IGT 8/18/2024: MIA@NYM — The Certs Series Finale

[SteveCohenStan]

Frayed Knot wrote: That was actually one of the situations where bunting was a reasonable option. You want two runs there but you NEED one so a bunt puts both in scoring position, eliminates the traditional GiDP, and forces Miami to bring the infield in for at least one hitter and maybe two. If successful (and assuming the pre-determined outcome) Lindor's FO easily ties the game and puts the winning run 90 ft away. The problem was in the execution, not the decision to try.

https://tangotiger.net/files/re24_full.pnghttps://tangotiger.net/files/re24_full.png



1 hit ties the game and gets you 3 more outs. The Marlins are terrible, which skews it further.



Successful sac gets you about 6.5% more likely to score. Failing gets you -20%.



12 no outs has a run expectancy of 1.561, 23 1 out, 1.449.



You are LESS likely to score multiple runs by bunting there. You're slightly more likely to score 1, but the risk/reward calculus is pretty bad.

[kcmets]

Generally speaking, bifl...

[Frayed Knot]

=SteveCohenStan post_id=166859 time=1724027396 user_id=165]You're slightly more likely to score 1

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: So perusing the box score here, I see: - one run innings only - a HR, but a solo - 1-9 w/RiSP - out-hit the other side but didn't out-score them - a 3 walk inning for the winning run - a key late-inning GiDP to waste a leadoff runner as the tying run - a missed bunt so the following 400' fly ball couldn't produce a run - and two on w/no outs in the 9th but failed to score either much less both iow, business as usual

And I just discovered the 1st inning fly out into a DP.

That's not 'business as usual' but it's certainly an example of the team inventing new and unique ways to not score.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: =SteveCohenStan post_id=166859 time=1724027396 user_id=165]You're slightly more likely to score 1

Scoring one is the most important factor here so that's not an insignificant consideration.

And while the averages cited for 12 w/0 outs vs 23 w/one are accurate they're also generic (and small) so don't, for instance, take a pulled in

infield into consideration or that the Mets top two hitters were due up.



Bunting there wasn't the only move but it wasn't an unreasonable one especially with Lindor/Vientos coming up afterward.

Poor execution on the bunt coupled with a 400+ foot out foiled the strategy, not merely the decision itself.

[Edgy MD]

Really, not too many of the buttons Mendoza pushed connected today. Starting Taylor over Bader didn't come through. Starting Marte over McNeil and Winker over Martinez more or less landed OK, as they each got a hit, but then pinch-hitting Martinez against a lefty later led Skip Schumaker to immediately switch to a righty, and Martinez to instantly ground into a DP.



Not learning the beautiful lesson of yesterday, he pulled his starter after 92 pitches, the Marlins tied the game against the first reliever, and pulled ahead against the second.



But they did have their pickoff game working, so there's that. But it really comes down to not using the most reliable relievers in the highest leverage spot. The rest is mostly defensible.



Oh, yeah. He left Nimmo in to hit after he seemed to re-injure his shoulder.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Also with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and the Mets trailing with the tying and winning runs on base, Mendoza let Vientos hit instead of pinch-hitting for him. Bad move. Vientos struck out. Why didn't Mendoza know that Vientos would strike out? At least Vientos didn't swing at the first pitch, taking it for a called strike instead. That helped. Always take the first pitch when trailing in the late innings.

[Frayed Knot]

One more thing on the run expectancy numbers:

12 no outs has a run expectancy of 1.561, 23 1 out, 1.449.

Remember that those figures are averages and one reason why the NON-bunt route is higher is that by not ceding an out (bunting) you increase the chances of a 'Big' inning [three, four, five runs or more] so those numbers are baked into the higher figure. But runs #3 and beyond are meaningless to the team in this particular case so if those three-and-up numbers were taken out of the calculations then the already low to begin with edge in not bunting (0.112 avg R) would be smaller still and would probably favor the sac bunt.

[Benjamin Grimm]

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/images/schaefer25.jpg>



http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/index.phpCast your vote!

