Trade Talks with the Padres

[Centerfield]

Mets are engaged in trade talks with the Padres, per multiple reports. Names being discussed are Nick Pivetta, Ramon Laureano, and Mason Miller. Padres are said to like the Mets young big leaguers and prospects, in particular Jonah Tong.

My thoughts. Pivetta is a nice pitcher, but a regression candidate. We would be buying high. Similar thoughts about Laureano. Regression candidate. His ceiling is similar to Polanco, but could also just as easily post a .650 OPS.

I don’t think we should give up top prospects for a reliever. Even one as good as Miller.

The Padres deny it. But they have to be facing financial constraints. They have some of the worst contracts in the game. Darvish is in year 4 of his 6 year extension. He’s already toast. The Boegarts deal is a disaster. Machado is still productive and making $25M. But starting next year that salary jumps to $39M. He’ll be 34 and signed for seven more seasons!

Even the Tatis contract is not good. He’s making $20M this year. Then jumps to $25M. Then when he turns 30, that number jumps to $36M. And maybe that’s worth it if he’s a .900+ OPS shortstop. But not really if he’s an .800ish corner OF, which is what he’s been since his PED suspension. They don’t need to move him now. But they have less than three seasons, and that’s assuming he keeps producing, and assuming no further suspensions.

The Mets have leverage. How that translates into an actual deal, I have no clue. But if there’s a trade, it would be malpractice to lose it.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets have shown an exotic interest in guys who got their long-term contract before their PED disgrace, and now have leveled off to something like what they probably were all along without the cheating, and while the market has caught up with their contracts, their performing as their real selves makes the contract still a declining asset. And even rooting for the allegedly honest version of such guys feels dirty from a fan perspective.

But the Mets see such a character from across the room and think, "Who is that hottie?!"

[Lefty Specialist]

Padres have leverage, too. Stearns has pretty much whiffed this off-season and the pressure is on him to do something big. Uncle Steve's looking over his shoulder.

I would really hate to lose Tong- I think he's going to be something special with a little seasoning.

[Frayed Knot]

Mets are engaged in trade talks with the Padres, per multiple reports. Names being discussed are Nick Pivetta, Ramon Laureano, and Mason Miller. Padres are said to like the Mets young big leaguers and prospects, in particular Jonah Tong.

 

Mason Miller is a name that would get the likes of Jonah Tong involved.

A 3rd round pick in 2021 by ATH; called-up in 2023; 4th in RoY voting w/ATH in 2024; dealt to SD last trading deadline.

In his split year with ATH/SDP he combined for a 2.63 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 in 60 G/61.2 IP (is that something I can interest you in?)

Career stats are 2.81 ERA/0.95 WHIP and will bring four years of team control with him and he doesn't turn 28 until August '26.

That's more or less where Edwin Diaz was at the time of his deal from Seattle. So just assuming here a one-for-one swap [Miller for Tong], we'd be giving up six years of control for four and a (potential) starter for a reliever, but also more of a known quantity for an unknown at the ML level ... so this is something worth looking at.

The article in the Athletic (which seems to be the source of these rumors) says only that the two teams "are engaging". The names on both sides look to be a combo of rumored names combined with speculation about what each could conceivably want from the other.

Excerpts: The teams are engaging, according to people briefed on their conversations. Neither of their rumored superstars, Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor nor Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., are part of the talks ... However, a number of Padres players who would fit the Mets’ needs are under discussion, as are a number of Mets youngsters who could help the Padres ... The Padres’ players in the talks include right-hander Nick Pivetta, outfielder Ramón Laureano and relievers Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada. San Diego, in turn, is asking the Mets about their young major leaguers and all of their top prospects, both pitchers and position players.

No deal appears close. None will necessarily come to pass. The Padres might prefer to trade players individually rather than package them together in any combination.

Bottom line is that SDP are looking to shed some payroll for cheaper rookie/near-rookie guys with longer control while the Mets could use some ready-to-use parts so the mutual interest is logical.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Buster Olney is apparently projecting that the Mets will trade virtually all of their young prospects, except for McLean in two deals, one with the Padres and the other with the Tigers. In return they'd get Skubal and Tatis and would take on the contract of Bogaerts.

I'll believe it when it happens.

[Edgy MD]

I would really hate to lose Tong- I think he's going to be something special with a little seasoning.

 

I certainly agree about Tong.

