MLB Hot Stove 2025-2026 offseason

[Lefty Specialist]

Yeah, that deal with the Astros would have been easy for the Mets. Not even a long term deal.

[Edgy MD]

A three-year deal with two opt-outs is something of a double trap, though. The worse he does, the longer you keep him. The better he does, the shorter you keep him.

During the Alonso negotiations from last year, David Stearns declared himself to be leery of the lack of reciprocity in such deals.

[smg58]

I'm not a fan of opt-outs for non-elite players. I'm really not a fan of opt-outs for pitchers, elite or otherwise.

[metsmarathon]

Hmm.. didn’t know about the opt outs. Curious.

I’d still be willing to run the risk of it. I do agree though that all the risk is on the club, but how do you square that particular circle?

[Edgy MD]

The only way to square it to sign the right players on the right terms and walk away from those whose terms are not worth it.

Be nimble, trust that you bring something to the table too, and realize that there are always other otters in the stream.

It is a lot like love, actually.

[MFS62]

Mark Feinsand reporting that that Japanese 1B/3B slugger Kazuma Okamoto has signed with the Blue Jays.

Later

[ashie62]

I am happy that the Mets are keeping their roster gluten free

[smg58]

I'm a bit surprised that Okamoto was the Japanese player that fared the best in free agency. I don't think the Mets did poorly getting Polanco for the half the years. But the Mets do still need a consequential righthanded bat.

[The Hot Corner]

I'm a bit surprised that Okamoto was the Japanese player that fared the best in free agency. I don't think the Mets did poorly getting Polanco for the half the years. But the Mets do still need a consequential righthanded bat.

 

A right-handed bat would be nice, but there aren't many of them available without going the trade route. The Mets do not appear to be willing to trade the young players/prospects it would take to land a right handed, middle of the line up bat. Of the free agent bats still available, few really match up with the Mets need for an outfielder or corner infielder (particularly a first baseman) that can drive in runs. The right-handed hitters available via free agency are Bichette, Bregman, and Saurez. Bichette would be my preference, but as a middle infielder, he doesn't fit the Mets needs. Bregman could man third, but I think the Mets are hoping that Baty will stake his claim to the position. Since I don't believe Bregman is likely change positions, he really doesn't meet the Mets needs. Saurez provides the right handed power this line up needs and could likely be the least expensive option (as far as cost/years), but again not an ideal fit. Unless the Mets think Saurez's 6 innings of MLB experience at first base is enough to have him compete with Polanco for the spot.

Though he does not answer the need for a right handed bat, I believe that Bellinger is the best free agent option for the Mets. He can play either first base or any of the outfield spots and he can provide some much needed power to the lineup. Unfortunately, he is a left-handed bat, but I would be pretty happy if he replaced Nimmo's bat in the line up. The problem I see with Bellinger, is that I don't think the Mets are willing to give him the contract they wouldn't offer to Alonso, so I expect he will end up back with the Yankees or possibly the Dodgers.

[Frayed Knot]

I thought we had a mini-discussion on good but oft-injured Miami hurler Edward Cabrera somewheres about ... but I couldn't find one.

So I'll put it here since he was just dealt to the Cubs for three prospects including CHC's top one, OF Owen Caissie

Caissie (Kay-see) was a 2020 2nd round draft pick out of Ontario, Canada before working his way to mid-top-100 prospect status in both the pre-2024 & '25 lists.

After a solid 100 games at AAA Iowa this past season he snagged two dozen ML ABs in August.

IFs Cristian Hernández and 19 y/o Edgardo De Leon are the other two.

[The Hot Corner]

The Cubs (potentially) paid a steep price for Edward Cabrera. As with most trades, I guess it all depends how well Cabrera performs for the Cubs versus how good Owen Caissie (Cubs #1 prospect), Cristian Hernández (Cubs #11 prospect) and Edgardo De Leon eventually turn out to be.

It would appear that the trade package for Skubal (or even Peralta) would be extremely high. Talk about betting the farm. It will be what happens in the next few weeks.

[smg58]

It's an interesting deal. I don't think Fangraphs likes Caissie nearly as much as mlb.com does, so he's a bit controversial. But I'm not trading my best prospect for Cabrera or Peralta or Lopez; they're just not good enough. As for Skubal, the Tigers would be slamming their window of contention shut. I just don't see it happening, no matter how much people want to talk about it.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal asked for a record $32 million in salary arbitration on Thursday while the Detroit Tigers offered the left-hander $19 million.

 

Not a good look for the Tigers if they are sincerely trying to hold on to Skubal. Trying to paying him just $2 million more than what Frankie Montas got is not going to make him want to stick around.

[Edgy MD]

Yabbut arbitration guys don't have the leverage free-agency guys do.

