Reintroducing the NHOP!

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's right. NHOP isn't sophisticated enough to account for head-to-head play and at this point, with three out of seven of the remaining games falling into that category, the skew of the number becomes more extreme.



Here's the updated postseason possibility chart. Things are coming into more focus. I have the Mets ahead of the Braves because they currently lead the season series.



In the race for the second N.L. Wild Card, the Padres lead the Phillies by 2.5 games and have a Magic Number of 7. Padres need to finish with a better record because the Phillies won the season series.



If the Mets win the division, their most likely NLDS opponent would be the winner of a Cardinals-Phillies series. And if they don't, they'll probably host the Padres in the Wild Card series while the Cardinals-Phillies winner would go to L.A.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Gwreck]

Should it matter for WS home field advantage:



Mets are 5 games behind the Astros, and do not have the tiebreaker, meaning they need to finish 1 game ahead. With 7 games remaining, this is likely a lost cause.



Mets are +1.5 over the Yankees. Too early to calculate the applicable tiebreaker (intradivison record).



Mets have clinched a better record than any other potential AL playoff team.

[Gwreck]

One correction to above: the Giants have been eliminated.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Giants can still win 84 games, which would be one more than the Phillies' current total. They're on the brink, but still in it.

[Gwreck]

Oops! The MLB.com standings page is listing the Giants as eliminated in the Wild Card race.

[Frayed Knot]

fwiw, Baseball Prospectus puts the odds of the Mets winning the NLE at 60/40 (or, more accurately, 60.6/39.4) as they project the Mets to finish with a record

of 101.3 & 60.7 while the Braves stumble to 100.7 & 60.3



Yeah, they get a little numbers happy over there.







BB-Ref, meanwhile, favors the Braves to the tune of 70/30, so gofigger.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Baseball Reference has the Braves with a 69.3% chance of winning the division, with a record of 101.4 and 60.6 and the Mets with a record of 100.8 and 61.2.

[metsmarathon]

fangraphs projects the mets to have either a 62.7% chance to win the division based on their own preseason fangraphs player projections, a 51.5% chance based on season to date stats, and a 58.5% chance based on "coin flip"



The met's having the current edge in tie-breaker scenarios is where most of the difference lies.



per fangraphs projections, the mets and braves finish with 101.2 and 101.0 wins apiece. per season-to-date, they project to 101.0 and 101.4 wins apiece (edge to braves, but for the tiebreakers), and exactly 100.5 wins apiece on coin-flips. again, tie breakers favor the mets.



so... our team's destiny is in their own hands here. let's hope they don't luis castillo it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

=Gwreck post_id=108880 time=1664372611 user_id=56]
Mets are +1.5 over the Yankees. Too early to calculate the applicable tiebreaker (intradivison record).

[Edgy MD]

This thread keeps making me think about former Marlin Burke Badenhop.



In fact, with a few more initials, you can name your stat after him. It could be your PECOTA!



https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/besAAOSwonVg3-jw/s-l500.jpg>

[Benjamin Grimm]

Two Very Happy Outcomes tonight: Mets win, Braves lose. That's all that matters anymore.



Mets will begin their series in Atlanta with a one-game lead. They can win the East without any outside help by taking one game in Atlanta and then sweeping the Nationals at Citi Field. If they win two games in Atlanta their Magic Number will drop to 1, and the Braves would have to count on a double sweep in the final series of the season: Nationals over the Mets and Braves over the Marlins.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

So if the ...



-- Mets win 0 games in Atlanta they'll then have to play 3 better than the Braves in the final series [Mets = W-W-W, Braves = L-L-L] in order to

win the division, a scenario which has about a 1.4% chance of happening if you give the two better teams a 60% chance of winning each game.



-- if the Mets win One game in ATL then all they have to do is play even (or better) than the Braves in the final series. Advantage Mets



-- if the Mets win two games vs ATL then they clinch with a single NYM win and/or ATL loss in the final series [fix't]

THIS is the big advantage that tonight's reversal of fortune earned us.



-- and if the Mets sweep all three in Georgia then obviously that's a clinch too.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

Two wins in Atlanta wouldn't clinch. It would leave the Mets with a two-game lead with three to play, and a Magic Number of 1. To win the division, the Braves would then have to sweep the Marlins and hope that Washington sweeps the Mets.

[Frayed Knot]

Y'know, that's how I had it but then for some reason I changed it.