I would really hate to lose any of them. I lament the loss of the two guys we gave up for Gregory Soto (Wellington Aracena and Cameron Foster). To think of the small army of talent we sent away at the deadline makes me want to cry.

The idea that Tong is seen as the best asset to move in order to save 2026 instead of as the best tentpole attraction to make the next decade shiny and joyful is something that just makes me want to break stuff.

[Frayed Knot]

Buster Olney is apparently projecting that the Mets will trade virtually all of their young prospects, except for McLean in two deals, one with the Padres and the other with the Tigers. In return they'd get Skubal and Tatis and would take on the contract of Bogaerts.

 

Baseball writers, particularly national ones, salivate at the idea that mega-deals like that might even possibly happen.

[smg58]

The Padres paid a massive price for Miller at the deadline -- far more than I would pay for any reliever -- and won't deal him unless they turn a profit. While Miller is really good, I don't think he is a good bet to stay healthy for long enough to be worth it. Plus, "really good" for a relief pitcher is 2.0 WAR.

If the Mets had gotten Laureano from the Orioles instead of Mullins, they would have made the playoffs. The package the Padres sent to Baltimore included none of their top 30 prospects. Plus Laureano had a no-brainer club option for $6M in 2026. That deal was highway robbery on the Padres' part. But it's water under the bridge. With Rob Refsnysder and Miguel Andujar still available as right-handed outfielders who could hold the job until Benge is ready and still play a platoon role afterwards, I'm not giving up value for him. In fact, allowing the Padres to turn a profit on him would make last year's deadline failures look much worse.

If everybody wants Jonah Tong, the Mets should want Jonah Tong. As the current #6 option for the rotation and an optionable arm, I don't see how he's even expendable right now. One injury or series of poor starts from somebody, and Tong gives the Mets the same 2.0 WAR they are likely to get from Miller this year.

Edited December 15, 2025 by smg58

[Edgy MD]

I have a lot of general objections to the various WAR measurements, but I specifically think doesn't a very good job summing up the value of relief pitchers relative to other players or relative to one another.

I certainly agree, however, that Tong's contract is the greater asset.

[Gwreck]

A week and a half ago, trading prospects for relievers wouldn’t have made much sense to me given that there were a plethora of standout relief options that cost nothing but money. Of course, the Mets didn’t sign any of them (Diaz, Suarez, Rogers) so maybe it’s time to think differently. A Mason Miller, coming with multiple years of team control, is worth strongly considering.

That said, there are many holes on this team that are much more significant than the bullpen (middle-of-order hitter; reliable starting pitching) and that’s where key prospects for trades are better deployed.

[ashie62]

The Padres paid Leo DeVries, the current #3 MLB.com prospect in all of baseball for Mason Miller

So Jonah Tong is likely not enough

I'm happy to have Pivetta even if he would only be good and cost effective for one year. It's less of a gamble than looking for a Griffin Canning type to come in and be better than a backend starter. Pivetta has and should continue to pitch like an ace on occasion

It would not be surprising if the Padres asked about Francisco Alvarez who is young cheap and serviceable

Aside from the Padres is Fransisco Lindor going to be back? I'll give it an 80% likelihood

[metirish]

I don't know, but I'm not all that excited about Nick Pivetta

[Cowtipper]

Pivetta is an excellent candidate to let us down and post a 5.00 ERA in a Mets uniform. 56-71 with a 4.76 ERA before last year. No thanks.

[DocTee]

I'd prefer Jackson Merrill to Laureano, but so would anyone with eyes.

Wonder what it would take to pry him away from Sandy Eggo?

[Centerfield]

Merrill regressed a bit last year but still put up a .774 OPS and played a strong centerfield. He's making $11M, this year, as part of a 9 year, $135M contract. His salary increases to $20M 4 years from now, and only takes him to 31 years old. I doubt they look to move him.

As mentioned above, Pivetta is a strong candidate for regression. In addition to being a standout year, his FIP was 3.49, which suggests a bit of luck. No doubt he also benefited from moving from Fenway to Petco. If Pivetta does well, he'll opt out. The last two years of his contract are his decision. So it's a rental, where you only get to keep him if he's terrible or hurt.

Ramon Laureano has been good for about a year and a half. He's put up a mid 800's OPS during that time and hit 24 HRs last year. But that's about the limit to his upside. And before that you have a long history of low .700s, mid .600s OPS. He'd also be a rental, as he's a free agent after this year.

