SteveCohenStan

for me it's when they go on innings-long rants about "players these days" doing things like shifting, or one-knee down catching, even though all the data and even the anecdotal "all the teams are doing it, maybe they know something you don't?" evidence suggest they should probably stop tilting at windmills.

less Keith is good. The Kiner roll is all he's good for now, blather on a good story for a while, then shut up.

parking will suck...by design. "Hmm, should I sit in this mess or kill an hour or two in the casino?"

Frayed Knot wrote: One more thing on the run expectancy numbers: 12 no outs has a run expectancy of 1.561, 23 1 out, 1.449. Remember that those figures are averages and one reason why the NON-bunt route is higher is that by not ceding an out (bunting) you increase the chances of a 'Big' inning [three, four, five runs or more] so those numbers are baked into the higher figure. But runs #3 and beyond are meaningless to the team in this particular case so if those three-and-up numbers were taken out of the calculations then the already low to begin with edge in not bunting (0.112 avg R) would be smaller still and would probably favor the sac bunt. of course their averages. you can argue your way into giving up an out all you want because "This situation is different" but you can do that he other way. That it's the 9th inning matters, you don't have another shot. That it's the Marlins skews it in favor of hitting, because they suck. Home field advantage exists, if minutely. McNeil is a low K guy, meaning the chances of advancing the runners on a BIP are higher than average. The averages also by definition ONLY reflect the successful bunt. 6.5% of scoring at least 1 run is wiped out by the chance of failing to do it. It's not anywhere near 100%. I believe it's closer to 2/3rds. McNeil has 1 this year. GIDP 5/53. Does that mean he's even less likely than 2/3rds to get it down? Does it depend on the pitcher? (Faucher is mostly a fastball guy, but sinkers.) actually I found the leaderboard I wanted. the league average Sacrifice% is 59.1%. The Mets are at 44.4%. 8/18. They're 24.1% of making a productive out (which includes sacrifices). This all suggests trying to actually get a hit would be the play. Even going back pre-Moneyball, the league average in 2000 was 78.7%. 79.1% in 1980. 71.5% in 1990. The RE24 matrix for those years was even lower than 6.5% to score a run. But even at the most extreme, that's 80% chance to get a 6.5% boost in scoring a run. even just the raw percentage that in three tries you get one more guy on in three tries is probably like 70%. It's not THAT bad a move, but it is a bad move to bunt. Mets are only bunting about league average, which isn't terrible, but it's hardly the only criticism of Mendoza and the Mets and isn't really a vote of confidence for smart organization strategy.

Frayed Knot wrote: That was actually one of the situations where bunting was a reasonable option. You want two runs there but you NEED one so a bunt puts both in scoring position, eliminates the traditional GiDP, and forces Miami to bring the infield in for at least one hitter and maybe two. If successful (and assuming the pre-determined outcome) Lindor's FO easily ties the game and puts the winning run 90 ft away. The problem was in the execution, not the decision to try. https://tangotiger.net/files/re24_full.pnghttps://tangotiger.net/files/re24_full.png 1 hit ties the game and gets you 3 more outs. The Marlins are terrible, which skews it further. Successful sac gets you about 6.5% more likely to score. Failing gets you -20%. 12 no outs has a run expectancy of 1.561, 23 1 out, 1.449. You are LESS likely to score multiple runs by bunting there. You're slightly more likely to score 1, but the risk/reward calculus is pretty bad.

Edgy MD wrote: =SteveCohenStan post_id=166844 time=1724012159 user_id=165] Mendoza is shit isn't he. No, I don't think so. I hate that he used Brazobán, but I was just as frustrated by Showalter making similar moves. I think this sort of thing goes higher up.

Mendoza is shit isn't he.

=whippoorwill post_id=166691 time=1723903050 user_id=79] I might be the only one here that follows Little League World Series but I highly recommend it. Baseball as it ought to be.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=165952 time=1723400659 user_id=68] They should tear down the Ebbets Field Housing project, and airlift Citi Field into the suddenly vacated space. Voila! The Brooklyn Dodger Classic. Hilda will be there. And the Sym-Phony will be performing at the Rotunda. Plus Steve Cohen gets to build a brand new stadium to replace this idiotic philistinian stadium of mismatched silly parts like a bridge that has nothing to do with nothing and a gerryrigged scoreboard crammed in like an overstuffed sausage that hadda replace the absolute without a doubt ugliest scoreboard ever imagined.

What do we think Vic Carapazza's wager was? Probably something involving Diaz not getting a save would seem the most likely, but maybe it was some long parlay.

I've always been partial to Bauer in this matter. I think Bauer's conduct was vile and Bauer himself is a terribly flawed individual. Myself, I can't fathom striking a woman in the face even though she consented or asked to be punched in the face. Personally, I would have tremendous difficulty punching someone in the face even if I was legally justified to do so in self-defense. But Bauer's conduct was totally legal and it was plainly obvious from the get-go that Bauer was being set up or scammed by a scorned woman who decided to try and exploit Bauer's considerably deep pockets. She didn't plan to scam him initially and so by the time she did decide to perpetuate her fraud, she was already stuck with bad facts and evidence that couldn't logically be explained away and would eventually undermine her scam. But Bauer's conduct, as reprehensible as it would appear to be, was totally legal and had occurred in a private relationship in the privacy of his own residence, behind closed doors. jesus. believe women. at least read this thread. [TWEET]https://x.com/lindseyhillll/status/1804191754469675024https://x.com/lindseyhillll/status/1804191754469675024[/TWEET] https://x.com/lindseyhillll/status/1804191754469675024https://x.com/lindseyhillll/status/1804191754469675024 Bill James needs to shut up with his nonsense too. But go ahead, let the douchebag try, like Lindsey details here, he'll get himself thrown in jail by making the additional evidence public doing that.