[Fman99]

Had an afternoon gig and missed this game in its entirety. Which is maybe a good thing.

[SteveCohenStan]

Frayed Knot wrote: One more thing on the run expectancy numbers: 12 no outs has a run expectancy of 1.561, 23 1 out, 1.449. Remember that those figures are averages and one reason why the NON-bunt route is higher is that by not ceding an out (bunting) you increase the chances of a 'Big' inning [three, four, five runs or more] so those numbers are baked into the higher figure. But runs #3 and beyond are meaningless to the team in this particular case so if those three-and-up numbers were taken out of the calculations then the already low to begin with edge in not bunting (0.112 avg R) would be smaller still and would probably favor the sac bunt.

of course their averages. you can argue your way into giving up an out all you want because "This situation is different" but you can do that he other way. That it's the 9th inning matters, you don't have another shot. That it's the Marlins skews it in favor of hitting, because they suck. Home field advantage exists, if minutely. McNeil is a low K guy, meaning the chances of advancing the runners on a BIP are higher than average.



The averages also by definition ONLY reflect the successful bunt. 6.5% of scoring at least 1 run is wiped out by the chance of failing to do it. It's not anywhere near 100%. I believe it's closer to 2/3rds. McNeil has 1 this year. GIDP 5/53. Does that mean he's even less likely than 2/3rds to get it down? Does it depend on the pitcher? (Faucher is mostly a fastball guy, but sinkers.)



actually I found the leaderboard I wanted. the league average Sacrifice% is 59.1%. The Mets are at 44.4%. 8/18. They're 24.1% of making a productive out (which includes sacrifices). This all suggests trying to actually get a hit would be the play. Even going back pre-Moneyball, the league average in 2000 was 78.7%. 79.1% in 1980. 71.5% in 1990.



The RE24 matrix for those years was even lower than 6.5% to score a run. But even at the most extreme, that's 80% chance to get a 6.5% boost in scoring a run.



even just the raw percentage that in three tries you get one more guy on in three tries is probably like 70%.



It's not THAT bad a move, but it is a bad move to bunt. Mets are only bunting about league average, which isn't terrible, but it's hardly the only criticism of Mendoza and the Mets and isn't really a vote of confidence for smart organization strategy.

[Edgy MD]

=SteveCohenStan post_id=166890 time=1724073343 user_id=165]McNeil is a low K guy, meaning the chances of advancing the runners on a BIP are higher than average.

[Frayed Knot]

The Mets have 8 successful sac bunts this season which is only slightly more than half the league avg (13.7) and only Philly (7) has fewer,

so I don't think bunting is part of any kind of organizational strategy and if it were, believe me, I'd join you in the criticism.



The bifl comment by KC above stands for 'Bunting is for Losers' and it's a longtime mantra on this board harkening back to the Willie Randolph

Jerry Manual days when the knee-jerk reaction to getting leadoff runners on was to sac bunt because that was they way it was played in their

day, particularly if you were a skinny infielder.



I'm just saying that for all the reasons previous listed I think the bunt strategy a was defendable one rather than a hanging offense.

And had JMcN hit into a GiDP and killed any comeback that way I wouldn't be calling for Mendoza's head for not bunting.

Two Ks sandwiched around a 400 ft out just wasn't enough and it's not like this team hasn't found a myriad of ways NOT to score

starting with two on and none out all season long.

[Edgy MD]

One play I've never seen, that I've always hoped for, has been a two-base sacrifice fly. I was kind of hoping to see it there when Pache caught Lindor's deep drive with his back to the infield, but they ended up getting the ball in quickly.

[Frayed Knot]

One 8-9-4-2 DP was enough for one game.

[Cowtipper]

Catching up on some games.



This was a well-played affair, despite the Mets losing. Garrett continues to underwhelm; he started off the year 5-0 and now he's 7-5. Since he was last 5-0 (May 19), his ERA is 8.10 and his WHIP is 1.950 in 22 appearances. He always has this overwhelmed, derp look on his face.



Blackburn's been a solid hurler so far.