Pivetta and Laureano are not worth giving up anything worthwhile. They'll ask too much for Mason Miller. And likely Jackson Merrill is not available. So I don't see how we line up, except that SD has to shed payroll. The Tatis contract has an expiration date of about 3 years. Bogaerts is already underwater, Machado's will be a disaster starting next year, and Darvish is already useless, with three more years left.

I thought that maybe the Mets could line up with SD by taking on some bad salary. But given Stearns unwillingness to sign long term deals to his own players, I don't see him agreeing to take on bad contracts from another team. Plus, except the Darvish contract, the other deals are so long, you can't justify taking them back. Mason Miller or not.

[Centerfield]

Looking at it from AJ Preller's standpoint, I would think you have a 1-2 year window since Machado is 33. After that, you're probably looking at a rebuild. Why not go for it these last two years, then just eat it for the next half decade. They spent a ton of money starting with signing Machado. All they have to show for it is one NLCS appearance.

If you're not looking to add, then you should tear down now. Shop Tatis, Mason Miller and Jackson Merrill. Anyone interested in taking them has to take Bogaerts/Machado. You'll have to throw in money to move them, but at least you can start with a clean slate relatively soon.

[Gwreck]

They spent a ton of money starting with signing Machado. All they have to show for it is one NLCS appearance.

 

San Diego also has had 5 consecutive banner years in attendance, ranking top 5 each year 2021-25, despite being in about the 20th largest market in MLB. Only the Dodgers (with a much larger stadium) had a higher attendance than the Padres this year. San Diego basically sold out the entire season in 2025 and weren’t far behind in 2024. By comparison, San Diego ranked between 14 and 21st overall in each of the 10 seasons from 2010 to 2019.

Sure, the playoff results aren’t there, and it’s not easy to win the division when you’ve got the Dodgers around…but if I’m running the Padres, I’m in no hurry to tear things down.

[MFS62]

Laureano is a right handed hitting centerfielder who can hit (his weight). That would be a welcome change.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Also has a killer throwing arm.

[Gwreck]

He’s a corner outfielder (hasn’t played center full time since 2019) but has made occasional appearances in center (15-20 games a year).

[MFS62]

He’s a corner outfielder (hasn’t played center full time since 2019) but has made occasional appearances in center (15-20 games a year).

 

Last time I checked They could use a LF with some RH pop, too.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Stearns seems to be wanting Benge to establish himself, so I can see them committing more heavily to a corner outfielder than a center fieler.

[Gwreck]

He’s a corner outfielder (hasn’t played center full time since 2019) but has made occasional appearances in center (15-20 games a year).

 

Last time I checked They could use a LF with some RH pop, too.

Later

 

100%. And I’m a Laureano fan and think he’d be a fine addition. I just don’t think he’s a CF solution.

[Centerfield]

They spent a ton of money starting with signing Machado. All they have to show for it is one NLCS appearance.

 

San Diego also has had 5 consecutive banner years in attendance, ranking top 5 each year 2021-25, despite being in about the 20th largest market in MLB. Only the Dodgers (with a much larger stadium) had a higher attendance than the Padres this year. San Diego basically sold out the entire season in 2025 and weren’t far behind in 2024. By comparison, San Diego ranked between 14 and 21st overall in each of the 10 seasons from 2010 to 2019.

Sure, the playoff results aren’t there, and it’s not easy to win the division when you’ve got the Dodgers around…but if I’m running the Padres, I’m in no hurry to tear things down.

 

Right. Which is why I'm skeptical of any matchup in terms of trade. Unless you're trading Tatis or Merril, you're not unloading Boegarts or Machado. And since Machado is still effective, why not go for these next two years.

The rebuild will be long and expensive, but flags fly forever.

[Gwreck]

San Diego just re-signed King for 3/$75.

[metirish]

Is that a good deal for them and him? Honestly don't know what's value these days

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think that's pretty much what Manaea got after the 2024 season.

[smg58]

Which means it's value, for the Padres at least.

The first year is $22M (i.e., the amount of the qualifying offer King rejected), and comes with a player option. So it gives King some added security without making the Padres pay more for him this season than they were already willing to pay him.

Edited December 19, 2025 by smg58

[Edgy MD]

Is that a good deal for them and him?

 

It's a King's ransom.

[Centerfield]

I think it’s a deal that only made sense for the Padres. For the team, it’s a three year commitment but only a one year guarantee. Meaning you’re only getting one good year, but up to three bad ones. When you factor in the QO it doesn’t make sense for a rental.