WBC 2023--We'll Be Seeing You Later

[A Boy Named Seo]

Just fantastic baseball. Congrats Japan. What an ending.

[Edgy MD]

Terrific slider by Ohtani to end it.

[metsmarathon]

It's crazy how the dream matchup was what it ended on.

[Fman99]

I meant to watch some WBC but did not. I can't really say why. I guess I just didn't care that much.

[metirish]

=Fman99 post_id=120360 time=1679500523 user_id=86]
I meant to watch some WBC but did not. I can't really say why. I guess I just didn't care that much.

[nymr83]

So the whole damn thing ended with Ohtani striking out Trout. wow. Can't really ask for much more than that in March.



Meanwhile, while US fans are apparently indifferent to the WBC, Japan is getting better television ratings than we see here domestically for the super bowl. THE SUPER BOWL!

[metirish]

Apparently close to 98% of TVs were tuned into the game in Japan, I believe it, when Ireland made its first World Cup it would have been similar (1990)

[MFS62]

What got me was Team USA (down 3-2 in the top 9th last night) not trying to move the runner over (steal or hit and run)after the leadoff batter walked. Then you get two shots to tie it up. They wouldn't expect a high salaried All Star like Betts to do something like that. Instead, Betts hits into a DP and Trout strikes out. Japan wins the title. Don't they teach fundies any more?



Later

[A Boy Named Seo]

There's an argument to be made for bunting there, for sure, but even with Betts, Trout and Goldy coming up, getting a run off of Ohtani is very hard, even more so if you give him an out. With Bobby Witt Jr pinch-running for McNeil, you had elite speed at first in a dude who should score on an extra base hit, and a parade of XBH guys coming up. Good recipe. Throw in the fact that Betts also has great speed and hit into only 8 double plays last year (Vladdy led the majors with 26). Well the bunt seems like less of a necessity.



With like a 100 years or so of data, we know it's statistically slightly less likely that that a team will get a run across with a runner at second and one out than a runner at first with no outs. So I think DeRosa made the right call situationally and statistically. Obviously it didn't work and credit to Shohei and the defense for rolling over a very unlikely DP.



Here's a lil graphic using Tom Tango's work:



https://danblewett.com//wp-content/uploads/2017/08/1st-to-second-300x283.png

>



Here's the article that came from (https://danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/https://danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/) and another that says pretty much the same thing but is interesting anyway.



https://www.columbian.com/news/2012/jun/16/bunting-in-baseball-can-be-downright-medieval/https://www.columbian.com/news/2012/jun/16/bunting-in-baseball-can-be-downright-medieval/



Edit: And you said "steal or hit and run" not bunt. Yeah that would've been fun to see for sure.

[MFS62]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Edit: And you said "steal or hit and run" not bunt. Yeah that would've been fun to see for sure.

And I said those options because many Japanese pitchers have slow or deliberate deliveries (I'm not sure

if Shohei's is significant enough) and that may have been the edge a speedy runner needed to improve his chances on a steal or making it to third on a hit and run.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I tend to feel that the extension of the don't-make-outs logic is don't-hit-into-double-plays. Bunting, hit-and-running, stealing (among other plays) are ways to avoid that.



Even getting caught stealing and then making an out at the plate forces them to get you twice. The two outs on one play is murder. Avoiding that like the plague is a good offensive philosophy.

[nymr83]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: https://danblewett.com//wp-content/uploads/2017/08/1st-to-second-300x283.png >

I generally hate bunting, but there is a difference between "run expectancy" and "% chance to tie the game" - is it possible that run expectancy is higher with [runner on 1st, 0 outs] than it is with [runner on 2nd, 1 out] because the possibility of a big inning is so much higher, BUT the bunt has a higher probability of scoring one run?



I'm guessing not. Just posing the question.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, not all runs are created equal. And a tying run in the ninth is more unequal than most.

[Frayed Knot]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: ... but there is a difference between "run expectancy" and "% chance to tie the game" - is it possible that run expectancy is higher with [runner on 1st, 0 outs] than it is with [runner on 2nd, 1 out] because the possibility of a big inning is so much higher, BUT the bunt has a higher probability of scoring one run?

Yes there's a difference in 'Run Expectancy' vs odds of scoring, mainly that one is an average and the other a percentage.

Run Expectancy factors in not just the times scoring once or twice but the chances of putting up a 10-spot are factored in as well.

What we want here is the odds of scoring at least a single run or, it's corollary, the odds of NOT getting bagel-ed in that inning.



The numbers I remember is that the strategy of NOT bunting is still going to be favored but not by as much. iow, the run expectation gap is bigger because more big innings are erased by

ceding an out but the odds of scoring 'one and only one' are now closer to the point where how you play it is more likely to be affected by who's up in the inning.

