Hall of Fame writers ballot Class of 2026

[Gwreck]

Interestingly, the advanced defensive metrics still rated Jones quite highly through 2007, his last gold glove season. He led the league in total zone runs above average for center fielders in 2006. He was +19 defensive runs saved in 2007 (compared to -6 in 2008, his first year after leaving Atlanta). For reference’s sake, Carlos Beltran was +13, +10, and +14 in his 2006-08 Mets prime.

I suspect that given how good Jones was in his prime, him initially losing a step was at the same time obvious but not so much a dropoff that he wasn’t still the best.

—-

As for the HOF case more broadly, the centerfield position is a curious one. There are 7 no-doubt HOFers at the top of the heap: Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle, Griffey, Snider, DiMaggio — plus Mike Trout, not yet eligible.

The JAWS metric (based on total and peak WAR scores) then says the next best — closely behind Snider and DiMaggio — are Beltran, Jones, and Kenny Lofton.

The rest of the 16 CFs in the Hall are much more scattered around, falling in most cases far short of Beltran, Jones, and Lofton by that JAWS metric:

There’s Larry Doby (with not-measured-in-stats-alone contributions); Oscar Charleston; Richie Ashburn; Puckett (probably not the strongest choice), Billy Hamilton (played in the 1800s) and then 10 other guys who you may not have even heard of, scattered among the Jim Edmonds and Cesar Cedeno and Dale Murphy and Johnny Damon and Brett Butlers in the tier of “you’d never seriously think of any of these guys as a Hall of Famer.”

Now, understanding and recognizing there’s no specific quota of HOFers per position, that Carlos Beltran (and also Jones) are among the 10 best to ever play the position does makes their case stronger to me.

[Edgy MD]

Obviously the statistical record is wanting, but I would call Oscar Charleston a no-doubter of the first degree.

More than a few reviews of Ty Cobb's game back in his own time praised him as "The White Oscar Charleston." That is just a rep implied by somebody else's handle, but it's a heck of a starting point. Bill James, in the second edition of his Historical Baseball Abstract, had him as top-ten all-time players.

(OE: There's obviously a lot more obscured the further back one goes, but with a gun to my head, I would probably take Slidin' Billy Hamilton's career over The Duke of Flatbush's.)

[Edgy MD]

Interestingly, the advanced defensive metrics still rated Jones quite highly through 2007, his last gold glove season. He led the league in total zone runs above average for center fielders in 2006. He was +19 defensive runs saved in 2007 (compared to -6 in 2008, his first year after leaving Atlanta). For reference’s sake, Carlos Beltran was +13, +10, and +14 in his 2006-08 Mets prime.

 

Also, thank you for bringing data here, while I just brought an impression. I won't say I stand corrected, because it is hard to call any 2007-era defensive data unimpeachable, but I certainly stand without foundational support, so I'm gonna have to cede that argument on the sustained level of his defense.

Therefore, even if my support for Charleston and Hamilton knock him out of the top 10 at his position in my view, he appears almost certainly in any reasonable top 15 and arguably in a lot of reasonable top dozens, so unless somebody finds some good PED evidence, the case for him is stronger than I offered.

[Edgy MD]

ALL-TIME TOP TEN CENTERFIELDERS IN MLB HISTORY

 

2. Willie Mays
4. Carlos Beltran


6. Duke Snider


8. Richie Ashburn


10. Tommie Agee


12. Mookie Wlson


14. Brandon Nimmo


16. Len Dykstra


18. Juan Lagares


20. Tsuyoshi Shinjo

 

Crack that list and we'll talk, Andruw.

[MFS62]

He might just beat out Don Hahn.

But not by much.

Later

[Gwreck]

Lance Johnson would like a word.

[whippoorwill]

I keep wondering who went to the Hall of Fame writers Ball

[Edgy MD]

Lance Johnson would like a word.

 

So would Mike Cameron. But you can't stop Shinjo.

[Cowtipper]

At 25% now, so here's another update.

Carlos Beltran: 76-77%

Andruw Jones: 72-73%

Chase Utley: 49-50%

Felix Hernandez: 41-42%

Alex Rodriguez: 41-42%

Andy Pettitte: 40-41%

Manny Ramirez: 37-38%

Bobby Abreu: 28-29%

Cole Hamels: 26-27%

Jimmy Rollins: 24-25%

Dustin Pedroia: 21-22%

Omar Vizquel: 18-19%

Mark Buehrle: 16-17%

David Wright: 15-16%

Francisco Rodriguez: 14-15%

Torii Hunter: 6-7%

Ryan Braun: 4-5%

Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2%

Hunter Pence: 1-2%

Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1%

Gio Gonzalez: 0-1%

Alex Gordon: 0-1%

Matt Kemp: 0-1%

Howie Kendrick: 0-1%

Nick Markakis: 0-1%

Daniel Murphy: 0-1%

Rick Porcello: 0-1%

Pettitte has solid momentum and might actually crack 60% by his final year.

[Gwreck]

DiComo didn’t have a vote as of 2025. He might have one this year (I believe it’s been 10 years since BBWAA membership was opened to MLB.com writers).

