Reintroducing the NHOP!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Reintroducing the NHOP! It's like the IHOP, but with fewer varieties of pancake syrup.



It stands for Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage. For the Mets to finish ahead of the Braves, things have to go the Mets' way in 47.1 percent of the games that the two teams have remaining on the schedule. This doesn't include the fact that winning one of the remaining head-to-head games would clinch the season series and reduce the magic number by two. That won't be factored in until and unless it actually happens. The Mets have already won the season series against the Phillies and Cardinals, so those magic numbers have been accordingly reduced by one. The Padres have won the season series against the Mets, with Dodgers and Brewers still to be determined.



These numbers tell us that while the division and the first-round bye (the Mets would have to meet their NHOP against both the Braves and the Cardinals for the bye) are very much up for grabs, it remains extremely likely that the Mets will at least make the Wild Card series, and probably with the home-field advantage.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[MFS62]

We've been so Cards and Cubs-centric that I'd forgotten that Milwaukee has been back in the NL for 25 years.

D'oh!



Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

In Sunday's action, we had three Happy Outcomes and four Unhappy Outcomes, although one of the four Unhappies actual counts as a Happy, since it involved the Cardinals beating the Braves.



Happy Outcomes: Padres, Phillies, Braves lose.

Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lose, Brewers, Dodgers, Cardinals win.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[whippoorwill]

This might be a little above me

[Benjamin Grimm]

Four Unhappy Outcomes yesterday, wins by the Dodgers, Cardinals, Padres, and Brewers, and only one Happy Outcome: A loss by the Phillies.



Mets and Braves were idle.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

Good news/Bad news days in the not so distant future for NHOP as seven ATL/PHI games* will provide a guaranteed even mix of Happy/Unhappy results.



* 3 in Cobb County, GA Sep 16-18; 4 in Philly Sep 22-25

[Benjamin Grimm]

I suspect that by September 22 the Phillies will have fallen off this list.



At least I hope so!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Four Happy Outcomes yesterday, losses by the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, and Cardinals.

Three Unhappy Outcomes: Loss by the Mets, wins by the Dodgers and Padres.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Fman99]

I'm confused by the magic number - shouldn't the Dodgers have the lowest one? Followed by each of the next best teams by record (ATL, etc)?

[Benjamin Grimm]

All of the Magic Numbers are from the Mets' perspective. The Magic Number for the Mets to finish ahead of the Dodgers is 43.



The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is only 25.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Only two Happy Outcomes yesterday, the win by the Mets and the loss by the Dodgers.

Five Unhappy Outcomes, as the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Brewers all won. But because the Mets won, all of the Magic Numbers have decreased and so have the NHOPs.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Lefty Specialist]

Things get real when the magic number gets into the 20's.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And the Magic Number for the postseason will soon be in the teens.

[Fman99]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: All of the Magic Numbers are from the Mets' perspective. The Magic Number for the Mets to finish ahead of the Dodgers is 43. The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is only 25.

Thanks, that makes more sense.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yesterday's action had three Happy Outcomes: Wins by the Mets and losses by the Dodgers and Brewers, and one Unhappy Outcome, a win by the Braves. The Cardinals, Phillies, and Padres were idle.



The Mets' win over the Dodgers clinched the season series, which reduced the Mets' Magic Number over the Dodgers by three, to a still likely unattainable 38.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets play at only a .400 pace the rest of the way (12-18) the Brewers would have to go at least 27-5 (.844) to bump the Mets out of the postseason.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Friday's Happy Outcomes: A win for the Mets and losses for Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers.

Unhappy Outcomes: Wins for the Padres, Braves, and Cardinals.



The NHOP for the Dodgers has now dropped to .600, and the NHOP over the Brewers is all the way down to .267; this is the one that will get the Mets officially into the postseason. That Magic Number is only 16.



Meanwhile, the Padres have moved ahead of the Phillies for the second Wild Card slot.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Only two Happy Outcomes yesterday: Losses by the Phillies and the Padres. Five Unhappy Outcomes: The Mets lost and the Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, and Brewers all won.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Three Happy Outcomes yesterday: Losses by the Phillies, Brewers, and Padres.

But four Unhappy Outcomes: Loss by the Mets, and wins by the Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers.



The good news, such as it is, is that the consolation prize of the Wild Card berth is drawing closer. Magic Number for the postseason is down to a mere 15, with 27 games remaining.



The NHOP over the Braves has now risen to .500, meaning that the Mets no longer have an advantage there.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Three Happy Outcomes on Monday, losses by the Cardinals, Padres, and Dodgers.

One Unhappy Outcome, a win by the Brewers.



Mets were idle due to a rainout, Braves and Phillies weren't on the schedule.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Things are not trending well here!



Six Unhappy Outcomes yesterday: A loss by the Mets and wins by the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Dodgers.

Only one Happy Outcome: A loss by the Brewers.



So the only good news is that the Mets are a little bit closer to clinching a Wild Card spot, but unfortunately, a little bit closer to needing to do that.



The NHOP over the Braves has jumped to .519, meaning that the Mets now need more things to go right than wrong in games played by both teams.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Three Happy Outcomes yesterday: Two wins by the Mets and a loss by the Brewers

Five Unhappy Outcomes, as the Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Padres all won.



The NHOP over Atlanta is still above .500, dropping from .519 to .510.



The Mets' Magic Number over Milwaukee is down to 11. The Mets have a 15-game lead over the Brewers, so even though the division title is very much in jeopardy, a spot in the postseason is all but certain.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Two Happy Outcomes yesterday, losses by the Phillies and Cardinals.



And two Unhappy Outcomes, a pair of wins by the Brewers.



Mets, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres were idle.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Willets Point]

To be honest, the only happy outcomes I care about are Mets wins, Braves losses, and Dodgers losses (and Yankees losses!).

[Frayed Knot]

Sure, but those other teams do represent our safety net so can't be totally ignored until those individual magic numbers are safely put to bed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Happy Outcomes: Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers lose.

Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lose, Braves, Phillies, Padres win.



The loss by the Brewers, at least, inches the Mets closer to clinching a postseason spot.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

And "inching" is exactly the pace at which they're moving.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Three Happy Outcomes yesterday: A win by the Mets and losses by the Braves and the Padres.

Four Unhappy Outcomes: Wins by the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, and Dodgers.



The Magic Number over the Brewers, which is the one that gets the Mets into the playoffs, is down to 9. The Mets have a 14-game lead with 22 to play.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Three Happy Outcomes on Sunday, with a win by the Mets and a loss by the Braves being the Happiest of them. Plus a loss by the Padres.

Four Unhappy Outcomes: Wins by the Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Brewers.



Nevertheless, we see drops across the board in the Magic Numbers due to the Mets winning. The NHOP over the Braves once again drops below the .500 mark.



And even if the Mets were to lose all 21 of their remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 14-7 to keep the Mets out of the postseason. We can probably expect the Mets to clinch a playoff spot within the next seven to ten days. They can even do it by Friday if all the pieces fall into place.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Lefty Specialist]

Point of order.



It's possible to clinch a better record than St. Louis and yet not have a first-round bye (by virtue of the fact that they're potentially a wild-card team).