In this case I'm not asking Mookie Betts to intentionally make an out, especially not with his low GiDP odds and with Goldschmidt & Trout behind him so I'm backing DeRosa here.

If it's 7-8-9 coming up with less speed and lower BA's then I might favor the bunt in this particular case.

[Frayed Knot]

Annnnnnnd, we should point out, that this wasn't one run to WIN the game merely to extend it so a second (or third or fourth) run held importance as well.

Then throw in that the USA were NOT the home team so scoring one but only one run STILL would have left them with less than 50/50 odds of winning the game.



Advantage: Not Bunting (or H & R)

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: A Boy Named Seo wrote: ... but there is a difference between "run expectancy" and "% chance to tie the game" - is it possible that run expectancy is higher with [runner on 1st, 0 outs] than it is with [runner on 2nd, 1 out] because the possibility of a big inning is so much higher, BUT the bunt has a higher probability of scoring one run? I wrote that, not ABNS - not that i care but he may not like my words in his mouth

Edgy MD Mar 22 2023 11:19 PM Re: WBC 2023--We'll Be Seeing You Later

Frayed Knot wrote: Annnnnnnd, we should point out, that this wasn't one run to WIN the game merely to extend it so a second (or third or fourth) run held importance as well. Then throw in that the USA were NOT the home team so scoring one but only one run STILL would have left them with less than 50/50 odds of winning the game. Advantage: Not Bunting (or H & R) Well, let's see that win expectancy chart. Lastly, how do I get this gig? Like, seriously. Also, was the infield in or back?

A Boy Named Seo Mar 28 2023 09:45 AM Re: WBC 2023--We'll Be Seeing You Later

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Ben Verlander also has a crush on my crush so now I'm just not that into him https://twitter.com/BenVerlander/status/1633325379237855238 So, my first WBC crush has apparently defected from Cuba, terminated his contract in NPB and wants to sign with an MLB team. He worked as a reliever with the Dragons. His stuff was good. He's about to turn 26 and in 3 seasons in Japan, he pitched to a 3.03 ERA and 9.7 K/9 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig000yarbaseball-ref). Of all the teams who could use an experienced international reliver with who throws mid-to-high 90s with high spin rate wicked breaking balls NOW!!!!, I'd say it's your New York Mets. Shall I call Steve? news link --> https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-who-yariel-rodriguez-star-reliever-chunichi-dragons-set-become-second-cuban-player-defect-since-wbchttps://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-who-yariel-rodriguez-star-reliever-chunichi-dragons-set-become-second-cuban-player-defect-since-wbc

MFS62 Mar 28 2023 11:04 AM Re: WBC 2023--We'll Be Seeing You Later

ABC morning news showed the USA beating Cuba on the news crawl at the bottom of the screen this morning. Either the news director is really proud or it was a slow sports news day. Later

A Boy Named Seo Mar 28 2023 11:11 AM Re: WBC 2023--We'll Be Seeing You Later

what sport?

Edgy MD Mar 28 2023 11:13 AM Re: WBC 2023--We'll Be Seeing You Later

I don't know why you're asking. Dial that phone!

[Edgy MD]

Frayed Knot wrote: Annnnnnnd, we should point out, that this wasn't one run to WIN the game merely to extend it so a second (or third or fourth) run held importance as well. Then throw in that the USA were NOT the home team so scoring one but only one run STILL would have left them with less than 50/50 odds of winning the game. Advantage: Not Bunting (or H & R)

Well, let's see that win expectancy chart.



Lastly, how do I get this gig? Like, seriously.



Also, was the infield in or back?

[A Boy Named Seo]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Ben Verlander also has a crush on my crush so now I'm just not that into him https://twitter.com/BenVerlander/status/1633325379237855238

So, my first WBC crush has apparently defected from Cuba, terminated his contract in NPB and wants to sign with an MLB team. He worked as a reliever with the Dragons. His stuff was good. He's about to turn 26 and in 3 seasons in Japan, he pitched to a 3.03 ERA and 9.7 K/9 (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rodrig000yarbaseball-ref). Of all the teams who could use an experienced international reliver with who throws mid-to-high 90s with high spin rate wicked breaking balls NOW!!!!, I'd say it's your New York Mets. Shall I call Steve?



news link --> https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-who-yariel-rodriguez-star-reliever-chunichi-dragons-set-become-second-cuban-player-defect-since-wbchttps://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-who-yariel-rodriguez-star-reliever-chunichi-dragons-set-become-second-cuban-player-defect-since-wbc

[MFS62]

ABC morning news showed the USA beating Cuba on the news crawl at the bottom of the screen this morning.

Either the news director is really proud or it was a slow sports news day.



Later

[A Boy Named Seo]

what sport?

[Edgy MD]

I don't know why you're asking. Dial that phone!