Early Fire Sale Chatter

[Edgy MD]

As I wrote (and crossed out), there will nonetheless probably be somebody (like the Yankees) who will be looking to upgrade at first.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: As I wrote (and crossed out), there will nonetheless probably be somebody (like the Yankees) who will be looking to upgrade at first.

I would imagine. That's my point.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It would be very ballsy to trade Alonso to the Yankees. That doesn't mean it won't happen; we just don't know yet if Cohen and Stearns are quite that ballsy.



(As we've seen in that college photo in the other thread, Alonso certainly is.)

[nymr83]

Yeah, it is pretty low risk to deal him to a team unlikely to be able to afford to re-sign him, but risking the firestorm of him signing an extension in the Bronx? That would be BALLSY

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: As I wrote (and crossed out), there will nonetheless probably be somebody (like the Yankees) who will be looking to upgrade at first.

The Yanx have (at least temporarily) benched the struggling Anthony Rizzo. The recently returned DJ LeMahieu (you have to hit the Caps key

four times to type that name!!) has been playing 1st the last few days but he's been hurt and/or non-productive himself over much of the last

season so it's not like he's a sure thing.

[Edgy MD]

But their deployment of him there helps underscore part of the point I'm making. You can bend almost anyone into a firstbaseman, but you have a lot more trouble bending a firstbaseman into something else, and that tips the market at that position in favor of the buying teams.



Also, don't trade anybody. Just go out and whoop the Marlins.

[Gwreck]

Edgy MD wrote: Also, don't trade anybody. Just go out and whoop the Marlins.

In the next 35 games (through July 22) the Mets have only two games against a team that currently has a winning record (Yankees).



If they can go 22-13 (or better) in those next 35 games, then selling might be off the table. That would bring them right up to .500.

[Edgy MD]

Let's go, Mets!

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: Also, don't trade anybody. Just go out and whoop the Marlins. In the next 35 games (through July 22) the Mets have only two games against a team that currently has a winning record (Yankees). If they can go 22-13 (or better) in those next 35 games, then selling might be off the table. That would bring them right up to .500.

I also remember someone here complaining during the losing stretch a few weeks back that we hadn't yet played the Marlins.

Well now we have (1-3).

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Martino has an interesting column about what we'd get in trading blitz for our best pieces. Nutshell - probably not that much.



https://sny.tv/articles/trade-deadline-notes-mets-luis-severino-pete-alonso-edwin-diaz-jd-martinezhttps://sny.tv/articles/trade-deadline-notes-mets-luis-severino-pete-alonso-edwin-diaz-jd-martinez

The consensus among rival executives and evaluators is that the Mets' most valuable trade chip, by far, is their starting pitcher on Thursday, Luis Severino. “Severino gets you an average prospect,” said one high-ranking American League executive.

Of the players on expiring contracts who the Mets could sell, Severino stands out in his appeal to other teams. Others, like Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino and J.D. Martinez are expected to fetch only modest returns. Alonso's case divides baseball folks. Many note that the rental market for right-handed sluggers is not usually robust, hence the expectation of a smaller return for Martinez. “For a rental, you don't get much of anything for Alonso unless there is a bidding war,” said one evaluator. Said another veteran executive, “Alonso maybe gets you someone's 5-10 rated prospect. Not someone who is a stud.” “I don't agree with that,” a high-ranking A.L. executive said. “Pete could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. He is better than Arraez [Luis Arraez, for whom Miami acquired reliever Woo-Suk Go and three prospects from an aggressive Padres team].” If the first two quotes are correct, it would make more sense for the Mets to hold Alonso until he reaches free agency at the end of the season. Why put a fan base through a traumatic trade just to receive a minor leaguer who might or might not turn into a big leaguer? But if the third executive is correct, and teams view Alonso as a difference-maker, the Mets will have to consider it. It will be up to president of baseball operations David Stearns and his group to gauge his value and proceed accordingly.

As of this morning, the Mets are 3 games back for the last wildcard - with five teams ahead of them. Of the teams that are in, the Giants are 34-35 and the Cardinals are 33-34. If the team can put together a modest run and get back to .500, it can be right in the middle of this. The team is seven games under this morning. Possible? Some of the teams ahead of the Mets don't have a history of being buyers, like the Pirates. Is it is better to stay in the hunt or sell for what executives think would be an unimpressive haul?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I definitely prefer them not to sell.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I definitely prefer them not to sell.

I'm with you!

[Centerfield]

I'm with you being with him!



Obviously we have to wait and see on the fruits from last summer, but I feel like we've seen a few sell-offs in recent history and don't really have much of anything to show for any of them. Maybe Drew Smith.