The arbitrator will decide. I imagine that, if it goes to a hearing, that will have a lot to do with whether he is dealt. But, if the pattern of seemingly 90% of the cases holds, they will agree to spit the difference down the middle shortly before the hearing is scheduled to go down.

[MFS62]

Outfielder Max Kepler has been suspended 80 games after testing positive for the performance-enhancing drug Epitrenbolone, MLB announced on Friday.

The 32-year-old Kepler is currently a free agent after spending last season with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The clock on Kepler's 80-game suspension will begin if he signs a major league contract for the upcoming season. He is automatically ineligible for the 2026 postseason due to the ban.

Later

[MFS62]

Ryan Stanek has signed with St. Louis.

Later

[Gwreck]

But, if the pattern of seemingly 90% of the cases holds, they will agree to spit the difference down the middle shortly before the hearing is scheduled to go down.

 

This would seem (on its face) to be in the 10% of cases in which the player would benefit from going to the hearing. The Tigers’ number seems awfully low, and ripe for a situation in which the player gets everything he wanted by riding the hearing out.

[Frayed Knot]

Alex Bregman to ink a five year deal with the Cubs

[Gwreck]

At $175 million.

Obviously they’re all alike but this is the third major deal for a FA hitter this year and they were all for 5 years…

[ashie62]

That seems like a lot of money for Bregman

He's 32 and declining now imho

Tucker just got more expensive

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

With Bregman heading to the Cubs and the Red Sox needing an infielder, I wonder of the Mets can create a package around some of the infield depth and prospects to pry Jarren Duran?

[smg58]

I'm thinking the same thing. I'd be willing to part with Baty to get Duran or Wilyer Abreu. (Abreu is the best defensive corner outfielder in the league right now, and I bet he could handle center just fine if asked.)

[MFS62]

(MLB.COM)

Nolan Arenado, an 8-time All-Star with 10 Gold Glove Awards (and 6 Platinum Gloves) to his name, has been traded to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Minor League right-hander Jack Martinez. The 34-year-old Arenado agreed to waive his no-trade clause to close the deal.

Later

[MFS62]

From Metsmerized.com

The Boston Red Sox are signing left-hander Ranger Suárez, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Multiple reports say it’s a five-year, $130 million deal. There are no deferrals or opt outs in the deal.

Another one bites the dust.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

The Phils react to having Bo swiped out from under their nose by resigning JT Realmuto to a three year deal.

He turns 35 during ST and is coming off his first sub-100 OPS+ season (91) since his rookie campaign in 2015 with Miami (92).

During the nine year run in between [2016-2024 - 3 w/MIA, 6 w/PHI) he averaged 114 OPS+ and 132 G/yr (once you filter out 2020)

as a backstop and twice a Gold Glove winner.

What he's got going forward for 2026 thru 2028 is almost certainly going to be a significant cut below all that.

[Edgy MD]

I had half a notion that the Mets might reach out to him as a firstbaseman/backup catcher, but that was pre-Bichette.

The problem with moving catchers to first is that, by the time their defense or durability fade to the point where you want to take them from behind the plate, their offense has usually faded enough that it is only effective enough to justify by leaving them behind the plate.

[Frayed Knot]

Big trade involving the Rangers and Nationals as Texas packages FIVE prospects, including their 2025 1st round pick, in exchange for LHP MacKenzie Gore

Rangers receive: LHP MacKenzie Gore

Nationals receive: SS Gavin Fien (12th overall pick in 2025), RHP Alejandro Rosario (Top-50 prospect in pre-2025 lists), SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, OF Yeremy Cabrera (No. 16) and IB/OF Abimelec Ortiz

You may remember that Gore, once a 3rd overall draft pick (2017), was the big prize going to Washington in the deal which sent Juan Soto to San Diego

[The Hot Corner]

Texas giving up 5 prospects (Rangers' #2, #6, #12, #16, & #18) for 2 years of Gore (5-15 w/ 4.17 ERA & 1.353 WHIP) makes the Mets surrendering 2 prospects (Mets #3 & Mets #5) for 1 year of Peralta (17-6 w/ 2.70 ERA & 1.075 WHIP) & potentially 5 years of Myers (1-2 w/ 3.55 ERA & 1.362 WHIP) look like an absolute steal.

Makes me like the Peralta deal even more.

[The Hot Corner]

Reports have The Giants signing CF Harrison Bader (2 years/$20.5 mil.) Seems like a reasonably good pick up for the Giants who definitely needed to improve their outfield defense from last season. Bader should help immensely in that department.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Nothing against Harrison Bader, but I'm having a hard time readjusting my head to the latest scale of salaries. Bader doesn't seem like a guy who would make $10 million per year, but Kyle Tucker is making $60 million and Shohei Ohtani is making $70, so I guess $10 million is rather paltry.

If I had one year of Harrison Bader's salary I would have retired years ago.