Should we talk about Tarik?

[Centerfield]

The buzz this week is that the Tigers and Skubal are $250M apart in contract discussions, leading everyone to speculate that the ace will be on the trading block this winter.

First, we should keep in mind that the story that broke this week was from Jon Heyman, which means it’s a Boras press release. Also, the gap was supposedly from talks held a year ago, so it’s not like this is a recent development.

The only real question, I guess, is why Boras would choose to leak it now. I don’t see that it benefits him to have his client traded. It’s not like he’ll sign an extension without testing free agency. It’s a bit puzzling.

Detroit has made the playoffs two years in a row. I’d guess they’d be inclined to keep Skubal and try to win a World Series. If they trade him, I’d guess they’d want a Kings ransom in return. And if that means giving up McLean or Benge, I’m out.

Building a package around Sproat or Tong, and adding one of Baty or Mauricio, then sure. I could get behind that. But I doubt that’s anywhere near enough.

Keep in mind, I suck at trades. I always lean toward keeping the guys I have. So maybe I’m not the best to lead this discussion.

[MFS62]

I've seen a story that said the Tigers want a package that includes five Mets prospects. The Tigers have been a contender the past few years, so I'm not sure they are lacking the cash to pay him.

But if they are, I think as it gets closer to them having to pay Tarik, the deal could get done with a package closer to what you describe.

Later

[Gwreck]

In fairness, Skubal trade talk began immediately upon his making some noncommittal remarks in the end-of-season press conference, long before the Heyman report.

Also, one has to wonder how exactly they could be $250M apart. That just stretches all credulity. Cole got $324M/9 years. Yamamoto got $325/12. Skubal couldn’t possibly think $500M is on the table, and even the Tigers couldn’t possibly be seriously offering something as low as, say…$100M over 3 years. I see no real way they could be “$250M apart.”

Now, as far as the Mets are concerned, Skubal is exactly what the Mets need, moreso than any other possible addition (unless the Pirates are trading Skenes). For one year, I certainly am trading Tong plus a hitter not named Benge or Williams.

But if the trade is conditioned on negotiating an extension with Skubal? Then sure, we can talk about a package of Sproat, Benge or Williams, Mauricio/Baty, and one more not named McLean.

[Gwreck]

And as for why it benefits Skubal to be traded before getting free agency: the potential for postseason heroics. Everyone knows Skubal’s worth a ton, but pitching a team to a championship is a really great way to get paid above-market price (see, e.g., Stephen Strasburg). And is Skubal on the Tigers or Skubal on the Mets more likely to win the 2026 World Series? I think it’s firmly the latter.

[metirish]

I basically agree with all of the above , would love to have him, Tigers want major league ready pieces plus prospects, and yeah the $250M sounds ridiculous, did they offer him like a few million or something? If I'm a Tigers fan I would be livid if my own team didn't make a good faith offer to him and I would want the best possible in any trade

[Frayed Knot]

I didn't realize he was only one season from FA-gency already; also turns 29 in a few weeks. Drafted in '18 (9th round - just like deGrom!), debuted in '20, then really hit his stride in '23 but only w/a partial season (15 starts / 80 innings). That he followed that up with a unanimous CY season and possibly a second one is what put him on the map and in this position.

One wouldn't think a Boras client would agree to a trade/extension on his FA-eve season. And, of course, that limits what a team would agree to give up for him.

From California, HS in Arizona, college in Seattle. Not sure if any of that will play a factor.

[Centerfield]

I was listening to the MLBTR podcast. Those guys are not very dynamic speakers, but they are pretty tuned into the latest rumblings, and they present things from a more neutral point of view, versus anything Mets-centric.

They seem to be of the mindset that Skubal isn't going anywhere. They speculate that Detroit won't get any offers that are more attractive to them than just letting it ride with one more year of Skubal and try to win the World Series. And they were fairly firm in their belief. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

According to them, Freddie Peralta is more likely to be moved.

[Edgy MD]

This thread title is chilling. It sounds like the beginning of a very uneasy conversation between two parents concerned that their kid might be a fledgling psychopath, and they have put the topic off for fear that talking about it makes it real, but the last art project the school showed them suggests they really can't shelve the subject any longer.

[smg58]

I'd be shocked if he gets traded. It would be one thing if the Tigers weren't serious playoff contenders, but I'm not sure how you sell slamming your window of contention shut a year early to your fans.

That being said, it's kind of like Johan Santana. He's one of the top two or three best pitchers in baseball, so why WOULDN'T you be interested if he's actually available?

[Lefty Specialist]

I think he'll stay with the Tigers. The floating of the $250 million difference and the trade speculation is pure Boras. Trade speculation gets the fan base riled up to keep 'their guy', which works to the agent's benefit. Detroit's a contender now, they don't need to rebuild.

That said, we'd have to strip the farm to get him. McLean would be first on their list. And needless to say, you don't trade for him unless you know you have an extension locked down. But personally I don't see him going anywhere.