If it's a soft market, just keep him and take the compensation if he walks.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I do have hopes for the guys they got for Scherzer and Verlander. But the vibe I'm getting is that the Mets may get a blue-chip prospect for Severino, but not likely for anyone else. So keep these guys. Let's win as many games as possible and hope things fall into place.

[Gwreck]

=Centerfield post_id=159157 time=1718386875 user_id=65]I feel like we've seen a few sell-offs in recent history and don't really have much of anything to show for any of them. Maybe Drew Smith.

[Benjamin Grimm]

In 2017, the Mets traded five veteran players and got back one who would turn out to provide any measurable value:



July 27, 2017

New York Mets traded Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays for Drew Smith.



July 31, 2017

New York Mets traded Addison Reed to the Boston Red Sox for Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista and Stephen Nogosek.



August 9, 2017

New York Mets traded Jay Bruce to the Cleveland Indians for Ryder Ryan.



August 12, 2017

New York Mets traded Neil Walker to the Milwaukee Brewers for Eric Hanhold.



August 19, 2017

New York Mets traded Curtis Granderson to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Jacob Rhame.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets gained on the Nats, the Pirates, and Cubs — the three teams immediately in front of them in the standings — last night.



They pulled within a game and a half of the first two and two games of the last.



Destiny is within grasp. It's for the Mets to grab. It's for the rest of us to show them how.

[Gwreck]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: In 2017, the Mets traded five veteran players and got back one who would turn out to provide any measurable value

This is what happens when you have players on expiring contracts who are on the wrong side of 30. Also, they perhaps waited too long to trade some of those players.

[Benjamin Grimm]

=Gwreck post_id=159167 time=1718390533 user_id=56]
This is what happens when you have players on expiring contracts who are on the wrong side of 30.

[Edgy MD]

Trading and Scherzer and Verlander was very much the opposite of salary relief. They ate a lot of that salary and still have a lot of munching to do.

[Edgy MD]

Oh, and hey! The Tommy Pham deal brought in wondrous teenage infielder Jeremy Rodriguez, who is the walking, talking embodiment of awesome.



At only 17, he is currently to The Florida Complex League what https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig007jerVlassic is to pickles. Like, when he goes to the ballpark, Robin Yount, George Brett, and Cal Ripken all fight over who gets to carry his bags and shine his shoes.

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's what I was saying. (I may not have made it clear.) The Scherzer/Verlander deals were about getting prospects. The trades of guys like Walker and Granderson in 2017 were about salary relief.

[Edgy MD]

Oh, you were clear. I was just doubling down on your point.



Hey, maybe that's how we alienated Met Fairy.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Hey, maybe that's how we alienated Met Fairy.

I think she left because she didn't like my response to her post about how Michael Conforto was going to fully recover from his serious shoulder injury and surgery all because her husband, who probably doesn't have to lift anything heavier than a pencil, recovered from the same injury.



If that's true, and I hope it's not ... whatever.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Hey, maybe that's how we alienated Met Fairy. I think she left because she didn't like my response to her post about how Michael Conforto was going to fully recover from his serious shoulder injury and surgery all because her husband, who probably doesn't have to lift anything heavier than a pencil, recovered from the same injury. If that's true, and I hope it's not ... whatever.

This is so Rashomony. Everybody thinks they're to blame for her departure.

[Edgy MD]

Rashomony is a good word. It kind of sounds like a name for what Toshiro Mifune had to pay his ex-wife for support every month.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: Rashomony is a good word. It kind of sounds like a name for what Toshiro Mifune had to pay his ex-wife for support every month.

Bring back the BOC if for no other reason than that line.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Rashomony is a good word. It kind of sounds like a name for what Toshiro Mifune had to pay his ex-wife for support every month.

[media=youtube]oShTJ90fC34[/media]

[batmagadanleadoff]

Will Sammon, writing for The Athletic, opines that it will be hard to predict what the Mets might get in return for slugger Pete Alonso. Even though Alonso will be a free agent right after this season and thus a half-year rental, and he's guaranteed $10M for the last half of the season, making him an expensive get for many small market teams, and he's closing in on 30 at a position that historically, ages terribly, despite all of that, it will be a buyer's market because 40% of the teams make the playoffs and so the majority of all teams will be buyers at the deadline and not sellers.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Correction:

Will Sammon, writing for The Athletic, opines that it will be hard to predict what the Mets might get in return for slugger Pete Alonso. Even though Alonso will be a free agent right after this season and thus a half-year rental, and he's guaranteed $10M for the last half of the season, making him an expensive get for many small market teams, and he's closing in on 30 at a position that historically, ages terribly, despite all of that, it will be a [CROSSOUT]buyer's[/CROSSOUT] seller's market because 40% of the teams make the playoffs and so the majority of all teams will be buyers at the deadline and not sellers.