The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[Fman99]

Ron Howard's OPS, to be fair, did not go down because his performance declined. He left TV to direct films, but he might well have stayed just as productive had he stuck to sitcom acting.

 

I mean, he carried Potsie and Ralph for years, give the guy some credit at least

[Centerfield]

Of the top 25 OPS leaders in 2025, 10 of those players were in the 31-35 age range FK mentions.

1. Aaron Judge (33)

3. George Springer (35)

5. Kyle Schwarber (33)

7. Ketel Marte (31)

9. Byron Buxton (31)

11. Freddie Freeman (35)

13. Jose Ramirez (32)

18. Matt Olson (31)

19. Yandy Diaz (33)

22. Bryce Harper (32)

So clearly, there is precedent for Pete staying productive for at least a few more years.

On the other hand, in this article chronicling the worst contracts on the books for 2025, we see a lot of guys in that age range.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10144883-ranking-the-10-worst-mlb-contracts-on-the-books-for-2025-season

Anthony Rendon. Fell off a cliff after age 29.

Nick Castellanos. Regressing since age 31

DJ Lemahieu. Aged suddenly after age 31

Andrew Benitendi. Somehow washed up at age 28

Trevor Story. Plummeted after age 28

Xander Bogaerts. Declined after age 30.

Javier Baez. Declined after age 28

Kris Bryant. Done after age 29

If you look at these names, it makes it seem like Pete may be on borrowed time already.

Interestingly, the article mentions these five guys, who all bounced back to varying degrees of success in 2025.

Christian Yelich

George Springer

Giancarlo Stanton

Trevor Story

Mike Trout

[The Hot Corner]

I could be wrong, but I don't believe Pete's game will age well. He makes his living off one basic skill, he hits the ball hard. He is an elite power hitter. He has also been very durable and reliable. He does not hit for average, he doesn't run well, he fields reasonable well, but with very limited range. His throwing is not a strength.

Unfortunately, his rather one dimensional skill set, makes him best suited to be a DH, particularly as he ages. That said, I would love to see the Mets resign Pete. Preferably to a 3 year deal, but I could see going 4 is the numbers aren't too crazy.

[Edgy MD]

Ron Howard's OPS, to be fair, did not go down because his performance declined. He left TV to direct films, but he might well have stayed just as productive had he stuck to sitcom acting.

 

I mean, he carried Potsie and Ralph for years, give the guy some credit at least

 

As long as the Mets don't sign Chachi as some sort of ******** replacement, I'm good either way.

[Centerfield]

Josh Naylor off the board. Goes back to Seattle on a five year deal.

I didn’t like Naylor as an option. And that takes Seattle out of the Pete sweepstakes. So I think good result all around.

Naylor is 2 years younger than Pete. So 5 year deal makes sense.

[Fman99]

Josh Naylor off the board. Goes back to Seattle on a five year deal.

I didn’t like Naylor as an option. And that takes Seattle out of the Pete sweepstakes. So I think good result all around.

Naylor is 2 years younger than Pete. So 5 year deal makes sense.

 

I think Pete wants his own five (or six?) year deal. He's a much more proven power hitter than Naylor, who's exceeded 20 HRs exactly once in his career.

[Frayed Knot]

He wanted that last year too but it doesn't seem like any team came close to going there.

Granted he's coming off a better season this time but is also a year older.

I thought last year that the Mets might go to four but were willing to let him walk if someone went five.

With another year under his belt it's possible the Mets would balk at four this time around.

Naylor? I just met her!

[Centerfield]

It's hard to know what, if anything, Naylor's deal means for Alonso. Especially since we don't know the terms yet.

Other than the position they play, Naylor is really different than Alonso. He's a different kind of hitter. Higher average, better contact, but much less power. A lesser hitter overall. But he's 2 and a half years younger, a better defender, and a better base stealer. My guess is that Naylor gets less AAV, more years. Pete gets more AAV, less years.

[Centerfield]

BTW, $92.5 million on the Naylor deal. So $18.5M AAV.

I think this doesn't really say anything about the market for Alonso.

[The Hot Corner]

BTW, $92.5 million on the Naylor deal. So $18.5M AAV.

I think this doesn't really say anything about the market for Alonso.

 

Well, we can likely eliminate the Mariners as suitors for Alanso's services.

[The Hot Corner]

BTW, $92.5 million on the Naylor deal. So $18.5M AAV.

I think this doesn't really say anything about the market for Alonso.

 

Well, we can likely eliminate the Mariners as suitors for Alonso's services.

[Gwreck]

BTW, $92.5 million on the Naylor deal. So $18.5M AAV.

I think this doesn't really say anything about the market for Alonso.

 

I do think there's something there with respect to the length of a deal Alonso can expect to receive. Anything more than 5 years is less likely with Naylor only getting 5 despite being younger. Of course, as you note, Alonso is likely to be looking for a higher AAV anyway. That said, there is probably some perceived benefit -- even if largely ephemeral -- to a team not committing itself for as many years. Giving Pete $150M over 5 years instead of 8 might be (mostly) a wash financially but the shorter deal still somehow more palatable.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm seeing reports that Pete is at the winter meetings in Orlando. He has meetings scheduled with the Orioles and the Red Sox.

[Edgy MD]

He would be a fool not to be there.

He works the concourse, gladhands some insiders, sits down with a reporter or two, gets a hello from Ollie Marmol, three articles get written suggesting the Cardinals are talking to him, and his price goes uppity up.

[Centerfield]

I'm seeing reports that Pete is at the winter meetings in Orlando. He has meetings scheduled with the Orioles and the Red Sox.

 

I’m guessing he has no market. That doesn’t sound like the type of thing someone does when he’s heavily pursued.

[Centerfield]

If we lose Pete tell Stearns to stay in Orlando.

[MFS62]

If we lose Pete tell Stearns to stay in Orlando.

 

Just what I thought.

Later