchHitter	0	10	10	2	6	8	6	4	8	8	62
ScarletKnight41	5	7	6	4	2	5	9	8	7	7	60
metsmarathon	3	8	3	7	2	10	10	0	10	8	61
Iubitul	5	9	3	7	2	6	10	1	8	7	58
DocTee	6	9	4	2	2	9	8	4	7	6	57
seawolf17	10	7	7	3	3	10	3	10	7	10	70
TheOldMole	4	9	7	3	4	5	9	7	1	8	57
Average	4.53	8.82	7.00	4.12	3.06	8.65	7.47	6.06	6.53	7.18

86 Dreamer	73
rpackrat	73
Rotblatt	70
seawolf17	70
Frayed Knot	70
Johnny Dickshot	64
Yancy Street Gang	63
SwitchHitter	62
metirish	62
metsmarathon	61
Nymr83	60
ScarletKnight41	60
Vic Sage	60
Iubitul	58
Edgy DC	58
TheOldMole	57
DocTee	57

[Benjamin Grimm]

I know that nobody's terribly interested in this, including myself. Here's the latest update, to reflect the departure of Jae Seo. Old Mole and Vic Sage were most confident that Seo would be gone, and now reap the benefits by moving up in the standings. Rotblatt, Namor, and Marathon were sure Seo wouldn't go, and drop accordingly.

86 Dreamer	69
rpackrat	69
Frayed Knot	68
seawolf17	66
Johnny Dickshot	66
TheOldMole	65
Vic Sage	64
Yancy Street Gang	61
Rotblatt	60
metirish	60
Edgy DC	60
SwitchHitter	56
ScarletKnight41	56
DocTee	53
Iubitul	52
metsmarathon	51
Nymr83	50

	Cameron	Floyd	Glavine	Looper	Matsui	Mientkiewicz	Milledge	Piazza	Seo	Trachsel	Points
metirish	0	10	10	4	8	10	4	2	4	8	60
Frayed Knot	4	9	9	7	4	9	8	8	4	6	68
Edgy DC	3	9	3	4	5	10	8	7	6	5	60
Yancy Street Gang	2	8	7	6	4	10	6	7	4	7	61
Johnny Dickshot	5	10	5	7	2	10	10	5	6	6	66
Vic Sage	5	7	7	2	3	9	9	9	7	6	64
rpackrat	5	8	8	7	4	9	10	8	3	7	69
86 Dreamer	9	10	10	5	1	10	10	8	3	3	69
Rotblatt	10	10	10	0	0	10	0	10	0	10	60
Nymr83	1	10	10	0	0	7	7	5	0	10	50
SwitchHitter	0	10	10	2	6	8	6	4	2	8	56
ScarletKnight41	5	7	6	4	2	5	9	8	3	7	56
metsmarathon	3	8	3	7	2	10	10	0	0	8	51
Iubitul	5	9	3	7	2	6	10	1	2	7	52
DocTee	6	9	4	2	2	9	8	4	3	6	53
seawolf17	10	7	7	3	3	10	3	10	3	10	66
TheOldMole	4	9	7	3	4	5	9	7	9	8	65
Average	4.53	8.82	7.00	4.12	3.06	8.65	7.47	6.06	3.47	7.18

[Guest cooby]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I know that nobody's terribly interested in this, including myself.

A good prize might get them more worked up about it, Yancy

[Benjamin Grimm]

How about a date with Lisa Loeb, or whatever her name is?

[Guest cooby]

That's one contest I'd try to lose on purpose

[Benjamin Grimm]

Hey, we both have 1969 Mets sitting on our heads!

[Guest cooby]

Yeah, what's up with Jerry Grote? Is he #2, maybe?

[Edgy MD]

Was this scoring final. This was a good idea, if cumbersome for Yancy.