 

Indeed, DiComo voted for the first time this year:

Beltran, Hernandez, Pedroia, Pettitte, Utley, Wright.

https://www.threads.com/@anthonydicomo/post/DTA4EoyEQDQ

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

With more than 27 percent collected, Beltran is up to 88 percent and Jones to 82.9 percent. A little breathing room.

I have to imagine the last thing the Hall of Fame wants is an induction weekend with just Jeff Kent on the podium.

[Edgy MD]

I imagine not, but I tend to think inducting people just to get more wattage into the event is shortsighted.

With just a little imagination, a Hall-of-Fame weekend with no inductions at all could be wonderful.

[stevejrogers]

I imagine not, but I tend to think inducting people just to get more wattage into the event is shortsighted.

With just a little imagination, a Hall-of-Fame weekend with no inductions at all could be wonderful.

 

That actually is why the committees got overhauled!

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1719157-baseball-hall-of-fame-induction-ceremony-2013-complete-highlights-and-reaction

[stevejrogers]

http://placetobenation.com/2013-baseball-hall-of-fame-inductions/

[Edgy MD]

It was a rather soggy weekend in Upstate New York, and there was a discernible lack of living inductees to celebrate. But that did not deter the denizens of baseball’s mythical birthplace as they put on their annual celebration.

 

So, the Hall of Fame was lying when they wrote this?

[Edgy MD]

I mean, wouldn't we all be served better if the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (to use as a metaphor) spent a year, instead of elevating a previously disposable quickly rejected candidacy like Styx or Men at Work at their annual gathering, instead taking a look at why the art form they celebrate becomes more of a culturally inconsequential relic every year, and asking hard questions like, "Is Vampire Weekend really the best we can do?"?

I have no problem with a thoughtful and scholarly review of the cases for Willie Randolph or Willie McGee or Willie Wilson on occasion. I have a big problem with elevating them because things have gotten dry of late and we need living candidates to help us pretend things are peachy over the course of HoF weekend.

[MFS62]

If you build it, they will come.

Later

[Cowtipper]

30% in now.

Carlos Beltran: 75-76%

Andruw Jones: 73-74%

Chase Utley: 49-50%

Alex Rodriguez: 43-44%

Felix Hernandez: 42-43%

Andy Pettitte: 41-42%

Manny Ramirez: 38-39%

Cole Hamels: 28-29%

Bobby Abreu: 27-28%

Jimmy Rollins: 24-25%

Dustin Pedroia: 21-22%

Omar Vizquel: 18-19%

Mark Buehrle: 16-17%

Francisco Rodriguez: 14-15%

David Wright: 14-15%

Torii Hunter: 5-6%

Ryan Braun: 3-4%

Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2%

Hunter Pence: 1-2%

Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1%

Gio Gonzalez: 0-1%

Alex Gordon: 0-1%

Matt Kemp: 0-1%

Howie Kendrick: 0-1%

Nick Markakis: 0-1%

Daniel Murphy: 0-1%

Rick Porcello: 0-1%

I no longer think Carlos Beltran is a lock. I'd say he's 80/20 now. I'm bumping Andruw Jones to 48/52. I don't think Braun will get to 5%.

[MFS62]

Just noticed Ryan Braun is hovering around the 5% level.

I thought he might get more support. (OPS+ over 130)

But I looked at his numbers and saw a big drop-off at a relatively young age.

Was he thought to be juicing?

Later

[Edgy MD]

No, he is absolutely known and proven to have been juicing.

Beyond that, he launched a very Trump-like public campaign to personally attack and discredit the persons and lab behind the tests he failed.

[MFS62]

Thanks

Later

[Gwreck]

This is a good summary:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2024/07/26/a-timeline-of-events-surrounding-ryan-brauns-ped-suspension/73996442007/

[Cowtipper]

35% in now.

New projections:

Carlos Beltran: 75-76%

Andruw Jones: 73-74%

Chase Utley: 48-49%

Alex Rodriguez: 42-43%

Andy Pettitte: 41-42%

Felix Hernandez: 39-40%

Manny Ramirez: 38-49%

Cole Hamels: 28-29%

Bobby Abreu: 26-27%

Jimmy Rollins: 23-24%

Dustin Pedroia: 20-21%

Omar Vizquel: 18-19%

Mark Buehrle: 15-16%

Francisco Rodriguez: 13-14%

David Wright: 13-14%

Torii Hunter: 5-6%

Ryan Braun: 2-3%

Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2%

Hunter Pence: 1-2%

Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1%

Gio Gonzalez: 0-1%

Alex Gordon: 0-1%

Matt Kemp: 0-1%

Howie Kendrick: 0-1%

Nick Markakis: 0-1%

Daniel Murphy: 0-1%

Rick Porcello: 0-1%

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Cowtipper, where are you seeing this? Because the HOF Ballot Tracker is up to 37 percent and has Beltran at 89.2 percent and Jones at 82.8.

[Cowtipper]

Those are projections for where they'll end up, not where they are now. I should have specified. It's my own method and I usually end up within a few points of being right when all is said and done.