[The Hot Corner]

It would be great to have Skubal, but I don't see it happening. First I doubt he is truly available, at least not until the trade deadline. Secondly, if he somehow is available, the cost in young talent to secure him would almost assuredly be prohibitive. Lastly, David Stearns historically has seemed averse to large, long-term commitments to pitchers. I doubt, he would be open to trading away a large chunk of the farm system he has so carefully built and maintained for any pitcher.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Former Mets general manager Steve Phillips predicted on “MLB Tonight” that the Mets would make this blockbuster trade to land Skubal:

Mets receive: LHP Tarik Skubal

Tigers receive: RHP Brandon Sproat, RHP Jonah Tong, INF Luisangel Acuña and INF Brett Baty

 

Of course, this is more of a suggestion than a "prediction", but what do we think of this deal? I think it's too much to give up without a negotiating window.

[MFS62]

I would do it if we could swap out Megill for one of those two youngsters and sign Tarik to an extension.

I'd keep Sproat and let Tong go.

But that's just me.

Later

[The Hot Corner]

I would love to see Skubal pitching for the Mets, but I can't see giving up that much young talent for a 1 year rental, no matter how good he is. If they could sign him to a 3-4 year extension, then I would probably do it. You can't expect to get that great a pitcher without expecting to surrender a fair amount of prospects/young talent.

Withouot being able to secure long-term as a part of that deal, then I would pass.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets have enough talent to be in a lofty position for 10 years. Consolidating that would be unwise. Consolidating it as described above would be indefensible. I still haven't gotten over the deadline fiasco.

Steve Phillips can say whatever he wants with very little accountability. Heck, he has a personal motivation to see the organization blow themselves up.

[Frayed Knot]

Keep in mind, also, that Steve Phillips is a renowned 'trade prospects' guy. He'll nearly always go for the now over the future. This isn't merely, he has said so in so many words.

One of the internet scribes (Keith Law?) was a lower-level employee for a club and, years later while working as a journo, he published that he was in on a conversation where Phillips was offering a minor leaguer named Wright in a trade proposal for someone. The deal obviously never happened and I forget the bait going the other way, but I do remember that we wouldn't have been a happy bunch had it occurred.

Later, when S.P. was in his talking head days (ESPN?), he advocated dealing freshly drafted 1/1 pick Steven Strasburg for a starting to fade Cliff Lee. Lee was already 31 by this point and, while he still had some juice left in him, his prime years were already in the rear view while Strasburg was just at the start of a ten year run* which would see him make 239 starts at a 3.17 ERA/1.08 WHIP pace. And the dumbest part about it all was that the Nats were nowhere near ready to compete in 2010 when Strasburg was making his ML debut right almost exactly one year after being drafted.

*The Nats got a great ten year run out of Strasburg. The only snag was that they paid him for about 18 years.

[Gwreck]

The Mets have enough talent to be in a lofty position for 10 years.

 

Could you be more specific as to your definition of “lofty position?”

[Edgy MD]

At the top of the standings.

[Edgy MD]

Keep in mind, also, that Steve Phillips is a renowned 'trade prospects' guy.

 

Absolutely. And that is an even easier game to play with someone else's future.

[Centerfield]

In Phillips' defense, I think his tenure as GM was during a time that it was much harder to make the playoffs. If a team had the makings of a solid core, and could amass a win total in the high 80s, it made sense to go all in and get yourself a low 90s team that could make the playoffs. Not to say you can justify all of his trades, but it made more sense at the time.

Now, with 6 teams making the playoffs (and more rounds consequently), I think it makes much more sense to simply try to make it every year, instead of pushing your chips in for one playoff run.

And I realize this doesn't justify the trade proposal he just made, but you know, old dog, new tricks.

I hate trades when it comes to the Mets. I'm notoriously bad at being objective and judging them. But to me, this feels like a lot to give up for Skubal. I also feel that this might be what it takes to get Skubal. Which I guess leaves me in the "it's not happening" camp. A lot has been made of the Mets needing to get an "ace" level pitcher. And lots of talking heads are going with the assumption that this is something Stearns and Cohen will be pursing. But I'm not so sure. They might, who knows, but Stearns doesn't seem the type to suddenly change his philosophy drastically following one disastrous season.

[Gwreck]

The Mets have enough talent to be in a lofty position for 10 years.

 

Could you be more specific as to your definition of “lofty position?”

 

At the top of the standings.

 

I think that’s a pretty optimistic look at the team currently and an even more optimistic assessment of the unproven players in the minors. The Lindor-Alonso-Nimmo-McNeil-Diaz core of the past 5 years has zero division titles and one once got to 90 wins…

[Edgy MD]

We are all unproven. No amount of patterns from the past can lay out the future with absolute certainty. We can only approach it.

But a consensus evaluation of a team having the best system in baseball, that comes after giving up much of their talent at the deadline, leaves me optimistic. Impatience and consolidation certainly strikes me as counterproductive.

With three top starting pitching prospects coming of age as we speak and three top outfield prospects right behind them — along with perhaps the most consistently productive hitter in the game tied up for 10 years — they are certainly the organization I would want.

When the team has failed in recent years (and definitely in recent months), I am far more concerned about the philosophy than the talent level. I don't know what to do about that, but I tend to think that philosophy can be over-turned a lot faster than talent at the organizational level.

[Centerfield]

Yeah, I don't think it's realistic to say that the Mets have set themselves up to be at the top of any standings considering they just finished with 83 wins and missed a 6 team playoff. I get that the farm system looks good, but lots of #1 ranked systems have failed to materialize into wins and certainly championships.

The good news is, you don't have to be at the top of the standings. You just need to be near the top. And I think the Mets are well-positioned to be in playoff chases for years with the core they have in place, and the young guys coming of age. Trading a bunch of them for Skubal certainly makes them more likely to make the playoffs this year, and provided he's healthy in October, probably improves their chances of advancing, arguably more than any other player available? Is that worth giving up a bunch of guys who can provide value for 5-6 years? Probably not.

It depends on the package, but considering the type of haul it would take to land Skubal, I'd probably think it was too much.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'd be more likely to be okay with the deal if it was Sproat OR Tong, but not both. We've seen how precious starting pitching depth can be.

[ashie62]

The Mets need an old fashioned ace whether by free agency or trade

I'd prefer that they spend cash rather than prospects

[Edgy MD]

Certainly any team could use such a pitcher, but there are no old-fashioned aces. At least, there aren't any pitchers that are deployed enough to carry the weight and add the value of an old-fashioned ace.

Skubal himself has yet to throw 200 innings in a season.

Why they pay these guys $40 million only to lift them in the fifth and sixth inning is boggling in the direction of my mind.

[metirish]

Look, it's Jim Bowden so there's that , but here are some trade proposals

Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has told teams he expects Tarik Skubal to pitch for Detroit in 2026, but that hasn’t stopped him from listening on the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

Detroit clearly prefers to retain Skubal and have already made him an extension offer, but it wasn’t even in the ballpark for what Skubal and his representative Scott Boras would be willing to accept. Skubal and his camp are now waiting for the Tigers to make another, much bigger offer. Surpassing Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s record-breaking 12-year, $325 million deal from the Dodgers would be a starting point, as Skubal and his team would be looking for even more than that.

Here's him on the Mets

New York Mets

Potential trade return: RHP Jonah Tong, RHP Brandon Sproat, INF/OF Jett Williams and INF/DH Ronny Mauricio

The Mets’ rotation really struggled last season, finishing 18th in MLB in starter’s ERA, and has several openings as the offseason begins. They need an ace and have the resources to sign Skubal long-term if they can trade for him.

They certainly can offer an enticing package, led by two of their top pitching prospects in Tong and Sproat. Tong was one of the talks of the minor leagues this season, breaking out with a 1.43 ERA and 179 strikeouts in 113 2/3 innings between Double A and Triple A. He struggled in his five starts in the major leagues but that didn’t dull his prospect shine much.

Sproat was the Mets’ 2023 second-round pick and he’s struck out 244 in 237 1/3 innings in his first two minor-league seasons, the second of which was spent in Triple A. He also made his major-league debut in September. Both Tong and Sproat offer upside and could slot immediately into the Tigers’ rotation.

Williams, the Mets’ 2022 first-round pick, had a big bounce-back season in 2025 after missing much of the 2024 season with injuries. He is a dynamic up-the-middle athlete who would give the Tigers another versatile player who can play anywhere but first base and catcher. Williams is only 5-foot-7 but he has hit for some power in the minors, has above-average speed and can work a walk.

Finally, the Mets could finish the deal with switch-hitter Ronny Mauricio. He’s never lived up to his immense potential but continues to show flashes thanks to his plus power and strong arm. His inability to get on-base and his high chase rates scream he needs more plate discipline, which could be helped by a change of scenery and new coaching voices.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6815157/2025/11/20/tarik-skubal-trade-scenarios-tigers-dodgers-yankees-mets-mariners-red-sox/

[Benjamin Grimm]

That seems like a lot. Especially given how the Mets struggled to get innings from their starting rotation, giving up two starters to get one doesn't seem to be a great idea. You're trading quantity for quality, and I can see the upside to that, but I also can't help but see the downside as well. Replace Sproat or Tong with a different position player in the deal and I'd like it better.

[metirish]

I agree , seems like a lot..... I know Ronnie struggled, but I feel he's got huge upside , but he needs to play daily either with the Mets or elsewhere

[Centerfield]

That package is way too much. (that's what she said about Fman and me)

All kidding aside, it definitely feels like we're giving up too much. From Detroit's side, they'll likely ask for McLean.

Which suggests this deal will never get done.