Starting Rotation Decisions

[Gwreck]

Lots of interesting stuff in the latest from Will Sammon of The Athletic:

http:// https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6593785/2025/09/02/new-york-mets-kodai-senga-decisions/

1. This weekend in Cincinnati is lining up as the focus for pitching: Peterson and Tong are being flipped, with Peterson going Friday (5 days rest) and Tong on Saturday (7 days rest).

2. McLean is being considered for the Sunday game (4 days rest), meaning neither Senga nor Manaea would pitch in Cincinnati.

3. Mets are considering that Senga consent to a minor league assignment. Based on ML service time, he has options — but his contract includes a provision that he cannot be assigned to the minors without his consent.

* * *

Not stated in the article is what will happen for the 4 game series in Philadelphia. Holmes and Peterson will certainly start two of those games, but the other two are up in the air: Manaea would obviously be rested for any of the games; Tong could pitch the Thursday finale on 4 days rest; Sproat could be called up; Megill is eligible to be recalled — but his recent start in Syracuse was crap).

Edited September 3, 2025 by Gwreck

[ashie62]

About what I would expect. You've got guys that aren't getting it done

Senga on rehab would allow him to get fixed, or not

Interesting times

[Edgy MD]

Gary is kind of getting fixated on this. Day after day, it's "What do you about Senga and Manaea?! They were supposed to be ... ."

We were all supposed to be something, but supposed to be is a lasso thrown about you. If they aren't getting it done, other folks will get opportunities to, just like everybody else. Hopefully someone will, and hopefully they will find the time and place and wherewithal to contribute to the cause again.

More important is that we are blessed to see a lot of talent coming to fruition (and so far, pretty sweetly) within a relatively small time frame.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can easily imagine the starters in the Wild Card Series being McLean, Peterson, and Tong.

If they should be fortunate enough to advance beyond that, maybe their fourth starter would be Holmes with Manaea on deck for a two- or three- inning stint? It seems that the best you can hope for is four or five from Holmes and two or three from Manaea. Maybe pairing the two of them would be a way to spare the bullpen from overuse.

Needless to say, if Senga and/or Manaea are able to get over their struggles the picture will be a lot brighter. But we're running out of time to go into October with much confidence in either of them.

[ashie62]

Let's see how Holmes looks today against the Tigers

[Edgy MD]

Needless to say, if Senga and/or Manaea are able to get over their struggles the picture will be a lot brighter. But we're running out of time to go into October with much confidence in either of them.

 

They may be running out of time, but we have plenty of options.

And when we are talking about the post-season, everybody sees their rotations trimmed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

That was my point. Senga and Manaea are running out of time, which is why we're looking at other options.

[MFS62]

And I can't fight this feeling anymore

I can't see what Manaea is even starting for

He can't get his ERA to 4

He overworks the bullpen for sure

And I can't fight this feeling anymore

I've forgotten what they signed Manaea for

And if I have to crawl upon the floor

Come crashing through his door, and tell Mendoza

I can't watch Manaea starting anymore.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

And not that he's anything to get excited about, but I keep forgetting that Tylor Megill is lurking out there too.

[Gwreck]

Megill was unable to complete the 5th inning last night for Syracuse. 4 IP, 6 hits/2 walks, 5 strikeouts, 3 earned runs. 79 pitches.

[Centerfield]

It's not just the rotation that's thin. The bullpen is looking a little lean too.

Diaz is your closer. Tyler Rogers has a much higher WHIP since coming to the Mets, but still reliable. Raley has been pretty good.

Beyond that, Reed Garrett is hurt, Gregory Soto has come back to earth. No one else is any good.

[Cowtipper]

It's not just the rotation that's thin. The bullpen is looking a little lean too.

Diaz is your closer. Tyler Rogers has a much higher WHIP since coming to the Mets, but still reliable. Raley has been pretty good.

Beyond that, Reed Garrett is hurt, Gregory Soto has come back to earth. No one else is any good.

 

Seems like the Stearns strategy of having a revolving door of Quadruple-A pitchers is completely stupid and doesn't work. Gee, whodathunkit.

[Gwreck]

Seems like the Stearns strategy of having a revolving door of Quadruple-A pitchers is completely stupid and doesn't work. Gee, whodathunkit.

 

None of Diaz, Rogers, Soto, Helsley, Raley, Garrett, or even Stanek are “Quadruple-A” pitchers.

I think there’s a reasonable case to be made that the Mets were unlucky and/or unwise in the trades they made for relievers. But no need to misrepresent the issue.

[Cowtipper]

Reed Garrett's smoke and mirrors. His ERA since June is over 6.

Ryne Stanek has an ERA over 5 and ERA+ below 80.

Gregory Soto barely has a career ERA+ over 100 and a career WHIP over 1.400.

Diaz is the only sure bet in the bunch, and even he's had issues in the past. Helsley's fortunes aren't looking promising. Raley is an aging late bloomer coming off an injury, so his immediate future is wishy washy.

The last time the Mets had bullpens I had any confidence in was 2021-2022. This year's version is so bad because it's been stocked by a rotating door of Quadruple-A guys ...

Garrett

Brazoban

Warren

Devenski

Herget

Hagenman

Waddell

Kranick

Castillo

Garcia

Danny Young

Garza

Lovelady

Carrillo

Adcock

All those one-game guys.

A stable team requires a stable of stable pitchers and the method of throwing poop at the wall to see what sticks for a few games doesn't work long term. The Mets were on pace for 100+ games earlier in the season and even though that wasn't sustainable, 90+ wins seemed like a good expectation. Now if they get to 85-87 wins they'll be lucky, in large part because of the pitching decisions they have made.

[Edgy MD]

Every team has guys who rotate between the majors and minors.

Every one.

[Frayed Knot]

The Mets were on pace for 100+ games earlier in the season and even though that wasn't sustainable, 90+ wins seemed like a good expectation. Now if they get to 85-87 wins they'll be lucky, in large part because of the pitching decisions they have made.

 

No, in large part because of the pitching results they've gotten. Those "one-game guys" haven't been the problem, they've merely been the patchwork filling in holes because the likes of Senga and Manaea, and Megill, and Montas, and Blackburn, and Minter, and Canning, and Nunez, and (more recently) Helsley, have all been injured and/or FAR below expectations. You're mixing up cause and effect here.

[smg58]

Manaea's FIP is exactly what it was last season (3.83), which tells me keep expectations realistic but don't panic.

Senga is a bigger concern, because he just hasn't been right. I think he and Helsley need a week or two off to clear their heads more than anything, but that would mean going down the stretch with essentially two fewer roster spots.

Holmes has been decent, but he hasn't forced the Mets to keep him in the rotation and we know he can be a high-end reliever. He still starts for now.

I've always seen Megill as a reliever long term, and I think that starts now.

And hopefully we'll have four good options going into October. I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Losing Griffin Canning had a far bigger impact than I thought it would.