Lesson in all this kids: don't drink and calculate.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Twins and the White Sox have been eliminated. Giants and Orioles still hanging in there. Brewers only a half game behind the Phillies. (Phillies hold the tie-breaker advantage.)

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets can win the division with as few as 99 wins if they beat the Braves once and the Marlins then sweep the Braves next week.



They can finish second with as many as 101 wins, under a few different scenarios.



If they can get to 102, they win the division.

[Willets Point]

This is a big change from last season when it only took 88 wins to win the NL East. This season there could be as many as 3 teams with 88 or more wins in the NL East.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: So if the ... -- Mets win 0 games in Atlanta they'll then have to play 3 better than the Braves in the final series [Mets = W-W-W, Braves = L-L-L] in order to win the division, a scenario which has about a 1.4% chance of happening if you give the two better teams a 60% chance of winning each game. -- if the Mets win One game in ATL then all they have to do is play even (or better) than the Braves in the final series. Advantage Mets -- if the Mets win two games vs ATL then they clinch with a single NYM win and/or ATL loss in the final series [fix't] THIS is the big advantage that tonight's reversal of fortune earned us. -- and if the Mets sweep all three in Georgia then obviously that's a clinch too.

Basically there only one scenario (Mets win 1 game) where there is any chance that either team can realistically take it. All other outcomes the division is basically over.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And I suspect that that's probably the most likely outcome. (Mets winning one of three.)

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And I suspect that that's probably the most likely outcome. (Mets winning one of three.)

Why so? Max Fried is tough, but we have our top three lined up.

[Willets Point]

I expect Mets winning 2 of 3 is most likely

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mariners have moved into the Second Wild Card, ahead of the Rays. Blue Jays have clinched a Wild Card and as a result, the Orioles can no longer get the First Wild Card. The Brewers had a chance to bump the Phillies out of the Third slot, but lost to the Marlins last night and therefore remain a half game behind.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Marlins and Nationals, the two teams that are playing the Braves and the Mets next week, are currently playing the Brewers and Phillies. They're in a position to affect two different races over the next week.

[Edgy MD]

I tend to think that teams at the bottom of the standings can get themselves up to play their best and act as spoiler in the last weeks, but not in series after series.



The Cubs and the Marlins can hurt two or three teams in a row, but I have trouble thinking the Nats or the Bucs will.



I don't want that to read as overconfident or nothing. All respect to the Nats. Spirit of Frank Robinson, hear me now.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, the first game in Atlanta didn't go well. Not sure what to make of the NHOP number. As noted previously, the number makes less sense when there's a large proportion of head-to-head games remaining.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

So now neither team can clinch during this series ... though both can still come close.



-- if the Mets win 0 games in Atlanta they'll then have to play 3 better than the Braves in the final series [Mets = W-W-W, Braves = L-L-L] in order to

win the division, a scenario which has about a 1.4% chance of happening if you give the two better teams a 60% chance of winning each game in

their final series.



-- if the Mets win One game in ATL then all they have to do is play even (or better) than the Braves in the final series. Advantage Mets



-- if the Mets win two games vs ATL then they clinch with a single NYM win and/or ATL loss in the final series



--[CROSSOUT] and if the Mets sweep all three in Georgia then obviously that's a clinch too.[/CROSSOUT]





What's obvious from the current situation is how huge the gap is between winning one game vs two.

Edge still in our favor, just not as dramatically as a couple hours ago.

[Benjamin Grimm]

All three of the American League Wild Cards have been established... all that's left is determining how they'll be seeded. All three are expansion teams. That may happen in the National League as well if we end up with Mets-Padres-Brewers.



The Orioles have now been eliminated. Giants still in it, but barely. The Astros have locked up the top seed, so the division winners will be seeded as Astros-Yankees-Guardians. The National League will also have its division winners ranked as Western-Eastern-Central.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Edgy MD]

Man, the O's dream will have to be deferred.

[Frayed Knot]

So it basically all comes down to tomorrow, the third in a row of 'most important game of the season'.



If the Braves win it's essentially over.

But if the Mets win the advantage falls back to us, although to a lesser extreme.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Nothing good to report here, unless you hate the Giants. They're now officially eliminated from postseason contention.



After tonight's game, the NHOP number will start to make more sense again. It will be 1.000 if the Braves win, meaning that all six remaining games have to go the Mets' way. It will be .500 if the Mets win, which is a much better number.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]