[Cowtipper]

Now past 45%, so here are some updated projections:

Carlos Beltran: 75-76%

Andruw Jones: 71-72%

Chase Utley: 48-49%

Andy Pettitte: 42-43%

Alex Rodriguez: 41-42%

Felix Hernandez: 40-41%

Manny Ramirez: 37-38%

Cole Hamels: 28-29%

Bobby Abreu: 25-26%

Jimmy Rollins: 23-24%

Dustin Pedroia: 20-21%

Omar Vizquel: 19-20%

Mark Buehrle: 16-17%

Francisco Rodriguez: 13-14%

David Wright: 13-14%

Torii Hunter: 6-7%

Ryan Braun: 2-3%

Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2%

Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1%

Gio Gonzalez: 0-1%

Alex Gordon: 0-1%

Matt Kemp: 0-1%

Howie Kendrick: 0-1%

Nick Markakis: 0-1%

Daniel Murphy: 0-1%

Hunter Pence: 0-1%

Rick Porcello: 0-1%

So, after thinking Beltran was a shoo-in based on how he had been trending and due to the weak ballot, I'd say he's hit a wall with the hold out voters who seem to really hold the cheating stuff against him. So I'm slashing his chances to 55% yes, 45% no. Andruw Jones is looking more and more like a no, too, so I'm putting him at 62% no, 38% yes. I think Torii Hunter will live to see another day, as he's seen a surge in new votes recently. I am really impressed by Andy Pettitte and previously said he might get to 60% by the time he was done on the ballot. In fact, he might even make a push to 65% if he's lucky. Ramirez's Final Year token boost in support is about as large as expected. I know he'd lost a lot of momentum, but I thought it was unusual that Vizquel was gaining absolutely NO new support this time around, especially considering he's on year 9. Well, he's gotten some new votes recently; it'll still be tough for him to make even 25% next year, his final year, based on how things are going. Voters REALLY don't like him now.

Edited January 17 by Cowtipper

[Edgy MD]

I appreciate you spelling "shoo-in" correctly. Miriam-Webster's approves.

[Cowtipper]

And now we're over 50%, so another set of projections. No major changes this time.

Carlos Beltran: 75-76%

Andruw Jones: 72-73%

Chase Utley: 49-50%

Andy Pettitte: 41-42%

Alex Rodriguez: 41-42%

Felix Hernandez: 40-41%

Manny Ramirez: 37-38%

Cole Hamels: 28-29%

Bobby Abreu: 26-27%

Jimmy Rollins: 23-24%

Dustin Pedroia: 20-21%

Omar Vizquel: 19-20%

Mark Buehrle: 16-17%

David Wright: 14-15%

Francisco Rodriguez: 13-14%

Torii Hunter: 6-7%

Ryan Braun: 2-3%

Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2%

Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1%

Gio Gonzalez: 0-1%

Alex Gordon: 0-1%

Matt Kemp: 0-1%

Howie Kendrick: 0-1%

Nick Markakis: 0-1%

Daniel Murphy: 0-1%

Hunter Pence: 0-1%

Rick Porcello: 0-1%

[Cowtipper]

55% in now. This might be the final update before the announcement, unless there's a surge in reported ballots between now and then. New projections:

Carlos Beltran: 75-76%

Andruw Jones: 73-74%

Chase Utley: 49-50%

Andy Pettitte: 42-43%

Felix Hernandez: 41-42%

Alex Rodriguez: 41-42%

Manny Ramirez: 37-38%

Cole Hamels: 28-29%

Bobby Abreu: 27-28%

Jimmy Rollins: 24-25%

Dustin Pedroia: 21-22%

Omar Vizquel: 19-20%

​Mark Buehrle: 16-17%

David Wright: 14-15%

Francisco Rodriguez: 13-14%

Torii Hunter: 7-8%

Ryan Braun: 2-3%

Edwin Encarnacion: 1-2%

Shin-Soo Choo: 0-1%

Gio Gonzalez: 0-1%

Alex Gordon: 0-1%

Matt Kemp: 0-1%

Howie Kendrick: 0-1%

Nick Markakis: 0-1%

Daniel Murphy: 0-1%

Hunter Pence: 0-1%

Rick Porcello: 0-1%

Since we're at 55% and Beltran is still at 75%, I'll raise his yes/no chances to 57/43. Since Jones is pretty close to 75% this far into the game now, I'm raising his chances to 48/52. In political talk, Beltran is a "lean yes" while Jones is a "tossup." The reason why I don't see Beltran sticking close to the 89% he is currently at is because his gained votes over 2025 just aren't high enough. The voters who don't make their ballots public can be persnickety and I think a LOT of them refuse to give him the nod (so soon, at least), because of the cheating. Same thing with Hernandez; he's gained A LOT over 2025, but I don't see him sticking at the 56% he is currently at because his gains over 2025 just aren't high enough. Right now he's on pace to gain 36%...that just doesn't seem feasible. If I did my math correctly, his totals gained votes RIGHT NOW would have to be over 80 for him to stick at the 56% he's currently at, but his real gain over 2025 is just slightly more than half that.

[Cowtipper]

It's Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones.